if growth is higher but you are not considering rate increases does that imply you are more worried about causing the economy to slow too much than you are about inflation taking off again? >> no. i think that we believe our policy stance is in a good place and appropriate to the current situation. we believe it is restrictive. the evidence, we went over it earlier. inflation market and spending. demand has come down a lot over the past now years. and that is, that's more for monetary policy. the supply side, things that are happening are on the supply side that is how we think about it. thank you, mr. chairman. edward lawrence, it feels like a steady state and we have 3% inflation so if the data remains the same that you are seeing, and i know you say you

don't see a rate hike it would stand to reason you would need the rate hike to get from 2 to 3. was there discussion about a rate hike in today's and are you satisfied with 3% inflation for the rest of the year? >> well, of course we are not satisfied with 3% inflation, 3% can not be in a sentence with satisfied. we will return inflation to 2% over time. but it is overtime. we think our policy stance is appropriate to do that. so if we were to conclude that policy is not sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation to 2% then that would be what it would take for it to increase rates. we don't see that, we don't see evidence for that. that is where we are >> was there a discussion about a rate hike at all? >> the policy focus has been on really been on what to do about

holding the current level of restriction. that is really, that is part of the policy, that is where the policy discussion was in the meeting >> follow up on the 3%, time frame of persistence inflation that would trigger a rate hike? >> there is no rule. you can not look to a rule. these will be judgment calls. you know, clearly restrictive monitoring policy needs more time to do its job. that is pretty clear based on what we are seeing. how long that will take and how patient we should be it will depend on the totality of the data and how the outlook evolves. you talked about your commitment to being a-political and nonpartisan. i was wondering given an election year is the bar for rate changes higher close to an election and similarly, is there a significant economic difference between starting to

cut in say september vs december? >> so, we are always going to do what we think the right thing for the economy is when we come to that consensus view. that is our record, that is what we do. we are not looking at anything else. it is hard enough to get the economics right here. these are difficult things and if we were to take on another set of factors and use that as a new filter it would reduce the likelihood we would get the economics right that is how we think about it around here. we are at peace over it. we know we will do what we think is the right thing when we think it is the right thing. we will all do that. that is how everybody around here thinks. so, i can not say it enough that we just don't, we just don't go down that road. if you go down that road where do you stop? so we are not on the road. we on the road serving all the american people and making our decisions based on the data and how the data effects the

outlook and the balance of risks. >>. >> reporter: and then is there a difference in the start? >> there is a difference between an institution that takes into account all sorts of political events and one that doesn't. that is where the significant difference is. we just don't do that. you can go back and read the transcripts. this is my fourth election, fourth presidential election. read all of the transcripts and see if anybody mentions in any way the pending election it is not part of our thinking. not what we are hired to do. i don't know how you stop if you start down that road. >> reporter: thank you, chair powell. question about the labor market. you mentioned a few times the labor mark set normalizing, today's jolt suggested things are getting back to prepandemic levels, one thing that has not, wage growth, that is stronger than before the pandemic.

can you share your analysis of why that is happening, a lagging indicator or something else going on?? >> if you look back, all wage measures have come down to that. but, they are not, not down to where they were before the pandemic. they are still roughly a percentage point higher. we have seen progress but not uniformly. you will note the eci reading from tuesday was, it was expected to be, to have come down and essentially it was flat year over year, you know, i think, roughly. so, i mean it is, that part of it is bumpy. again, we don't target wage increases but, you know, in the longer run if you have wage increases running higher than productivity would warrant than, you know, there will be

inflationary pressures. employers will raise prices over time if that is the case. so we have seen progress. it has been, you know, inconsistent. we have seen a substantial decline overall. we have a ways to go on that. . rates are up, car loans, credit cars, people looking to borrow are discouraged that is reflecting on their views to the economy. what would you say to them? >> the thing that hurts everybody, and particularly, people in the lower income brackets, is inflation. if you are a person who is living pay check to paycheck and suddenly all of the things that you buy, the fundamentals

of life go up in price you are in trouble right away. and so with those people in mind in particular, what we are doing is we are using our tools to bring down inflation. it will take some time. we will succeed and we will bring inflation back down to 2% and people will not have to worry about it again. that is what we are doing and we know it is painful and inconvenient. the dividends will be very large and everyone will share in those dividends. we made quite a lot of progress if you think about it. i think headline, core cpe peaked at, at 5.8, now it is -- any way, it peaked at 7.1 now it is at 2.7. i don't want to get that wrong. m [ laughter ] >> no, you don't. >> i mean, i think, i think restrictive monetary policy is doing what it is supposed to do. but it is in this case,

unusually working alongside and with the healing of the supply side. it was what was different this time a big part of the inflation and a reason why we are having this conversation is that we had a supply side collapse with shortages and bottlenecks and all of that kind of thing. this was to do with the shutting down and reopening of the economy. and other things that really raised demand. so, many factors did that. so i think now you see those two things working together. the reversal of those, the supply and demand from the pandemic and the response to it along with restrictive monetary policy. those two things are working to bring down inflation, remember, how far we have come, ways to go, work to do. we are not looking at the high inflation rates that we were seeing two years ago..

>> reporter: thanks for taking our questions, chair powell. i wanted to follow up on something you mentioned earlier on housing inflation. there has been this long awaited disinflation and shelter that still has not arrived. i guess two questions, how do you explain the lags between some of the private sector data we are seeing and the government data. and how confident are you that rents will be helpful in the inflation front in the coming months? >> so, essentially there are a number of places in the economy where they have lag structures built in. housing is one of them. so, when you have, when you, when someone goes -- a new person goes to rent an apartment that is market rent. you can see market rents are barely going up at all. inflation in those has been low. before that, they were

incredibly high. they led the high part. what happens is it takes years to get all of the way into rents for tenants that are rolling over their leases. landlords don't tend to charge as much of an increase to a rollover tenant for whatever reason. what it does it builds up an unrealized portion of increases when there have been big increases. it is complicated but the story is, it just takes time for that to get in. i am confident as long as market rents remain low this is going to show up in measured inflation. assuming that market rents do remain low. how -- what will be the timing of it? i think we learned the lags are longer. significantly longer than we thought at the beginning, confident it will come but not in the timing of it. yes, i expect that this will

happen. >> thanks. >> thank you, chair powell for taking questions. it seems over the past three to four years the economies and central banks in develop markets have been on more or less the same trajectory, easing during the pandemic, inflation on the way out. feels like it may end in 2024. based on europe and japan and central from the central banks as well. my question is, what considerations or risks does a period of more divergent trajectory and central bank present? >> . >> you are right. i think that may happen. we all serve domestic mandates, right. the difference between the united states and other countries that are considering rate cuts they are not having the kind of growth we are having. they have, their inflation is performing about like ours or a little better but they are not experiencing the kind of growth

we are experiencing. we have the luxury of strong growth in a strong labor market, low unemployment and job creation and all of that. we will be patient. we will be careful and cautious as we approach the decision to cut rates. where as i think other jurisdictions will go before that. in terms of implications, obviously markets see it coming, it is priced in now. so i think the markets and economies can adapt to it. and i think, you know, we have not seen in addition for the economy we have not seen the turmoil that was more frequent 20 years ago, 30 years ago. that is partly because emerging markets have better margin framework and inflation, they are navigating this pretty well this time.

>> thank you. you sort of backed away from the notion that the economy would need to encounter pain for inflation to come back down. but given sticky inflation data in the first quarter can disinflation still happen along relatively painless path for the economy or is some softening in the labor market and the economy likely needed to bring inflation back down? >> so you are right. i think we thought in, most people thought there would have to be probably a significant dislocations somewhere in the economy, perhaps the labor market to get inflation all of way down from the high-levels that it was at. that did not happen. that is a tremendous result. we are very gratified and pleased that has not happened. if you look at the dynamics that enabled that, it really was, it was that so much of the gain was from the unwinding of the things that were not to do with monetary.

but the distortions to the economy, you know, supply problems, supply side problems and some demand issues as well. the unwinding helped it. i am not giving up on that. i think it is possible that those forces will still work to help us bring inflation down. we can not guarantee that it is true. we are trying to use our tools to keep the economy well. we will bring inflation down to 2%, we hope we can do it without significant dislocations in the labor market or elsewhere. >> speaking of dislocations in the labor market, in

>> it almost feels to me like he is hoping that the inflation data comes down without a rate hike. and i guess he feels that the lack of progress, as he chained -- framed it during the first quarter will be transitory. so we will see, with oil prices at $80 a barrel, i'm not sure we see the inflation numbers come down in a sustainable way below 3%. particularly not on the core numbers. so the markets, as you correctly pointed out, they love this because there is fear of a large, suggestion of maybe contemplating a rate hike and that absolutely did not happen. and so you saw everything go vertical to the upside, stocks went up a lot, bonds went up a lot. we had corporate bonds and day

they are not significantly in the green. so this is an interesting thing, because the big pivot started, everybody getting happier with november 1st and interestingly, rates are up a little bit since then, but not very much. so we basically had rates go up and come back down and go back up again. we've definitely been in a trading range for the markets and recently, -- as well. and this meeting and press conference suggest to me that is going to be sustained. >> it certainly sounded like, i guess we could say and not yet share versus a not at all chair. at least when it comes to rate cuts. i want to note going in, that goldman is sticking to its view of two cuts because they say the two pillars of inflation are intact. those lacking housing data and the fact we don't have more supply shocks.

i'm curious as to what your take is now. when do we get the first cut and how many will we get this year? >> it seems unlikely we are going to get three, that was back in march. i actually, based on what we are seeing inflation market and commodity prices which recently, but oil is up, i kind of feel the best case now is one rate hike for this year. >> you mean cut. >> yeah, cut. got it backwards. i don't think it is coming in june. i don't see how that can possibly happen. there's just not enough data, and he certainly respect the fact, the lack of progress on inflation, that was not unanticipated, and you could say that because you cannot disrespect the data. it is what it is. but i thought when interesting take away that i got, was he mentioned that a couple of

tenths of the unemployment rate would not be a catalyst for easing. i had the feeling he needs the unemployment rate up to four, 4.2 even. so we will see what happens there. the unemployment rate has been up a little bit but clearly it is not the point where the inflation fight is less important as the dual mandate. the jobs part is behaving quite well. the inflation rate clearly is the one that is lacking progress, as you put it. i'm going to lean on one rate cut this year. i don't think three seems likely at all. that is where it is. i think that higher for longer, seems like the mantra continues. that without a rate hike. this is a pretty good environment. the type of strategy that we have been advocating and implementing, it seems like it

is going to keep working and working really well for the past six months. and that is, you can get pretty good yields by investing in securities that aren't that risky. i'm not talking about junk bonds or even single junk bonds. i'm thinking single-a, triple b, maybe double b and priced off of the short end of the curve or say off the two year or three year part of the curve where you can get yields that are in the mid-70s, without a lot of risk. and that seems like it is going to be a comfortable place to invest without a lot of volatility. so you want to take advantage of this inverted curve that is been inverted for a very long time now. conversion in the history of the bond market of modern times. and it looks like it is going to continue for a while so that means you can get decent returns without a lot f lost sleep. staying in sums credit securities but really pricing

up the short end of the curve. -- continue to do well. we like consumer receivables, parts of the real estate market, away from office. these things cannot generate 7.5 and even a percent, depending on the risk you are willing to take. and once again with some uncertainty, having developed days days for retail investors, going back to trading a discount broadly and with leverage there's double-digit yields available without taking a ton of credit risk. so it seems like a good environment. for moderate risk assets, and it seems like we should probably not have a terribly volatile environment before the next fed meeting, which i know you are coming up to double on and it will be fun to do in person. >> i'm looking forward to that. what about the shorter end of the curve? maybe the belly of the curve.

even if it is all telling you but saying it i think the next move is a cut, and they are pretty much alluding to that. it is just a matter of when. so if you think that rates are going to go down later in the year, what about treasuries now? >> i don't like the long end of the treasury curve right now. we had been owning some long term treasuries that rallied a fair amount. from october. and now we are more interested in the 10 year than the 30 year treasury, linking the belly of the curve as you say pretty well. and pricing, and assets price off the two year and three year, you don't have to go. it is junkie credits. the high-yield bond market to a no default scenario basically in single-a securities. they are priced off the two and three year part of the curve. so that is likely. we have had a lot of changes in

portfolios since last we spoke. we have shortened our duration a little bit because we thought rates were a little bit too low and 10 year got into threes and we suspect that that was going to happen. but now we are up at 4.6 and we lost the five on the two year after the fed meeting, but those are attractive returns. for the risk you are taking and the volatility has really been there since november. the volatility bond market has pretty much dissipated. a couple of years ago rates were 200 basis points lower than today but they certainly have plateaued. we are basically at many parts of the curve close to where we were for the past six or seven months. so it is a low risk environment and that is appropriate that we got a big equity rally because everyone was scared. that the fed might mention a rate hike. and that absolutely did not happen. so i think we have to characterize the fed today versus expectations, perhaps yesterday as the incrementally

--. >> on that note i want to quickly go to steve. that is the take away, steve, and incrementally, more dovish, fed chair than the market was clenched up in fear of. >> i think there was pricing for a fad that was more likely to talk about rate hikes and that is not the case. and i think it was critical when paul answered my question and said, you know what, i have confidence in inflation coming down. let's listen to that. >> my expectation is that we will, over the course of this year, see inflation move back down. that is my forecast. i think my confidence in that is lower than it was, because of the data we have seen. >> so the idea being, i think as you said earlier scott, he said the next move being a hike

is unlikely. rate cuts are still possible. but it is worth talking about scott, when you asked whether three cuts this year are likely, we are in april so you know what, 30% of the year is gone and my question is, 30% less significant. what you want to be thinking about this over the course of a 12 month period, i don't think jeff stops his books on january 1 or december 31st. and it is interesting to look down at a one-year that is trending at 519. and you know what, if we get on the path that powell says we are going to be on, that might be a rich bond. right now in terms of how it is priced in terms of the yield being so high. and i am looking down the curve at 4.8 for next year. so it is time to start thinking about a longer period of time. that yeah we lost one or two cuts this year but over the cycle, over the next time, -- and their terms for the bond

market. that said, let's listen to everything powell is saying. is not -- the word used by jef , incrementally is a rightward. there's hawkish comments out there about the lack of progress and how cuts are not for sure. >> good points, as always. steve, thank you. that is steve leishman, senior economics reporter. back to you, the other moment i think that people are calling a moment, was powell addressing the s word, stagflation to which he said i don't know where that is coming from. i don't see the stack or the flation. >> i agree with it. i don't really understand people talking about stagflation at this moment. i heard someone on the radio this week actually say that the economy is shrinking and inflation is going up in real time. in a measurable way. obviously the economy is not

shrinking. 1.6 gdp isn't great, but it is certainly not shrinking. and we see that the gdp now for the second quarter, although it is very early, so it will probably get revised substantially but it is in the high threes. that the economy is not shrinking and the inflation rate, it might be at 3.5% but that is not exactly jimmy carter inflation, that is not 2022 inflation. inflation is clearly less. the thing that i think paul is onto correctly, is i think everybody, myself included thought that shelter inflation, rent inflation would come down faster than it did. because like the zillow index and the apartment indices, they came down multiple, multiple percentage points and they are down in like the twos, threes and fours, having been up in eight and nine. but he owner equivalent rent stays remarkably high. we have some home video from

yesterday that said home prices were up, depending on what zip code, and what district you are in but something like five to 8%, which sounds surprisingly high, given the low volume of turnover and the interest rates. but maybe it is a mixture. may be the data, maybe higher- priced homes are selling and that would actually make sense because it is a lower middle class that is really getting buried by this inflation. and these prices, while the inflation rate isn't that high, the crisis is high and we have weird things going on like insurance prices that are up massively, which are one of the reasons the cpi is so much worse looking than the pce. because we don't have, in the core area, these insurance prices and the shelter prices and pce, a substantially lower. so where i am right now, relative to the fed, is i'm going to be looking very, very

closely. as closely as you can possibly the at monthly inflation data and following the oil prices. i will be following commodity prices broadly, which had shown some strength but are now easing off and it is not to say it low. but we see three, 4/10 inflation , it is going to be very difficult for jay powell to make a statement that the next meeting that he's going to get inflation down to 2% and yet there is no need for any rate hikes. it is going to be difficult to call this inflation reversal or lack of progress transitory. come the june meeting and certainly the one after that. so that is going to be the story, i think, for the second part of the spring and into the summer of 2024. >> if you listen to powell's tone and sort of reading to the demeanor and such, he

definitely comes off exuding confidence, that he thinks they can pull this off. at this, being the soft landing because he does expect that growth is going to remain strong enough and inflation later in the year, is going to get down closer to the target. you have been looking for a recession. albeit suggesting that it was getting pushed out. you hold to that call, are you changing that? >> i'm on the fans. as to whether we get a recession in 2024, largely because the unemployment rate has been so stable. i would be very concerned if the unemployment rate went up another three or 4/10 and i think that would lead to a recession sooner, rather than later. but where we haven't had that happen yet. in spite of the fact there's been all these layoff announcements. it is weird that the weekly unemployment claims never changed. and here we have this economy that has absent flows and yet

we get the same on thursday with the unemployment claims and they come out almost exactly the same every week. my friend jim wrote a piece on the saying it is almost as equally impossible what is going on here, that it is always 212,000 unemployment claims every week, but those are the numbers, unless there's something wrong and they're going to be adjusted substantially. and there is evidence for that. there is data, the household data is a lot weaker, the establishment data. there is the ed data that tends to lead the establishment survey and that is looking strangely weak depending on what is happening. but for now, the layoffs don't seem days they seem to be offset by hiring so we have a labor market that is in balance even though it seems with the inverted curve and how long it is been inverted and these higher interest rates, you would think the economy would have weakened. that we have those distortions from the covid response. there's huge m2 supplies, way

above the trend that it would've been, if we had ot bulged up the m2, in 2021, 2022, we would've had much lower m2 supply than we have now even though it is not growing robustly anymore. so a lot of these things got way out of whack and it is taking longer and paula knowledged himself and i give him credit for that, that this normalization that is taking longer than anyone expected, including myself and including jay powell. i don't think -- we need the unemployment rate to go up, and it hasn't really happened yet. that is number two. number one is the inflation data. that needs to come down and i don't really have jay's confidence the inflation rate is going anywhere close to 2% by the end of 2024 on a year over-year basis. i don't care what you look at. you look at core or super core or pce. i don't see any of it going to

2% this year. >> on that note, you take the fed share edits word that it is 2% or bust, or do you think they would be willing, even though they don't say it, to accept a higher target now, rather than what the alternative might be, and that is to ruin a good story that they would like to be able to tell. >> i think he's doing a little slight of hand with inflation numbers as i said earlier. he's making the claim the inflation rate is in the 2%, 2.7. he cites the pce, and many other inflation measures are in the threes and fours. and you will remember the three month annualized trick that was behind the rhetorical pivots, back in november 1st, no one wants to talk about three months annualized now because it is not pretty at all. we have had cpi come in and 8/10 higher in the first quarter , on an annualized basis than what was anticipated three months ago.

so i think he's going to have to hike rates. unless this transitory lack of progress reverses. and i don't have the same level of confidence that he has, that that is going to happen. >> even with all of that one of the headlines, my take away from my conversation with you, is that jeffrey [ event concluded ] is bullish on risk assets, at least in the near term. >> moderate risk assets. i don't like really risky stuff because i think higher for longer it's going to start taking some of the bodies out. but i do think that in the medium risk assets, i am positive. at least until the next meeting. >> where would you put equities, for example on your scale? >> i am sort of neutral on equities but i have a very -- i don't like index fund approach at this time. i continue to like sort of

japan, mexico, india, as long- term holds and i don't like -- i'm a momentum guy and i know that momentum has been a winner for the last 18 months at least but i think it is not really leading the way anymore and i just think that evaluations, while not excessive, i think they are on the rich side. they really kind of need this sad story to play out. that i think for the near-term, we have to wait and see, with the time on our side because the fed has supported a lower volatility environment, for the next several weeks. >> speaking of momentum things, gold, you talked about oil for minute. we seem to be on this march toward 90. then the dollar, how about your outlook for all three, before i let you go. >> i have been bullish on goal. i talked about it on our roundtable in the first week of

january. i didn't think we would go up so quickly. it went up to 2400 in a blink of an eye. that is a pretty big run. but i would hang onto gold. i wouldn't be a seller. i would probably wait more like 2200 to be a buyer. but i think that is fine. i think the dollar is going to weaken but it is the recession weakening. and the near-term, the dollar appears to be stable, very stable versus other developed currencies. i don't have much opinion on the dollar. and what was the other? >> oil. >> oil? oil seems very, very stable at about $80. i think if oil went to 90, as you suggested or certainly to 100, the fed is going to have a really big problem. so that is the biggest wild card out there in kind of the uncontrollable commodity markets and with oil, if it puts on another 10, 15, $20,

there is no chance you're going to get -- as jay powell is hopeful for. >> jeffrey, we will leave it there and the next time we meet will be in person as you say at double line in los angeles after the next inning. i look over to that. but sounds great. we will have a good time..com everybody. >> we will see you then. let's bring in liz young, welcomed. >> thank you. >> other markets, they have gains on the dow. remember the s&p was good for a good chunk of 1%. it is giving a lot of it back, if not all of it. what do you make of what you heard today? but what i think happened before this meeting as the market had priced in powell's comments from a couple weeks ago when he clearly stated when he reiterated today, which was with tina lack of progress. this is going to take longer than we previously expected but then we heard today was it's going to take longer but we are

going to get there. i'm confident it is working, restrictive policy is restrictive enough and the effects of it are finally being seen. so the calmness the market has, that yields have and equities have, largely are due to the fact that we did start pricing in the possibility of a hike sooner rather than later. >> you are starting to get worried about that. >> absolutely. >> are the fears conflict >> for the time being. the other thing we haven't really talked about and he pointed out that he wanted to wait an entire quarter of data before they really made a statement on inflation. so now, instead of thinking about on a monthly basis for what the fed is going to do, we have to think about on a quarterly basis. they want to see trends in the data so if they are going to get confident to cut or hike, they are going to need to see three months at a time of data, to feel that way. >> i think it was citing the fact that they have had, you had three cpis that were hotter than expected as he termed that basically a quarter's worth of data, which is why it was

concerning. they are also working against the clock and the calendar because the election. they are not going to be faced, he says by necessarily the timeframe of that. they are not going to be political and he made the point yet again, as he has consistently done. but as i said to jeffrey, you have the feeling that this is a not yet. not, not at all venture in terms of cuts. >> today that's the case and i think today that is the right way to put it because they are just now getting what they want it. they wanted to see slower growth. you remember back to the things he was saying all of last year. at some point we need below trend growth in order to achieve our goal on inflation. so now we've got our first quarter of below trend growth and i think that is a good thing. that is what they want to see. but he did point out the underlying growth rate is still pretty strong. so if things continue at this pace, all he did today was reiterate, we have no reason to

cut yet. and i think the bar is very high for them to hike. but i am with gundlach that i am not as confident that he's going to -- that inflation will fall it is the to flee. -- precipitously. >> what you heard today, does that make you bullish on risk assets, equities and other things, then you were going in because you were fearful he was going to be hawkish? >> it does for the near-term, yes. because he allowed us a little bit more time to wait on this pause and markets do well during a pause. >> equipped break -- a quick break and liz young is going to stay with me. more reaction to today's decision at chair powell's news conference. let's not forget about apple, tomorrow is a busy week. we go into markets, next.

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the closing market, -- room

popping as a clear potential victim of any hawkish policy move and now they are getting a little bit of relaxation out of it. beyond that i'm not sure we have resolved much. >> popping handholding which is key for the russell whereas the s&p 500 -- the s&p 500 was up a full percent. now we are barely hanging on to what we have. >> but the russell was almost 2% a while ago. so it is obviously sort of in this -- sometimes it is the day after the fed meeting when you finally clear the deck and say,

here is the real reaction. >> list, what do we do? what is the most attractive thing that we like right now in the investment space? >> i find interesting and i'd be interested in your take on this, that a sector like utilities is leading today. we've got yields down, -- popping and yields had been up. so it is interesting, the definition of defensive and what investors are looking for her. are they looking for dividends, are they looking for safety and that is something that is a conundrum and i can't quite squared in the market. >> utilities have actually been in a bit of a rebound phase and kind of impervious to where yields were and some people almost see it as a leading indicator of maybe that yields are popping. but it is a washed out, massive negative flows a couple of months ago in utilities and it was interesting at the time because all of the power generation industrials were ripping to new highs. they could not buy enough of them and utilities that supply

the power were being killed. so it is more of a trade and maybe it is the market saying, yields have had their move for now. >> by the way, nasdaq down red, as the peanut red. the dow is good for 130 but we have seven minutes or so before the show ends so i guess you don't know and let's look ahead at the time we have to apple. tomorrow, it is going to be the last of the megas to drop the report. the others have been pretty good. >> most of them have been quite good in terms of what was reported. guided has been mixed. the good news about apple and i make this case constantly, which is not really about whether in terms of what is business performance is about other companies. certainly not more than we already know about the challenges in china. it is really about expectations and positioning leading into the report. i don't think expectations are particularly high here so i guess we will have to see. i'm more focused on microsoft which is bouncing today but it is absolutely had a back slide away from leadership. >> meta, doing quite well as is

amazon. you are looking at 2% gains respectively there. what do you think about apple tomorrow and the significance of getting these mega reports that were good, but then getting them out of the way. >> as we know, the first quarter earnings was heavily dependent on the seven up 70%, the fab five up 70%. that is where the earnings growth is coming from. >> that is where all of it is coming from so it is important those states strong and it is a good thing. but what i think will be interesting to watch and what investors need to take heed of is for a little while when everybody got nervous, we put the money back into the seven because that worked. as we go forward, and as policy stays as tight as it is and it doesn't seem like it is changing anytime soon, i think we have to look for, are companies that can internally finance their growth, not the one to have to go outside. that is important from a

quality perspective but it is important to look at companies giving you cash back. i think dividends are important because you want to have some of that study or stream. whereas it is not the same reaction where the yields fall and you've got this huge risk on behavior. it is risky, are not --. >> we will stay with that. might give you credit a -- credit for it. >> you cannot put all of your money in. it is not risk off and rest on. it is middling through. >> say we have earnings that are front and center in overtime and one of which is qualcomm. >> global smart shown -- according to idc. you have many on the street talking about smart phone recovery. until competitors posted earnings last night. sky works makes global chips and want of a weaker dog entered micro, samsung indicated -- in the june quarter as well.

that is likely hitting wireless suppliers like qualcomm. also revealed they lost market share in the upcoming iphone 1 , considering apple is a big customer. it is not good for sky works but it could be good for qualcomm because qualcomm is a customer. f qualcomm so the market share, that is something analysts would be looking for on the earnings call. this is a risk, owning wireless -- highly competitive with high customer concentrations. so if apple drops qualcomm, you can see massive moves. lastly, incidents -- investors will be looking for qualcomm commentary on independent levels and demand. >> i appreciate that, thank you. doordash, tell us. >> hey, scott. expected after the bell, outperforming uber but underperforming instacart on a 12 month basis so close to

uber. it will give an indication of consumer health, something that is top of mind right now. how much people are ordering and delivering but also grocery as it grows the business, it is not restaurant delivery business which has a lot of straight analysts excited. the street is expecting better margins of profitability on the back half of the years to watch guidance. this quarter however expecting a slower pace of sales and gop, that is gross order volume growth. -- top of mind as well. often it does provide some color so we will listen for that subscription revenue that the street does tend to love. back to you. >> thank you for that. we will see you and the numbers hit. micah, come back to you. this day began, let's not forget with starbucks and the shocker in terms of comps and the conversation. and s is a critical sign, the canary if you will in a consumer coalminer maybe we need to pay

attention to more slow consumer than we expected. doordash may give more, but we end with chair powell talking up the strength of the consumer even in the face of sticking inflation. >> and employment is what we are mainly looking at, first quarter expenditures which held up nicely. it is messy i think incrementally on the consumer side. not to starbucks, you have had this especially in food away from home, where they have said there's a lot more discernment. i take it as a net positive because we are worried about sticky inflation, we are worried about overheating economy, that has gone by the wayside. so i think in the end, when the dust settles in aggregate, earnings are probably going to be fine. it seems like the market expects them to be beat by huge market so the net move on them is not that great. the question i think to me is, are we going to have to really revise expectations for stamina

of the consumer in the six months, looking ahead and i don't think we know that. i don't think -- at this point, a standard consolidation after five straight up months, it doesn't mean it is over yet because i'm not sure we have fleshed out that sense that it could be a really quick and painless 5% setback and we are off to the races. >> you want to opine while i have you on one of the many moments from the fed chair on the stagflation question. i don't see the stag or the flation. that is the only rational conclusion. that was a phrase, created retroactively to describe a really unusual set of conditions, which is super high inflation and really no growth. can take shape. it won't foreclose the possibility that the economy

will somehow start failing on both. >> we have about 45ish minutes to react to the end of the fed chair's news conference. see you tomorrow. well, it was a bullish reaction to the fed's words but it faded fast into the close as the s&p ends lower. at the high up 1.2%. the action is just getting started. welcome to closing bell overtime. >> we have another jam packed hours of earnings including the results from qualcomm, doordash, et cetera see, zillow and more. howard lute nick joins us with his first take on the fed and when he thinks cuts could be coming