futures are higher ahead of the opening bell nothing has knocked futures off rack this morning. we have a jobs number. >> tomorrow. big day. >> that could be a big number, and becky from omaha >> omaha, nebraska >> "squawk on the street" coming up next. ♪ good thursday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber at post nine of the new york stock exchange premarket adds to weapons's post-fed rally as chair powell eases some concerns about a fed rate hike. oil still below $80 and the vix just below 15. our road map begins with the

fed, the chair saying inflation is still too high. we've got a big day for apple, which will report its earnings after the bell, this amid signs of an iphone slump and, of course, potential struggles in china we're keeping an eye on shares of carvana. they are up as much as 40% in the premarket. remember when that thing was close to bankruptcy? well, this was a record-setting quarter, and we're going to talk with the ceo that will be next here on "squawk on the street. let's begin with the markets and the fed, the day after the chair delivered this message on rates. >> it's unlikely that the next policy rate move will be a hike. i would say it's unlikely. you know, our policy focus is really what i just mentioned, which is how long to keep policy restrictive. >> lot of takes today, jim bmp unequivocally dovish, you agree? >> that's a hard one, because i

think that b of a saying fomc meeting, wait and see. fomc bias here, morgan stanley firm hold with the -- firm hold. fomc stalling for time, wells fargo. i mean, i think that i like the idea that what he's really doing is saying, listen, i'll stall for time, things will go my way. he's confident he was not trapped, by the way, into saying something stupid, like, yeah, i know, i shouldn't have said what i said. david, there's a gotcha element to the media, but jay powell has been around for a long time, and he kind of knows how to speak without being trapped. >> yeah, he's done enough of these that you would think he kind of knows how to navigate them >> yeah. >> we talk often, though, about at least what are these mixed pictures that we see in terms of the performance of the consumer, particularly medium to lower-end. >> yeah. >> reflected in any number of the earnings that we've been going over lately. i just continue to wonder how that's play for him and what and how he addressed that during the

call, during the conference call >> i'm glad you mentioned it, because we just keep hearing the same thing strapped, strapped, strapped consumer is strapped consumer can't afford this consumer can't afford that >> yes >> and when you hear that, upgrade today, very important upgrade by ubs of tjx, evidence lab, saying, listen, when the consumer's strapped, you cogo ti way. carl, when i look at whether the consumer is strapped or not, i think that maybe the key person to talk to is a guy that, let's say, ernie garcia, because he has -- he has at carvana the best view i know, because that is a very fractured market he's got 1% of it, and people want used cars, because they can't afford new cars. we'll get ford's numbers, but i do think that garcia has the pulse of the economy >> well, certainly, they are relying heavily on the strength of the labor market, jim claims, 208. looking for 211. just continues to be robust, and

we'll see what we get tomorrow >> it's robust, but i think that people -- i don't know did they spend all the money they had did they become more frugal? are they just more aware that everything went up in price, and they just don't understand why that happened? david, there's a mystery look, we're not political, but if you were a political person, you would say, you're trying to relate why when you go to the supermarket, biden should still be president they have nothing to do with each other i mean, nothing. >> no. listen, but rates are playing out through the economy. sara talks about this all the time whether it's your mortgage, whether it's your car loan, whatever it might be, in terms of at least your borrowing, and if you are, you know, if you're strapped in some way, it may very well be because your monthly bill has gone up in some fashion as a result of what you're financing >> insurance electricity. we never talk about that electricity went up. we didn't think it would go up because there's nothing involved with -- other than to say nat gas being lower, but it is a

quandary, and i think that the quandary's been met with things like netflix, which, again, is positive, not going out. doordash saying that, you know, it's okay. it's not -- they're not spending more that way. we can't find them, for the most part we can't find where this consumer is who just had his or her student loans forgiven we do know that there's a bifurcation, a very rich consumer is still spending a not-rich consumer will splurge on something that's experiential it's like you have two economies. we have the taylor swift economy, just using something that's catchy, and you have the people who don't even want to do that and the don't even want to do that, i feel bad for them, because they are -- they feel like, as we learned in college, they're lumped in prolitariate

>> we just had a retail sales present at 0.7 >> i agree i don't understand how these companies can say this stuff to me, we have unemployment that's so strong that allows you to be able to have -- to trade up, to get a better job. it's almost as if -- this is why i mentioned politics to begin with there's a negative mindset within the context of a positive economic backdrop. >> meantime, oecd raises their global growth forecast for the entire planet and takes the u.s. from 2.1 to 2.6. >> it's a halcyon time, for heaven's sake, and i think that the negativity may have much more to do with current events than it does with your wallet, david. >> maybe i don't know i mean, i'm looking at ebay. we're going to have him on in the next hour. >> i think it's poor execution >> i'll ask him about it they are talking about consumer confidence being at low levels >> that's what you talk about when you have poor execution >> lowest levels since july of

2022 and navigating ongoing challenges in the global economy. >> well, look, the ongoing challenges have not -- what, your pocketbook? >> i'm just saying i don't know carl's smiling >> well, look, i'm struggling with the idea that at any given time in the last 40 years, if you had job mobility like we have now, you could better yourself move up and make more money. chipotle the managers are making $200,000 there, and they're getting stock. it's one of the reasons they have to split the stock. there is no depression or negative thinking if you work at chipotle if you are a barista, i got to tell you, you're at tjx today. >> yeah. we'll talk some wayfair, where active customers, orders per customer, revenue per customer, all with green arrows. we'll get to that. >> i've got wayfair, and it's incredible, because wayfair, they're not making any money, but they fit the zeitgeist >> what about etsy does that fit the zeitgeist?

for every wayfair, i'll give you an etsy. >> josh would admit he didn't execute well >> so, it's execution when it comes to not a good quarter, not the economy, or not the weak consumer, and it's just good execution if, in fact, you do better is that right? >> yes >> so, starbucks, obviously, which we'll talk about in a bit, that was all execution >> yes >> okay. mcdonald's >> price >> that was price. >> yeah. >> shack shack looks good today >> well, look, there are guys that you want to go spend more money. remember, chipotle put through very big price increase and it didn't hurt them at all. i think there's a cup of coffee that can cost too much >> darden, we got. that was pretty okay >> they got -- >> not great that was a day ago >> that's a push olive garden is a push they had their rates priced. it didn't hurt them as much as i thought. but you know, look at mastercard, which, by the way, i

think was misinterpreted, but the presumptuous of mastercard is that consumer spend has slowed down. the presumption of visa and american express is that consumer spend is -- has gotten better mixed pictures in a lot of these. by the way, mike is a very good executer at mastercard i didn't think mastercard was that bad i think there was headline bad but i come back to execution when it comes to -- execution or price. the execution at qsr, restaurant brands, was superb and they blew away the number. >> when we come back, we will revisit starbucks, of course, after that interview yesterday and the stock slide with the company's ceo told us on this program. get to a bunch of other names, qualcomm, corvo, novo, neo, with futureloinsod ts s okg lionhi thursday

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speed of service improvements we've seen are real the opportunities that we have with the new processes that we're rolling out suggest to us that we can make that even better, and the entire leadership team is focused on ensuring that we make improvements as we go in order to increase that speed of service even more. >> well, laxman, the speed of service is real. that's a fanciful statement. it's the exact opposite of what is happening and i don't know how you can say it on our air. >> jim, the facts are, we have improved speed of service quarter over quarter if you look at how the processes that we're rolling out, particularly around peak, what we are finding is that we have

options to improve that even further with changes in processes and tools that we provide to our partners at peak. >> but you said that people are using the mobile app, and they are not able to get what they want because they can't. it's too slow. i think your throughput is awful, sir and i do not understand how you can say service is good and also say at the same time that throughput is awful. >> starbucks chief, laxman narasimhan, with us yesterday. company shares coming off their worst post-earnings daily decline in about a quarter century. >> look, i'm not saying i'm some expert just because i owned restaurants for 12 years or that i was in this business a long time ago, but there is a -- there are measurable people who know what they're doing. ron shake, when he ran panera. most certainly brian niccol, when he runs chipotle, and they

know that the key is throughput, which is getting people in and out. there was a moment where ron told me his son went into a -- he went into a panera and said, dad, there's a mosh pit there, people who don't know what they're doing, they're waiting for stuff, so he created panera 2.0, went to charlotte, north carolina, developed new stores to fix it and didn't do it overnight. said, listen, i got to spend a year i used to speak to him every month and say, when is it going to be ready? but he literally found a second way, and then he rolled that out, and that's what starbucks needs to do, because they have terrible throughput. i was a little surprised when you go over the numbers and the throughput's bad and things are deteriorating, you can't come on our air and say the throughput is good and things are getting better that's a suboptimal strategy it's ill advised to come here. the numbers are the numbers, and the forecast is the forecast, to quote the great frank slootman, who used to be at snowflake. you can't do it.

it's just not right. i had a bad year in 2001 at 20 -- and i had a bad year in 2021 if you had asked me how i did, and i said i came on and said i had a good year and you were aware of how i did here's what you would say to me. get off my show. >> i don't hear you defending a level here at $75 the way you did apple. >> my travel trust owns it >> why do you still own this thing? >> you can't sell it after we talk about it. i told you the rules again and again. >> i know you do >> i told you the rules. >> listen, it's hard, man. it's hard to get all this stuff right from a stock-picking standpoint >> i screwed up. i'm not blaming him. i screwed up >> i still own shares of comcast. >> well, yeah, you have -- >> it's the only name we're allowed to own, by the way >> if you worked for abc, you could sell your comcast. >> yes then i would own disney. oh, geez >> they report next week >> would have been a lot -- actually -- >> nelson peltz, where are you >> please, what are you talking about? that stock is up 22% this year, and i would assume next week --

>> don't get distracted. don't do this -- >> oh, i will get distracted >> don't do this alinear thinking >> only one of us can do that? >> the problem with starbucks is they have a big throughput problem. they have a mobile order, and you have to wait for it because it's too crowded now, you can say, well, too crowded is a positive whithing. i'm saying, it doesn't matter. when numbers are going down, you can't say that service is getting better because the numbers don't let you. what would i have done -- i would say, look, we have to rethink. the numbers are going down we had a worse quarter than the previous quarter, and we're going to solve the problem but we didn't do a good job. you know what happens when you say that to me >> i think i just found out. >> i say, thank you, sir thank you. let's figure out together how to get it better. that's all i wanted was a recognition of what was in the conference call and what was in the numbers, which was the -- things are deteriorating and then it would have been very

c convivial. there's a way to make me a c convivial person say what you said in the conference call. that's all >> meanwhile, we're waiting for ford auto sales for april. let's get to phil lebeau today >> carl, take a look at shares of ford, april auto sales falling 2.4%, but the numbers in terms of the types of vehicles they sell, that's the most interesting thing here i.c.e. vehicles down 9.2%. where are people shifting? well, they're clearly shifting towards green vehicles, if you will ev sales in april, more than doubled compared to april of last year, up 129.2% hybrid sales, up 59.5% look at the f-150 hybrid, the maverick hybrid. hybrids and evsnow make up 14% of ford's monthly sales. a year ago, guys, it was 8%. we've said this about ford we've said abit about practicaly

every legacy auto maker. there is a shift toward evs but more towards hybrids that is clearly coming through in the april sales numbers >> let me just ask you, phil, they, at ford, really decided to go -- they really did not emphasize ev on that last conference call. are they just clearing inventory at a low price is that what happened? >> in terms of evs or hybrids? >> ev. no, hybrid, they're doing great. i'm saying, whatever they did in ev, you know, they -- are the evs so low now is that mustang so low that we should go buy one? they'd make a good deal? >> well, they did see that when you lower the price, as they did on the mustang mach-e, take a look at the april sales numbers for the mustang mach-e, more than triple chaired ompared to e they were a year ago they're also increasing production on the mustang mach-e and the f-150 lightning, though the lightning production is not going to be what they originally

thought it was going to be pricing still is what's driving evs. >> phil, let me just -- >> not just with ford but all automakers >> phil, i got another recall yesterday on my maverick, this time on a taillight. when are -- when's the quality going to get better? >> well, on the last call, they talked about it. jim farley talked about the fact that they held back on releasing the new f-150 until they could reduce, dramatically reduce, the number of problems so that they would have fewer recalls they believe that they're making progress there >> they are. >> but look, any time you get a recall announcement, you know, it's sort of like, oh, here we go again but they do believe they're making progress. >> i know what i'm doing saturday, phil i'm visiting my ford dealer. >> we're going to get to a lot of other auto news, including some news surrounding tesla. interesting note out of morgan stanley's adam jonas today we'll get cramer's "mad dash," countdown to the opening bell. e reoohe afureonmo lk ret tus. don't go anywhere. g at schwab iw powered by ameritrade,

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in general, we're not seeing the signs of strain on the consumer, but it has something to do with the segment that we

pr operate in, which is digital and delivery i do understand there are some headwinds that certain merchants face when it comes to in-store traffic, but when it comes to all things digital, we're actually not seeing, i think, those same signs of strain >> that was tony xu, ceo of doordash, founder as well. let's get to a "mad dash" about doordash, which is going to be down sharply >> look, i've got to tell you, i thought tony xu was self-effacing, in some ways too self-effacing. this is an example of the opposite of what i saw in starbucks. i thought it was a good quarter until i read what tony felt he should have done he's a perfectionist he was not happy by the way, david, they have a lot of stock-based compensation. >> yes enormous stock-based comp. >> that made me feel like they haven't done the big pivot that we know -- that the airbnbs have done but i know he's very hard on himself, and the incrementally negative read-throughs about uber eats, i thought they were

okay i was surprised that the stock was down as much now, it is this was a victim of this. okay >> yes >> it's just up a lot. but when you read through it, you've got -- you get the sense of a great ceo, who's just saying, listen, i didn't do this, i didn't do that there were some rule changes in new york and seattle that hurt things for him he said it didn't matter that much, but i find that this man is so self-critical, and there was so much self-remonstration in this that i thought he took the stock down >> interesting >> i think he did. i know him from the restaurant business he just is a perfectionist this was a quarter which just said, you know what, i'm still not doing my job as well as i'd like really remarkable conversation >> all right well, we'll keep an eye on shares of doordash we'll be talking a little qualcomm and apple we'll talk apollo earnings we've got a lot more for you an opening bell a little less than five minutes from now and by the way, don't forget,

ywrecan catch us any time, anhe by listening to and following the "squawk on the street: opening bell" podcast.

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apple is due out with quarterly results after the close tonight, the company expected to report its biggest revenue decline in more than a year a watch is on to see what apple might say about adding generative a.i. to its iphone, as well as overcoming the sales slump in china jim, the street's hoping for some numbers on vision pro >> yeah, look, i always say apple, own it, don't trade it. i thought th that sacconaghi's upgrade sealed the deal. when you have china this quarter, and china disappoints, which it has for every single company, then it doesn't matter. you're bad i mean, estee lauder had its first good quarter with china this week. any time that you can say, look, starbucks, china, eadviscerated

the stock. nike, china's not that good. any place where china's not that good, it is overemphasized, almost overindexed in the brains of the analysts. so, beware that china will not be that good for apple >> let's get the opening bell here at the cnbc realtime exchange at the big board, it is make-a-wish kid luke bre brettenberger and his family doing the honors, ringing the opening bell we hope we can get a picture with him later on this morning at the nasdaq, it's israel advanced technology industries association. as breadth looks decent here at the open, jim. >> i was surprised, the last 15 minutes of the market was some sort of, i don't know, a disparity, because once powell made the point that, look, the next movement is likely going to be a cut, people just breathed a sigh of relief, and you just had many of the major companies we've been looking at, and we are thinking about google,

amazon, microsoft, really shoot up, and they just -- those were the bellwethers yesterday. they were great. >> yeah. there's some discussion about a failure once again at the 50-day for the s&p. >> i know. >> last few minutes. >> david, i know you don't hold to the technicals, but there are people who just say, all right, bounced off, didn't make it, that's enough, and i think both you and i agree that that's a little too glib, that there are companies that are doing very well, and they -- yesterday, after powell was done, they were rewarded microsoft had been below where it was after that great -- when they announced that great quarter. that seemed -- >> yeah, right the stock is up about 6% this year microsoft is up right now. let's talk a little apple, can we, guys stock is up over 1%. i guess hopes -- we'll get the quarter tonight. we'll obviously be talking a great deal about it tomorrow >> everyone's excited. >> their own capex, given the enormous numbers we've seen from

microsoft and amazon and meta and alphabet and so much of that devoted towards a.i., generative a.i., you know, the hyperscalers, it's a little different than meta spending the money in the way it is, but an apple as well. not a hyperscaler. how much will they be spending will there be the inclusion in a very significant way of generative a.i. on the next iphone will it bring a wave of upgrades >> can it be -- >> that seems to be the enthusiasm >> can it be self-styled do they have to rely on a google, or do they have to finance themselves no one's allowed to mention apple who is a supplier now. we said yesterday that skyworks was all bad. skyworks saw an inflection at the bottom qualcomm, looked like business as usual >> we'll get to qualcomm's numbers in a minute, because the stock is up. but on apple, you've said consistently, own it, don't trade it, for the longest period of time. >> exactly >> you know -- this quarter is

not conceivably going to be a strong one >> i said the stock could go to $160, and i would still like it, but i'm betting that it's the next iteration of the phone could be very -- >> we're getting closer to the june meeting, in which we're going get more details >> absolutely. we need to see that. and i have been saying, listen, let's make the vision pro both consumer and business-to-business they have always studiously avoided any business-to-business product at apple >> right and the vision pro, you guys may have been talking about it, i can barely hear during the bell there, but that's not really doing much of anything right now. >> no. but maybe they can reignite it, and we want to see, of course, more companies right for it. the more you -- >> i know, you're a believer in the enterprisein terms of what that could mean. you came away from the nvidia meeting as a believer in what you can do if you can put everybody in one of those things >> if you talk to the hyperscalers, and we're talking about the magnificent seven, they'll tell you, listen, we're on allocationfor nvidia.

we have good relationships with nvidia meaning, basically, hat in hand, but we also have to develop our own chips, simply because we're not going to get enough, because nvidia can't provide them. amd has a very good alternative, and people will be going to the mi-300, but if you look at taiwan semi, the stock has made a really big recovery, and that's because it turned out, you know what, things are a little better than expected in the semi world, and i just think people are too negative. i even think everyone's dutmpin on corvo today they had a quarter gap >> bit of a sentiment split between qualcomm and qorvo today, although apple is the top-performing down name at the moment >> any time you come in hot, and you have china, it's just a mistake. >> tesla also up let's talk qualcomm, because the company did, you know, i looked at a couple of notes here. generally seen as good results for qualcomm, and you are getting a follow-through in the stock market, at least amongst investors, stock up almost 9% right now.

this is -- $183 billion market value company. >> well, they had good auto. >> and not bad handset >> they had good handset >> i'm reading a citi note that says, the handset market's good, but we're not a believer in a.i. in handsets yet. while the printand guide were solid, meaning the earnings and the guidance were solid, we believe the handset cycle driven by a.i. at the edge is a year away, given the lack of a killer app. that gets you back to the conversation we just had, in part, about apple. but overall, qualcomm, more or less, delivered, and the guidance certainly didn't scare anybody away >> they didn't there are ten companies that write on it and ten price target increases of all different variations but the theme is that business has gotten not just strong but very strong. very quickly and i also think that they're getting some credit for automotive >> i mean, we talk so much about automotive remember -- i mean, my god, i

remember christiane, i'm talking about auto, auto, auto are they finally getting somewhere? it was a lot of promise. >> they -- not yet >> no? >> no. not yet. i do think that people -- by the way, ed breen had a call yesterday, and nobody paid attention to it. >> we talked dupont yesterday. >> a plolot of that was because they're seeing handset recovery, and that's what qualcomm is seeing after two years low handset recovery, a lot of companies in the handset business, and that's very positive news. it can reverberate all the way to texas instruments, which didn't have a bad quarter last time >> ed breen's the comcast director did you know that? >> that's a philadelphia things. >> i was looking through the proxy yesterday. >> it's philadelphia >> is that what it is? philadelphia >> they're not that hometown but ed breen is a -- look, ed breen is fabulous. >> ed breen's been around a long time at this point >> he's like the same year as me stop it. he played at council rock. i played at springfield.

i think we crushed them. not delco, monco >> i want to -- >> i crushed it. >> i want to go to the alternative asset managers and take a look at shares of apollo as i work my way down here through my own list. up 1.3%. let me quickly take a look i also mentioned it because on monday, marc rowan will join me. it's going to be the annual event, the big one from l.a., and we always have an interesting sitdown, obviously talking about apoll o's earnings not to mention the private markets and private credit, where they are enormous. $40 billion, by the way, was the inflows overall. you know, some of the research here, fre was in line, more or less doesn't seem to be that much enthusiasm in terms of the actual numbers, but that said, gross inflows of $40 billion.

they're now $670 billion of assets under management, most of that in private credit call them alternative asset managers they used to be known as buyout guys that is far from what they are these days they have 5,000 people originating loans, essentially, for private credit most of it, investment grade >> that's incredible >> an insurer, which insures people's retirements, is a key part of the company. hundreds of billions of assets there, 95% of their assets there are fixed income i think 5% hybrid equity so much to talk to rowan about looking forward to that interview on monday, but did want to give a little bit of a preview here generally, a positive review for the numbers. again, the assets in particular. because, in this environment, the returns you can get with private credit, and again, marc will tell you, it's investment grade, the world is changing is

what he would say and has said in any number of interviews in terms of the available number of public companies, the lack of price discovery. he really questions why you need daily liquidity. he's all about the private markets. >> well, what's really incredible, david, we were -- let's say you have blackstone here what they would say is, we run a large number of companies. they would not say, we are about to put this company in ipo and this company's going to be sold. no they are company runners >> right well, that's also -- that's their portfolio companies. what i would point out is that the trillions, ultimately, that are -- that are now -- that have moved away from the banks, so to speak, in terms of loans, in terms of credit that are now in the hands of these private lenders is a sea change. >> the large bankers, when you get them off the desk, they always say, the dangerous thing is these guys. >> they want to say that because they claim that they're obviously not under the same regulatory regime. at the same time, of course, they're not levering things up

the same way the banks do, and they're not taking deposits. >> right they're not fooling around with our money. >> no. it's not our money >> rich people let them fend for themselves >> jim, commodities, worst back-to-back days of the year. cocoa, we know, is broken. we got oil still below $80, and with that, the requisite headlines about opec potentially extending voluntary cuts >> i think that when we talk about what's happening with commodities, why don't we say, look, commodities could be coming down in part because the fed has been a little more restrictive. i think the commodities spiked because we had a war premium that seems to be going well. that's a tricky one. copper was ev, so the spike in copper was very late, because evs -- we heard what phil said they're selling inventory of evs. so, there really was no reason for a commodity spike. we know that from the railroads that all talk about the commodities. i don't know it got out of hand and i think it's getting back, and it's a good -- it's good for

fed. >> we'll see we got cpi coming up on the 15th you mentioned evs. lot of news on tesla, on potentially pulling back on giga casting, more hand-wringing about the ev charging pullback this is california data, california q1 sales of cars, all passenger cars, tesla went from number one to number three, now behind the honda civic and the camry. >> hybrids >> in california >> right >> well, phil's been on the hybrid case better than anyone he's been saying over and over again that's what people like. ford's got the most hybrids. david, i'm surprised you have not said, jim, why are you in that ford for your travel trust? that would be a good one to make fun of me. >> i've done that already. >> that's never stopped you from mentioning it multiple times >> it hasn't, but i try to keep you upright during the course of the show i don't want to beat you too hard, you know >> okay. that's fair. >> i'm going to lay off on that. >> i appreciate that >> starbucks is another issue.

why you didn't sell that, i don't know >> i -- thank you for getting me out of boeing. >> you're welcome. you're welcome i appreciate you saying that guys, let's -- we just looked at oil. let's talk a little about exxon, pioneer. >> scott sheffield >> let's get to hess as well >> scott sheffield is the greatest >> well, the exxon acquisition of pioneer is going to close tomorrow it's going to close tomorrow you can take a look at exxon shares and pioneer shares. it is not going the -- the board of directors of exxon will no longer include mr. sheffield as a director that's a deal they reached with the ftc in which the ftc at least alleged that the pioneer ceo tried to collude with opec on oil prices. now, that, you know, so, the ftc says his past conduct makes it crystal clear he should be nowhere near exxon's boardroom, american consumers shouldn't pay unfair prices at the pump to pad a corporate executive's pocketbook as you might expect,

mr. sheffield and pioneer strongly dispute that read of the situation and believe that the ftc complaint completely misreads his actions but he's stepping aside from being on the exxon board and exxon says, in response to the ftc's concerns, we won't add him to the board we will be closing the deal tomorrow we look forward to implementing the integration plans they said they've jointly developed with pioneer over the last six months again, from milken on monday, i'm going to be joined by darren woods, the ceo of exxon, and we're going to talk about this deal and what his expectations are for that integration plan, perhaps in more detail and my guess is we'll also talk about something that he was talking about with becky on "squawk box" last friday after the company reported earnings, namely, that continued dispute with chevron over the joint operating agreement that they have with hess and whether, in fact, exxon has the right of first refusal, because it is a change in control.

it really may come down to as little as 11 words in that joint operating agreement, having to do with the carveout for the change of control. but they're going to arbitration. the icc, that's going to -- potentially, yes, it's uk law. gets complicated c nook is also involved. they own 25% of guyana exxon owns 45%, and hess owns 30%. hess bought that stake for 30 million bucks. >> wow >> $30 million >> john did that >> yeah. and it's worth $40 billion now >> good for john >> not bad, right? of course, the value of guyana, given what we heard from exxon and its most recent earnings, where they're up to 600,000 barrels of production a day, there are hess shareholders who argue, if hess was actually not getting bought by chevron, the stock would be higher. stock would be higher because guyana is so strong. because he did an at-market

deal, john hess, he is stepping on the board of chevron. he wanted to do this deal with chevron. that's where he wanted to be only talked to them, never talked to exxon. but there are a number of shareholders who are unhappy with it. by the way, they can write letters. i think they are writing letters. they can say, hey, chevron should be paying more. it doesn't appear, though, an actual proxy fight, which would basically have to be filed by monday or something like that to actually get this thing in front of iss and everybody else is going to happen. >> will you speak to darren? >> i will on monday. >> they paid a good price for pioneer. >> right whereas this argument that hess didn't do as well as it might have >> they didn't >> particularly given the strength of guyana, back to this really unusual dispute between hess and exxon, chevron, it's so interesting. >> i just say mr. sheffield taught me everything, but you know, talking about natural gas, mr. sheffield taught me a great

deal about oil, and i hate to see this happen, because he's a great man. he led in terms of environment and he has been the dean of the group, so that would be a black mark >> we haven't gotten to peloton, jim. barry mccarthy stepping down as ceo. he's going to remain a strategic advisor through the end of the year >> couldn't pull it off. >> they guide lower. a couple board members are going to be co-ceos, and i think we have some sound from them. take a listen. >> we do want to reiterate that barry's done a tremendous job stabilizing the business he came in at a very challenging time, and he has been really relentless in right-sizing an aggressive buildout that was not uncommon for many companies during the pandemic. he had to navigate a lot of curveballs thrown his way, and he's done some incredible work in rearchitecting the cost structure, and a really big highlight. i want to highlight that under barry's leadership, we achieved one of his primary goals, which was generating positive free

cash flow this quarter and we do expect to do that for the full year with the business more stable, the board decided to pivot to a leader who's going to architect and lead the next phase of growth for the company >> cutting about 15% of global head count it's going to be about 400 jobs >> i had high hopes that barry could pull this off. if he couldn't pull it off, i don't know who can it sounds like it's stable, but believe me, barry is one great operator >> somebody buy this thing, put it out of its misery >> what, like, a dying horse or something? >> yeah. >> okay. >> i mean, who -- is there anybody who can just pick this thing up and get it over with? >> you mean, like, turn it around >> no, just -- >> get it over with? >> you know what i'm saying. >> i don't know a better -- panera >> what possibly growth plan could there be for this company? >> i told you, if barry couldn't pull it off, then nobody can pull it off. barry is fantastic >> you were very enthused when he took over

>> he was at netflix i mean, the guy's a miracle worker >> fitness is always tough it's a shame the product remains very strong. >> this is one of the few subscription businesses that hasn't worked. >> yeah. >> peloton was supposed to be -- i thought it would be like spotify and netflix. didn't work out that way >> no. neither did go pro. >> fitbit did. >> that was during the period -- the dark days of google where you never knew what they were up to now, google is very transparent. remember, you were like, what's g google doing they have two health care departments. >> meanwhile, trying to hold on to initial gains following that rally that fizzled a bit yesterday. busy day for bonds q1 productivity was light on a quarterly basis, but year on year, goes from 2.7 to 2.9

discuss about decent trends on that front back in a moment [thunder rumbles] ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. it still does. what can you do with spy? ♪ ♪ [thunder rumbles] ♪ ♪

. we haven't gotten to novo. wegovy more than doubles they raise the guidance, but expectations must have been high, jim. the stock hasn't been able to -- >> they were i think lilly has enough product. that's what's going to happen. >> interesting. >> the -- the -- it's five fold increase in people using the drugs. >> the number of factories. >> you have they bought all the stuff from catalent. they will make more of it. >> 25,000 u.s. patients are starting it every week, up from 5,000 in december. >> i just -- look, it -- look, the stock was at one be point up up, down, a dollar, it's a question who can produce it fast enough. >> it's going to become relevant when people eat and don't eat. >> klavaelno, fantastic numbers.

>> steve kay ling coming on next hour. >> is? >> yeah. >> i love him. at corient, wealth management begins and ends with you. we believe the more personal the solution, the more powerful the result. we never lose focus on the life you want to build. it's time for wealth solutions as sophisticated as you are. it's time for corient.

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. jim, what's on media tonight? >> we've got draftkings, doing exceptionally well best in show, brinker, they put

together -- if you execute well they will come and you will make a lot of money executing at the highest form right now. >> fascinating restaurant business right now just crazy so many desperate signals. >> brinker's the largest seller of margaritas right before cinco de meo this sunday. >> see you tonight speaking of which, when we return a wide-ranging check on the pulse of the consumer. we'll talk with the ceos of carvana, ebay and kellanova after a break.

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♪ good thursday morning. welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street. i'm sara eisen with carl quintanilla, and david faber, live as always from post nine of the new york stock exchange. stocks, the day after powell, coming back a little bit with the dow up 119 points, s&p up

0.3% nasdaq gaining 0.6% after that crazy reversal yesterday late in the day. the 10-year note yield firmer, 4.6% so treasury selloff continues. this hour we've got a special "squawk on the street" hat trick. we'll talk with three major consumer facing companies the day after the fed held rates steady ceos of carvana, ebay and kellanova will join us to break down the inflation and rates impact of their respective businesses, what they're seeing from the consumer and, of course, quarterly results. speaking of earnings, 30 minutes into the trading session here are three movers we're watching. a host of news out of peloton. ceo barry mccarthy stepping down, the company cutting global head count by 15%, announcing new cost reduction efforts alongside third quarter results that showed wired losses than expected stock down 2%. it's taken a long beating. novo nordisk in the red despite beating expectations and raising its outlook reporting a 28%

jump shares of the drug wegovy more than doubling in the quarter wegovy now has 130,000 weekly prescriptions in the united states and then doordash after wooigds wired losses than expected the mid point of their short-term profit outlook also falling short of estimates let's gets factory orders on a busy day for data with rick santelli hi again, rick. >> hi, carl. we have factory orders fresh march numbers and durble goods if we look at 1.6 expected of factory orders that's what arrived 1.6. 1.6 happens to be the best level since november of last year. we did see a subtle downward revision to last month which was 1.4, becomes 2.8 excuse me 1.4 becomes 1.2. factory orders ex-trans, up 0.5% more than double the expectations and up 0.5% follows

up 1.1%. don't see any revises as of yet. now durable good orders, these are march finals mid-month read 2.6, it remains exactly at 2.6, and 2.6 was the best level since november of last year. ex-transportation, also remains exactly the same, up 0.2 and up 0.2, the best since november of last year. now, let's take capital good orders nondefense ex-air a proxy for capital spending up 0.1, which half of what we looked at in the mid-month read 0.2. switch from orders to shipments it is 0, unchanged it was 0.2 mid month so that gets downgraded a bit. of course last month was minus 0.6, even though it's unchanged it's better than the previous month. you see, interest rates have moved a bit higher on the mid and long end of the market that makes sense the short end is looking at some

of the more dovish comments that were put forth by chairman powell, growth testimony, statement, and q&a sara, back to you. >> okay. thank you, rick santelli let's talk about all that, new data as well from this morning but the message from powell i think was consistent with what he had said going into the fed meeting, which is that he still wants to cut rates, if he can, if they continue to see more progress or do see more progress on the disinflationary front he doesn't want to talk about rate hikes, and he wants to see inflation coming back down to trend. here are the money quotes from the news conference. >> i think it's unlikely that the next policy rate move will be a hike. i do think the evidence shows, you know, pretty clearly that policy is restrictive and weighing on demand i don't see the stagger. >> add it up, david, it's what we told you, that bar is super high for a hike. he really batted away discussion of rate hike

still, they kept the easing bias intact but they acknowledged that inflation has moved in the wrong direction and a lack of progress and they're going to need to see that the big undercertainty is not w powell says, it's what inflation data does, because that's why we don't know the path of rate cuts from here. if you go through some of the wall street data today, most of the economists are sticking with their forecasts and all are kind of all over the place when it comes to the first cut and how many cuts there's going to be. goldman sachs, jan hatzius, powell offered a dovish message we have left our forecast unchanged, expect two rate cuts, july and november. deutsche bank anticipates one rate cut in december and that policy will be gradually returning to neutral level in 2026 citigroup expects 100 basis points, four cuts in 2024. substantially more than priced in in the interest rate markets and bank of america just to add in a fourth one, one rate cut in december on the idea that inflation remains stickier

nobody knows, including powell, because they don't know when inflation will improve, and that's what's going to be the key, just like it has been the key the last few years for traders. >> all those calls basically went unchanged after the presser. the goldman call certainly the city, i think they're looking at 100 basis points not really giving month by month calls. stagflation where he said i was here for stagflation and basically this isn't it. >> no stag no flation he cites an unemployment rate below 4%. stag, you have a high unemployment rate. he cites inflation that has come down sharply when you have inflation problems you have levels that we were seeing, say, back in the height of this cycle of inflation pce got as high as over 7% it's now below 3%. there has been a lot of progress, and i think powell made it clear that he's optimistic that there will continue to be progress on inflation, and that he's watching signs of cooling in the

data, including the labor market that his policy is sufficiently restrictive. that's i think, if you were worried about a hawkish fed, that is reassuring, that powell thinks they're restrictive and cited specifics about that maybe not everyone agrees with him on that point but that's what he thinks and that's what matters. >> i mean, again, as we await more data, and we head deeper into the summer and we have an election looming, doesn't it seem really possible that you won't get a rate hike. >> rate cut. >> if any until next year or, i don't know, december. >> they're going to tune out the election they don't pay attention to the sflooex sure they don't. >> he's right to brush off and not to pay attention to. >> they are. >> independent fed, very important. >> at least for now. >> independent fed. >> exactly. >> as pimco pointed out every presidential year since 1980 the fed has either cut or hiked except for one, since '80. >> think they want to cut.

nothing to do with the election. they want to adjust policy to try to keep the economy and rofrtsry intact. which it very much is. which is why all these wage and inflation numbers are going to be important we're going to get the average hourly wages for the month of april tomorrow and the jobs report we're going to watch it. the market is sensitive to all of these inflation the prices paid in ism was firm. we got to track all these data points that we're getting in on inflation. i just wanted to mention really quickly we got some productivity data which we pay attention to some of the progress, the big gains we've been seeing in productivity, stalled in the first quarter and that drove up unit labor costs, basically what businesses pay employees per unit of output it can be inflationary and it was 4.7% on an annualized rate, a big jump from the fourth quarter. it's kind of noisy, but another potential problem on the inflation front.

not a game changer, but it's something the fed definitely pays attention to. >> finally come back to the consumer because we talk about it a lot and we were in the last hour as well going back and forth on some positives and negatives and every company it seems to be now perhaps if you're not executing properly it's easy to say - >> 100%. >> things are not great and maybe that was the case with the starbucks, maybe it is the case to a certain extent. >> etsy. >> with an etsy. >> or stanley black and decker again according to robert hum mentioned how muted consumer and diy demand weighed on performance. >> no question there's weakening. >> and positives. >> there's door dash and wayfair. >> wayfair, furniture has been a weak category. people haven't been spending on their homes. the ceo said the first quarter ended on an upswing at wayfair, the category show signs of improvement in february and march. bodes well on etsy, consumers feel pressured according to the ceo in spite of what we're seeing

about a generally healthy economy. consumers are pressured, and so they are seeking value and deep discounts and deep promotions. that has been a consistent theme across retail, i would say, restaurants in particular. but you're right, it's not completely universal because there are plenty of positives -- doordash says we're not seeing any signs of strain on the consumer. >> it might be the segment. >> digital and delivery. >> a beneficiary that people are not as - >> that's part of it. >> brick and mortar and eat. >> meantime the question is what comes next for stocks. fundstrat global adviser tom lee joins us with his predictions. great to have you back i imagine you were listening just now, and i wonder if you take the desperate signals out of earnings so far, and is that just -- is that characteristic of a period in which the job market may be in transition? >> i think that's right, carl.

i know investors are wrestling with a lot of questions in their minds because inflation is higher than they expected the start of the year and rates are higher and stocks are higher, they're wondering if this is a payback period and now we're hearing different forecasts for fed cuts and as you're pointing out, like, i think it's been an overall good earnings season, but we're hearing evidence of, you know, companies not being able to pass on price and there's some demand weakness and wage pressures i think that's part of the confusion that's taking place now, but to me, i'm kind of in the camp that despite all this, the -- it's all going to come down to whether inflation improves in the next couple months or the rest of the year if it does a lot of these clouds lift and i think markets actually do quite well >> which is why i think the consumer weakness commentary and the weakness that chair powell cited in terms of demand for

labor, at least weakening back to prepandemic levels, is important, right shouldn't that ultimately bring inflation levels down? >> that's right. i mean, i would say the interview that cnbc did with starbucks was telling. the answer ultimately there they have to cut price, and if they're cutting prices that's not reflected anymore, it's a reversal of that i think we're seeing consumers basically have their wallet getting squeezed because auto insurance and homeowners insurance has really sort of eaten in their discretionary dollars, that's not really an inflationary signal. i think the bar is being lowered now for the fed to cut, and i think that's something -- i think many people picked up. the fed stated it clearly, if the employment market even shows signs of weakness that's another reason to cut rates and we'll find out tomorrow. >> yeah. we're looking forward to seeing what job market tells us tom, so then does the playbook

short term look like mega cap, or are you in the broadening camp and want to play in the other 493? >> yesterday was a good day for market breadth that's why small caps rallied despite the s&p and nasdaq being down it really comes down to what interest rates do. i think that there's a, you know, still a good probability rates are peaking now, and if interest rates are lower because we either get softer jobs or inflation weakens, that's a 493 signal and, obviously, much better backdrop for small caps that's -- that would be sort of what we think leads in the second half. i still like the technology story just because of all the drivers behind ai. >> although quite a reaction that we're getting on earnings i think i read in a goldman note it's almost like -- it's at least 3.5 times the normal reaction to that -- that stocks are having to earnings than they usually get off earnings season, what does that tell us, that the

market was rich going in >> i mean, it could be the market was rich or the market is really grappling with trying to understand what the real narrative is between now and the end of the year. you know, on the one hand, if inflation is accelerating, then we would have a very different playbook in our head, and if demand is faltering, or if things are just fine and that's why companies who are beating are doing well i think that's the confusion but at the end of the day, i think as much as it feels bad because april was a down month, i still think [ inaudible ] it may be a month the market does well the rest of the year. >> definitely leaning on some seasonality trends to get additional clues as to where we might go this summer thanks good to see you as always. tom lee. we are looking forward to hearing from tom at the cnbc financial adviser summit in may '22. scan the qr code or register at

cnbcevents.com/fa for more apple is the latest magnificent seven name that will be reporting earnings. those results coming later this afternoon after the close. let's get over to steve covac in cupertino and, obviously, has a lot more on what we can expect later today. steve? >> hey there, david. yeah looking to be another down quarter here for apple revenue expectations down about 4.7% according to the street, and that's following the quarter, last quarter, december quarter, where apple returned to growth after the full year of declining sales. so what's going on here? china is really the big thing in focus. we saw in the december quarter overall sales not just iphone but sales were down 13% and since then, throughout the year, we've just gotten all this troubling data coming out of china, counter point esearch o note saying, iphone sales in china down about 19% and then you look at huawei here i'm showing you it was up 69% and we're seeing just lots of evidence here that folks are -- in china are going towards the

huawei phones instead of iphones. also some interesting comments from qualcomm yesterday on their earnings showing 40% growth in their android handset business out there in china, also pointing to huawei another question about artificial intelligence, of course we heard whifs out here three months ago, a huge artificial intelligence announcement, expecting that to come on june 10th after a developers conference here in cupertino today we're hanging on to any word tim cook says that could fill in the gaps and color in how apple is thinking about artificial intelligence. that's a good narrative, the peers and big tech and magnificent seven, we'll be watching out for that. on the positive side we have services services has returned to double-digit growth see a lot of strength in the app store, so one bright spot here as iphone sales continue to slump, and we get through this messy iphone

cycle for apple. services are growing healthy again. >> steve, big piece in "the washington post" look at consumer sentiment around apple in china and they cite a bunch of shoppers' comments on weibo, saying i won't ever buy the fruit, meaning apple again, out of vanity. go huawei, go domestic products. i guess we'll look for response from apple on that kind of stuff. >> yeah. exactly. and, you know, over and over again, in the last couple quarters here, i've asked tim cook specifically about huawei what they're doing it was to apple's advantage when huawei had to stop making phones there for a couple years, apple saw an enormous benefit of people switching from huawei to iphone, now we're seeing it go the other way. that puts pressure on apple in the next iphone cycle to have some really interesting features and compelling reason for people to go back to those phones it's also a similar thing we've heard from the domestic carriers, carl, that people just aren't upgrading their phones in

the same way that they have. so that's something else we have to pay attention to, guys. >> apple is having a good day so far. 1.25% into earnings. >> up 1%. >> yeah. after the break, carvana tikick off our ceo special this hour, how this environment will impact the auto mark. suat stock jumping 40% post relts. big hour still ahead don't go anywhere.

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and they're all coming? those who are still with us, yes. grandpa! what's this? your wings. light 'em up! gentlemen, it's a beautiful... ...day to fly. check out shares of carvana

surging more than 30%, posting a record first quarter is it a sign of strength in the used car market, consumers spending higher for longer in the inflationary economy let's talk to the founder and ceo of carvana, ernest garcia joins us it's great to have you it's hard to believe that this was a company -- on the brink. how did you turn it around so fast >> well, i think the first thing i have to do is thank the team two years ago as you said we were in a tougher spot than today and we knew we had a comeback in front of us but a lot of work to do. i think the way the team came together and didn't wait and force it to happen was really incredible and something that we'll be forever grateful. to the team at carvana thank you so much. i think our results this quarter were the best we've had in our history and i think financially that's true, but more importantly, the implications for the future, that's true. i think we're in a great

position and we've got a huge runway in front of us. now we have to attack that. >> on the profitability because that was a bright spot especially for analysts and investors, gross profit per unit beating estimates, ebitda two times above consensus and guidance calls for more growth how are you driving revenue growth, but also prioritizing the profitability story? >> sure. what i think -- there's two things that are i think the most important to building a great business over time one is you have to have an offering that is differentiated the customers love that's hard to replicate and i think we've built that out it's been a ton of work but laid the foundation for that and in a great spot number two, you have to have great people that are builders that come in every day and try to make things better and when you have builders you're not making tradeoffs between growth and profit pbltsp you're finding ways to do both and that's what team has done. we have to keep doing that we're in a great spot and really excited. >> what is driving the growth. it's not a growth market right

now used car industry, is it >> so i think, you know, from 2013 to 2021 we grew at fast rates. the precovid year of 2019 we grew 100% and i think that growth was driven by two major forces one was consumers shifting preferences to wanting buy cars online in a simpler way and a shift in our direction i think two, was we were always benefitting from positive feedback as we grew our best business and inventory consumers had inventory. in 22 and 23, went the other way, car prices went up, rates up, affordability was worse and were suffering negative feedback we're in a spot i think we're seeing consumers come back as we've kind of stabilized and we have relatively flat inventory and relatively flat marketing spend in a stable environment, carvana's position to do well. >> it's david, you know, it's fascinating to watch this in part because there was such an opportunity, frankly, for people

to have made an enormous amount of money if they had been brave enough to step into your shares not long ago as sara said at the outset, there were talks of bankruptcy and the like what do you believe was sort of the turning point for you not just in the business, but also putting your financial house in order? was it when apollo came in was there something else you could point to i'm just curious, because it can be a helpful lesson for people in the future? >> well, you know, i think reality's complicated and narratives are simple. simple narratives can turn quick. in 2021, we had an incredible runway and we were going to build a big company. in 2022 when things didn't go our way, the narrative switched 0 interest rate phenomenon and only able to grow by giving customers deals we wouldn't support with the economics of the business in the long run and i think the major turning point was people inside carvana saying, that narrative shift isn't right and it's okay that world out there is going to tell that story that's not something we're in control of what we are in control of is how

the business actually performs we put together plans we've been running the last two years that required a ton of work from a ton of people that were dedicated, that cared, came in every day and fought and made a ton of progress and that was the turning point. i think along the way there were notable, you know, moments that were visible from the outside, but i think the most important things were things happening internally and what team was doing. >> speaking of the narrative on zero rates, what are you seeing right now in terms of delinquency and pressure on the consumer because of higher rates in autos which we have tracked and gained a lot >> so i think, you know, we have rates clearly higher car prices higher. everything higher. all constant strain on people. we would love to see car prices go down. as we discussed earlier the most important thing for us is a stable environment because we think we've got a great offering and a great team and we think with stability we can kind of keep marching forward.

i think the toughest view from an economic perspective that we feel like we saw over the last couple years was consumer credit performance, but i think us and frankly many others, across consumer credit have tightened credit quite a bit in the last six to 12 months and i think the performance there looks pretty good i don't think there are signs that are super troubling right now. and, you know, we're rooting for stability and whatever form it comes we're going to keep marching forward. >> what about the delinquency rates. are they rising? >> i think across most of consumer credit delinquency rates and chart offs were rising in '22 and '23 they were generally still at levels that were pretty good historically, but they were moving in the wrong direction and i think for most issuers, ourselves included, they started to go back in the right direction over the last six months or so as most have tightened credit a bit. >> can you keep this kind of growth up? retail units sold 16%. you expect you said to increase at an even faster pace sounds like you have confidence? >> we're confident and we're excited. i think our goals have always

been we want to be the largest, most profitable auto retailer, sell millions of cars. that sounded audacious from the perspective of when we started in 2013 or perspective of 2022 when the story was different but it's the view we've always held and we have a lot of work to do but we're going to do the work and make that happen. >> ernie, thank you. >> thank you we appreciate. >> ernest garcia, ceo of carvana. >> thanks. meantime ch robinson top gainer on the s&p beating estimates on the top and bottom lines despite what their ceo calls an elongated freight recession with an oversupply of capacity more on the movers you might have msed eniswh "squawk on the street" continues after this break. in any business, you ride the line between numbers and people. what's right for the business and what's best for everyone who depends on it. solving today's challenges while creating future opportunities. it takes balance.

cla - cpas, consultants, and wealth advisors. we'll get you there. ♪ (alarm sound) ♪ amelia, turn off alarm. amelia, weather. 70 degrees and sunny today. amelia, unlock the door. i'm afraid i can't do that, jen. ♪ (suspenseful music) ♪ why not? did you forget something? ♪ (suspenseful music) ♪ my protein shake. the future isn't scary. not investing in it is. you're so dramatic amelia. bye jen. nasdaq-100 innovators. one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com.

welcome back i'm silvana henao with your cnbc news update. donald trump's criminal hush money trial in new york began today with a hearing on the former president's gag order violations it comes after the judge fined

him $9,000 on four violations, but prosecutors are -- trump ignoring a court-imposed order cannot attack witnesses and jurors. arizona's governor is expected to sign a repeal -- ban of nearly all abortions. yesterday two republican state senators joined democrats to push the appeal through, however a procedural step could prevent the repeal from taking effect until 90 days after the state's legislative session ends unless a court steps in to speed it along. a whistleblower who came forward to accuse boeing supplier spirit aerosystems of ignoring defects on the 737 max has reportedly died. joshua dean's family tells the seattle times he passed away after a sudden infection a couple months after boeing whistleblower john barnett was found dead of an apparent suicide. david? i'll send it back to you thank you. still ahead another read on the consumer in retail we'll have the ceo of ebay join

us after the break shares under a bit of pressure after guidance came in a bit lower than anticipated we will talk about the numbers and have guidance about the economy broadly speaking stay with us

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welcome back to "squawk on the street." apple's results after the bell tonight. let's get to dominic chu with a look at the technicals and where the street stands. trying to get back above the 50 day. >> it is we're hovering around there, just about $172 and change we're talking about a stock the second biggest one in the s&p 500, second only to microsoft, that has been an underperformer. the blue line over the year to date period down 11% or so, meanwhile the technology sector is up 1.5% and the broader s&p 500 is up about 5.5%

technology has been an under performer in some ways, but apple has been leading that downside in the overall shares for the magnificent seven. now, the analyst take from wall street's perspective is still one where they see about 15% upside from where we are the average analyst target price on the street right now is currently $196.84 according to data from fax set that implies 15% from upside levels the buy, hold and sell picture is murky a little over half, 57% of analysts have a buy rating the hold rating to 32 and the sell has been 11 it's been this way four or five months at this stage contrast that to microsoft 95% of analysts who cover that have a buy or equivalent rating something to watch there the dynamic between apple and microsoft. and carl mentioned the technicals 172 is where the 50-day average price on a rolling basis is here and you can see we're hovering at that level right now. go up to maybe around the $181

level is where the -- the 200 day moving average sits. we're trying to figure out if there's going to be a move of some sort to get above the blue line resistance for a while. keep an eye on that. by the way, if you're wondering, david, on where the options market is pricing things right now, options prices are currently implying what could be a plus or minus roughly 4% move, for apple, on the heels of earnings you contrast that with the last eight quarters worth of up and down moves where it's roughly 3.5%, so the street is expecting right now, pricing in a slightly more volatile earnings report this time around, david. i'll send things back over to you. >> thank you dominic chu back at our headquarters. >> stick with our read on inflation and the economy. move on to ebay, the shares under a bit of pressure after the company reported an earnings beat it was guidance that came in a bit weaker the ceo told analysts on the call that the consumer in the

u.s. is in better shape than europe after jay powell signaled the chance any further rate hikes are, quote, unlikely joining you the ebay ceo good to have you it's been a while. let's start off with we like to focus on stocks here as you know stock is down a bit. the guidance, why was it a bit below what analysts had anticipated both for beat and revenue? >> strong start to the year. we beat expectations across the board on gmv, revenues and earnings per share and reiterated what we said in february, we see us turning to positive growth in q3 or q4 of this year. so really underlying that our strategy is working. when you look at our focus categories, where we're investing, david, those grew 5% this quarter, 6 points faster than the rest of the marketplace, and we're building game changing innovations across the board. we feel great about the guidance we put out there and great about the underlying momentum we're seeing in the business.

>> essentially saying whatever the second quarter brings it's going to be made up in the second half of the year, but again, why, you know, the analysts get their guidance from you, they were higher than anticipated for the second quarter. is there some weakness that you're seeing that had not been fully communicated >> no. we're exactly where we expect it to be. when you look at what we put together back in february and where wur now, we reiterated what we see for the back half of the year what's important is that yawn lying, if you look quarter over quarter for the last eight quarters we've had improving trends in our gmv growth and that's shown up and really based on our strategy that we have that we're driving which is to reinvent the future of a commerce for enthusiasts great new innovations launching this quarter and excited about the future for ebay. >> it can give us a read on the global consumer as well given a lot of your business is also outside the u.s. on the call you said, again, strong q1 results.

you did say we continue to navigate what you call ongoing challenges in the global economy and didn't elaborate can you do that here what are the ongoing challenges you're seeing? >> yeah. uk and germany those markets are softer than the u.s. when you look at e-commerce growth rates in those markets, they're negative for this quarter which puts our result into light in terms of what we're driving in gmv growth which shows you that our strategy is working in those markets. in germany we made significant changes in our c to c business a year ago and now that we're more than lapping that time period, we're seeing positive growth in our consumer to consumer business which is great. we launched a, bunch of new features in the uk designed around fashion, we launched new buyer features, we launched streamline selling experience, new ai based features like shopts look in that market, so we're pushing forward what -- inside of what can be a challenging environment over in europe

>> yeah. i did want to ask about your strategy you've been on this focused category approach looking at trading cards and luxury handbags because it's crowded, you know etsy is getting hit. questions about temu and shein which have entered the u.s. market aggressively and amazon and where ebay fits and whether those categories are long-term growth categories or sort of more fatty they were popular during covid but i'm curious what the path looks like from here >> yeah. we're seeing game changing experience into our focus categories where we build to have the highest in those, the highest consumer satisfaction, we see gmv follow in our focus categories we're growing 5% this quarter. we have big categories like our parts and accessories business for vehicles is over $10 billion, and that's growing mid single digits. it's because ebay has the benefit of massive scale

131 million buyers, $73 billion of business, and we have the benefits of cross-category shopping when a parts and accessory buyer comes in, they not only buy $400 in parts and accessories, but $800 in categories across the site we have 30% of our business focused categories growing at 5% and we continue to invest in that game-changing experience. >> jamie, i know ai, of course, becoming more a part of your business, generative ai, as so many others. last quarter you announced the first phase of the magical listing feature, which writes descriptions using generative ai how is that working out? is it hallucinating at all or generating accurate descriptions >> it is fabulous, david customers love it. not having to write the descriptions is now live for 100% of customers across all of our service and 90% of people are using it and loving it what's even better, though, is

the next stage in beta which does everything for you. think about selling a trading card before. you would have to fill out the title, this is a steph curry card from 2009 his rookie year, warriors, write the description. the new version of what we have, you just take your camera out from your phone, hold it up to the trading card, we magically figure out everything about that card and fill in all of the items specific, write the description, tell you the best way to price and ship it so you can be done in second. this is a game changer for ebay because the average household has $4,000 of items that could be sold online and less than 20% of that is online. so we're making it so easy that you can do that in seconds for a trading card or a book or a handbag that you're selling on the platform we've got this out to a small percentage of users and they say wow, this is magical and going to allow us to bring more of our listings to ebay we're excited for the next version. >> when do you bring it in more broadly as an opportunity for

all those people >> it's 5% of users today and coming months and quarters we'll scale that up to everybody across ebay and it's going to be a game changer for us. >> maybe time for me to finally find all those baseball cards. they're somewhere. jamie, thank you for the update. always appreciate it good to see you again. >> thank you, david. we're not done getting the pulse of the consumer here on "squawk on the street. up next we'll talk some food with the ceo of kellov tana,he spinoff of kellogg's snacks business with his read from the ground in a moment trash talk. i'd rather work on saving for retirement. or college, since you like to get schooled. that's a pretty good burn, right? when it comes to investing, we live in uncertain times. some assets can evaporate at the click of a button. others can deflate with a single policy change. savvy investors know that gold has stood the test of time as a reliable real asset.

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coming up at 11:00, a round trip over the last year for investors in first solar shares turning negative on the year this morning we'll break down the quarter on "money movers." stocks this hour, we're higher across the board not huge gains, but technology is leading along with energy stocks

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. kellanova shares rallying after a by higher prices althou it saw 5% decline, noting soft category demand in the region on the call the ceo joins us to discuss the quarter. good to have you back, as always. >> great thanks for having me, carl >> we're definitely on watch for signs of a price-weary consumer, but taking five points of price in north america doesn't sound too bad. >> no, you know, unfortunately, it's the continuation of price that we had to take when commodities really soared over the course of the last 18 months i think the worst is behind us when i say worst, the necessity price. the consumer is under a lot of pressure this time last year they had snap benefits they don't have anymore. this time last year gas was

cheaper. everything is more expensive now. so, other focus is on affordability and making our programs work very hard and not to have to take any more price. >> so, that kind of rhymes with a lot of what we've heard in the fast food business the last couple of days i guess my question would be, do the next couple of quarters look promotional and what does marketing spend do if you have to communicate that new message? >> yeah, we're back to levels we were almost pre-pandemic when it comes to merchandising quality activity our advertising is actually up and will continue to be up part of getting on of to a strong start this year really gives us the ability to continue to lean into our investments we're leaning more into the digital investments we're making we're leaning much more into the advertising investments into consumer promotions that really add value because, again, we think about our consumer first and foremost and delivering value with brands they love is our job

>> you think we graduate into a period where we start talking about price wars, at least in different categories >> i don't think so, carl. everything that we see, you know, really suggests a continued rational level of performance. you know, consumers love our brands they love to buy our brands because of the types of messaging that we put out there. so, it doesn't have to be price wars when you're really adding value to the consumer at the start. and, you know, when you look back at periods of high inflation coming off high inflation, we've never really seen the type of price degradation that would suggest a price war happening in the past. no guarantee it doesn't happen in the future. in terms of our brands, we look to add value with the consumer, with everything that's in the box in terms of delighting them with the actual product itself and the type of messaging we have out there so they can continue to engage with our brands in meaningful ways. >> with pressure on the consumer and your price is elevated, steve, are you seeing consumers trade down to more generic, you

know, private label brands i noticed just this week, walmart, the largest grocer in the country, is offering new private food brand they're clearly looking to gain share. >> yeah, sharara, it's a very g question you mentioned walmart are getting better and better at promoting and putting really good products out there for their consumers. that's wonderful in our categories we see a very low level of penetration in private label and we really have not seen meaningful change going all the way back to 2019 when we look at our brands it's not to say that across other categories you don't see meaningful rises in private label, but for us, you know, we're in a period now where we have good share momentum, actually, coming out of increased investments in our brands we're seeing that across our pringles brand, our pop-tart brands, many of our brands.

>> steve, there was a report out shortly ago from reuters citing sources about a firm called tom's capital taking a significant position maybe a top five shareholder, from what i understand they've been in campbell's in the past, they did work on colgate, trying to get them to separate the company i'm curious from a point of view you may have an activist in your shares, there are those that argue your stock underperformed by a significant amount, they think you deserve a higher multiple, and that you, you know, have not been able to perform and execute as well as others have. how do you respond to that if, in fact, this becomes more of a fight? >> yeah, david, you know, i'm not going to comment on any individual share owner, obviously. we talk to all of our share owners as they show interest in speaking with us what i would say is some headlines you just referenced, we can go back and share the data with you in terms of how we would perform versus center of store, food peers and we perform

very well. when you look at how we perform versus what we would call our snacking peers, not so well. we did the transformation of the company where we spun off our north american cereal business yes, you could argue our multiple had a a gap between where we are today and where those snacking peers are, which is exactly why we did what we did. when you think about today, the share price is performing well today because we did exactly what we said we were going to do there was a number of analysts and investors who said, kellanova is a show me story and we did that last quarter, we did that again this quarter in terms of growing our top line at ways that are exciting, growing our margin in ways that are exciting and doing more than the market expected us to do. in fact, more than we expected ourselves to do. when we look at the rest of this year, and i talked about it in our call today, we got off to such a good start that we have meaningful ability to continue to make investments to ensure this is an exceptional year from

a top line and a bottom line. >> why not raise guidance? you said you were doing better than you expected. why not raise guidance given this first quarter came in above plan >> we could raise guidance or take a prudent approach and say there are still three-quarters left not raising guidance gives us the financial flexibility to do things like i just mentioned, which is really invest even more in our brands to make sure this virtual cycle we find ourselves in continues i'll give you one example. friday netflix is launching jerry signfield's new movie "frosted." it's a hilarious movie i was with jerry for the premiere we have jerry pop-tarts hitting store shelves right now. that wasn't in our plan. we saw the opportunity and we're launching a program of millions of incremental dollars against pop-tarts because we have the financial flexibility to do that we are very, very optimistic about this year and very optimistic about our performance

going forward. any investor who got in our stock in the last six months, congratulations to you you made an exceptional choice >> well, if signfield does for pop-tarts what barbie did for the barbie brand, look out steve, we'll check in with you on that down the road. thanks >> thanks for having me, guys. >> to be continued we'll continue to watch that story as well in terms of tom's capital in the shares. as for the overall market, we have the s&p up about a third of 1%. a lot more market coverage for you straight ahead

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