spending them. we talked about a.m. ston. aws and amd and others. >> heading into a fed meeting tomorrow we'll monitor the commentary from fed chair powell. it's a big week. >> and we're in the thick of it now. let's get to the judge and "the half." carl, thanks. welcome to "the halftime report." scott wapner here. amazon earnings just hours away now. fresh stagflation fears dragging down stocks. josh brown, stephanie link, jim lebenthal joining us. lows of the day for the dow, down 300 points right now. the s&p is giving back about two-thirds of a percent. steph, employment cost index jumps by the most in the year. chicago pmi now 20 months under 15, under 40. that's ugly. consumer confidence under 100.

that's the lowest since july of 2022. what's going on here? >> i think it's way too premature to talk stagflation. >> that's the word of the day, the dreaded s word. >> it's premature. that gdp number last week i think will get revised higher. i think the consumer was misrepresented. if you look at all the numbers, the wage numbers we've been getting in the eci today, up 4.3% year over year, that's great for the consumer. if you look at the pce last week, income and spending grew 5 and 6% respectively. that's great for the consumer. manufacturing, we talk about it all the time, i had a whole slew of companies today that reported earnings in the manufacturing industry. and they are on fire. parts of manufacturing. >> why consumer confidence then if it's so great for the consumer? why is confidence the lowest since july of 2022? something is going on. >> i think it ebbs and flows, and i think it has to do with, yeah, elevated inflation. we've talked about that. it's coming under control. i mean, the core pce number was

pretty good. i mean, it was like a ho hum, right in line with expectations. it didn't massively accelerate. if the fed doesn't cut, which is what i've been saying for quite a while, if they don't cut this year, they don't have to cut this year, because the economy continues to grow. that's why i think it's really important to talk about the revisions that i'm expecting in the first quarter gdp report. i think that is going to be a game changer when they do revise it. >> all right, jimmy. this seems to be today about that s word, stagflation. it's like the thing the fed would fear more than anything else theoretically. like jason showing one a hockey mask at the meeting, right? >> yeah. >> is that what this is about? >> i actually think -- i don't think stagflation is the issue. obviously it's on people's minds, scott, no question about it. i think that started friday with the hotter than expected pce number. talking today's number, the eci, that's another first quarter number. this is, i think, the very last

first quarter number we're going to get. my eyes are on what's going on in april. tomorrow the ism manufacturing. you mentioned, stephanie, manufacturing tentatively, very tentatively, looks like it's starting to grow again. now we can either have that confirmed or denied tomorrow, but that's important. the labor market with the average hourly earnings growth is where we're going to get the first hint of what inflation is doing in april. i get it. everybody is worried about inflation based on first quarter numbers which, across-the-board from the start to the end of the quarter were terrible. i would like to look forward. as far as the stag part goes, i have a problem. you have unemployment below 4%. i do remember the '70s, i remember double digit employment. i remember a bond family, interest rates were going through the roof and paul volcker was doing everything to crush inflation. this doesn't remind me of it. >> eventually -- there are concerns the consumer is tapping out or start ting to tap out to

some egree. i hear both of you, respectfully -- >> it's okay, go. >> -- explaining away it all. explaining away this sticky inflation. >> i don't know. i don't think we're explaining it away. >> i kind of do. >> look at marriott. look at services that continues to be on fire. consumer is still spending. savings rate, i'll give it to you, it's come down, but it's still at 3%. and jobs, if you want a job, you can get a job. 1.2 jobs available for every one unemployed person in this country. if the labor market is tight, wages are going higher, that is wonderful for the consumer. that's a tail wind. >> let's be clear. i'm not suggesting that we have a problem of staygflation today. when you get a gdp number that was a disappointment -- i get it, it's the fed's preferred measure, and it was okay

relative to the last few cpis. but if you continue to get reads of sticky inflation, and, you know, a chicago pmi of under 38 and you can't have consumer confidence start to wane, jim. at some point, you have to stand up and say, we might have an issue here. >> at some point. you said eventually before, and i agree with you. i don't think that steph and i are explaining it away. at some point this chicken has to come home to roost. what that looks like is either inflation comes down and up get the rate cuts in the future. where jason shows up, jason vorhees, if we talk rate hikes. i didn't see him coming out of the water and swamping that canoe at the end of "friday the 13th." you want to scare me, rate hikes. that scares me. >> so, josh brown, do you want to tell me what you're thinking before we get to amazon? >> yeah. there's no stagflation.

the most problematic part of this conversation and what jim and stephanie haven't really addressed yet is actually no such animal as, quote, unquote, the consumer. which consumer? because right now, when you hear companies saying that there's trading down or there was a little bit of cost pressure in some of their segments, when you hear mcdonald's and others say that, they're talking about a very specific part of the consumer base. the lowest income quintile. they are struggling. the rates on credit cards are through the roof. they're not able to refinance the way they could have a couple years ago. car leases are problematic, energy prices have risen. there's pressure. the lowest income 20% of u.s. consumers at the bottom of the income scale are only 9% of overall consumption.

the top 20% who are quite frankly right now driving the bus were 38% of spending last quarter. that probably hasn't changed. the next highest 20% is 23%, almost two-thirds of the economy is driven by spending from the top 40%. there's absolutely no change to that consumer. when we say the consumer this and that, they have nothing to do with each other. we have to be careful about prophecying stagflation because of, you know, a couple of things we're hearing on some earnings reports. >> no one is calling for it -- let's be clear -- hold on a second. hang on a second. hang on a second. no one is calling for it. but it obviously is in the

conversation of worries as to why when you get numbers like you did, you get a stock market reaction like you have -- when the cost index goes up, rates back up, then you get the couple of economic reads that are ugly and stocks go down. so it's in the conversation. i don't think we're sitting here some sort of prophecy suggesting that it's around the corner or even probable, but the fear of that word is enough to drag stocks down. >> yeah, but i'll go back to the earnings point that i wanted to make, which is that we have half the companies having reported. 77% have beaten on earnings. 60% have beaten on revenue. that's pretty good. the last five years, the average earnings per share beat rate is 77%. so we're kind of right on target. now you think about what's working in the market as a result of what you're talking about, if the market really

believed that stagflation is coming later this year narrative, i think the leadership would probably not be what it is right now. only 37% of technology stocks in the s&p 500 are below their 50 day, which means almost three-quarters of the index -- excuse me, two-thirds of the index, are in short-term bull markets. discretionary, only 38% are below a 50 day. most of those stocks are still in their own individual bull market. if the stagflation mayonarrativs having an impact, i don't think the market would look the way it looks now. >> it's a day, a few hours. it isn't anything that we are spending days and weeks discussing. >> true. >> we've been here before, by the way. last week you have gdp coming in late. a hotter inflation read. the market gets all upset. and then what happens? mega cap earnings come and save the day. we had the best week in the

stock market since november last week, even in the face of all that. i bring that up because, are we going to get a part two tonight where amazon reports and reminds us of why we're here in the first place, the kind of stocks we've bet on in the first place. and calms everything down again. >> amazon is going to be great. it is. it's going to be great. and it will help us all feel a little bit better. >> love that. >> the problem i have is the stock is up 18% year to date. and numbers have been creeping higher for aws to be 15, maybe 16% from 13% last quarter. >> right. the 13 is the estimate. you're talking about the whisper is much higher than what the estimate is. that means the bar is higher. >> that's absolutely right. that's why i say it's the problem. aws is just a piece of that, retail, online stores expected to be 7% growth. i think that's going to be great. i think margins will be great. they've done a great job in terms of cost cutting and the

fulfillment center buildout is done. i think it will be -- by the way, advertising, i also think will be an upside surprise as well. again, i think the expectations are superhigh. i trimmed a little bit the last couple of weeks. i would be more than happy buying it back if it's weak. >> josh, you also have these -- and i think meta is caught in the same thing of the a.i. aspirations versus cost cutting, right? meta's stock performance, they learned the hard way when you condition a marketplace that you've gotten over your excessive spending or at least large amounts of it and you come back, even if it's for something as believable as investors believe in a.i., you sort of take a pause. and i wonder what the impact might be on amazon if they come out and say, well, our cost cutting has to take a back seat for a minute because we need to ramp. we need to spend on a.i. that's the next growth area. >> so i think amazon is a

different animal -- i get your point, but i think amazon is a different animal from meta because a lot of the a.i., quote, unquote, spending that's taking place, is being spent with amazon. so, by the way, there's a reason why the numbers are creeping up, and that reason is both microsoft and google had their cloud sales accelerate last quarter versus the sequentially prior quarter. so it's not like out of the blue, all of a sudden everyone is excited. it's unlikely that you saw the acceleration you saw at the other two and not at aws which is arguably one of the better of the three or the five biggest cloud platforms. i think, also, part of the story here is that, you know, this is a stock where -- first of all, it's the only trillion dollar company that doesn't pay a dividend yet. we'll see if there's a capital return story here. i think there might be.

number two, the advertising business here is also growing as fast or faster than the cloud business. so i don't think the focus has to just be what's the aws number and then we just trade off of that, this is now the third biggest advertising business in the country, and, again, that is a growth business for amazon. and then the cost cutting story. you know, you talk about, like, is meta spending too much? is the street all of a sudden more focused on where are the profits from a.i., et cetera, et cetera? as stephanie and i have talked about for a long time, amazon has had tons of room to cut excess spending from all different areas of the business, and so i think if they give guidance there, that effort continues, that also should be good enough for the street tonight. >> jimmy, sales are expected at a record, but steph pointed to the year-to-date move in the stock, up more than 70% in the past year. is that an asset or a liability?

>> it depends on how you look at it. if you go back the last 3 1/2 years, it was flat. august of 2020 that it first reached the level it's at right now, and it's had sharp moves up and down in those three and a half years. it recently actually broke out to an all-time high. we marked that on the show about two weeks ago. >> we did. >> we pulled back with the market the last couple of weeks. it seems to me like it's set up for a breakout to higher levels. the overall performance of the company is startling. i'm looking at net income. that's what we own stocks for is their net income. net income has tripled over the last five years. and of those five years, 3 1/2 years the stock has done nothing. i'm comfortable owning amazon here. i think of all the large cap tech, it's the one that's the most positioned even after microsoft and google to outperform its earnings. >> the other one tonight, too, is amd, not to be forgotten

about. josh, i will get your take in a second. you have recent ownership in it. kristina partsinevelos is at the desk with us at post 9 because you've covered this, and how should we think about this in an environment where it's so dramatically underperformed, some of the other bigger names? >> the stock in the last month, a pullback of almost 15%. i think the concern with amd is you still have part of its business that is cyclical in nature. it is exposed to 20% of revenue, to more traditional servers. we know from intel, tsmc, a list of others, asml, they've talked about weakness in the first q1 and q2 and improvement in the second half. that is not necessarily good news for amd, which is why we will look at any type of trends on those two categories. on the flip side, all of this talk about capex spend, the a.i. chip, the mi-300x they had previously said the full year

2024 estimate was $3.5 billion. i say this because the number is extremely important. if they increase that estimate to $5 billion, which is what the street is anticipating, then you'll see shares react positively. that number is as high as 8 billion. so that's the commentary we're going to be looking for with this mi-300 series a.i. chip that will be the competitor to the h-100, h-200. >> what's the easy answer for why the stock has underperformed other names so dramatically, whether it's a broadcom? amd is only up 9. nvidia, for example, top of the heap, up 76%. why is it -- >> they are not necessarily solely a.i. plays. more than 50% of amd is embedded, gaming, pcs, and those don't necessarily benefit from this big a.i. boom. >> yeah, but they've made it pretty clear they're coming, right? >> that the improvement is coming in the segments?

>> yes, on a.i. some of the other companies are getting the benefit of the doubt bsh. >> but broadcom and marvell are actually benefiting in the near term. broadcom has the collaboration with google, so there's that difference, which is why they're seeing a lot of bigger upside right now versus amd that is still exposed to the cyclical nature. >> they need to talk about a.i. like 3,000 times on the call. >> there's a.i. fatigue to a certain point now. some investors, we're not seeing the monetization. this goes into greater tech as a whole. there's only so much you can say a.i. and say it will bring in revenues and then it doesn't. >> you still, steph, prefer the broadcoms and the lams to the amds? >> i trimmed both a couple weeks ago. i would buy lam research right back. after the quarter last week, they raised wafer fab equipment, gross margins are structurally higher so they're much more

profitable and i think they do have an a.i. component to it. we talked about memory needing six times a.i. being memory -- you need six times as much memory for a.i., so -- and this is a memory player. so, to me, this is one i want to own. it's not down enough. if we get a couple days like today, it's not so pretty, i might buy it back. >> josh, you sold amd a few months back. >> to answer your question, my opinion is, like, why does it look like this? right in the middle of the pack, if you rank it versus the other semis, that 9% year to date but is the 12th best out of 26 names in the smh etf. it's not bad. it's just not great. but to answer your question as to why, i think the bar is too high. expectations have gone up a lot. i think they can deliver, but it's not enough to deliver. you have to deliver and shock people to the upside. it's like the environment that we're in. the stock is trading 300 times

earnings. 44 times forward, fine. cheaper, lol. analysts are looking for $2.3 billion in data center revenue for this quarter. to put that into context, they did $1.3 billion last year. analysts are looking for a billion in incremental spend year over year. i think they can do it but is that going to be enough? 20 cents in earnings up from a loss of 9 cents last year. again, the bar is superhigh here. so that's why i think it looks the way it does. technically the stock is in no m man's land. i agree with stephanie. i love the name, i just don't want to pay for it where it is, and i don't like the sloppiness of the chart. >> kristina, this has been a darling over the last couple of ye years, clearly, until the a.i. story took over everything, and now you find out the winners

from the losers, at least in the near term apparently. not necessarily a loser, but from the astronomical winners -- >> the advantage of nvidia of the likes of the custom chip makers, marvell, broadcom, even the memory makers, too. they benefit from the high bandwidth memory needed in a lot of the a.i. chips. amd doesn't produce that. samsung's results prove that. these are benefits from micron, et cetera, not necessarily amd at the moment, unless they blow it out of the water at their data center forecast for the mi-300. >> thanks for the setup. appreciate it. kristina partsinevelos. speaking of setups, it's interesting coming off the week we just had, i said the best week for the s&p since november, you did have people apparently getting more bullish because you've had, according to bank of america's equity client flows, the biggest inflow in some eight weeks. what are we buying? what are their clients buying?

staples high on the list. speaking of, stephanie link's new buy, a fresh buy, p&g. >> i own those staples. i was looking for one. when i saw this quarter, it was actually very good. organic growth, 7%. gross margins up 300 basis points. that is just amazing. it's productivity. it's pricing. i like their product set. it's not cheap by any means. i just think this is a really solid story, and it's a defensive position to offset some of the more cyclical stuff. >> i'm glad you used the word defensive. that's where i was going off this buy. if you look at our fed survey, for example, stock outlook and the risk says that stocks have largely put in gains for the year. so maybe buying some staples positions fits as we bring in our senior economics reporter, steve liesman, into the conversation as we begin the fed meeting, the decision in the

news conference tomorrow. as we know that things have taken a more hawkish turn, steve. >> yeah, they've begun to dial out rate hikes this year, scott, along with the futures market. more hawkish. a couple things in this survey, the only 50% or greater month for a rate cut is december now. they're 48 and 48 in september. they have an average 1.6 cuts dialed in. you can see here what you're looking at is something different, scott. that is the actual futures market, and that's come off a lot from this morning's eci index. the market has price wise thrown out june, thrown out july, and now pretty much working on throwing out september, which is in line with our forecast, scott, at that 50% range. it's really up in the air now, a jump ball. i don't know what you want to call it, whether or not there's one or two cuts in year and

whether there's any at all. they did move cuts into 2025. so we do have that in front of us, and that's when the 29 respondents have better returns for the stock market, 2025. so that might be a story for there. they raised the neutral rate which brings up the idea how tight the fed is. one of the things we're on the edge of our seat tomorrow, scott, is does powell introduce more two-sided risk to the direction of rates? >> well, you know, look, i'm sure tomorrow during the news conference that somebody in the room is going to end up asking a question to the chair regarding stagflation, and i'm curious as to how you're thinking about how they're thinking about that fear at this point. >> you know, scott, i'm kcuriou why stagflation has become a go-to possibility. as i look back on the history, scott, i think we've had one

bout of stagflation in, like, 50 years. for stagflation to happen, something has to go wrong. the price mechanism has to be on the fritz in the sense that if you have the stag part of this, no growth or even negative growth, then the normal result is that prices should begin to ease or inflation should begin to ease. that's what you would expect. that's normally what happens. you have one bout in the 1980s, i believe it was, the early '80s, you had no growth and high inflation, and that was maybe because of the idea of what was happening with oil prices and the cartel jacking up and keeping oil prices high, inflation expectations out of control, bad monetary policy. stagflation is an outlier of a possibility. the more poignant or more likely conversation is one of, do we have a recession? and is that recession what is needed to bring down prices to

the fed's target? that's really where the conversation, i think, is the more sort of odds-on probable conversation. >> let's just pick up quickly where you just left off, because you said something that really stuck with me and you alluded to it now. the idea when we started this whole thing, the fed thought they had to raise unemployment to get inflation under control. then inflation started dropping precipitously while growth remained strong and then it pivoted to the conversation about, hey, let's not break what we don't have to break. we can still get inflation down and keep the economy strong. you said something yesterday, though, to the effect of maybe we're coming back to where we were before where now we could be facing higher growth, higher inflation. does the fed need to do more that they figure they didn't have to do to get inflation down to target? >> yeah. welcome to act three, scott, of the endless play of the economy that we're in here. i think act one was the concern

about that. two, it didn't come to fruition, and the rekindling of that. we have 50% of respondents think you need both below potential growth and a higher unemployment rate in order to get to the fed's 2% target. now if you don't have those, can you count on more supply side improvement? larry summers has a tweet out i want to read to you, scott, that just came out a few minutes ago, where he said the federal reserve is in a treacherous environment. should have been more careful about easing signals and now should be very cautious about possible rate cutting. now larry is not saying they're introducing this two-sided risk, but i am talking to people who think the fed ought to put the market on notice that a cut is not a given for the next move for the federal reserve. >> interesting. steve, thanks. >> a pleasure. >> steve liesman.

up next, more moves from steph in her portfolio, adding to two key positions. we'll break them down. plus, spinoff success stories. breakups have been a big win for investors. our "chart of the day." an interesting story next. 70 degrees and sunny today. amelia, unlock the door. i'm afraid i can't do that, jen. ♪ (suspenseful music) ♪ why not? did you forget something? ♪ (suspenseful music) ♪ my protein shake. the future isn't scary. not investing in it is. you're so dramatic amelia. bye jen. nasdaq-100 innovators. one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com.

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see why comcast business powers more small businesses than anyone else. get started for $49.99 a month plus ask how to get up to an $800 prepaid card. don't wait- call today. welcome back. we have some committee stocks on the move today. ge health care on pace for its worst day ever. sorry. you bought more of it.

you're laughing all the way to the buy more button. >> well, i had to. i think it's an overreaction. you can't miss in this environment. the stock is up 40% from the october lows. they missed earnings, they missed revenue, but i still like what they're doing in services. i think book to bill is good, orders are still there. they did see volume softness in imaging. their guidance is like back half loaded and no one likes that. i think the company is set up very well. that's why i'm adding to it. >> you bought more 3m as well. >> i did. i think the stock should be up more. operating income up 22%. their margins were up over 300 basis points year over year and beat the street. so, to me, i think this is just the beginning. bill brown starts tomorrow. you have a great leader with a

proven track record when he was at l3 harris. i like it very much. >> it reminded us of how well the spinoffs have done. i want you to take the index, the etf that tracks this from the october low, october 27, to today up 31.5%. dominated by industrials. no big surprise. a spinoff from ge, from danaher, ge health care we talked about, why is this working so well? industrials, by the way, an index weighting of near half. >> it unlocks value. the management team is focused on the one business not three or four different businesses. you actually get the proper sell side analyst coverage because when ge was covered by the

industrials, the health care piece and the renewables business got ignored and was underappreciated. when you spin them out, you can focus 100% of your attention. one of my best spins was back in 2013. they spun out from pfizer, up 500%. since then it's not been a good stock this year but a great spin. >> speaking of, health care is 15% of the index weight for zoetis. technology is number three. josh, how do you think about spinoffs and whether they're going to be successful or not, whether it's a reason to buy into a name? >> so i think it's an individual story dependent thing. the premise of the spinoff, stephanie is right. the academic literature is pretty clear. the thing that's really interesting is very often the best approach is to hold both

the parent company and the spin-co and not choose between the two, because then you have two focused management teams, and then you often -- so we focus a lot on the baby but oftentimes the parent becomes unencokcumbered much like my wi and i when the kids are at summer camp. when you have a spinoff, a lot happen in a sector. we've seen this in energy, in industrials and health care, oftentimes there's just a refocus happening, and you want to keep both pieces. and i've seen that work very successfully. as far as just buying the spin-cos, scott, you want to know what you're buying and there are different situations. >> the other reminded me as we have this conversation, steph, you own ibm. you did not buy the other, though.

>> i didn't like the business. it's not a bad stock, but i didn't like the business. i liked that ibm is getting smaller, shrinking to grow. i preferred it and put my money back into ibm. >> interesting. let's get the headlines with pippa stevens. secretary of state antony blinken said the gaza will be ready in a week. the pier built offshore by u.s. troops will help move humanitarian aid into gaza where the u.n. says people are on the brink of famine. an expert panel recommends breast cancer screening start at age 40, reversing guidance women wait until 50. the preventative services task force cited rising rates of breast cancer among women in their 40s. rates have gone up 2% every year from 2015 to 2019. some researchers argue the guidance does not go far enough. and the environmental protection agency finalized a

ban on a chemical widely used in paint strippers. officials say it is known to cause health problems. the new rule comes weeks after the epa banned asbestos. scott, back to you. >> pippa, thank you. coming up, "calls of the day." a bullish one on live nation. josh owns it. we trade it next. [sfx: wind, rain and rolling thunder] nobody's born with grit. british announcer: rose is really struggling. it's something you build over time. american announcer: that's 21 missed cuts in a row. [car trunk slammed shut] for 88 years, morgan stanley has offered clients determination and forward thinking to create the future... crowd: stop it! ...only you can see. american announcer: rose, back in the winner's circle. [crowd cheers] [music out]

keep an eye on the markets this final trading day month of april shaping up to be a difficult one. the dow down 400. the s&p 500 down about 45 points. that's less than 1% on the s&p. we'll continue to watch that as we do our "calls of the day." live nation, josh, price target up 30%. stock reports on thursday. it is having a terrible month. why? >> it's down about 10% since "the wall street journal" reported on an investigation or whatever is going to happen. analyst agrees with what i think here. i'll just quote what they're

saying. we believe the most likely outcome of a potential regulatory investigation will be pro-consumer reforms which shouldn't be materially disruptive to live nation's business opportunity and not a more drastic structural remedy. so you have a company that's going to deliver double digit earnings growth for as far as the eye can see. a one-of-a-kind asset. it's really a jewel. it's an area of entertainment and leisure that they are the best player, the best possible way to invest, and they are a very high-level operator from michael rapinoe all the way down. i'm a long-term investor and the stock under $100 is a gift. >> jimmy, citi was called the favorite stock in oppenheimer's q1 bank review today. >> i feel that's been happening more in the past six months. they are getting behind

citibank. i believe it should have happened a long time earlier. the company is streamlining itself. pays a nice dividend. buys back shares by the ton and jane frasier has had a credible plan. i think there's more room to run. >> let's debate boeing. downgrade d at argus. steph, you own it. jim, you did own it. you did love it. you sold it, and you wouldn't touch it. steph, it's down 30% year to date. >> oh, yes, i know. i definitely know. >> sorry to remind you. >> i've been saying it's dead money until they make the announcement of the ceo. in the meantime, i'm thinking longer term. they have 5,600 planes in their backlog. up 7 billion. they will get through the 737 max issue. they will event ually get to 50

planes a month. it is down so much. by the way, they have $10 billion debt deal that was eight times oversubscribed. yesterday that was announced. it's not going to take much. >> okay. so, steph, you know how i feel about the company. 737 max, yes, they will get through it. yes, they will get through the crises they're facing now. scott knows it, you know it, i know it, boeing needs to exist. the government knows it. the nation knows that boeing needs to exist. my concern has been since the alaska airlines disaster, is the government will have to step in to really get their operations on track. i hope i'm wrong. you know i hope i'm wrong. i'm worried the government will have to step in and say to hell with profits. we need boeing to work. >> i feel like they already are doing that. they can't get back to 38 planes a month, they delivered three last month. it will take some time. eventually it will happen.

>> all right. you've had patience with some other stories that have taken time and they worked. patience is a virtue. ever hear that? >> i have. we're trading big earnings movers aad.he mike santoli is on the other side of this quick break with his "midday word."

♪ our senior markets commentator mike santoli here for his "midday word." with the dow now down about 423, i guess we've had too many sticky inflation reads for comfort. >> yes. >> at this point. and this is participate of the reaction. >> it's part of the reaction. i think when it comes to actually what powell says tomorrow everyone is pretty hawked up already. the numbers tell you, you should be in a way.

it's not met the threshold for greater confidence inflation is heading to a target. on the other hand, there's no dot plot to have to explain away, right? we don't have that this meeting. he can take whatever stance and say he's data depend enter. we know the data. i'm not sure there's a ton of surprises but the numbers are what they are which is you can't quite be comfortable even if we talk our way around the extraordinary items about the inflation side. it's static. it's good growth. earnings are coming through fine. it's what do you pay for them in this environment at this point of the cycle? >> the bulls cannot leave the meeting tomorrow even thinking about a hike. that fully upsets the story. we expect hawkish, at least a hawkish tilt, but if he goes there, we probably have a problem. >> it's a question how he goes there. risks are balanced on other side and who knows what the data will tell us to do. fine. i don't think he will fully withdraw this idea he believes

rates are restrictive relative to where they think neutral is. that would be a big surprise if he says, listen, this economy is impervious and, therefore, we have to go higher. >> sure, but irrespective of what the other fed speakers since the last meeting have said, he's the one who has repeatedly made you believe that they're done, right? >> sure. >> they're done. >> the way you say we're done, we believe policy is restrictive and it will be appropriate to normalize it at some point. it will be that kind of fed speak. i think the market most wants to get through it and then figure out where we are in terms of tabulating the earnings picture. and then on a tactical basis, we got this bounce. it fail at the 50-day average and now the sellers will come out and say maybe there's more to be done. >> we'll see what it looks like when i see you on "closing bell." mike santoli joining me at 3:00. coming up, we'll set you up.

we have a lot of stocks on the move owned by the committee. we'll trade all those next. (♪♪) iconic brands speak for themselves. we are so excited to welcome you to our community. today is all about you. (♪♪) (♪♪)

all right. some committee stocks on the move today. nxp, they beat. jimmy, you own it. you trimmed it a couple months ago. we can take a look at the performance of the stock, there it is. it is up 1.75%. >> this has been a little unsung darling in my portfolio for self several years. but the guidance was okay, it was in line. according to a second half recovery in the auto sector in particular, obviously expectations were very low here with what's going on with tesla and other electric vehicle

manufacturers. i think, though, this is getting a little long in the tooth for me. i'm having a hard time saying that, but it's getting long in theth tooth. so i did trim it. >> keep us up to date. eaton, receiveny, new all-time high today. that stock is -- >> it's reversed. >> why has it reversed? >> the stock has had such a nice run. but they did have a very good quarter. electrical ran the show, if you will, up 17%. aerospace up 9% in sales. really solid results from those two big parts of the company. margin is up 630 basis points. so if it continues to pull back, i will be adding to it. >> jimmy, you want to take on rig transocean, better than expected loss, right? revenues missed. >> yes, and why is the stock down 11%? i talked yesterday about the

fact that we need these idle rigs to come back online. that's on track but clearly people were hoping for it to happen sooner than it is going to happen. the company said the active fleet for the entire industry is going to be all used up, all contracted out by the end of the year. and then there will be calls on those idle rigs. they said, we're not going to be the first to go, we'll hold out for the higher price, what they have always done. this 11% decline is way overdone -- >> hey, jeff? >> yes, josh? >> why wouldn't they do a reverse split? why are they allowing the stock -- it's been a penny stock for five years. what are they thinking? >> i think the answer is it's so darn volatile, josh. it's at eight, then four, now five and change. i think they're thinking it's going higher from here. >> the stock has been, i think -- i think this stock for seven years now, has been under

$10. it just seems very unshareable friendly. i'm just curious. >> go back to before the pandemic. they are approaching those financial numbers in terms of revenue and income, and the stock was above $10 then. i'm not arguing, but it should be higher. >> a quick bakre. "finals" are next. that's right james, it isn't. car, where are we going? we're here. (♪♪) surprise!!! the future isn't scary. not investing in it is. car, were you in on this? nothing gets by you james. nasdaq-100 innovators. one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com

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okay. jim? >> abvie. >> stephanie? >> raytheon. >> josh? >> amazon. i'll see you on "closing bell." welcome to "the exchange." here is what's ahead we're just a little more than 24 hours away from the fed's next decision on interest rates, and one of our guests says we could be in for a hawkish surprise. she's here to tell us what she means by that, and we'll look at how to position from here. plus, here comes amazon. expectations are high, and that's okay because the tech giant is firing on all cylinders. our guest is here with w