name for a while obviously they face some of the same issues we saw last year it doesn't appear to be systemic at this time. good to have you with us today, leslie. >> thank you, tyler. thanks for watching "power lunch," everybody. >> "closing bell" starts right now. leslie, thanks so much welcome to "closing bell." i'm scott wapner this make-or-break hour begin resilient. even as cautious comments begin to flood the street. we'll ask our experts whether that's warranted or not as another big week is about to heat up. in the meantime your chlorocard looks like that, green across the board. apple, an analyst comes off the

sidelines for some six years rising stocks, falling sentiment, and where the stocks might be heading dan greenhouse is with me. welcome back. >> thank you, sir. >> it's interesting we have had resilient market, stocks rising again. i feel like sentiment is slipping, deteriorating. is yours are you still bullish? less so? what's the story. >> i feel pretty much the same we have talked the last couple weeks that the market -- i hate say due for a correction, because that means nothing, but it felt like the internals suggested running out of steam, and we did really, what is the difference between 5% and 7%, we're splitting hairs here it feels like the market wants

to stabilize at this level obviously with the fed on the horizon. >> i have technicians saying we're going to pull lower, rbs saysle pullback may not be over. that's sort of to my point. >> yeah. >> the market bounced back sharply, but it feels like sentiment is offsides. we spent two, three points -- >> it felt like that, though. >> it does there's a feel that maybe we need more than a 5% pull back. the fact that it's only 4%, 4.5%, 5%, may be insufficient. >> adam parker told me today on

halftime about his new note. the headline is -- our recommendation had been the bull case was far more probable, driving the judgment there was material up side to the s&p 500, but now our view has changed tell me why. >> the three pillars to the pull case were easy financial conditions, gross margins expanding, and we always worried about a tightening set of conditions, slowing consumer, and china recovery that's pumped some cyclical pressure on inflation a bid. two, the consumer is definitely slowing. and then, third, we scoured every word of every earnings call transcript year to date for any mention of china, china growth, china demand, china initiatives. it really hasn't picked up

>> do you think the three pillars are weakening? >> i understand what he's getting at he's obviously warm-up best market watchers there is my view is over the last week and change, revenue expectations with reporters has only gone up, call it, 50 basis points, but expectations have jumped so from a margin standpoint, you've seen some support right now. granted, a lot of the heavy lifting was down by meta and google, but when you look up and down the spectrum of sectors, i don't really noise, other than healthcare, most of the sector seems to be holding in there that, i think has a lot to do with margins goldman put on note outthat he expect the market to chop around a bit, maybe volatility will

pick up a bit. there's time to go for the breaks and the gas he's been pretty bullish, too. >> i think tony is probably right. leaving aside what they're doing with the fund or not, when you look at the size, scope and scale of the rally off the october lows, and lawer the stickiness and the inflation and what will probably be an ongoing shift in the fed's narrative coming from jay powell at the meeting next week, i wouldn't be surprised to be a dampener on the market. >> is that what you think? a change in tone or language >> i think you've already had it we're going to bring in -- >> the meeting starts tomorrow. >> sure, sure, but it will be hard for him to say, as he had been arguing, the date was going to gift in a way to give them confidence when he has the press conference on wednesday, and i think my

expectation and everyone's expectation, he'll make a dissloor com what sounded to us like we want to cut by the summer to something interpreted as we just don't have enough data >> let's bring in our expert, steve liesman. how about that are we expecting a changes in language from chair powell >> yeah, i think he has to skew more hawkish about the current data, but i got to throw something back the thing i'm interested in here, scott is -- this maybe sound sect derivative, but powell have the confident he will get the confidence? in other words, did she is forecasts remain that inflation

will come down in the future that's the forecast of the fomc. do they feel secure about that so, it's really not a matter of are they abandoning cuts, because i don't think they're doing that i think they're delaying them. i think that's a big difference in that for the market i suspect they're going to hold on to the confident, inflation will be coming down. what he will do is excuse more hawkish. at least, if he does skew more hawkish, what happens to stocks? first off, i think the confidence is not there. it's amazing that even one data point is sufficient to -- but pces are better. it's most certainly different.

i imagine steve would agree, obviously the pc siismt more or less coming in line couldn't a much more different conversation >> i would say so, but i imagine, steve, you'll great, if the totality of the data, and so i think when you put the pc, along with the counter pi, and the idea that the economy is holding up, they're going to come down on the side of, what's the rush? >> i'll tell you where i'm working now, scott, has he now, look, you go back a couple years to jackson hole where powell was fairly convinced to bring inflation down that didn't happen now we get to the last-mile question i'm wonder if powell is at a point where, hey, we could do it we'll ask this question in the fed survey and said, do you

think we can go ahead to the -- can the fed get to the target without a potential growth and without the unemployment rate rising by half a point 50% say, no, they can't do it without those things happening that may be where we are right now. hopefully we ask explore on wednesday the evolution of the chair's thinking that, hey, we got this first part, mostly and largely supply chain improvement with a bit of fed tightening on top of it. now it's all on fed tightening remember, scott, today in our poll, our survey, it's opening day or bidding on the q2 number, but basically we're looking still above potential growth, and that's been a string, so i don't know if we can get back to the 2% target without that, and i don't know if the chair believes that yet. >> wow you're potential saying we could

be setting ourselves up for another say minutes of hawkish that's alluding to what you were suggesting, which i think that whole speech was eight minutes long, but that's all it had to be >> i don't know if he's gotten there yet, but there's a couple people out there barry knapp had a nice comment on our survey, look, we can't do it without fiscal tightening or less fiscal input here the chair won't say anything about that and has no control. if the fiscal deficits are going to run the way they are, the fed chair has to deal with that, and that appears to be a reality, which brings me to another topic we probably shouldn't mitt we might get a qt announcement, and maybe an equally significant

treasury funding announcement. so whatever you're drinking wednesday morning in terms of coffee, i would double it up it's going to be an interesting day. i'm looking right as we speak, i think this just moved on the treasury, quarterly financial estimates about the number to which they're going to have to borrow, and they look to me to be higher than prior estimates i wonder if that's why the stock market's lost like 100 points almost in the last five minutes, and the s&p now is, i don't know, about a range of a ten-point swing. it's up, now it's lower, too there's a lot of moving targets on a lot of different things >> it is a multi-varied occasion dan greenhaus will smile about that, i believe.

the one good thing we have going, scott when i look at the company, my assessment at this moment is we have risks, but there don't appear tock evident weakness you don't see that -- you don't see necessarily in our cnbc retail monitor, yeah, there is some talk about lead consumer, but all of that is part of the reason why i think the fed can lean hawkish and will lean hawkish and keep this idea of these higher rates, which, by the way, don't forget, they are very restrictive there's an argument the fed could trim a bit without having much effect on the restrictiveness. >> just more context, i remember

the last estimate was below expectations that took a bit of a simmer off where yields were going. the stock market definitely got a jump on that it works both ways steve, the next couple days will be interesting i look forward to that thank you, steve let's bring in shannon now nice to see you as well. game out this market in what is a specially pivotal weekend again. everything >> yeah, there's tons of push and pull it's macro versus micro, past versus future, coming into this earnings season, you know, it wasn't all that demanding from a top/bottom line perspective. we've been looking for that guidance a lot of people are pointing to

earnings season not being that bad, probably better that expected, yada, yada, yada, especially with the cost cutting that's gone on the last 12 months, but looking forward we're looking at guidance. what are they guiding for? a reacceleration of manufacturing? guiding for middle and high-income consumers to remain engaged? when you think about the fed, powell can go hawkish in the wednesday meeting. in our view, he's not good going to hike rates. we're at peak rates from the fed perspective, in our view the confidence will come with the past of the q1 gdpnor, you're looking at reacc reacceleration, does that offset the consumer

prospectively we need to think about where are earnings going to go, with inflation stickier, scott, maybe we don't see the top-line declines, and maybe the comps weren't as bad as they were >> i get it. distill all of that down to me on your market view, and whether you agree with adam parker, driving our judgment there was material up side i'm quoting from his vote against. i'll read to you, times to go for the brakes or the gad? my instinct is equity people should be tapping the brakes have things changed incrementally? >> in the short term, as we get further along, there is more risk to the equity market. earnings keep investors in their seats. they can look at the results, and they get a better sense.

once we get out of earnings season, we get into no-man no-man's-land, what does this next economic data point and the fed has backed us into that thinking. we're just as data dependent as the fed is that's not good for the equity market we need to keep a longer-term view if everyone is thinking about what does it mean in the next few weeks yes, after earnings season, that macro takes over, and right now it's not that supportive. >> shannon, i'm going to disagree the idea that somehow the market being more data dependent is a bad thing would be true if the data was moving in the wrong direction, or wasn't good. right now, as steve alluded to earlier, you have stronger than expected gdp earnings season is going better

than expected. we talked about -- steve talked about some of the strength of the consumer you're also not hearing any -- so, to the extend we move pasted next fed meeting, inflation will be a concern, but the data underlying the growth and the economy, and the data boosting the stock market has been, for lack of a better word, has been pretty darn good >> because the s&p 500 is dominated, continues to be concentrated in the top end of stocks that is a much higher valuation, so, for me it's a multiple perspective the multiples which are impacted by rates, impacted by inflation, that's where you're seeing a shorter-term weakness.

i disagree, yes, credit card delinquencies have moved up, but autos have not even though credit cards are there's an undercurrent of growth to be fair, and steeism made this opponent last week. as long as the market is -- i -- >> bears would have you believe growth is growing too fast, megacaps are overvalued, blah, blah, blah and at each train stop, the train has left the station without them i'm looking at "wall street journal," puts on social media

some 13 minutes ago -- the new york fed's measure of inflation persistence declined to 2.6, from a downwardly revise the estimate in february, and 3% in january. so, don't tell me we've got some overly, either, sticky inflation problem or the fact we're trying to tick in the other direction at least by some measures, it's not happening. inflation is still trending by virtue of what the pce reported in the right direction, yet you have the nay sayers who look at the cpi the last few and say, see? i told ya. i'm sorry, shannon, i meant to address that to you specifically. >> that's okay we think inflation will be lower by the end of the year the challenge is we started with

six to eight rate cuts, then to four now we're a little under two for expectations so i think there's still folks in the equity market that are looking at the potentially for rate cuts to be the -- >> is that bad >> no. >> i'm trying to figure out, is that bad >> no. >> the market went up 20% the whole time. >> no, absolutely not. absolutely not i think that that is where, if you look at that tipping point, we're in this tipping point where the second half of the year is likely to be considered by the trend of improving economic growth. perhaps not as hot, but that slowing will allow the fed the latitude to move our view is by the end of the year, interest rates will be lower, the economy will continue to be positive and we won't see a sharp up tick in unemployment. i think there could be some

volatility in this pertain between now and, say, mid june. >> shannon is right about a lot of what you just said. i agree with a lot one thing i'll reiterate from before, the reason why you care about interest rates and tech stocks is because they are what everyone jokingly calls long-duration assets so if you are a riskier stock and more of the value of your company is in the terminal value, then lower interest rates is better. for a google, for a media, all of whom reported 17%, 25%, there's earnings right now in the case of google, obviously not. those companies are much less acceptable i don't think shannon necessarily disagrees that in this type of environment those

companies should be a premium multiple google and meta are trading like 22, 23 times earnings, so it's not exactly the group as a whole is extremely expensive the data underneath the economy and the stock market being relatively strong, while i agree with shannon and said earlier, you probably will have a bit of a choppy moment, at the end of the day, if those tailwinds remain in place, all else equal, the bias should be to the up side. >> shannon, last word. >> listen, the shorter term versus longer term, by the end of the year, rates are lower, growth remains intact. we just think the opportunities are in sectors outside of big

cap tech. >> one mo question, then, because i feel like it's left open by the end of the year, if up to talk about rate cuts, where is the s&p 500? is it higher or lower than 5100? >> i think there's a possibility it remains higher, but it really relies on the fact we need to see the economy in a consistent groove, and the up tick we don't talk about enough globally, i think that will be a helpful catalyst. >> shannon, we'll leave it there. thank you both to kristina partsinevelos for a key stocks she's watching into the close >> consumer fintech sofi plunged today, even after beating expectations wall street was luking for second quarter revenues about 580 million dollars, but sofi said they can only expect 555 to

565 million. it was a lot less than what the street was anticipating, the company saying 2024 remains a transitional year. domino's may be used to putting topping on pizza, but today topped wall street estimates for the first quarter. u.s. same-store sales grew during the first quarter, which the ceo contributed to the hungry for more plan investors clearly hungering for move of this. thank you. we'll see you in a bit navigating the tech trade. amazon and apple results are front and center this week lo toney is tannistanding by, ad jo joins us after the break

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nasdaq giving up earlier ga gains. apple is climbing after an upgrade from bernstein, an analyst on the sidelines for some six year lo toney, welcome back >> thank for having me >> before we look ahead, let's look back. what was your takeaway from the big tech reports that came out a.i. means both artificial intelligence and additional income what we saw from the big three i saw in alphabet, microsoft and meta, the first two, alphabet and microsoft really delivered i think they have given a very clear articulation of how

they're looking at the opportunity in a.i. to drive revenues at the same time really have articulated a little more clarity around how the return on investments from the investing they're making to support a.i. will play out. even though meta did deliver great returns, the lack of clarity around how their investments will drive additional revenue, i think needs to be further understood when you look at meta, they announced an additional $5 billion or so whether they announced the virtual reality, right? so you think this metaverse investment that meta did that

didn't quite play out, investors are looking at a.i., wanting more clarity how those investments will drive growth. >> was alphabet the standout the fact that the stock is up 10% over the past month and continues to trade at what some would suggest is a much more reasonable valuation, with not nearly as much of a premium as a come the other names you could point out. >> first of all, it doesn't help when a different is announced along with a share buyback putting that aside, i think looking at the comments around the ceo for the infrastructure that alphabet has, they're very bullish that's the best infrastructure in the business to be able to deliver on the promise for a.i. i think going back to your

comment, yeah, alphabet i think is very well positions and hay clearly articulated a return strategy that we believe will deliver at least a a 50 percent return investment. i think it also shows that the search business, youtube business, the core businesses for the revenue drivers and income drivers for alphabet are showing a lot of resiliency. 'we look towards this environment where we may see increasing, or at least no rate cuts, you know, normally that environment is devastating for growth companies, but as your guest alluded to, that's because a lot of these revenue streams around the back end, but when you look at a company like alphabet, they're delivers cash flows with a different share buyback and delivering revenue right now. i think it's very well positioned. >> let's talk amazon, then

apple. what are your expectations this week >> i think amazon will deliver solid results. i think what the market is looking for in everything i'm seeing is the analysts feel like there's more that could be delivered from amazon stock. when you look at the fundamentals, yeah, i would have to agree i think there's more that amazon can deliver based on what we're seeing with these trends >> and then apple, which i mentioned at the very stop of our program gets this upgrade by toni sacconaghi, who hasn't had a buy or outperform in six years. finally comes off the sidelines and said, quote, buy the fear. >> there's definitely a lot to fear first of all, analysts are expected probably a buck 50 over a little over 90 billion in top

line those are solid numbers, but there's a bit of a drag because of what's happening in china the interesting takeaway you i said from the bernstein analyst is a lot of people are concerned because of shifting behavior in china, especially among the younger audience, coupled with the fact that some of the domestic manufacturers in china have really made strides to at 5g technology, long with more advanced feature that are at a price point that competes with some of the lower-end iphones that apple is selling in china this analyst has more the a contrarians view he doesn't feel -- he feels that that's just cyclical, right? a lot of that is because of the pressure that the chinese economy is under, and kind of once that pressure is relieved, the consumer's taste will shift back toward the higher-end price

point that apple delivered if we think about the cycle, we didn't see a lot of consumer demand from the 5g upgrade it was more of the push from apple to make sure that the functionality, the foundational functionality will be in place once some killer apps come through, maybe in the form of artificial reality we'll have to look at the vision numbers, but perhaps we'll see a return to normalcy with this next upgrade cycle when -- much anticipated will be some of the a.i. functionality built into the phones maybe that would be more of a consumer pull. >> it will be a fun week thanks for previewing it >> thank you. up next, was last week's choppy trading the sign of a bigger pullback in jeff degraaf

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joining us know. do you believe in it should we no doubt we're in an up trend. we look for external oversold condition, internal oversold condition, and then we like to do so a sentiment put for all at

least conditions, it's great you have to them >> if you bait for all three to happened, when we get two out of three, as meatloaf said, it ain't bad. we still have the trend. i think everybody would subject that we were. maybe that's a difference maker. >> no doubt it's been the case for at least six months now, we think the biggest risk is elevated ten-year yields that translate specifically into elevated we'll yields.

so, we'll see what happens, but i think, absolutely, you know, if you had to say what is the biggest risk to equities here, from a valuation standpoint, all of these filter back to real yields that's one thing i they can keep -- we're in an up trend that usually means you go into a consolidation, refresh and break out higher again and adam parkers put out a note that he's less bullish, because maybe china is not recovering like we expected it to, whereas you say you're becoming more strategically bullish. how so >> that's interesting. i know adam, but not his research that said, we made a tactical call on china back in early february

i will be the first to say it was luckier than good. that was a tactical call sometimes that call will turn into a strategic because, because we start to see evidence the trend is changing. we saw a breakout to hong kong, the kissing cousin to china. we're seeing a 65-day breakout in the shanghai 300. the 50-day is not yesterday through the 200 day, but incrementally, build by build, we're starting to see better things happen. i think it's reflected in some of the metals we're seeing globally maybe who we're seeing is the about rates here will end up putting a lit on the inflationary pressures, but at the same time the batten gets passed to china, and they start to help buoy growth.

we think the markets in china are turning, but we're making the case that they are turned. >> we'll see you soon, jeff. >> thank you. jeff degraaf pippa stevens has -- >> we've got all the details, cummings up next

let's get back to pippa stevens now. >> phillips is surging after the medical devices company agreed

to $1.1 billion settlement in the u.s., linked to the recall of some of its sleep apnea devices. the company did not admit fault or liability those shares up 20% at a two-year high. roku is in the green the stock says it was oversold, but it was connected, and the risk/reward is attractive. >> we appreciate that, pippa tesla shares are ahead, marking a major milestone for the driver assist in service details. we'll have more, next.

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coming up next, nxp reporting. can that momentum continue we will discuss, when we take xtu inside theart ne mkezo, mkezo, ne

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we're in the "closing bell" market zone. mike santoli is here to break down the crucial moments of this trading day. plus tesla heading toward its best days in three years mike, turning to you first earnings are important first, not whether the fed chair will be hawkish it's moisture, how hawkish is the question >> will he hold out hope that inflation will moderate? will he focus on the lags indicators that they still think will be helpful to them along the way, and, yes, he was saying earlier how much does he really think you have to slow this down and really if he shows any toll rants at all, where the committee thought it would be around all of that does matter.

it's like he got a -- stabilized off of that, market found its earnings in aggregate. that's not really the part of the story you're too worried about. so you see some sensitivity to the moving yields at the top of the hour it's so silly that the equity market is -- the bond market barely budged. this was nothing else to focus on but it actually takes a shot it also shows you the lingers trauma of last year. treasury supplies are running off control. that was the story in late summer i feel like everyone is making sure they're not caught offsides, even though it doesn't seem like mvp of a threat. it's interesting to me on the bernstein upgrade. it seems very lolgts cal

the valuation is lower than it was. people have not really expecting much fundamentally out of it it feels like it's fine, and tesla bouncing today, the other ones are backing off today so it makes some kind of sense i don't know if it really makes too much of a thing about an earnings later in part of the week it's not that much of a business bellwether, you know it's its own thing tesla best day in more than three years. >> he does you'll hear from him shortly explaining what it -- and it's all about the potential for future revenue growth, especially as it does offer full

self-driving technology in china. this deal expands the driver technology ability within china. , remember, it's not fully autonomous, just full self-driving sources also tell us that baidu will provide the mapping data. regardless, it's unclear when tesla might be able to tap into -- and morgan stanley likes this he write -- whether he's sleeping on a floor or the plane, a message is clear. he's back. because he's back, you have another pop in tesla shares today. it was down about $460 billion, just last tuesday, now topping $600 billion that's an idea of where we are in terms of the market and how quickly things can change. >> back in terms of his takeaways, all in are the words

he used, phil. >> yeah, he believes that. look, if you take the conference call with analysts, these are the two best days, if you're a tesla bull, the two best days to hang your hat on to say, yeah we have a vision here thank you, phil lebeau to kristina, what does it look like here >> they got it below estimates, reflecting softer auto, as well as industrial end market and inventories. let exposed, because it made sure not to over shift it also has fewer shares it's exposure to china, given that it was nxp's biggest market, so watch out for any

comments or slowdowns for that market evercore and lsi are both they would revise the model which could be a positive for shares should that happen >> thank you, kristina we'll see you in "overtime." the a.i. chips get all the headlines. >> they are getting all the headlines, though i think people are alert for the turn chip space as well, just because it's been on the outs for a while what is fascinating, too, is the way the earnings reports are getting received, even when they're forgiving, even with meta, it's a decision to spend more their destiny is in their control. and so we'll see if that carries

through some of the big guys like amazon, that's why we have a premium. we had a bump, i don't know, about 59 minutes ago we recovered, though we're going to go out green across the board i'll seal you tomorrow green on the screen ahead of a major week of catalysts for investors. >> buckle up form it's the busiest week of earnings season. this hour we'll get paramount, as rumors swirl. nxp semiconductors, cheg, fs,