okay. jim? >> abvie. >> stephanie? >> raytheon. >> josh? >> amazon. i'll see you on "closing bell." welcome to "the exchange." here is what's ahead we're just a little more than 24 hours away from the fed's next decision on interest rates, and one of our guests says we could be in for a hawkish surprise. she's here to tell us what she means by that, and we'll look at how to position from here. plus, here comes amazon. expectations are high, and that's okay because the tech giant is firing on all cylinders. our guest is here with what

makes him so bullish. this name just delivered a strong quarter, strong guidance, the stock is up 3%, but it's a crowded space. the closest competitor just entered the public market. the ceo is not worried, not pulling any punches, either. he'll join us live ahead. we begin with the markets with dom chu. >> it's red and getting worse. we're just near session lows right now, and the dow industrials, that means a 414 point decline, 1% to the downside. 37,971. the broader based s&p 500, 5,065 the last trade there, down about 1%, as well. and to give you perspective, at the highs, were down 353 53 poi at the low. the nasdaq, down about a percent or so, 15,798.

big technology trade, amazon is going to be the big focus because the earnings report. we're putting a big circle around that 1% decline around amazon shares. but broadly speaking, big technology, microsoft down 1.75%. apple, the standout to the upside, it's up 0.1%. nvidia down 1%. alphabet down 1%, as well. so that mega cap technology trade, it's usually nvidia we highlight as the upside mover in that broader based decline. but apple, interesting move there to the upside. and then the stock of the day, the industrial congromlomerate that's two different companies. generally speaking, a good quarter for 3m. they're going to cut their dividend. not a surprise for a lot of folks out there when you cut off a big part of the company, so they'll cut the dividend after paying an increasing one for 64

straight years. they've paid a dividend of 100 years of some sort. but some investors think this could be the turn around story, something happening in the works. positivity there, we'll see if it sticks around for 3m shares. >> back over to you. >> dom, thuk. it's not just the fed officials that have taken a hawkish tone. let's get to steve liesman for more. steve? >> john, the outlook on the survey has turned more hawkish with respondents delaying the bulk of rate cuts amid a forecast for higher growth but higher inflation this year. take a look at the numbers. only one cut fully priced in for this year, that's in december. and that was compared to june being the pick in the prior survey. the group split on the possibility of that september cut. the 29 respondents see a 22% of a hike in the next year.

3.8% feds fund rate in 2025. so still cuts in the forecast, butnow next year and a bit less than had been forecast, that neutral rate ticking up by 0.2%, suggesting the fed is maybe not as tight as believed before -- when the fed started hiking. you can see right there, follow the blue bars for the current forecast, all up from the prior forecast by a cut or two. but it adds up over time. you can see there now 3.8%, seen as the neutral -- as the next year's number, the neutral 3.1 versus 3.3. one writes in -- >> that's more or less how the market is priced. respondents are hawkish on the futures market, reflecting better growth but higher inflation. that comes with a growing belief and debate right now about whether the economy has to slow

down and unemployment has to rise for the fed to hit its 2% inflation target, john. >> chance of a hike there, 22%. is that much of a change of what we saw earlier? >> well, we didn't ask that question before, john, because it wasn't much of a hike on the table. the fed's bias was cutting, and, you know, you -- hindsight 2020. we ask this time, by itself, what is the probability that the fed reverses course and hikes rates? i guess you could think of that as some possibility that powell tomorrow or in some speech down the show, if these inflation numbers keep going the way that they are, that powell introduces two-sided risk to the direction of rates. >> steve, stick around. our next guest says we could be in for a hawkish surprise tomorrow from the fed, posing the biggest risk to the markets. joining me now are paul christopher from wells fargo and

stephanie roth, chief economist at wolf research. welcome, guys. you're both -- >> thank you. >> -- paul, expecting more than one cut, unlike sort of the medium in the survey, three still? >> no, only two. >> yeah, two for us, as well. >> so paul, talk through the risks here and how much your probabilities have to shift as this data has come in? >> yeah, the fed will always tell you that they're watching data, so the risk is to the downside on cuts for this year. but we really believe that inflation will start to resume its downward march, the disinflation. it's just been sticky for a while. that's not unusual for inflation over time. and we think as inflation falls, the economy will slow moderately, modestly. that will give the fed enough of a window. we think somewhere with between 2.5%, 3% inflation the fed will

cut and we'll see some of those borrows who have been contrained by fed policy but not by availability of other sources of credit, people like consumers, regional banks. they will have better access to credit, helping really push the economy forward at the end of the year. >> stephanie, you expect as we start to get april data over the next few weeks, this narrative is going to shift. what are those key moments you think that will make the difference? >> yeah. what we have seen is a lot of the data in q1 have been subject to a lot of volatility. cpi is just another example of that. it was seasonally depressed in q4, seasonally boosted in q1. and then in qu2, you should seea normalization from that presentation. on friday, one of those important april data points we'll be getting on payroll. the number could come in firm. but wages growth, we're looking

for 0.18% versus consensus of 0.3%, that can stick off the more dovish surprises. the housing data should start to soften, and when we're getting the cpi prints starting in april and looking forward, they should start to come in a bit cooler. we think the trend in inflation is somehow closer to 2.5%, held up by seasonal volatility, going the other way starting in april. >> steve, how much relative attention does go to the wage data on friday, and maybe even to revisions? >> you know, a little bit less than people think. this morning was the important wage data for the federal reserve. powell has made clear, and i think it makes a lot of sense what powell has done, he's really shifted to the focus to employment cost index, which is an all indicator of benefits and wages, as well as being not

really corrupted by the constituents of the wages -- of the employees in there. it's just -- it's a better way of looking at it and it was higher than expected. i hope stephanie is right about the wage data on friday, and there's a whole lot of other inflation related data we'll be following. the anticipation rate, are we still getting influxes into the workforce? but i think the unemployment rate is the one to watch. if you want to think about rate cuts this year, and multiple rate cuts, i think it may only come with the development of slack in the economy, meaning an economy that runs below potential and one where the unemployment rate is seen rising. maybe not precipitously, but enough to say you know what? we're going the other way on employment here. >> paul, you like energy, industrials, and health care in this market. spend a little time on health

care. what in particular is important there? we just had lily report. what names are you watching closely to see how it's playing out? >> well, we like all of those sectors that you mentioned for longer term investors. our clients are primarily long-term focused. for the long-term, the pandemic demonstrated really that the capacity, the health care capacity in this country is not where it needs to be for another kind of that event. so we look for more public spending, more private spending. managed care would be a focus going forward. less so pharmaceuticals. maybe devices, maybe more neutral there. so that's kind of our way of thinking about health care. >> are you looking for upside in particular sectors, stephanie, or just looking at the market overall in general? we had somebody say don't try to play particular sectors. >> yeah, we're definitely optimistic on the economy as a whole, leading to higher

earnings this year. but i'm thinking from a sector perspective, things related to the industrial cycle should do fairly well this year. we're having a bit of a bottoming in the manufacturing pmi. we'll see more details on that tomorrow. the trend we think is positive. on top of that, you have a decent amount of infrastructure spending, a lot of the public spending rolls out this year. and then you're getting a bit of a loosening of financial conditions compared to a year ago, and a better outlook when you're thinking about the chances of recession. the companies are going to be a little more interested in doing capital spending, which is the capex side of the economy. so it's the cyclical sectors of the economy that we like here thinking ahead to the next six months or so. >> steve liesman, there's been some reticence on the part of businesses to borrow money and spend. how closely is the fed watching that? >> part of that look for sure.

i think they would like to see a little cooling in that market. it's very interesting to me, john, that we have seen a kind of -- a little bit of a renaissance in ipos. it feels like there's been some loosening of financial conditions. remember, we're not that far off the highs, so equity financing is actually relatively cheap the higher the market is, the cheaper that financing is. while debt financing has remained relatively expensive. so what we might be seeing here, john, something worth talking about and bob fasani has been all over with the ipo boom that we've had here, or maybe a return to more normal numbers, that people are referring equity to debt because of the price of debt, which is a question whether or not those rates are going to be coming down. i think there was an expectation of a lot of cfos in the beginning of the year, this would be a good year to refinance because debt yields are going to come down. while spreads may be relatively tight, actual yields have not

fallen very much, and even gone the other way. so there might be a preference out there for equity, given that the market is off less than perhaps yields have risen. >> interesting. okay, steve, thank you. also, thank you paul christopher and stephanie roth. turning to the housing market where demand is still strong, even in a higher rate environment. home prices on a tear again. diana olick joins with us the la latest. >> strong demand and tight supply continue to push prices higher, even though rates are moving higher again. home prices in february jumped 6.4%, up from january's increase of 6% according to the national home price index. it was the fastest rate of price growth since november 2022. now, after cooling last year, home prices are again near all-time highs nationally, and already they are in certain markets. for the third straight month, all 20 cities in the index saw annual increases. four of them at those all-time highs.

san diego, los angeles, washington, d.c., and new york. san diego saw the biggest gain overall. prices there up 11% year over year, followed by chicago and detroit, which saw 9% price gains. portland oregon, the smallest gains but still up 2%. sit a three-month moving average, so it goes back to december when rates hit their recent lows. they are, of course, way back up again, now over 7.5% today. there was a strong expectation back then that the federal reserve would lower interest rates, and that may have driven buyers to jump in then, but that is not the case now. >> very much not the case. we also saw some strong earnings this morning from taylor morrison, one of the nation's largest home builders. how did that really pan out, given this higher rate environment? >> yeah, it was not only a nice beat, but they also raised guidance because home builders have a big toolbox to get those

buyers in the door. they reported a big jump in first-time home buyers. they're helping to buy down the rates or use other incentives to help first-time home buyers get in the door. one thing the ceo, cherylnoted doesn't expect prices to come down. they did see price gains on the sales as well as smaller incentives. so the builders are in the hotseat because there isn't enough supply on the existing side, and that supply is just not coming on the market. sellers are still stuck with 3% rate. so builders can raise prices as long as they can get the rates down a bit. >> if you are a young professional entering the market right now for so many things, it is just tough. any sense of when people might be forced to sell and open things up? because we've been talking about that for a while and it hasn't happened. >> look, there are always life

circumstances that maybe somebody have to sell. a death in the family, down sizing, a divorce, there's a job change. there are just regular life reasons that people have to move. it's just that we're not seeing that move-up buyer who normally fuels the market from that entry level into a stepup home. that's what we need to see. the reason that's not happening is because they have rock bottom mortgage rates and the move-up home is so expensive right now. >> i don't know how that gets solved. diana, thank you. coming up, the expectations for amazon's earnings could hardly be higher according to one portfolio manager, but sees the stock rallying 25% from here. he'll join us next to make his case. fidelity's cloud computing etf is on pace for its worst month since september 2022. one name in the group is hitting an all-time high today on the back of an earnings beat. we'll speak with the ceo

exclusively ahead. and the dea reportedly plans to reclassify marijuana as a less dangerous drug. "the exchange" is back after this. this is "the exchange" on cnbc. (vo) what does it mean to be rich? maybe rich is less about reaching a magic number... and more about discovering magic.

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light 'em up! gentlemen, it's a beautiful... ...day to fly. capital spending among mega tech cap companies surging as

microsoft, alphabet and meta outline plans for tens of billions for ai investments. so what's in store for amazon as it reports tonight. deidre bosa is looking at that for today's "tech check." >> we are in the midst of a new path x souper cycle driven by te ai computing ramp. this chart puts it in perspective. it shows capex spending with amazon, which reports tonight. so for 2024, spend was expected to grow 26% year over year collectively. the orange part of that line. but look at the yellow part, that's the revision, revised up to 44%, getting closer to the last super cycle around 2018. now, i want to show you what it looks like when you overlay revenue growth. it's less than half of what it was back in 2018 when the mega caps were growing at a much faster clip.

it's been revised up this year by just 3%, sure. but that's a drop in the bucket versus the 40 percentage plus capex growth. what does help the case for amazon is profitability. it is expected tohave spent more than anyone else this quarter on capex, but the net income has improved significantly under andy jassy's leadership, which could soften the blow of higher spending like it did for google earlier this week. it's just amazon and tesla without capital return programs. so a little more intense on amazon, particularly because it can afford to give capital back to investors. >> i guess in a way it makes sense that the ai spending is ramping more than the revenue. you usually have to invest before you get paid. but i guess this also underlines the strategic investment in these custom chips because they

hope to off load more of those ai workloads over time, not necessarily use as many nvidia chips as perhaps use their own, right? >> which are scarce and more expensive. that's why you see amazon, microsoft, alphabet, developing their own chips so it can take some of that workload. but they still -- that demand for the nvidia gps still high, keeping costs up. but it's about the future tra jek try. that is expected to ramp later. amazon, remember, it doubled its logistics capacity over the pandemic and now it's really reaping the rewards oh of that. >> do you have any sense whether the expectations, the bar set for aws shifted after the strong cloud reports from google and microsoft? >> i mean, you know as well as i do a larger base to am off of, right? but we're in this new era of the cloud wars, where what can you offer in terms of ai tools and

amazon has been trying hard to say they give their customers a ton of option. certainly, investors want to see that aws growth grow bigger, but it's certainly smaller than what we have seen, smaller in terms of growth on a percentage based on what we have seen from microsoft and google. but i think it's got to be over that 14%, 15% level. >> dei, thank you. further into amazon, the street is expecting big things from the quarter one results, including aws revenue of $24.5 billion, the segment's best growth in four quarters. the stage is set for amazon to deliver. let's bring in my next guest, portfolio manager. james, you're confident that amazon's going to do what it has to do here. how much has to do with the overall cloud market strength that we saw from competitors? >> yeah, i'm as confident as you

can be in this. i think it's great the fact that they're reporting last, so a lot of those expectations have been reset. i think what amazon has going for them now is that a lot of these mag seven names are coming off really great rates of growth in 2023 and are starting to moderate. whereas amazon suffered in 2023 with optimization efforts and tough comps on retail, but they're on the upward trajectory in terms of estimates. so we're still in the early days as far as the efficiency efforts on the retail front. the cloud spending is starting to ramp at a more meaningful way with the optimizations behind them, and then on the margin. those efficiencies will trickle down. and for the first time, we're going to be able to start to value this company in a much more meaningful way on an earnings basis than just on a sales basis. >> there's a narrative for much of last year, and microsoft did

a good job fueling it, that google and amazon are behind, like way behind in ai. anything amazon can do on earnings to counter that? >> well, andy jassy pointed out this morning on a tweet that ai efforts and developments that they're making for tools for developers. so i think a lot of the ai efforts that you're going to see out of amazon are going to be more behind the scenes, a look at developers utilizing it, as well as on the logistics and fulfillment and the predictive analytics on the consumer side, so a lot of things that will trickle into higher conversion rates and higher utilization of the platform. and that will help produce more sustainable rates of growth as we go forward. >> now, away from aws, whether we're talking about delivery efficiency or advertising performance, are there things that investors not be looking at

as closely that could provide upside that would move the stock? >> i think a lot of it is well appreciated at this point. we've known that aws is marching back towards that 20% growth rate. advertising is certainly become the big, meaningful part of the business. they're a top five advertiser right now in terms of dollars. and the margin, as well. so a lot of it has appreciated. i think what it come down to is just further reinforcement that the trends are in tact. and if that's the case, i think that this stock should continue to propel higher. because as we see from some of the other mag seven names, like netflix and meta, you know, with moderating growth rates, you want to be on the right side of that mean reversion and not on the wrong side. i think amazon is positioned well for that. >> does amazon need to offer a dividend? >> it certainly would be nice.

we saw what it did to alphabet's stock. so i'll take a dividend any time it's offed to me. >> yeah, they like to spend that money, though, invest it. others are spending also, including meta. so because amazon is the type of company it is, with real sort of both bits and atoms in its product line, if they get a pass for offering a dividend, because they go through these investment cycles. >> well, i'll just say i think that when it's clear to them -- i mean, i'm assuming this is the logic they'll have because of the pedigree and the mindset of management we've known for years now, is that as long as that there is absolutely no tradeoff between growth initiatives and the return in capital to shareholders, i think that's something that they certainly would be open to. because they are free cash flow oriented business. so if that tradeoff is not there, at the expense of growth,

i certainly think it's something that could conceivably be on the table. if it's still -- if it's an adverse, you know, counter to their initiatives, then i don't think that we'll see it any time soon. >> as we head into the back half of the year, what's the -- what's the line that strategically becomes most important or more important to you? does it have to do with the leadup to aws or some of the setup on the ai message, or does it have more to do with the continuing ability of the consumer to show up and keep fueling the core e-commerce business? >> umm, i hate continuation stories because, you know, because they're boring. you don't really have a big catalyst. unfortunately, amazon falls into that bucket. but i will say, the main thing i'm going to be looking for is that aws growth rate margin back

up to 20% in a reliable way. and further to that, the inkre mental margins of the aws business, are they going to go back to that 50% that they were posting during, you know, the couple of years prior? so, as long as those things move in the right direction and you see the efficiencies on the retail side and the optimization on the phone network, it's going to be a continuation story. this is a grind higher stock, and that's the way that we're playing it. i don't think it's going to be whiffy in the same manner we saw meta, netflix and what not. because just like microsoft, it will grind higher. >> we've got to look at those numbers in "overtime" on cnbc 46shgs pk eastern. coming up, warner brothers hitting its lowest level since march 2009. and here's a look at the best and worth performers in the nasdaq 100 this month

astrazeneca up 12% thanks in part to last week's big earnings week. intel is down 30% in april following friday's 9% drop after giving weak guidance for the current quarter. "the exchange" is back after this.

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welcome back to "the exchange." markets right now, lower. all the major indexes down about 1%. russell down about 1.5%. the low on the dow was down 433 points. stocks on track for the first losing month since october, with the dow posting its worst month since february of last year. warner brothers discovery shares falling to a 52-week low on a report that nbc universal is preparing to pay $2.5 billion to pay nba games. shares of comcast down about 2% by the way, hovering near a 52-week low. warner brothers was unable to strike a deal with the league before their window expired last week but still has the option to match rival offers.

on the other hand, disney's espn and the nba have reached an 11-year deal that includes the nba finals. amazon's also likely to get a package, leaving warner brothers, discovery and nbc universal in play for the remainder. and mark your calendar for cnbc's game plan summit on september 10 in los angeles. it brings together visionaries from the sports and entertainment worlds. to learn more and register, scan that qr code on the screen or go to the website. now to tyler mathisen for a cnbc news update. ty? >> september 10th we'll be back in the nfl season. prosecutors have called another witness to the stand in donald trump's hush money trial this afternoon. keith davidson was the former attorney for both karen mcdougal and stormy daniels. and a key player in the alleged conspiracy as a source for former national enquirer editor in chief dylan howard.

walmart will close all of its health care clinics nationwide because of rising costs and challenges with reimbursements. two sources told cnbc all 51 clinic locations across five states will close over the next 45 to 90 days. it comes after they announced it planned to open 22 more locations this year, and even more in 2025. guess not. and eight prominent u.s. regional newspapers are suing openai and microsoft for copyright infringement. they allege openai and microsoft used articles without permission to train chatgbt and co-pilot. it's a similar argument to the one "the new york times" made in its suit against both companies back in december. john, back to you, sir. >> a lot riding on that for the media industry. coming up, here's another look at today's mystery chart.

the stock just hit an all-time high, and one of the closest rivals just went public last week. we'll tell you what it is and speak with the ceo, next.

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welcome back. commvault was the mystery chart we showed you. shares hitting an all-time high. management targeting a billion dollars in annual recovering revenue by the end of fiscal 2 2 2026, after rubrik came on the market. joining me now is the ceo. san jay, we've been talking about this for a while now. tell me what is happening in the market and particularly in this quart they are gives you the confidence to project forward to those big numbers in '26? >> hey, john. good to see you again. so i'll just take a step back and put in perspective what we see happening in the industry and happening around us.

so, you know, what used to be cyberattacks or hacks from, you know, a few years ago has become a full-on industry where nation states and ai and, you know, all the technology that has been used to just besiege customers with cyberattacks. we protect our customer's data in a difficult world. so what we have been doing is two things -- building out our cloud capability, our platform that is about cyber resill yens, to protect our customers and on the business side keeping it simple and executing to a plan and delivering the results that you called out. so really, it's those two things. there is an absolute need for what we do with our platform, and then on the business side keeping things simple. >> you've got this project, we've been talking about the process of when a company or an

institution gets hit with a ransom ware attacks, you have to bring back the data in order to get it up and running again, but make sure you're not bringing back the malicious code at the same time and reinfecting yourself all along. how does this product line help with that, and how is it differentiated from some of the other names out there like rubrik, which just came public with a successful ipo a few days ago. >> so first of all, the second part of your question first. there is no real competitor. it's a concept that we have taken the thing that large companies had in the event of a catastrophic situation and demock atized it. we made it available to companies of all sizes. what happens during an attack, and i was a cio and i lived through an attack, you don't trust anything in your

infrastructure. you don't trust your data, you don't trust your servers, you don't trust your network, you trust nothing. and so when you're trying to figure out what happened, you've got to simultaneously go out and start bringing your business back to life. and what our technology and recovery in particular does is gives customers a safe space, a trusted space but they know it's clean, it's pristinepristine. we bring back their core data, give them clean infrastructure settings, and automation to start the recovery process. and they can do this for as this applications as they want to, while simultaneously doing the forensics to figure out what actually happened. this is absolutely revolutionary, and there's nothing that i know like it out there. >> you've been in the process of modernizing commvault since the pandemic, the move to cloud has

really shifted the way the market is looking at what companies like yours deliver. at the same time, therehas been a push, at least a year or two ago, for profitability and expense discipline in companies. but you also have to compete with these younger up-start companies, as well. how are you balancing that? what should investors expect? >> i think the results and what we have been sharing with investors is consistent. we're building a responsible company, not growth at all costs. the second half of our fiscal year, we had double digit growth. we put out a billion dollar number for -- over the next eight quarters. a third of our business is sass, which is important, because we think that's a big part of how customers look at the future. we're also at the same time delivering profitability. we delivered almost $200 million of free cash flow.

and we bought back almost $600 million of stock, so the profile of our business is a little different i would say, and i -- a lot different than the upstarts. >> how's the partnership integration with dell going to help you? >> that's important, because what's happening is that first of all, it's designed to help customers, customers who want, you know, who have a dell presence and also want a modern data, cyber resilience capability. we're going after some incumbents who are out there and partnering with you know, dell is a competitor, but in this particular case, we're coming together for customers to give them a modern solution for signer resilience. >> all right. a lot of data on the line for sure. sanjay, thank you. >> thank you, john. still ahead, eli lilly, the

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welcome back to "the exchange." let's get some show and tell where we show you a chart and tell you a story. eli lilly is back trading near all-time highs after posting a first quarter earnings beat and raising full-year guidance thanks in part to "greater visibility into its production and expansion of several drugs." here's what the ceo told "squawkbox" about that rollout this morning. >> our top priority is making more product, and we're doing everything we can do to that, recognizing that making medicine, and this is one of the most technically complicated medicines we have ever made. it's a protein therapeutic in an enclosed system that has to be sterile, and then injection device. so we're ramping that

aggressively. but it's capital intensive, technically complex and highly regulated. >> today's move pushing the stock back into positive territory for april, putting it on pace for a four-month win streak, now up 35% since the start of the year. and that's saying something since it's a $739 billion market cap. not based in california or washington state but based in indiana. coming up, amd versus super micro, awhich would you rather edition of earnings exchange is next. kraft heinz made up a little more than 3% of berkshire hathd hathaway's holdings. cnbc will be there live at 9:30 a.m. eastern. "the exchange" will be right back. (fisher investments) at fisher investments we may

look like other money managers, but we're different. (other money manager) how so? (fisher investments) we're a fiduciary, obligated to act in our client'' best interest. (fisher investments) so we don't sell any commission-based products. (other money manager) then how do you make money? (fisher investments) we have a simple management fee, structured so we do better when our clients do better. (other money manager) your clients really come first then, huh? (fisher investments) yes. we make them a top priority, by getting to know their finances, family, health, lifestyle and more. (other money manager) wow, maybe we are different. (fisher investments) at fisher investments, we're clearly different.

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garcia, senior wealth adviser at ping capital management and cnbc contributor. hey, let's kick things off, courtney, with ai. chip maker amd, hardware maker whether able to gain market share and beat these sky-high expectations. courtney, which of these two do you like better? >> yeah. i would take an amd here. when you look at super micra, it's done fantastic, up 214% just this year alone. so when you talk about high bar, i think that's really what you're setting with the super micro. interestingly enough, over the last seven of eight quarters preannounced positive earnings. they decided not to do that this quarter. that's putting investors a little weary may not be as good as they were expecting. then you look at amd, as much as artificial intelligence is their story, a lot of their business is in things like pc and gaming. as you saw with intel, it's

slowing. that's one of the reasons you'll see their revenue declining this quarter. but the question is that going to be improving the second half of this year, largely the expectation, especially as you see things like ai-enabled hardware starting to become more in demand. that will benefit them later. the number two chip provider behind nvidia which a lot of people think will be, that's likely a longer-term story to benefit them. i would take the amd over the supermicro. next up is staples. analysts flagging consumer spending trends and international price negotiations is key for both. so, courtney, what's your trade here? >> i think one of the big key here is what's been happening in the cocoa and chocolate space, sugar price, huge price increases. cocoa tripled just this year alone. that's about 10% of the sales or cost of their sales, which is

going to be an effect on their bottom line. so i think that's really what investors want to see are they now again having to increase their prices. b, how are consumers reacting to that. i am optimistic. they have a really good balance sheet. they increased their dividend 11 years in a row, all bodes well in this kind of environment is the stock you want. i actually would take them here. i think what's interesting about their story, too, is about a third of their sales are in emerging market countries with large populations, increasing incomes. they see snacks as a convenience and also there's this big trend happening in the u.s. with things like glp 1s and weight loss. that's happening less in the emerging markets. that will benefit them. i would take the mondelez. finally, travel, marriott and norwegian cruise lines reporting first quarter results before the bell. booking trends and customers fee sensitives. so land or sea, courtney?

>> i'm going to take the sea here. you're seeing leisure travel demand is in a rebound that's not ending any time in the future. this decimated post covid. while consumers are strapped on their spending with inflation, they want to travel. and the cruise industry specifically is one where you've really been seeing that -- you saw that with the royal caribbean. people are continuing to spend on cruises. prices are going up and people want to spend there. you'll continue to see that with norwegian. we obviously want to see how that trend is coming to fruition here, but i would absolutely the cruise line are benefitting more than the hotels for the current time being. >> interesting setup going into these earnings with the major averages under the pressure they are. the 10-year ticking higher. what kind of pressure does that put particularly on smaller stocks and how does that factor into how you look at the landscape? >> smaller stocks tend to be

more leverage. so these are companies that will benefit more if rates come down or under more pressure if rates stay higher for longer. and that's been the big question right now is when are interest rates coming down or how long are they going to stay higher for longer. the expectations are continuing to reset. they are going to be higher for a little longer here. so your smaller companies, you're going to see them especially when the fed comes out tomorrow, we'll see what they have to say, but if they're going to indicate higher for longer, the smaller companies will be affected more by that. >> i wonder going back to the first one on supermicro and amd, all of these spending promises that kind of surprise the market from meta and from microsoft, those end up benefitting the likes of super micro? we will see. courtney garcia, thank you. >> thanks for having me. that will do it for "the exchange." lle back for "overtime." but first, "power lunch" is first after this quick break.

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with every swing and block, your game plan never changed. ♪♪ some still call it luck. let them. because you know what it's always been. inevitable. ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪ good afternoon, everybody. welcome to "power lunch." alongside seema mody, i'm tyler mathisen. glad you could join us for a tuesday. we're 24 hours away now from the fed decision on interest rates. fed already meeting down in washington for a two-day session. more conflicting economic data out this morning. big drop in the chicago pmi shows some slowing economic growth. but the employment cost index shows continued inflation. so we'll discuss the difficult position the fed is in.