soon you can get on board, taylor, might be sooner than you think. they hope to fly passengers by 2029. taylor: grady i would be on one of those flights. mark my words. >> reporter: me too. taylor: 30 seconds to 2:00 p.m. a check on your money, stocks are lower as the fed begins the two-day policy meeting. the biggie after the bell, you guys, amazon results. look for top line revenue to grow 12%. the big focus on the aws segment, that is the more profitable area of the business, higher margins. more big cap roles in. jackie: i can't wait. meantime we send the baton to charles payne. you're in good hands. charles: i got it. thank you very much, i appreciate it. good afternoon, i'm charles payne. this is "making money." breaking now stocking bonds are stumbling on stronger than

expected employment data. there is serious catch. there were other economic reportings that were huge misses. stocks under pressure. as you heard earnings from amazon but not just amazon. semiconductors have led the way. supermicro computer has led the way. nvidia is up 200%. this stock up 700% the last year. we'll obviously preview the fomc meeting, a special guest says jay powell is hapless and dissatisfactory. investing lessons from the movie the naked gown. why have college protests been allowed to get out of control. why americans are real influencers. not just peddling stuff on social media but dictating the control of our own lives. all that and so much more on "making money". ♪. charles: all right, so earnings season stock market leadership was supposed to sway away from the "magnificent seven" to all

the other names. now there are names in tech, but even outside of tech but after stumbling for most of the month, folks, we can see now, well "the magnificent seven," most of these behemoths regained their stride. we saw it last week with tesla. nvidia is looking great. the only one of course still struggling here a little bit is meta. for the most part most of them started a trend a little bit higher here. here's the thing, jpmorgan says the megacap rally is masking a new reality, higher for longer at the federal reserve. remember last summer we started hearing higher for longer the market fell completely apart. indeed there is some truth to this, right. look at the odds. the odds for no rate cuts in 2024. theres were 2% of chance of no rate cuts. we're veering toward 25% chance there won't be anything. that would put tremendous onus on earnings to continue to crush it.

not just for this earnings season but for the rest of the year. the question is, can that happen, can it be done? i have to tell you so far, earnings to be authentic they start higher up on the income statement, right? i always look at the net profits. only six sectors, blue line is the first quarter of 2024, only six of them have really done better than a year ago. info tech up significantly. financials barely. communications services, utilities, believe it or not utilities, then over here consumer discretionary. other than that though we're talking out of 11 sectors only six have seen improvement year over year. if earnings will lead the way it needs to start higher in the income statement in profit margins. that's why all these earnings beats everyone is crowing about, they have been mostly greeted with a bronx cheer or selling pressure. we've been beating but look what happened to these stocks, they have actually gotten hammered. bring in ria advisors cio, lance

roberts. lance, your general thoughts on this earnings season and whether the broad market is ready to grab the rally baton from the "magnificent seven"? >> i think it is interesting, if you go back to that first chart you had on earnings what sectors are the ones creating the most profit margins? it is discretionary, info tech. basically outside of utilities it was your "magnificent seven." amazon makes up a huge chunk of the discretionary sector along with tesla. info tech space it is microsoft, nvidia, apple, those are your big drivers for earnings and really if you take a look at earnings versus those sectors versus the rest of the market, all the earnings growth ask actually coming from that, those "magnificent seven" stocks. everything else is expected flat or even slightly down this year. so you know, again to your point, i see you're seeing "magnificent seven" pick up the reign here. charles: info tech right here. communication services right there, and consumer

discretionary, these are your classic growth sectors. they have been ex-treader narrowly well. every time the market start toes get wobbly they come on a little bit. how important is it for rate cuts this year? because if we don't get the earnings, we don't get the rate cuts, what will sustain this rally? >> a couple things first of all. we talked about before back in october when the market was very negative, we said be careful we're about to have buybacks come back. well this correction we've had the last couple weeks are a function of no buybacks. they have been a blackout. those start next week pretty much in earnest. google announced another 70 billion in buybacks. more than one trillion shares of buybacks this year. that will be, one trillion dollars worth of buybacks this year which is going to be huge. corporations have been almost 100% of the net equity purchases since 2000. so that is going to be a big driver and look the fed is going to cut-rates. the only question is do they do it this year or next year? but the market is pricing in now

that they are going to cut-rates, not nearly as much. they were expecting seven rate cuts before. they're down to one this year. i think the fed at this meeting will hold onto the fact they are going to cut-rates. no more rate hikes from here. i think the market is going to like that. charles: because we have multiple expansion crazy because of seven or eight rate cuts, six rate cuts, three rate cuts, okay maybe one? i want to talk about retail bullishness. it peaked on march 27th. one day before the s&p peaked. it has come down dramatically, down to 32%. bearishness is greater, almost 34% bearishness. historic average is 31%. so the timing seems to be pretty good here with the retail crowd but what changes this? what can make people feel better about this market because the irony is we're not that far off the all-time high? >> that's right. investor sentiment is driven by market prices. we've gone through a 5 1/2% correction. just a couple weeks ago our

composite bullish index was 38. 40 is kind of high as it ever has been. we're right at the peak. we're down to nine in two weeks. all that bullish sentiment is gotten reversed out of the market. that's what you want. negative sentiments, good contrarian indicator and i think we're getting to the point now in another week or so, we're not done with the correction just yet as you see today. once we get through employment on friday and get past apple's earnings on thursday i think this market starts to get a little bit of footing underneath it. charles: hopefully the next couple weeks we'll know a lot more. lance, thanks a lot, appreciate it. >> thank you. charles: my next guest says that last week the momentum factor was not going out without a fight. in fact it held some very pivotal points. here it is, you can see we were starting to come down, held right at this line, go back, we fill ad really big gap here. that seems to be the line. it did put in a pretty good fight. now the question, how does it

get its groove back, how do we move it back up? chief investment officer for john hancock management. emily i read your note this week, tech-heavy weights and key economic things will report. they could be key getting momentum back into gear. what do you see or expect to see? >> charles, absolutely earnings. earnings have been pretty awesome both across the information technology sectors as you pointed to earlier and communication services. we're seeing 30 to 40% year-over-year earnings growth versus about 2% for the broad markets. so there certainly has been some concentration there. the notable element here is the reactions have been so mixed. there was so much good news that was already in the price of a lot of these stocks. we saw the massive momentum trade amongst the fed pivot rally that caused valuations to get pretty heavily stretched here. so i think a little bit of wind

has been let out of sales of some of these companies and we would look to potential rotation of markets as we look at earnings season. look at value stocks, energy stocks that are individualing a pretty significant discount and left out of the momentum rally. charles: i've got technology though, you still like some exposure to tech though, right? >> we still like it. i would think this is like a relationship analogy. so we've been married to technology stocks for a long time. at john hancock we've been overweight tech for about five years now. it is not that we still don't like tech. there is nothing fundamentally wrong with it, earnings are still good but stocks are starting to get a little bit splashy. we like when they were humbled and pe levels were collapsed more than they are today. we like tech. we want to stay in a relationship with it, but it might be time to start to date

around here, look at more cyclical and value parts of market. charles: in other words, when you say dad get as new haircut and convertible, watch out. energy had a good move. this year and it seemed to stalled somewhat t was supposed to break out. the significance of energy with the broad market has declined so much over the last two decades oar so. what will get energy higher? feels like if china's economy isn't booming, then energy, it has something of a ceiling? >> yeah it is a great point. it is a key reason energy is more of a flashy kind of sector that we're dating and not necessarily a long-term marriage because it can really benefit from infly shun hedge. think about the inflation data we got just this morning. eci, the employment cost index coming in hotter than expected. housing prices coming in higher than expected. the fed has a real inflation problem here. looks like stimulus employed in china starting to take hold. we're seeing this modest

reacceleration in inflation, reacceleration in economic growth and that does tend toe benefit for cyclical sectors like energy. we see the macro picture has been really critical to the story around energy. charles: emily, i have a minute to go. let me pick up on that with minute to go. your take on bond investors, maybe you can use tlt. the bond market peaked a long time ago. tlt peaked for years ago. it really at a point if it doesn't hold soon we could really start to break down big time. should bond investors start to be a little uncomfortable here? >> oh, charles. it has been such a rough period for bond investors. we saw the biggest backup in bond yields we have seen in decades. worst drawdown in history of 14% of high quality bonds. that is not supposed to happen. bond is supposed to be the volatility buffer and income producer in portfolios.

the good news of backup in yields, now we have something we haven't had in a long time on bond income yield. yield is 5.3%. that is pretty close to the 20-year high of 6%. we look at this as attractive entity point, a great way for investors to let bonds do more heavy lifting in portfolios, clip that coupon. charles: a long time you could say buy the bonds on the dip. emily, thank you so much, appreciate it. see you soon. >> thank you. charles: folks, amazon up to bat after the closing bell. a lot of folks are saying this will make-or-break the nasdaq rally. my next guest is warning though that time is running out as we enter the sort of sell and go away period, you know, may. we'll see. danielle shay here to give us updates on all the important critical reports right after the bell. we'll be right back. ♪.

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...day to fly. ♪. charles: all right, the intensity is obviously building up. look at the red on your screen. earnings parade after the close will play a major role. simpler vp head of options,

danielle shay. bring folks up to speed. amazon, 84 cents in earnings. here's the thing, folks, the last three times the company reported the stock did extraordinarily well. the day it reported it was up. the week after it was up. the three times before that, exact opposite. it got absolutely hammered. what about the charts? what are charts telling us? it went under the 350 day moving average like other tech names. went back above it, hanging there in pretty good. this stock is poised at least looks to me, danielle, if it breaking through 190 it is off to the races, what are the chances of that? >> charles, i agree with you, amazon has been on a positive trajectory lately and what we've seen with this company there is high likelihood it will trade higher after earnings. we have 13-dollar expected move. we have the previous area of resistance at 190. i think it is highly possible we trade up into 200 and ultimately

by 220 price target but here's the thing, charles, what we've seen with the earnings season the we know the market has very high expectations, so if amazon can't crush it that's when we need to be cautious. charles: right. >> below 165, if we have a bad result, that's where the nasdaq is going to get incredibly dicey. charles: all right. pretty sizable gap to be filled there to the downsize to your point. after that the 50-day moving average is 151. that speaking of huge movers, this is amazing stock up 700ers in the last year. last time they reported earnings, the stock was 35% in one week. a lot of folks that never heard of the company jumped on the bandwagon. four ought of seven times it reported the stock has been higher. this there name does exceedingly well on earnings reports. the chart speaks for itself, up, up, up. one thing it gets severely

overbought but it has never been severely oversold. looks like down here, danielle, it will be a huge mover. we know it will be a huge mover is but in which direction? >> charles, i completely agree with your analysis and people have been buying this stock left and right and everyone wants this company to do well after earnings today but here's the thing, if it doesn't we'll be in for some downside especially in the semiconductors. with this stock we have about 113-dollar expected move in it. charles: whoa, whoa. we've got to say that again, folks. this stock is going to move $113 either way after the bell, that's what you're telling me? >> that's what the options market is pricing in, charles. charles: wow. all right. listen i know there is at least half a dozen firms, maybe more with a thousand, 1100-dollar price target on it. it is set up for some disappointment if that happens. golly it has been an absolute

monster. amd has been getting lost in the sauce. it has been struggling a little bit. last time it reported it was down. in fact it is down last two times it reported. it hasn't done a whole lot. our friend beth kindig, put out a report, executives sold $100 million worth of the stock. including the ceo, sold 50 million that is the biggest cluster since 2021. danielle, i'm putting a chart up here for folks to see. here is what we don't see with the other tech names. it cut through the 50 today moving average, like hot knife through but other. never enpaused. looks a little vulnerable to me. what do you see? >> charles, i agree amd has been vulnerable and if this stock moves below 140, that is the spot where i'm going to have to change my opinion. i love amd i love the company, i've been holding the stock. i love that you pointed out that the investors have been selling shares, because you know what? lisa su is a incredibly smart lady.

i think she is probably selling she wants some of that change in her pocket. you know what happens? investors get nerves when the executives sell. it is possible charles, that we actually get a great report from amd and we see amd up above $180 and investors know they don't have to worry about the fact that these executives have been selling shares. charles: yeah. sometimes if it is a few bucks no one cares, right? it is called management but when it starts getting 50, $100 million, it does raise an eyebrow or two. obviously i will be thinking about you after the bell when these numbers come on out. danielle, thanks for helping us out with this as always. >> thank you. charles: of course all eyes on the fed as the market slipped on the employment data. very, very sticky stuff going on and of course higher for longer. so we'll ask two of the very best. we have nadia with us and nancy tengler and let me tell you these two women are two of the smartest on the street. they have strong opinions on

chairman powell. we'll hear them next. ♪.

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charles: a ton of economic data out this morning. obviously it has got the market jittery but should it be as jittery as it is? we have got kelly o'grady will dig in and give us a little bit

more. kelly. >> reporter: the news that put the investors off balance was the first quarter employment index. eci came in hotter than expected today. it showed labor costs are rising at the fastest pace in a year-and-a-half. investors are taking that as a setback to fed's effort to get inflation under control. but like so many of data releases of late, the report is really a tale of two economic drivers. pure government sector and your private sector. government compensation here is on 12 month% change in this chart has really remained elevated where the private sector is decreasing, this orange line, that is what you want to see. this kind of just remained there. i want to doubleclick on the data of march 2024. government compensation on year-over-year percent basis that came in at 4.8%, versus 4.9% a year ago. right around the same. the private sector though, look at this it dropped to 4.1%

versus 4.8%. that's a big drop. then if you break out wages and salaries the difference becomes more clear. government on year-over-year basis this jumped up to 5% from 4%, private sector down to 4.3% from 5-pound 1%. that report also underscores a problem for the fomc that's highlighted by some work that the san francisco fed did. demand driven core pce last month was actually the highest we've seen since september 2022. so i want to draw your attention to the blue piece in the chart. that is the portion of inflation driven by demand and when inflation is more demand-driven and supply-driven, it is a sign too much money is chasing too few goods. one big reason for that is often increased government spending and that's where it connects back to the previous chart i showed you. what is interesting though, there were also two huge economic data point misses after the open. so the april open chicago pmi

number was a complete flop. anything 50 or above means the manufacturing sector is expanding. excuse me, the read fell to 37.9 from 41.4 in march, definitely contracting. and by the way that hugely missed the estimate of 45. i will also note this is the lowest, the chicago pmi has been in 17 months and below the level it was at the start of six of the last seven recessions so that's not good. the other miss, consumer confidence, it swooned to a read of 97 against consensus of 104.7. most of the damage came from expectations. that collapsed to 66.4 against a consensus of 74. so for now the cme fed watch tool is indicating just one rate hike this year, coming two days after the election. so, charles, it will be curious what we can glean from powell's guidance tomorrow after the decision. charles: oh, boy, he has got his hands full, kelly, great stuff,

appreciate it. my next guest expect the two rate cuts starting in september and see as soft landing. joining me ubs u.s. equity strategist nadia lowell. at this point considering all the confusion, these periodic data points coming in hotter than expected what would be the impetus be for rate cuts at this point? >> you know, we do think that inflation is still on the disinflation path. we always knew the last mile would be the toughest mile and there would be some bumps along the way and we expect chair boy he will to echo those sentiments tomorrow. we don't expect to see a real surprise from the fomc conference tomorrow. the reality, the market repriced and pendulum has swung the other way, expecting less than the three rate cuts the fed penciled in the march s.e.p., at the end of the end of the day the data needs to

cooperate. the eci this morning didn't really help that. we think at the same time the inflation will remain on disinflationary path. we know there arenal iaea effects in the first quarter as well. when we look at pipeline of disinflation to come, and shelter and we expect auto disinflation to ease. the core cpe we got last friday, 2.8%, yes, it is above trend but in terms of a target but reality is, is not that far off from the 2.6% fed penciled in for year-end. so it feels like if we get back in the disflesh shunry trend, the fed should be in a position to cut by the time we get to december. charles: speaking of the pendulum swing, everyone last week was talking stagflation after the gdp number but you're still in the soft landing camp. walk us through this because if the fed cuts, it seems to me that jay powell hinted that it would be because we would get a shock in jobs right?

we would get one of these jobs reports where the unemployment number would lead to 4.1, 4.2%. how do we get a soft handing from here? >> we, you know, chairman powell before had indicated that you needed growth to slow down to get inflation back to where it is target but i think that has been proven that inflation can start to move back towards target without any slowdown in growth. we had the 6th consecutive quarter of above trend gdp growth for much of last year. we still had inflation come down. i don't think you need a labor market to really slow down in a significant way. on friday we do still expect a solid payroll number, probably below the 265 three-month moving average we've been seeing over the last three months but still quite healthy. the consumer remains in good shape despite you sea weakness in sentiment, the consumer is still spending and that is good for the economy. charles: let's switch to the

markets and your thoughts so far on earnings because you still overall remain positive on technology but what everything else? >> we are positive on tech but outside of tech we're also quite positive on industrial, despite the fact that you do see some weakness in the regional pmis this morning we'll get ism, pmi tomorrow. the last recent data of the last month, it did show the manufacturing segment of the economy is dipping back into expansion territory. that is good for industrials. we saw a pickup in new orders as well as production but outside of that industrials also benefited from a.i. a eye is not just a tech story, we're seeing a pickup in growth from those industrial companies that are related to the buildout of data centers and also the cooling of data centers. without giving any sort of single stock view we saw upside to earnings last week from

furtive and even from train. we remain positive on industrials as well as health care which is getting some nice tailwinds from a pup in the obesity drug demand. charles: we saw the big move in lily. nadia, thank you very much, appreciate it. all right, folks, my next guest pulling no punches with her assessment of the current fed chair writing, it gives me no pleasure but in my 40 plus years as investment professional i cannot recall a more hapless fed chairman. chair powell's flip-flops are too many to couldn't and come with rapidity. we have nancy tengler. wow, wow. what the heck. that was brutal. tell us more. >> thanks for having me, charles. i think you only have to look to his last two statements. it was just a few weeks ago when not only the fed chairman but other members of the board were

out saying yes we'll be able to cut-rates this year. you know the data looks like it is moving in our direction. then at the end of march when stocks were hitting all-time highs, part of his rationale was financial conditions were weighing on the economy and that's just contradictory to the facts and that's how it's been all the way through and i think one of the things that i find so frustrating, there is no sort of acknowledgement of mistakes. there is just statement after statement, and the market for whatever reason continues to react. i stopped listening. i stopped listening about a year ago. charles: wow. if somehow the market forces powell's hands, recently we heard a lot of people bring up the bond vigilantes, ultimately maybe the bond market having stuff somehow because it feels like this fed really wants to cut if they can find some sort of reason or excuse, but at the same time, their back is being

pushed to the wall. to your point you cannot keep excusing or ignoring the data? >> yeah. and i think, charles, one of the problems is, they have 400 phd economists, over 400 at the fed, and yet the committee in all their wisdom decided at jackson hole in 2020 they would get out of the estimation business which is really what these economists are supposed to do, they would become what they call data dependent. my partner, arthur laffer, jr., don't confuse data dependence with discipline. we've seen a very undisciplined fed but more important than that, they are not factoring in fiscal spending into their model in any meaningful way. so with 10 trillion in cumulative deficit spending since the pandemic, we have a perfect source within our own country that is fanning the flames of inflation and continues to do so. so that's why you're seeing these crosscurrents of information. wages rolled over but the

employment cost index was up. i thought that report was brilliant by the way. i think it was kelly gave it. breaking down the government jobs and wages versus private sector. but there are a lot of crosscurrents because people are not factoring in the impact of the spending and then the inflationary effects of reshoring and onshoring. so, i think we're going to be at this for a while but i do think things are weaker than the numbers show. that we will see a slowdown. charles: i agree. i agree the private sector, that eci number was extraordinarily weak or weaker on the private side. you know, we know that they set things up in the government so particularly in the state, local level, there could be a lot of spending, a lot of hiring. it looks good nominally but inflationwise are not. i have 30 seconds, you saw in the note, mag-7 not in euphoria territory yet? >> yeah. well i think we saw it. really interesting, these companies are benefiting from

higher interest rates. so if you looked at 2023 meta's interest income and, sorry, interest income grew three times to 1.billion and between the top five in that group they own 23% of corporate cash in s&p. now we're seeing dividends coming out of google and meta. they can't merge or dough any acquisitions so they're returning capital to investors. you maybe want to be long not everyone of names but be long the group because valuations are not close to what they were in the '90s which is my analogous position for this market and this economy. charles: all right. nancy, great stuff. i love it when we get straight-shooters on the show. see you soon. >> thank you. charles: when it comes to avoiding long-term losses it seems like there is no asset class able to do it. you hear some assets foolproof, never lose money, they all do at times, sometimes more than you think. george noble here with some

thoughts and ideas on that as we enter into a really rough period on this market. we'll be right back. ♪. as an independent financial advisor, my promise to you is simple. as a fiduciary, i promise to put your interests first, always. i promise that our relationship will go well beyond just investment decisions. it's the intersection of your money and your life where we can make the biggest difference. [announcer] charles schwab is proud to support the independent financial advisors who are passionately dedicated to helping people achieve their financial goals. visit findyourindependentadvisor.com to advance the future of golf, pga of america chose t-mobile for business. with a 5g powered innovation hub to analyze player performance and expand coaching tools. take your business further with america's largest 5g network.

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her uncle's unhappy. i'm sensing an underlying issue. it's t-mobile. it started when we tried to get him under a new plan. but they they unexpectedly unraveled their “price lock” guarantee. which has made him, a bit... unruly. you called yourself the “un-carrier”. you sing about “price lock” on those commercials. “the price lock, the price lock...” so, if you could change the price, change the name! it's not a lock, i know a lock. so how can we undo the damage? we could all unsubscribe and switch to xfinity. their connection is unreal. and we could all un-experience this whole session. okay, that's uncalled for.

♪. >> this is a rare pen, a gift from emperor hirohito. unbreakable, impervious to everything but water. i'm sure you didn't pay me this visit to hear a lecture on fine art, lieutenant. do what do i own owe the honor? >> i'm investigating the attempted murder of one of your dock workers. charles: [laughter]. just a classic, right? i mean listen, we use that clip because i think there is some new reality setting in for investors. particularly after the last 40 years, it was an as zit class impervious to going down. everything can get hit from time to time, even 10-year bonds. in fact my next guest wants to avoid bonds, noble capital advisors managing partner, george noble. george, setting this up for the audience they can see. we have a big board for folks.

1926, to 22, stocks up on after 7% of the year. typically 60% of time they're higher. bonds give you less than 2%, up 54% of the time. there are swaths where bonds haven't worked. worst three years down 34%. there was a time in 10-year period bonds were down 44%. so a lot of times the knee-jerk reaction on wall street, you know this, is to go into bonds and i think they're starting to lose that luster a little bit. >> couldn't agree more, charles. the key point is we transition from disinflationary environment, the great moderation last decade where stocks and bonds are negatively correlated. now stocks and bonds are postively correlated. it is a much different environment. we'll not give, returns we had last decade we're not getting back. this is a whole different landscape as you're pointing out. charles: why the old 60/40 portfolio supposed to give you some sort of balance has been

out of whack for a while? >> 100%. we'll get to it. i think gold is suitable replacement for bonds. charles: talk about other things, in the new environment. avoid bonds. don't like ohio valuations? >> correct. i think that hurts p-e's in high growth stocks. charles: companies making profits. >> companies need external financing, bad balance sheet, access to capital not going to be readily available as it was in the past. no more free money. charles: politically correct stuff into look at the tape, solar stocks, electric car companies. charles: i bought some enphase. my god, i think i'm down 50%. but i'm young. it is in one of my retirement accounts. i'm young. >> that's okay. that's okay. charles: stay away from this stuff. the bottom line, sounds like you're saying good old-fashioned strong companies with very strong balance sheets. they raise a lot of money. they don't need to go to the markets to raise money in higher environments but the tables have been turned though, avoid bonds. with that we're talking about going long gold.

>> right. so as we mentioned earlier, you know you need to hedge yourself against inflation in your portfolio. i think, gold, whether gld or want to buy gold equities, gdx is a proxy for that, are great ways to insulate yourself from what is going on in the bond market. charles, i don't have to tell you, you've been very outspoken on it, we're spending money like drunken sailors, i have concern who will buy the bonds with inflation persistent in my view rising higher. i like gold, related entities. energy, buy the xlp which is proxy for the emp companies or individual names. another sector closely tied to the energy market are tankers, shipping stocks. scorpio tanker, which is the world's largest product tanker company, the supply demand situation looks fabulous. small other book, they have a lot of pricing power. i think you need to insulate your portfolio against the possibility of higher inflation. this is a good way to do it.

>> just moments before we started janet yellen was out talking and i think it backfired. seems like she was trying to soothe anyone but i don't think she really succeeded. the idea to your point, the amount of money this country is spending and raising, they say people will always buy our bonds but at the right price. >> what price, exactly. charles: the buyers are in the driver's see now. >> you're stuck between a rock and hard place. own one hand they want to cut-rates stimulate growth, prop up financial markets. if the economy slows down significantly they probably will. but i think all the inflation assets will take off when they see that. they're stuck between a rock and hard place. charles: good to have your wisdom on the show, george. >> take care. charles: the surreal disconnect between what is going on in geopolitics and what is being discussed about geopolitics. what she is calling geopolitical jujitsu. she will break it all down next.

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charles: jujitsu, jupiter, geopolitics is a swirling and nuts for a special assistant, and the i want to start with this line. you can hear the cast and draining away. americans can furiously debate military strategy and fall back on the belief that we always want with near peers as we are bleeding out not only realizing the situation requires a financial alternative. more than we are willing to tell. >> the way most people die on a battlefield is by bleeding out.

we don't think of this as a financial battlefield. every time the us has to deploy aircraft carrier groups in the middle east or placed troops in north africa or respond to chinese warships off of taiwan this is incredibly expensive and we don't know how much all of this high alert full deployment is going to cost and this is the thing they are not taking into account. is the fed going to raise rates how do you not take into consideration the fact that conflict is inflationary and expensive. charles: the fact is the us defense budget is more than china, russia, india, saudi arabia, south korea and japan combined. looking on this screen here,

taxpayer money and inflationary, and we are getting dinged at the supermarket because they are higher as well. >> it is worse because just because you spend a fortune on defense capability doesn't give you an advantage. i was in the white house serving president bush when 9/11 happened and we spent trillions of dollars on defense capability and were overcome by $5 box cutters and we are seeing this more and more that america's open opponents are using highly effective technology so our spending a lot doesn't necessarily equate to effectiveness in the modern technological world. we are using 5 million-dollar missiles to shoot down $20,000 drones. where does this go? conflict is inflationary. is this a swirly part of the conversation? >> very squarely part of the conversation and tricky because it is not just the fed but in

general the media has decided the conflict is localized in ukraine, gaza, israel, potentially taiwan but nowhere else and these things are discrete, independent foreign policy issues but i see a more globalized phenomenon where russia and china are provoking a response by the us and nato in many diverse locations and it is the cumulative cost of that confrontation that matters for the bottom line. charles: another part of this, from npr, the op-ed has been there for a few days, what about what's happening with respect to our lack of trust in institutions? that has largely gone away. >> there certain lack of

viewpoint diversity, may be our focus has been on diversity of people but not enough focus on diversity of opinions. when you don't have diverse opinions you become weaker and more vulnerable to the unexpected. charles: i love your writing, always reading it. let me pick up on this part of the conversation, using the rest losing faith in major us institutions, we still love small businesses, the military, we love our police. everything else is of freefall and at the bottom on the bottom of the barrel congress and big business so here lies the rub. we love the men and women of the military and freedom is not free but we don't necessarily like the big business side that always has congress wrapped around its finger. and its farewell address you may remember president eisenhower warned we must guard against acquisition of unwarranted influence sought or

unsought by the monetary industrial conflicts but when will the american people start turning tables on all these things? when will we stop settling for being influencers on social media selling any long-lasting dealings or gadget and be influencers to those who work for us? time for us to turn the table and americans to demand accountability, look what's happening on college campuses, things are falling completely apart and we are sitting back and allowing it to happen. i want to borrow a phrase, time for the american public to stop being squarely because being squarely in this environment is nuts. we've got to seize the day or watch it go away. the last hour of trading will be treacherous, buckle up. the liz: breaking news, one hour left to trade in april, for the fi