he was so confident that wbt would hang onto those rights. we will see. soon you will be able o eat, play and gamble at your local dave and busters restaurant. the arcade chain partnering to make a betting function on its mobile app with letting customers 18 and older make bets. we have to leave it there but dave and busters, you can go there, you can make some money to pay for your hamburgers. thanks for watching. power lunch. >> entertainment. closing bell begins right now. welcome to closing bell. i'm live here at the new york stock exchange. this make or break our begins of the countdown. amazon earnings, whether that report is just what this unsettled market needs. we ask our experts what to expect from the company when it delivers and a short period of time. in the meantime, the scorecard was 60 minutes to go in regulation, hotter than expected employment cost index, will that set yields up stocks downright from the jump today and it's been hard to recover.

russell 2000 is the biggest decline this afternoon and all of this happening, of course, just as the fed meeting gets underway and the chairman expected to carry a hawkish tone tomorrow afternoon. we shall see as we live up to that. it does take us to our talk of the tape. these necks, critical 48 hours beginning with those amazon numbers, yet another mega cap stock with a very hard by to get over. let's bring in our panel. mark of evercore. cnb secret contributor, kate rooney getting ready for that print, i'm going to throw a little bit of an audible, admittedly off the top, mark, i'm going to come to you first because we are going to talk about amazon and a second but i want to talk about alphabet right now because i just got dan loebs up third point, his ew investor letter in which he discloses a new position in alphabet. he says during the first quarter the funds made a substantial investment in that company and, mark, i want your

take on what he says was really a capitalizing on the disruption that this stock faced amid the swirling narrative around alphabet that they had missed out on ai. here's what he said. the concern that an nai world changes in the way consumers will eventually interact with their personal devices and the internet can result in risk to alphabets core business search is not entirely unfounded. alphabet, however, has both a substantial distribution and technology advantage over competitors in this position to use its ai capabilities to unify, enhance, and better monetize the entire suite of its products. he calls what happened with the gemini rollout, he calls it a blunder at a small operational misstep. i'm wondering what you think about this new position, the points that he makes, which is both pretty interesting in the timing of which is well. >> well, i don't think i could agree more. so, i made this one of our top

picks. i switched it with matter earlier this year for some of these exact same reasons that dan is bringing up. i thought there were too many overhangs on google. they would never control costs, they would never pay dividends. their fastest new growth days were behind them. they disproved that. they got youtube back up to 20% growth and they were perceived as genai roadkill. the gemini product is impressive. i've been using it for some time. of course it will be snafus here and there but they can work through those. as dan said, i'm written to it. they have these huge distribution brand advantages. everybody focuses on microsoft as the play for the digital ai assistant, the genai assistant. i've got a great genai assistant for you too on the consumer side, it's google given the entrenched position that they have. i could not agree more with what dan did. >> he calls the noise, that's

my word, the noise around the gemini blunder, again, that's the word that he uses in this investor letter dated today that it demoted the fact that the company has been building world-class capabilities in ai for over a decade and that that simply created an attractive entry point for a longer-term investor that google stands to benefit from the megatrend of ai. megatrend is the word he uses and that search is going to be increasingly important as a search of truth. >> amen. hallelujah. i think that is absolutely true. it's possible that google gets is intermediated. i understand the various concerns on google. they have this extremely strong dominant position, nothing could up and that unless you added technology shift. genai potentially is a technology shift. it is that google has been investing in genai, you know, they've been talking about this being nai first company for about seven years. so, they weren't late to the party. i think the party got started

and they got maybe a bit of a cake and they got it and i think this fired up google a little bit. i think all of that set up is correct. i like google here. now the risk reward is even stephen. earlier this year, it heavily favored google for smart, savvy investors like dan. >> to be clear, he points out as well the third point returned 7.8% in the flexion fund during the first quarter, meta-, big contributor to that. he has that too. amazon, a big contributor to that as well as microsoft and, by the way, he also reveals adding to their position in tsmc, that is taiwan semi. we can send that up there as well. again, around ai. daniel loeb is betting big on ai as many investors have been

doing. let's do this. let's turn our attention to amazon. that's where we were going to begin before we had this news which we wanted to bring you as soon as we possibly could. we have kate rooney. of course, i mentioned already, who's covering this earnings report after the bell was so much anticipation, kate, about it. what should we keep an eye out for most of all? >> yes, scott, so i think the ai story is key. he talked about that with google. amazon has been using earnings as a way to showcase what they are doing in ai. you saw this before they announced their chatgpt competitors. to be more widely ruled out. it's called q last quarter. they ruled out rufus which is a consumer facing ai on their e- commerce platform. you are expecting a lot about ai and how they will monetize it and how they will manage cap ex. it's been a huge conversation around big check earnings. they're walking a tight rope of, yes, analysts and investors are going to want to see the spending happening in ai. that's why they expected. you can go the meta-route and you can't overspend. they want to see monetization. tight rope and executives will have to watch.

that's by far and away the most important number to watch, that growth rate, 14.7% is the number to beat. you're going to want to watch that in terms of the stock reaction is what i'm hearing from analyst. i spoke to mark yesterday, shout out to mark. so, that's a big one to watch and the biggest eye from that margin. all of the spending that amazon has done over the past few years, that starting to be reflected in improving margins and that's going to be one of the big stories and the sleeper here, scott, is advertising. that's been another high margin part of the business. the prime video ads ruled out in this current quarter or the quarter were going to get to today, so, expect a little bit of detail around that and it could factor into results. we'll see. big day here. >> the news doesn't wait on any front. that's why i'm going to make you have a hard turn here. we are getting some news on your beach as well as you covers finance and the fallout here. what can you tell us as we learn about the sentencing here? >> this is big news. widely known as cz, one of the top executives in crypto was

sentenced to four months in prison, not years, months. this is for violating bank secrecy laws. the founder and former ceo of the global crypto exchange, he pleaded guilty to enabling money-laundering in november as part of the doj play. he agreed to step down as ceo. they said the largest crypto exchange in the world, it does continue to operate amid some legal issues for cz. the sentencing happened in seattle and comes after months of deliberation in the district by the judge. the guidelines were 12 to 18 months. this is lower than expected. u.s. prosecutors recommended assent is around three years and they sent this memorandum that sentencing wanted to reflect the gravity of the crimes and prosecuted called this unprecedented. they said he was operating on a wild west model which is one of the big criticisms that you hear. he was ordered to pay in the company was ordered to pay $4 million in fines. he's going to pay $50 million

himself. he is estimated to be worth around $33 billion. this is the second top crypto executive sentence just this year. we had the founder of rival exchange ftx which is bankrupt and its founder sentenced to 25 years. that was on fraud and conspiracy. convictions. he was found convicted. the second big name in this industry that is now sentenced to prison. >> i appreciate on all fronts. i'm going to let you go. i'm going to let you get ready for the big earnings report coming in overtime as i keep our conversation going with mark. i mentioned also we have our contributor, jason, he is a shareholder in amazon. all right, so, jason, good to see you as well. how are you eeling here? look, stock is up 72% in the

past year. there are those who say the bar is high and, maybe what happened last week with the earnings report from alphabet and microsoft raise the bar a little bit more. >> i would agree with that. i think the bar is high. to your point, google and microsoft did hit it out of the park. they delivered from an earnings perspective. as we look at, you know, what are we looking forward amazon report? kate alluded to it earlier. advertising is a $50 billion business. the addition of ads which was announced on january 29th was expected to be an $800 million business in 20 24. we will look at that, obviously, all the talk about aws and the acceleration there, he saw around 13 to 14% last quarter. at the lussier on 15 to 16% this quarter in growth. so, i like the trend where we are going. i think amazon is a beacon for the read on the consumer. i think, you know, they deal with all of them. low-end, middle end, and the higher and consumer. as we've

seen reports from visa and axp and the like, you know, we are hearing good things. so, i think this will be a good print to see where is the consumer and how are they doing and how is spending behavior? >> back to you, mark, aws is, obviously, the key here. the growth estimate there is 13%. let's be honest, they post 13, the stocks not going to be happy. the whisper number is up towards 15, 16 from what i gather. >> you're right. you're right. look, they did 13% last quarter. you have to show acceleration especially after a juror gave you acceleration citing ai and google cloud gave you acceleration too. they have to do at least 15% euro over year growth aws just to hold water. the market wants three things out of amazon this year.

i think it will get it. material acceleration and aws growth, record high operation margins and record high companywide free cash flow margins. i think they will get all of that. the only reason he would not, having covered amazon forever is if amazon decides enough of harvest mode we are back into an investment mode. that is coming, i just don't think it's going to come this year. be careful about that. >> that's a key point you raise. these are ai hopes and ai dreams and ai expectations from investors who at the same time don't want to revert back to spend at any cost no matter what the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow might be. >> well, the nuance here on amazon is that the good news for the free cash flow investors is that their retail cap ex was actually down last year first time and i don't know when, a decade? and it's likely to say -- stay flattish for the foreseeable future. they don't need to ramp that up. the aws will arise. it's crudely about half of

their cap ex spend. you're not going to have a big increase overall for the company that you would've had for the pure, digital names. that's one thing that actually works for the benefit of free cash flow investors. >> jason, how are you thinking about that question? >> yes, no, i think it is very important and i think mark pointed out. they have really done a really nice job and focusing on operating income, the bottom line of the story, not the timeline, they have invested in the fulfillment centers. they've invested in supply chains and that capex will be flat and margins have increased. i think there early on in the story in terms of increasing margins. we are expecting close to 9% and margin increase this year. i think that has been a strong focus at the helm and i think that puts them ahead of some of

the other players in the space. >> you still feel like the mega cap story is intact? >> well, yes, sure it is. if you look at the largest mega cap names, i mean, sorry, their fundamentals of gotten stronger this year. whether it's advertised retail, cloud, the three biggest verticals out there, those are all showing accelerating growth. you also have companies that are giving you margin expansion. they fired and no one is rehiring. then they're getting more responsible, more share holder friendly. everyone is buying back stock. the major ones i look at her paying a dividend's with the exception of amazon i don't thing it's going to change. from an investor perspective, these are stronger assets. i know we've had a rise in stocks, check yourself. meta-and google are trading a couple of turns higher. it's much longer and stronger

sustainable earnings growth. i think their evaluations are just fine and it sounds more stretchy but there you look at the cash flow, 25 times a free cash flow stills get you 25. this is one that can do a lot of rereading. that's why it's our topic. >> jason, how are you thinking about that issue whether this trade is still alive and well? to be quite honest, last week we had this upset over inflation and growth and lo and behold, we had mega caps come along with their earnings and save the day, so to speak. are we setting ourselves up for a similar scenario? not only this afternoon but who knows what apple is going to bring within the next couple of days as well. >> absolutely. i think the earnings growth remains in the mega capsbase.

we talked earlier about what google and microsoft delivered and, obviously, we're talking about amazon as they report after the bell. the print will be strong. there is follow-through going forward. as i mentioned earlier, they are in the early stage of some margin improvement. the retail business is obviously a very expensive business. they've done really well there respecting about 12% net improvement in sales this quarter. i think there is a lot to like. there's a lot of levers they could pull. there still decreasing headcount which i think is an important lever for them as they move forward. i continue to like that test bakes. cyclicals will play a role as well. i like the mega cap text. we will hear from apple, to your point, later on this week. they had other issues but i like what we've heard from the other ones that of already reported. >> me finish with you. if i may, to bring it full- circle to where we started this program and news from daniel third point that he has a new position in alphabet which you hold as well.

i love your opinion on having this level of company, if you will, in the name. i will reiterate what i've said on numerous occasions of late, narrative, relative to performance, mr. loeb cites that narrative, giving him an attractive entry point, well, if a lot of people saw the same thing they made some money because the narrative was there the losers, microsoft is the winner. if you look at the 12 month performance of both of those stocks, since the heart of the ai argument started to be on everyone's dinner table, alphabet has done fine. it's outpaced microsoft. >> 100%. alphabet is up 52% over the last year. if we look at the print from last week, i mean, operating income is up 46%. revenue growth was up 16%. we talk about the fumble with gemini early in the ai rate, obviously the ai armories as well and play and we are going

to see more capex there but as i see the default search engine, google being the default search engine and the opportunity that they have with their community and their user base, i continue to like google. again, there's a lot of leverage to pull here and they also like what is happening with the advertising business as it continues to grow sequentially quarter over quarter and, obviously, you know, what they are doing in the cloud business, obviously, the cloud business is up 30+ percent in this quarter. there's a lot of things to like about google and i continue to own the stock for some of the upward potential here. >> guys, i appreciate it very much. the dance of the top he or, we brought you this news of this new position from third point and alphabet. i appreciate you very much. we'll see you to soon. i should three curveball

too because you have covered the chips taiwan semi, right? adding to the position there, they just initiated it about one year ago. he says he sees a combination of cyclical recovery plus structural growth and ai demand fueling growth. you want to opine on that if you would? >> it reiterates what they said in the earnings call. non-ai segments would not do well in q1 and q2 but they do see the back half of this ear being strong. so, second half of this year will be the recovery period for a lot of these non-ai plays. i can understand. they make the chips for nvidia, every single player out there. they can stand to benefit from both sides of the equation. >> i appreciate it. you could tell me the other stocks are watching if you would like to. >> it's not chips. it's fun when i get to talk about chips. this will be about healthcare. i'm smiling but the shares are down 13% today after posting revenues that came out behind what wall street was expecting.

imaging and ultrasound revenues for the medical device company actually declined year-over- year posting decreases of about one to 4% respectively to make matters worse, revenues declined 11% specifically in china and that contributed to the 1% drop overall in revenue that we saw in the quarter. the ceo keeping his cool saying growth will be weighted towards the second half of the year. it seems to be a theme. the company is on track to deliver its guidance. eli lilly having a much better day after topping the streets estimate earning an aps, i should say. the company partly attributes the strong performance of, guess what? weight loss and diabetes drugs when jarlin's that bound. chairs up almost 6%. i love the curveballs. keep them coming. >> i will. you handle them well. knocked it out of the park, shall we say. i'll be back to you soon. >> goodbye. >> we're just getting started

here. the s&p 500 five-month winning streak in jeopardy. what is next for this rally? we discussed that and get you set up for the fed decision. we do it just after the break.

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welcome back, i wanted to see what stocks are doing. we are worsening a bit in the final stretch, 35 or minute so to go. approaching a 500 point decline. all the starting this morning with a hotter than expected employment cost index. yet another hotter inflation read unsettling to investors. we have a fed meeting tomorrow. news conference following. more key earnings coming up. ladies, it's great to see you. thanks for being here onset. that's what this is about, right?

were only going to be able to stand so many of these hotter than expected inflation rates, right? >> i have a different take on it. i think the market can withstand the hotter inflation as long as a couple of things are true. first is the reason we are seeing this backup and rates and tightening of financial conditions is in part because growth is good. earning results are good. that supportive for the market. the second reason is though they're not able to cut right now the data is not allowing that they're eager to cut. i expect we will see less hawkish than expected. >> well, i hear a new tone from lauren goodwin. are you more positive on the market now than you've been in a while? >> i am positive on the market. i am still -- >> come on, now. you have been pretty cautious for a while, okay? right? you have been. i hear someone who is suggesting that this market, this rally, can resume. >> that's right. i think that is the case.

now, the challenge is that the uptick in growth that we are seeing, it's on the verge of overheating, right? that has always been the top risk from my perspective to financial conditions to this economy. it's not something that makes me think we get to avoid a recession but it's not here right now. i don't see any reason to dwell on it. i don't think it's the right thing to do. >> how about you, marcy? >> i think the market has been having a tug-of-war between inflation concerns and earnings, right? they have been better than expected and our view is that trend continues for the balance of the year. i don't think the last five months of this rally was just fed enthusiasm. we've seen better-than-expected earnings. run the verge of our third quarter and i think that is the fundamental anchor to this market. yes, all eyes will be on the fed and the fed tells us their data depended their market hangs on every data point. of course this last mile has

broomstick year but i think you're going to hear him tomorrow reiterate that policy needs time to take effect. our view is you get your first cut later this year and the market continues to watch every data point. i think this rally, after this digestion period resumes, aced on strong fundamentals primarily earnings. >> you think this is just the market trying to get ahead of what is expected to be a more hawkish chair? >> i think that what we have seen in the last couple of months is a change in a market fundamental which is one your fed can ease off the plateau. i think it's a very important market fundamental. marcy's right to point out the tug-of-war between earnings and backup and financial conditions but the reality is, for my perspective, that earnings in the labor market are the two things that matter most for the

market because those are the two economic indicators, market indicators, that tell us that we are not yet in recession when those flip and we are already in recession, then i'm worried about the rally. we are not there in either of those indicators. >> can we put back up lauren's key points? the one at the top is the one that sticks out to me. whether they will be more hawkish or not tomorrow, you suggested that maybe the market is overdoing it on the worries, he's going to be super hawkish. there you go. good one on the fed. what makes you believe that just given what the inflation rates of late have been? >> inflation is telling us that the fed cannot cut now. frankly, even in january when the market was expecting cuts to start in march our view was that the data was telling us the fed can't cut to now. the difference in the past several weeks has been that because the market has caught up to this idea that the data isn't showing us what the fed

needs, market financial conditions have tightened. that is already doing some of the fed's work and i think the chairs going to say, look, progress on this inflation has stalled but we are seeing tightening financial market conditions that use the same idea in reverse in the fall to avoid having to hike further. i think they will use it this time to give some pomp to the market tomorrow. >> marcy, where do i want to be right now given this changing dynamic of further pushed out rate cuts, maybe inflation will remain stickier than we thought for a while? growth is going to be pretty good. earnings are going to be pretty good. but in the backdrop, what does that mean? >> looking at this market, the market is not panicking. they're down about 30% from the peak a couple of weeks ago. it's really subdued. this is a market that i think wants to refocus our views. where slightly overweight, activities driven by u.s. equities. i would use it an opportunity

if you have cash to put to work. i think the big story if you look ahead later this year will be one of rotation and broadening of this market. so, i would put money towards, probably, you know, i still like text, i still like the trends in artificial intelligence. clearly, this early -- earnings season is all about ai and capex but i would put also work in the other energy, quietly a really strong sector, still has a lot of momentum. i like to find stocks. they've underperformed the s&p. we are in a world with rising global defense spending because geopolitics are red-hot. i like healthcare and i like consumer discretionary from here. i would tilt up in quality for now but i think earnings broadening out will be the key story for investors in the balance of this year. >> lauren, do you agree? do you think we will get more

broad market? we may be reminded over last weekend and the remainder of this why we invested in the first place. do we think were going to get more broadening? >> we are not positioning for full broadening of the market and a lot of it has to do with the uncertainty that we are seeing on the economic outlook. marcy pointed out the tug-of- war. it's an environment where, frankly, it's one of the key mistakes we are seeing investors make, not being decisive. i agree with being decisive. we take a slightly different spin on it. we are fully invested in equity but not overweight because we are taking gains, an idea that you and i have talked about, and putting them to action and high yield corporate credit, specifically the short end of the curve. the fed hopefully isn't cutting in june for my perspective. the most likely next move, couple of months, is still going to be a cut. we are moving to the short duration part of the curve in order to lock in higher rates. >> we will leave it there. thank you. we will see you soon. see you back here, folks. up next, amd earnings, they had

the tape at the top of the hour as well. that stock has seen a big run over the last six months gaining more than 60%. however, it's underperformed a lot of the big names as of late. starship analyst stacy standing by with what he is expecting. he will tell you next.

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welcome back, amd, they are preparing to report results after the bell as well. my next guest calling for the print to be a quote, show about nothing. let's bring in stacy of bernstein research. that is a creative headline and, by the way, i'm sorry i missed you when you were here in person at post nine. >> that's okay. next time. >> a show about nothing, and what sense? >> to be fair, that was a preview. the title more referred to intel than amd. amd is going to be all that

matters. you noted in your intro that the stock has been a little weak recently, there've been current concerns about potential orders with supplier issues on that part and people are going to be looking for are the actually causing issues, can they take the forecast for that block off for the rest of the year, what does it look like next year? that's what people are going to be focusing on. it won't be quite about nothing, not for these guys. >> the stock is been crushed this year by broad calm. i'm looking at the key ai players, if you will, obviously nvidia has blown out of the water. why so much if we keep hearing more and more about aspirations for aai from lisa sue? >> they have been aspirations, all right? and i said this a lot, but in

semiconductors there is a lot of ai narratives. there's only two companies that have, like, truly meaningful ai revenues right now and amd is not one of them. not yet. right? i think if you go back to last earnings, expectations were getting out over their skis. people were thinking they might to eight to $10 billion in ami. they took the guy down to 3 1/2. i think up until a few weeks ago, expectations were that they might do six. given some of these concerns about push outs, those expectations have come down and maybe it's plus 45. on the positive, you know, low expectations in some sense are good thing. you know, it lets them, you know, take things out. that's why the stock has been weaker. the dangerous thing is if they are in fact pushing things out some is that their window is not that wide, right? you have nvidia that is launching new products for the end of the year that not only the current nvidia parts vary but the new ones will be much

more competitive. they just don't have a whole lot of runway to start to build scale and you really do not want to see them push out. so, we will see what lisa can pull out of her hat this afternoon, can't you actually take that number up meaningfully enough to drive expectations. >> you really highlight what is a potential issue for many of these chip names that are not, if not exclusively ai players, ones that are principally, let's call it that, principally ai players. which amd is not. it is pcs which you say are anemic. it's gaming which you say is impaired, it is data center outside of ai which you qualify as spending not being great. >> yes, and it's all true. you need to look at intel's results from the other day. they play in all of those markets and the results were not great, right? amd, you have to remember, their core business, the non-ai

service has been weak for a while. they've actually missed either numbers or guidance 7/4 in a row, if you can elieve it. i know the stock is been weak recently go look at where it is now versus a year and a half ago, it's much higher, right? the stock has powered through seven consecutive rounds of estimate cuts as investors have latched onto this ai story, this ai dream for them. we are getting to the point now where they need to really start showing it. it's got to start showing up in the numbers. if the core business is remaining weaker, the ai story has to be even stronger. >> you raise another interesting point about a possible comeuppance of sorts for these other chip names that have had incredible runs but are not nvidia and they are not broad, and they're not at the top of the ai list. when you look at semiconductor index, for example, it's north of 23% year to date. presumably there are many names in there which might not qualify

as, i don't know, true, real, now, ai players? >> a lot of them are not and that's okay. you are right. the stocks in general have been strong this year. by the way, as estimates have been cut, you have to remember, it's not an up cycle this year. it's not a great up cycle. memory in general should be better, it was horrible last year. pcs and smart phones, a little bit they will be better. they weren't horrible, they will be better. most of these companies were trading out inventory. it will be a little bit better but not stupendously better. ai is strong, as we know. outside of ai data center, spending is not great. industrial spending has been weak. auto is starting to roll over. a lot of these companies have been influenced on those

trends. that being said, investors have shown a wide willingness so far this year to buy estimate cuts. ordinarily in semiconductors people like to buy cuts. the best time to buy stocks in general is right before the last down river vision and earnings and people are starting to play the stocks for a recovery into the back half and beyond. we will see if we get it or not. that's why the sector as a whole has been strong. it hasn't all been ai related. >> good set up, stacy, thank you. i appreciate it. up next we are tracking the biggest movers. one company is about to lose its status as a dividend aristocrat. we have the details coming up next. of (ella) fashion moves fast. setting trends is our business. we need to scale with customer demand...

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where about 15 out from the bell. let's get back to pippa stevens for the stocks she is watching. >> hey, 3m is in the green after first quarter results. the company pointed to volume growth in automotive and electronics but said organic sales declined 3.9% year-over- year due to continued softness in consumer discretionary spending 3m also cut its dividend following the spinoff. marathon petroleum is sinking after q1 results. there were lower throughputs through the corner and made its largest turnaround activity in history which brought utilization down to 82%.

the company said that sets it up well for the summer and driving season. scott? >> appreciate that. still ahead, pinterest numbers are coming out over time as well. a slow srt ttao the year in tonight's results. we will discuss. closing bells coming right back. (♪♪) i'm partnering with sofi because they care about making your money work for your ambitions. recognize a generational player.

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or college, since you like to get schooled. that's a pretty good burn, right? got him. good game. thanks for coming to our clinic, first one's free. closing bell markets own, mike here to break down these crucial moments of the trading day. plus, not just amazon earnings out, what to watch for. chipmakers amd and supermicro, julie as well. what to watch for when pinterest reports. down your 500 on the dow. nasdaq off new one and a half percent. >> everything pretty heavy today. selling in stocks, bonds, oil,

bit coin. there's a draining of conviction out there. if you are dis-inflationary optimist you've got less to work with today. if you are an economic resilience person you say, well, chicago pmi looks ragged, consumer stocks are weak. obviously, also have, you know, other things that seem as if we should at least question the resiliency of the economy. all that said, the s&p is back to thursday levels. you had this decent reflex bound, not a lot of forces to take it up to certain levels. i also have been going on for months on this 50-50 level of the s&p. it seemed like the destination of the october rally that started there. it's also where we learned for the first time, favre 12, that's before the january cpi. that's before we went oh, if lotion may not be cooperating. since then earnings estimate of 12%. you have treasury yields of

40%. you can find an equilibrium but it's tenuous. that's what the action says. >> what you think of the suggestions at least one by lauren at the top of the show that the market is getting a little too over its skis of sorts on the idea that it's going to be hawkish tomorrow. >> it makes sense that we are clenched up for it. i was oing to say at around noon today with you, scott, yes, we've gotten hocked up because they've pointed us there. it's not as if i think there's going to be an effort by powell to put the market further on notice beyond what the numbers have told us but it is a little bit of coming out, a cold shower on anybody who thought we are going have rate cuts into a careless economy with a perfect soft landing and stocks at record highs. that is gone by the wayside. >> we said it's not just amazon, christina on these chips, amd and supermicro. >> amd showcases the die comedy between cyclical segments and it's more ai exposed segment which encompasses the mi 300 series. it's an ai chip series that's going to compete with nvidia.

tsmc warned anything non-ai is weaker. they will continue to be flat in q2. there are concerns that the demand slowness will continue for amd and to the next quarter but the focus will really be on the forecast for the mi300 ai chip. previously it was at 3.5 billion for revenues in 2024, total revenues. they're hoping it goes as high as $5 billion eventually hitting 10 billion next year. the recent $140 billion in spending promises from microsoft, meda, google, is helping the ai demand narrative, especially as firms look for alternatives to nvidia's gpu's and that's where amd would benefit. another ai beneficiary is server assembler supermicro. they focus on high-performance community computing. they have betting that jumps to about 23% in the next year. given the focus on ai infrastructures, they did not preannounced positive earnings

than they normally do so. that spooked investors last week. you can see the dip in the stock on your tree screen but this is still considered an ai darling. let's see if they provide a good guide. that's a concern right now. >> we will see. appreciate that. thank you. christina, as we were talking about with stacy a few moments ago, it's a cautionary tale, at least of late because the stock is only up eight or 9% year to date relative to some big boomers elsewhere. talking a lot about ai, not doing a lot as it relates to ai. >> last year the market decided to give them an abundance of credit for the leverage to the ai story that hadn't shown up yet in the business. it gets more to the benefit of the doubt because it's considered to be well-managed and in the right places and they've had some great market

share wins across other categories. i agree with that. high stakes. the other piece, we have so many single day -- i want to say overreactions but extreme reactions to these reports. is not just meta-, it's not just tesla, is the echo effect of the spring-loaded expectations and moves from past quarters and how big these are in the indexes. yesterday was the first day nvidia moved less than 3% in a week and a half. that's wild for the top three stock in the market. >> two-minute warning. guys, can we get an intraday of the 10 year and then let's get an intraday of the two-year. i would like to see the yields on that. were going to go out around the highs of the day for these yields, as you see here. we are pushing back 470 on the tenure and the two years almost pushing towards 5:05. >> two-year is coming now above five. not far from the highs of last september and october. that's why you have the market on edge. real tenure yield, if you consider the market inflation

expectations, it's pushing2 1/2. we haven't been at those levels much at all since the global financial crisis. in theory, on paper, that's your restrictiveness. that's what the fed is pointing to. basically, the economy and the markets should be restrained. credit seems fine with all this. we've made our peace with varying levels along the way up and yields. let's remember, the two-year yield two years ago was at 2 3/4. two years ago it wasn't doing a good job at telling us where the fed was going to be in two years which was how people treat 5% right now, as if it's some oracle. >> we do not want to be surprised tomorrow by chair powell on the idea of whether we are restrictive enough because they've made it clear that we think we are, unless something is now pivoting. >> their framework says that and that should move slowly. they're going to reassess what

they consider to be the economic growth, potentially the economy more neutral rates, that happens over many, many months and quarters. it shouldn't happen at a meeting where they don't even have a summary of economic projections. i would imagine he still going to say we believe policy is effective and we want to find a way to normalize it over the coming months. >> i suppose we are preparing for the worst tomorrow. the dow is going to close today. 600 points down, about 570. we have big earnings. the nasdaq losing 2% in the session. that's a scorecard on wall street. welcome the closing bell overtime. i'm john with morgan. >> will today's mega cap earnings help boost the sentiment on wall street? we are moments away from results on amazon, amd, supermicro, starbucks, pinterest, and many more.