economists getting our arms around for what it means for the potential outs put for this year and next year and last year for that matter. in that case, you have a significant increase in potential output, but you've got more supply, but the people come in and they work and have jobs and spend. you've got demand and there may be it may be inflationary or deflation natural rights approach over a longer period. >> you're not really considering rate increases if growth is higher and you're not considering rate increases and are you more worried about causing the economy to slow too much than you are about inflation taking off again? >> no, i think we believe our policy stands in a good place and is appropriate to the current situation.

we believe it's restrictive. liz: hi, everyone. you're watching the "claman countdown" on fox business. the markets are soaring after the federal reserves held rates steady for the sixth meeting in a row and chair jerome powell pushed back on the idea of rate hikes and answered questions from financial reporters. let's go back there live. >> employment about 4% and feels like a steady state and 3% inflation and if the data remains the same you're see asking you don't see a rate hike and stands to reason for rate hike and 2% inflation and any discussion about a hike in today's meeting. are you satisfied with 3% inflation for the rest of the year?

>> of course, we're not satisfied with 3% inflation. 3% can't be in a sentence with satisfied. we'll return inflation to 2% over time. but overtime .x we think our policy stance is appropriate to do that. if we were to conclude that policy is not sufficiently working to bring it down, that's what it would take for us to want to increase inflation. we don't see evidence of that. >> was there discussion about a rate hike at all? >> the policy focus has been on -- really has been on what to do about the current level of restriction. that's really -- that's part of the policy, for the policy discussion in the meeting. >> on the 3%, is there a time frame of persistent inflation that would trigger a rate hike? >> these will be judgment calls and clearly restrictive monetary

policy needs more time to do its job. that's pretty clear based on what we're seeing. >> hi, victoria with politico. you talked about commitment to being political and nonpartisan and given it's an election year, is the bar for rate changes higher closer to an election and similarly is there a significant economic difference between starting to cut in se september versus december? >> we're always going to dot right thing for the economy when we come to that consensus few when it's the right thing for the economy. we're not looking at anything and he wills hard enough to get the economics right here and these are it would reduce the

likely food of the economics right. we're at piece over it. we know we'll do what we think is the right thing and that's how everybody around here thinks and so i can't say it enough that we just don't go down that road and how do you stop? we're not on that road, we're on the road serving all the american people and making our decisions based on the data and how those data affect the outlook and the balance of ri risks. >> is there a significant difference between this? >> there's a significant institution that takes into act for all the political -- account for all the significant differences and we just don't do that. you can go back and read the transcripts for everything.

this is my fourth presidential election year and read all the transcripts and see if anybody mentions in any way pending election. >> the labor market is jolting the data and going back to pre-pandemic levels and one thing that hasn't normized is wage growth and still quite a bit stronger than before the pandemic. why is that happening? a lag indicator or something else going on? >> going back to wages peaking, increasing at three years ago and all wage measures and coming down substantially to that. but they're not, not down to where they were before the pandemic and roughly a percentage point higher.

we've seen pretty consist progress and not uniformly and eci reading from tuesday was expected to be to have come downtown and was flat year over year and roughly we don't target wage increases and in a longer run, if there's wage increases running higher than productivity would want, then, you know, there'll be inflationary pressures and employers will raise prices over time if that's the case. we've seen progress and it's been inconsistent, but we've seen a substantial decline overall but there's a ways to go on that .

>> wages are up and car loans and credit cards and people look to borrow are very discouraged and that's their view of the economy. what would you say to them? >> the thing that hurts everybody in particular is people in the lower income brackets is inflation and all the things you buy and fundamentals of life go up in price, you are in trouble right away and with those people in particular, we're using our tools to bring down inflation and we'll take time to succeed and bring inflation back down to 2%. don't have to worry about it now and it's incon convenient and

there's dividends paying in the longer wage and everyone was sharing this to the public and think about core headline, core pce >> monetary policy doing what it's supposed to do but it's also in this case unusually reason why we're having this conversation and bottlenecks and

shutting down and reopening of the economy and other things that raise demand and supply and demand and pandemic and response and along with restrictive monetary policy and they're working to bring down inflation and we've made a lot of progress. let's remember there's not work to do and we're not looking at high inflation rates we were seeing two years ago. >> the long awaited disinflation and shelter and it's not arrived and two questions and how do you explain the substantial lags between some of the private sector data we're seeing and how

confident are you that rents will be helpful on inflation in the coming months? >> there's a number of places in the economy and lag in the inflation process and housing is one of them and when you have, when you >> market rent trust worthies barely going up and inflation is very low and takes -- and before that they were incredibly high and led the high part. rents for tenants rolling over the leases and landlords don't tend to charge as much of an increase to a rollover tenant for whatever reason and what

that does is builds up a sort of unrealized portion of increases when there's big increases and laggards are longer than before at the beginning and confident in the timing and expect that had this will happen? >> thank you, chair powell. seems over the past three or four years economies and central banks in developed market lease are more or less on the same market trajectory with easing of the pandemic and trajectories

and central bank policies and does f1c? >> we're countries considering rate cuts and not having the kind of growth we're having and they have their inflation is performing about like ours or a little better and not experiencing the kind of growth we're experiencing and we have the luxury of having strong growth in a strong labor market for low unemployment and high job creation and all of that and we can be patient and we'll be careful and cautious as we approach the decision to cut rates and i think other jurisdictions may go before that and in terms of implications, i

think markets and economies can adapt to it and i think you know, we haven't seen an addition for emerging market economy and haven't seen the turmoil that was more frequent 20 years ago or 30 years ago and >> you back #-d away -- you backed away on the notion that the economy was backing down and given the sticky inflation data in the first quarter, can disinflation happen along relatively painless path for the economy or is some softening in

the labor market and economy likely needed to bring inflation back down? >> i think we thought in -- and most people thought there was probably significant dig locationing ands happening to get inflation down from the very high levels it was@the very beginning of the episode and that didn't happen and tremendous result of very gratified police that didn't happen and dynamics that didn't enable that and it was the unwinding of things with the monetary policy and distortions of the economy and supply side problems and also some demand issues as well. i'm not giving up on that and it's possible that those forces will still work to help us bring inflation down. we can't be guaranteed that's

true though so we're trying to use our tools in a way that keeps the labor market strong strong and the economy strong but also helps bring inflation back down to 2% sustain blizzard warnings we'll bring it down sustain blizzard warnings and hope we'll do it without significant dislocation ntsb labor market. >> the job market and that could be a reason to cut rates and unemployment rate were to tick above 4% but inflation not back down to your 2% target, how would you look at that? would the unemployment rate popping back above 4% catch your attention? >> the way i characterize it and going to define exactly what i mean and had to be meaningful leading us to go to the labor market and going for us to react and couple of intents in the

labor market and probably not doing that and it'll be a broader thing and it would suggest and would be appropriate to consider whether you decide to cut will depend on that service and not just that one. >> chair powell, thank you for taking the question. the banker and broadened matematerials are changing for e game three of proposal and reproposal is something that's on the table and had more time to be with the public commentary and going to understand the disaster and options available to you and better sense of a proposal is necessary and a time line in mind for when some proposal is made.

>> yeah, the fed is committed to pleading the process and carrying out the end game in a way that's faithful to bosel and the other large jurisdictions are doing and we haven't head any decisions on policy or on process at all. >> other parts of the regulatory agenda or continue to make progress on those and agenda items. >> there's a me can rale rule in place but i'd say the process is by far the most important thing and really is occupying us at this time in terms of what we're moving ahead with.

>> mark for the last question. >> thank you. i'm with bank rate and what can you tell us about the approach you take with your role in sense of trying to achieve consensus? what ewe regreenly identified as priority while allowing for range of views or even dissent. we don't see many descending votes in the official statements even when more spirited discussions are note in the minutes after the fact and how do you avoid group think and avoid a higher risk of policy and listen to my 18 colleagues on the line and you'll see that we do not lack for diversity of voices and you want a great aspect 12 reserve banks and going with the staff and not the people that work here at boarder and different people and so each reserve bank has its own culture

around monetary policy and own approach and that kind of thing. guarantees you a diversity of perspective and makes you think and all i can say from my standpoint and i try and listen carefully to people and incorporate their thinking and doing everything i can to incorporate their thinking into what we're doing and many people feel that's happening and going against the rules or anything like that and jurisdiction the way things come out and i think it's a very diverse group of people and more diverse in the mentions and more diverse from

the obvious gender and demographic ways but we have more people not phg economists and business and law and academia and things like that and you have quite a goody verse perspective and i think all of us read these stories and say i don't really understand what they're talking about. i get the question. thank you very much. liz: well, federal reserve chair jay powell pretty much douses talk of interest rate hike amid stubborn inflation and bulls are soaring on doveish wings and we need you to take a look at major averages here and we've got the dow up 456 and nasdaq up 237 and s&p up 48 and russell up 35. that's the biggest percentage gainer there of just about one and three quarters percent and if you pull up inter-days and it's the granularity here and

see around 2:41 p.m. eastern and the big spike in the dow had high top 530 points and up 446 and remember, this is just a day after the dow endured the worst session in special teams 13 months. same pattern for s&p and nasdaq and powell is not thinking about a rate height sticking but a heightening. >> the next move would be a rate hike, it's unlikely and policy is focused on how long to keep policy restrictive. we'd need evidence this is not restrictive bring it down to 2% over time and that's not what we're seeing as i mentioned and that's something like that as we'd take and look at totality of data and answer that question

and including inflation, inflation expectations and all the other data too. liz: okay, that relieved and calmed the markets and look at moves in treasury yields. at first the two-year popped up 11 basis points and right now it's reversed down 6.3 at 4.971%. i want to tell you that two year pulled back and at 6.436% and yesterday at 4.68% and we're coming a bit down from that. that indicates that it's not so much that rates are going to be cut. he didn't say that but rates won't go higher. let's look at spot gold prices and now gold has been an interesting move here. it is powering higher by $24 just off the high of the session and there's so many over issues that we want to talk about but

before we do, i need to show you the big semiconductor stocks and major drops going on and advanced micro-devices down 7.1% and amd swamping microchip darling nvidia off the lows of the session and down 1.5% and arm that provides architecture upon which just about every semi-manufacturer uses to customize their chips is down about 3.13% and all having to do with advanced micro-devices and tepid outlook from the earning ands powell's pun and have we are going to look through it and pull it apart and find out exactly what it means for borrowing costs going forward. joining me now, morgan stanley superior vice president, jim camp and andy brenner. i'm going to throw it to you. the big question here is did powell do the right thing by saying there is not going to be a rate hike as our next move,

even though, and we'll hear this coming up, our own edward lawrence pushed them saying we're at 3% inflation. how do i get down to 2% without tightening rates one more time. i don't want to be there but the dove in wolves' clothing was evident and the marketplace was 70% certain and going to be hawkish and going to raise rates on the first claim of rational to ease rates and he will and a bull flattening to now a bull steeping and when it opens tomorrow, i think we'll get our real move and for now we saw five years better and one point by 12 basis points and now

probably as you said better by six or seven. liz: cycle through some of the charts and i don't care what they are, the vicks or oil. by the way it's really markettedly retrenched and some is the inventory numbers and commodity prices coming down on all this. bring in jim lear la camp, you'e stock investment guy and powell swatted back on everything from a rate hike to stagflation. suddenly everybody is talking about stagflation and you actually think that we're in that at the moment. can you sort of justify that somehow? >> we're sitting on the precipice of it, liz. the gdp at 1.6% was stall speed and worse than it looks because a lot of gdp report includes government spending and l powell pointed football games jobs market and they were part-time

jobs and went to foreign-born workers and the outlook isn't near as good when you start breaking it down for consumers and from strap and rates plummeted and i think the economy is plotting along and -- liz: jim, i have to push you on this. different than stagflation. 1980s stagflation and unemployment at 7.5% and inflation around 14.5% and that's not this. >> if you calculated inflation now, the way you did it back then and if you didn't have all this government spending and the single biggest industry of job growth in the united states and going over the job and last $20 million of growth and we got it cost us $1.5 trillion this. is not a sustainable model. is it keeping us above some sort of recession right now and maybe

bad and 1.6 gdp and going for a difficult time maintaining this level. liz: let me show you how hard jay powell would push back on any kind of stagflation and listen to this. andy, i'll let you respond first. >> i don't see the stag or the flation honestly. i was around for stagflation and it was 10% unemployment and it was going for inflation and very slow growth and right now we have 3% growth, which is pretty solid growth i would say by any measure and we have inflation running under 3% and i don't really understand where that's coming from. liz: okay, andy, let's just say that's true. what's the rate cut and when does that happen?

>> talk ago moment ago. oil is down 9% in the last three weeks. you can call for this and the moving afternoon and inflation is coming down and it'll come down faster and city banks and lower ra rates in june can't han and if we get two weak unemployment numbers or three till the end of july, the fed will ease rates in that willed in the markets and one out of five in july and only one rate cut for december and i don't think they'll be cutting more than that and i'll stand by that. liz: watching july at 24% and september barely at 50%. barely. november is more like, i don't know, 50, 60% but that said jim, what's the best trade no matter what the tape says?

>> the reason we had a bifurcated market and stocks leading the market and not done back and the weak from the chaff here and it's earnings growth and you've got to stay with earnings growth and we've seen these artificial intelligent stocks in the semiconductor pullback and they've had such a big win and consolidation was probably necessary and should have been expected. that said, the earnings growth is still there and ilike data centers and more that are provided with the artificial intelligence and you can play some of the commodity related areas of energy and energy is very volatile and it's trading at $26 and $92 ban and these energy companies are doing very well in the environment and have a good hedge for portfolios loaded up in tech and going with

energy on the side of that. liz: i think so. we're watching it all and remember, no matter what happens and outside the tape, don't fight the fed and the fed says no rate hike, but also don't get all geeked up for a rate cut. andy and jim lecamp, great to have you. check the dow up 447 points and fox market alert. look at fear gaits and this morning -- ga gates and i was checking and marking and it was up, the vicks up about eight tenths of a percent and see complete reversal here and concern of the fear on the market and dow joins off the high of the session and gain of 5 # 3 and about 500 points off that and s&p gaining 1% and nasdaq now up 204 points and yesterday the nasdaq lost 325 and haven't erased all of the losses and russell 2,000 i mentioned doing the best on percentage basis and let me

explain. the russell, those are small and mid caps they need to borrow the most money to grow and per happen as relief thinking that borrow r rating while still at 20-year highs and won't at least go higher and that's what jay powell said. there's still big losers on the session and take a look at starbucks. , down about 16.13%. and s&p 500 at bottom after reporting a drop in same sales and they cut the annual sales forecast and this is where we'll see inflation dinging the consumer and are they paying for that $7 vent i caramel mack ya toe half calf or whatever it is you pay for. weak demand. that's what's happening and consumers maybe are starting to feel the weight of inflation and are pulling back accordingly.

the latest reports from kraft heinz and yum brands are indicating that and their brands, oscar meyer and jell-o and philadelphia lunchables, missed revenue expectations for the first quarter and going less of the premium lunch combos and stocks down 4.13% and this may be an obvious question and you don't really know because spending is still happening and is the consumer, and that means anybody that eats, buys clothes and possibly even a house about to really crack? get right to the floor show. meredith whitney founder and ceo of meredith whitney adviser group is here .x0% ra rates in e nostalgic rates and get used to costs high and not higher and government stimulus gifted to americans during the lockdowns and mostly vaporized and what do you see on the economic horizon?

start with that. >> consumer spending going to stay public constant and see the market really divided so starbucks surprises me and i don't know what demographics shop there and i assume it's mass demographics and they're really feeling it. what's ironic is that anol says i've been doing and -- analysis i've been doing and publishing recently took me by surprise to the extent that we think in the country all the wealth is with homeowners and that's true and their asset rich and cash -- increasingly cash poor and cost of services is the biggest inflationary factors and plieses

up 26% in the last three years and more in some areas and less in some areas and homeowners insurance has gone up dramatically in the state of florida. that's really, really start feeling the punch and bulk of homeowners in the boomer category and 56% of homeowners and you see that group actually borrowing more and american express had investor day yesterday and they had to focus on millennials and gen zs and call this group the avocado tasters and it's people between 24-38 and commonality is they don't own homes and not burdened by the high servicing costs and they're spending in growth is 5-1, the boomers. so you see strength and weakness and can't cash it down and it's pushing it up.

liz: some would be alarmed and however you're looking at consumer spending that remains healthsy and is there anything worrisome you see about consumer behavior that may indicate a bigger problem? >> i'm so glad you brought that up. people talk about the fact that credit card debt is 1.2 trillion and that's as nice as it's been and look at rate of consumer spending and grown at a fraction of consumer spending and they've taken on a lot less debt relative to what they're spending over the last 10-15 years so it's high on a nominal level and growth basis and probably growing for sure and it's not still alarming and credit quality still strong and

going for customers and credit quality challenges in the areas and the prime customer is still doing well listening to ultimately at companies and all the ceos and they're telling us that credit quality is good and consumer is strong and the consumer is stretched and that's for sure. they're spending a lot and most consumers are spending less and one in five of the avocado toaster men live at home with their parents and don't have that burden of paying rent. but because they're strained and spending less they're not spending. liz: what about this, meredith, wages. that was an issue that was tackled during the news conference and it jumped out at team "claman countdown" because at some point, wages, if you quell inflation, may have to go done and had been coming up and

employees were demanding higher wagings because of inflation. here's what jay powell said about wages and then i'll get you to react on what you might see when it comes to maybe them dipping deeper into credit debt. >> we don't target wanes but price inflation and it's one of the inputs and point with wages is of course we like everyone else like to see high wages but we also want to see them not eaten up by high inflation and that's what we're trying to do is to cool the economy and work with what's happening on the supply side to bring the economy back to 2% inflation, part of that will probably be having wage increases move down incrementally toward levels that are more sustainable. liz: that means people will make less again.

>> the rate of wage growth goes down but not higher as fast as they can and labor shortage and going for the country and it'll keep wages persistently high and to areas like healthcare and the area and there's no possible way wages can come down. but the big wage advance over the last two years is in the rear-view mirror and busy day and points in the paints of the high up about 317 and going to see you individual stock stories here and super microcomputer and this is the high fl flyer and gg 13.13% and a beat on the third quarter earning ands missed on revenue and cummers and that's a

good problem to have and not the worst in the world but it's hurting the stock right now and pulling back by $114-$744 and change. skywork solutions and it's problematic and down 14%. sharply in the red after reporting a second quarter beat on both the top and bottom lines but forecast for current low and can't get below estimates over demand concerns and what kind of demand and we'll remember this is a big apple supplier and they're struggle to off load inventory amid softer demand in the inventory business and anecdotal evidence that smart phone sales and smart phone sales in china not as robust going for them to go on and ceo

andy jazzi saying artificial intention helped boost work sales to $100 billion annual revenue run rate and they're chairing the good news and cvs health corp. crashing at the moment down 16.7%. worst day since november of 2009. we know what was going on in 2009, it's a seasonal crisis and missed on first quarter earning ands cut on the full quart outlook and medical costs in the insurance business to impact operations for the rest of the year. the good one and pfizer's latest earnings report triggered a real turn around in the stock at this hour. looking healthy and hardy with

20 minutes to trade and profit beat and optimistic guidance with sales stumbling year over year and what does pfizer have in the pipeline and going how far. coming up in a fox business exclusive we're joined live by the pfizer ceo and only seeing him on "claman countdown," count go away. dow now up 222. we're coming right back. (grandpa vo) i'm the richest guy in the world. hi baby! (woman 1 vo) i have inherited the best traditions. (woman 2 vo) i have a great boss... it's me. (man 1 vo) i have people, people i can count on. (man 2 vo) i have time to give (grandma vo) and a million stories to share. (grandpa vo) if that's not rich, i don't know what is. (vo) the key to being rich is knowing what counts.

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liz: shares off session highs and 6.25% and pharma giant recorded a rouge surprise bead in quarter profits and enough for investors to forgive a 20% dip in revenue. pfizer attributed the beat to extremely effective cost cutting measures as well as much smaller than expected dip in sails farce covcovid-19 packs loved d -- paxlovid and pfizer's fumbles

are now in the rear-view mirror. get to the growth story and future of pfizer with ceo albert here on a fox business exclusive. albert, these results are very strong and much of it driven by cost cutting. can you explain because now there's 4 billion cost cutting and slicing and dicing the most. >> no, i'm very happy with the results and starting with very, very good results and it's so great and the results were no lie and beating honest expectations by the sales and we hit way better growth margins and containment and all that resulted in a significant beat in the bottom and that was very significant and moving ahead for us it's just continued executing in the five things you could have done and making it this

year and the change in acquisition is for covid. we did what we did with covid and we're proud to say the world and going behind us now and and once more with the oncology. liz: oncology, specifically what and including that for blockbuster drugs in the pipeline. >> i think would be blockbuster drugs and more importantly could be there with significant impact and we are having phenomenal performance of the a to z portfolio and the season and one of them that going for them for growth of 164% and that demonstrates how well this money is going for the leads and it's not what they're doing and it's going with the people and going

for the a to z technology and i really think that we'll have that in the survival. liz: that is such music to so many of our viewer's ears at the moment, albert, and props to wonderful people at pfizer and i know how hard they work over years to develop these kinds of drugs and we followed your company for a long, long time and you look at pharma world, particularly in the here and now, the molten core of driving hotter than expected weight loss drugs and there's a weight loss pill in stage three planning fazes and give us an update on that pill. where does it stand and what's working and what's next? >> we have actually three molecules, obesity molecules in humans and they're pheromones and one is different and going in the ready prop to start phase three and awaiting for data on

that and awaiting for the data to convert the molecule from twice a day to once a day and middle of the year and we have that data and make our call for the next development plans for approaching this molecule and emphasizing that pfizer will play is significant role in the obesity market and going to see people at once to lose weight and we believe that we have the science to do it because with the diseases and we're so good for many, many years and we're investing and giving up reservice connected and have abilities and hiding more and more scientists despite the fact it's going to cost in other areas and going for areas that are hiring scientists and that would be able to deliver

solutions even better than the third one. liz: you've got to promise to come back when you have news on that and that's juiced a lot of pharma stocks and eli lily and i have to get you on this and may or may not be an issue at pfizer and issue nationally and that's the shortage of chemotherapy drugs and there's a sad story of beloved high school coach who died because he couldn't get his hands on chemotherapy drugs. what is the answer and how integral is pfizer in trying to help the situation in this country and somehow shake the log jam for people to get hands on life-saving drugs? >> this is a phenomenal -- phenomena we see from time to time and it's a market failure and some of the drugs are very old and the manufacturers and nine of them decided to exit

because they don't make money or lose money and only one remains and something happens in the marketplace and very hard for the one remaining to scale it up. they make sure there's incentives but those medicines will continue being in existence. we have from time to time a issue with services and most of the cases not in the specific category and mentioning some others with the months on the line and it's better. going for them very high and the least time and going for them with the production and traying for eight months to do it. >> we're reacting very, very policy and going confused to remind you and the end of last year and summer approximately and we had big hurricane in north carolina and they're completely and manufacturing was

sprucing phenomenal response to the teams and going for the efforts to put back production and i can tell you right now, it's something that looked like bombarded place and now back in production like it was never stopping. liz: albert bourla of pfizer, thank you very and have we look forward to following the story and the stock is up 6.5% and very close to session highs at the moment. thank you so much. >> thank you. liz: wall street in a per ma bull mode with executives optimistic that the federal reserve will commission a rate cut this year all though, charlie, he didn't give in. federal reserve chair jay powell said nothing. >> i should point out the markets are off their highs. liz: s&p turned negative. put up an intraday you might see that. >> maybe it's hope against hope. maybe it is betting against the

fed, right but i keep hearing from ceo levels they expect two to year. liz: wishful thinking, wishful thinking. >> just telling you what i'm hearing. these people get paid a lot of money for this. they're often, not often but been wrong in the past. they think, okay still will be pushed out until september but they think he wants to do it. one thing we do know, he wants to do it. i mean, that's i think what everybody is saying. jay powell's the type of guy, if you gives you forward guidance he wants to hit that guidance. his forward guidance was essentially a june rate cut. obviously that doesn't look like it will happen in june. it may happen in july, august or september. what they're saying, not me, what they're saying he wants to do one not too close to the election, if they think there is significant progress, remember some of his language they're parsing. you need much more progress to 2% inflation. he said progress, didn't he?

did i get that right? liz: uh-huh. >> progress is not 2%. liz: he said multiple times we will get down to 2%. >> we will, but before we start cutting i think he talked about progress. check the language own that. i think that's what they're hanging their hat on. if he sees progress of us going there. liz: if it mixed with a wobbling jobe market then he might cut. we have a wobbling -- liz: did you see the adp number? >> gdp is slowing down. liz: by the way everybody, friday, we get the april's jobs report. that may solidify or change the whole picture. >> we had a lousy gdp number. there is all sorts of conflicting signals here. bottom line he isly not doing it in june. but they, at least according to the smart money which is wrong, september. that's what, that's what they're telling me. this is people like greg fleming

who i spoke to, you name it, i went down the line, people i know. greg fleming runs the rockefeller fund. these are not hard and fast predictions but what do you think? larry finks of the world. that is what they're pointing to. you could have weird surprise, wicked inflation. if they have progress, if he said progress, that's what they're hanging. we're way off the mice. liz: nasdaq has turned negative. it is down 34 points and falling. we were at the high of the session a gain of 268. >> i saw that. we may end up in the red today. look at this. liz: there is the intraday. that was fun while it lasted. >> i'm glad i brought good news. liz: this is all your fault. federal reserve chair powell gave an upbeat forecast on inflation if you're just joining us. this is how he put it. >> you know the story, what's

happened december, you higher goods inflation and housing inflation, those two are working together to be higher than we thought. my expectation is we will over the course of this year see inflation move back down. that's my forecast. i think my confidence in that is lower than it was because of the data that we've seen. liz: so knowing that, if you believe it, we've got bob doll right now of crossmark global to give us stocks that would do well in that particular atmosphere bob, first of all, how many rate cuts if any at all do you see after hearing what jay powell said? >> at most two as charlie said he wants to lower rates, liz, but he has to get more news on inflation. we can't have bad inflation we had three months in a row otherwise we'll be talking about raising rates. the market breathed a sigh of

relief he is not raising rates. as you point out given it all back. i don't know if the market thought he would talk about rates, rates but he didn't and they have given it all back. the earnings is mixed. liz: a hangover in 57 minutes, they feel yea, no rate hike but no rate cut. bob, what stocks work the best in a scenario we believe, i think it will be just one rate cut if at all but you say two possibly and no hikes? >> yeah. look, you want stocks that have earnings predictability, earnings persistence, good free cash flow characteristics. the three that i served up, ibm, value man's technology stock, had a tough quarter and the stock sold off, giving now a 4% yield. it may be dead money for a while but i think that one will be just fine. cigna in the hmo space, selling

their medicare business which i view as a good thing, very cheap stock, good earnings, free cash flow prospects from here. home depot, i wish the stock were cheaper but people continue to spend money to upgrade their homes even as the economy slows. liz: cigna forward p-e is 12. that is very cheap. i just want to say ibm has had a decent runup this year about 32% f you were annoyed you didn't get it at that point, it is certainly cheaper at this point. bob, do you think that we're looking at an economy that is pretty much cruising to a soft landing still at this point or might it get a little bumpier? >> i think it might get a little bumpier, liz. look, interest rates as we've been talking about are not low and they're biting in certain places, lower end consumers. spending a little less, balking at price increases, tapping their credit cards, some evidence raiding their

401(k)s. high-end consumers we're not seeing it, but i suspect as the months develop, we'll see the economy getting bumpier. liz: do you see any value investing in treasurys or t-bills? two year is below 4.9%. six month at 5.38, sorry, 5.38? >> it's hard not to have some of your portfolio in that part of the market but at some point we'll wake up, rates will be down and go down fast. i would have more of a barbell in my fixed income portion of the portfolio liz. liz: feels like a balance, hence the barbell term. bob, wonderful to see you, thank you very much. well, guys, at least the russell is still up six points and the dow is holding up to 105 points of gains. we have the s&p and nasdaq giving up all the big jump as the fed says no hike but no cut.