that's the deal maybe they can get something done, but it does mean paramount will get hless money. >> thank you the s&p is going strong, and it's not just consumer discretionary. >> yeah, let's get to the judge. thank you so much. welcome to the "halftime report." the investment committee sizing this all up today. joining me, joe terranova, and anastasia. joe, we are coming off the best week since november. doesn't really feel like it, though, does it? you feel like sentiment has turned once again bullish? >> i am not so sure.

>> no. absolutely not i think a lot of is because of the decline we had earlier in the month, down 5% i think it was healthy i think it's all about earnings. look, so far earnings are growing at 4.7%. that's not really statistically dramatically above what the consensus was at somewhere around 3.6, 3.7. it doesn't feel that way i think this week is a big week just in terms of can amazon -- >> yep >> and i think it's really amazon, can amazon extend the momentum from last week that was delivered from alphabet and meta >> can apple stop the momentum schneid. anastasia, the fed meeting, and maybe the risk is the fed chair giving the most recent inflation

reads, and that read was better than the most recent cpis, and so what do you think >> i think it will be really hard for fed chair powell to send hawkish given what he said a couple weeks ago, and the 2-year -- it has priced out but one cut for the remainder of the year, and it's 125 basis points priced in to the next five years, and the market is where the fed wants it to be and i think it would be hard for the fed to say something that will upset the apple cart here. >> it will be interesting what powell says on wednesday we will be following that. a lot of the commentary, to my point to joe, yes we are coming off the best week for stocks since november, doesn't really feel like it, and doesn't feel

like the tide has turned back to being in the bull's favor, if it has on it doesn't sound like it, and they are continuing to look at the technicals and raises these flags. let's be honest. the technician since the october bottom have been run over by the bull train he says the s&p 500 into resistance now the road gets tougher. rbg says it has not gotten hit hard enough, and i don't need to give you the reasons why they are concerned but it's obvious, where inflation has been mostly of late, and the gdp read and on and on >> i think the positives and negatives are in balance right now. what if i said we are at fair price? think about the positives. let's go to the fed, and you were talking about this a second ago, scott, and you will probably walk back rate cuts further into the future and at the same time there will be talk

about kquantitative tightening easing, and we have good labor markets and that's good, and consumer delinquency is creeping up and that's a negative, but they are in balance. there's a tension between the two, which you are noting, scott. but things are probably right where they should be, barring new news that could be positive or negative. >> you say that, but there are knows that would suggest the multiple of the market is not where it should be >> okay. >> that it's over valued relative to where rates are, where growth may be going, and what the path for the fed is now likely to be >> yeah. >> you are suggestive of a bullish scenario, and you are at what somebody suggested as a elevated multiple, and how do you back that up >> glad you brought this up. rattling around in my head is the fact that our year-end target is 5100 on the s&p 500.

you don't hear me coming out and saying we are going to raise our target i think you hear the bullishness in my tone al tee, and they tend not to be technology, and i am not saying go sell those stocks, i am saying they may be fairly priced under the hood, a lot trading around ten times earnings and maybe a little premium to book, and industrials, materials and energy, i still see a lot of value there. >> okay. i have been highlighting his notes which come around once a week at the end of the week. he has been consistently bullish. i would suggest, you know, more bullish than others, and he's been correct he's also told you where to keep your eye on the ball that has been his saying for the last many, many months in terms of large cap and specifically tech he says today, and i feel like there's a modest tone change

from tony. i expect the s&p will continue to shop around in the next phase of the game and the best money will be made at the single stock sector levels -- that sounds consistent however, listen to this. there are times to go for the brake and there are times to go for the gas. superficially, people should be tapping the brakes while macro people should be pressing the gas. he doesn't love the technical setup now. i am not going to suggest he's bearish because he's not and i don't want to misstate the tone of his note, but he says the backdrop could be more complicated? >> i could agree with that sentiment, because i do like the growth backdrop and the earnings backdrop and i think stocks can still do fine without the rate cuts, but there's an uncomfortable feeling that inflation is not decelerating as fast as it used to if you look at the core pce number that came in right in

line with expectations, and if you look under the hood the service is excludeing housing and stagnated and even picked up a little bit, and the three month core pce, it's outpacing the six-month, and there's a feeling at what point does the fed say we don't have the confidence and we may have to restore it by ie, hiking rates then to the tbg now kul backdrop, it has corrected scott, we talked about it the beginning of last week, and you had oversold technicals that now reversed, but the net length we talked about last week is still there. >> you want to dissect this tony note let's be clear he's head of hedge fund client coverage at goldman sachs. in other words, he talks to everybody that matters, okay if he says that now is the time

to go tap the brakes for equity people, what do you think that means in the greater context >> i think there's one word that stands out to me and that's "chop. that's what we could be in for here ten days ago i thought we were bottoming, we were bottoming from a process of a healthy correction that i think worked off positioning than anything else a real overbought positioning and sentiment. i think as you look forward now over the next several months, you have got strong gains so far year to date, not just in equities but equities beyond the u.s. i think you are going to see money managers be risk averse. i think risk averse is probably the right disposition to have over the next several months because you are waiting on so much you are waiting to see if you could have the sustainability of earnings as we have had in recent quarters. you are waiting on the federal

reserve and on the u.s. presidential election. you are waiting to see if recent data related to the economy is going to weaken further. i think the right way to look at the market is from the perspective of, yes, we want to be risk adverse, and we will find opportunities here and there in single stocks, and i keep talking about goldman sachs, and merck is working right now. if you are a macro trader, probably the next couple of months will be favorable for you because the market will move in that direction >> okay. now, with all due respect to tony at goldman sachs, there was a note from adam parker, enough so that i was like you have to come on and talk about this because this is a bit of a change i want my viewers to know about. adam joins us now. it's good to have you back >> good to see you >> you have made a bit of a pivot, if i can call it that

i want to read the headline that i took from your note and we ask discuss. our recommendation had been that the bull case was far more probable than the bear case, driving our judgment that there was an upside to the s&p 500, but now our view has changed that got my attention. why has it changed >> the three pillars to the bull case were easing financial conditions and growth margins expanding and the belief that earnings would grow, and there were a tightening set of conditions and a china recovery. we try to mark to market our views, and i have no idea right now if the net 10% moves up or down, and so i think the way jim framed it makes sense to me, 50/50 we move in either

direction. why? one, the stagflation, like i wrote in my notes, if stagflation were a stock it would be up, we could get cyclical pressure on inflation a little bit two, the consumer is definitely slowing, and you can see that through some of the corporate earnings and macro variables third, we scoured every word of every earnings called transcript year to date for any mention of china, china growth, china demand and china initiatives and it has not picked up if i look at stuff in the health care tools or others, i am not seeing evidence of that. investors i talk to, probably the same crowd or a lot of the same crowd that tony at goldman talks to, if people are expecting china to get better and it doesn't, that changes -- >> it's not like all that much has changed. maybe the stagflation as of late

is a difference, but you have been telling me one of the reasons you have been more bullish than most is because of margins, and that's the greatest takeaway, margins would stay strong, and therefore justifying the multiple and are you suggesting that could be changing as well >> well, structural reasons are still in place, and artificial intelligence, that's happening, but the cyclical part, that could be different the commodity index was up 8 or 9% off of the lows, and there could be a less tailwind than first thought. i could see somebody tweaking their cyclical -- i mean, the correlation between forecasted margins and cpi is high for all but the mega cap companies

market to market, i feel less good about cyclical benefits to gross margins in a six month view >> you say we are not here yet, but what gets us to that point >> i was just kind of saying, look, if stagflation, if it were stock, you just said it, if that stock is beating more than their every day vernacular, that's an ugly word. is there a chance we get a cyclical uptick in inflation maybe. i don't think we are there yet it's something if i assigned a zero probability to nine months ago, it's 20% or something and it's not zero and i have to watch that cocktail because that's a cocktail with a hangover >> some would say no matter

what, look at pce, listen to the fed, just because they are pushing off or out doesn't mean they are pushing away, and we still expect the next move from the fed to be a cut, correct >> i think so. i am -- i like frame works and i could understand how deviations can cause change i don't know what their framework is, to be honest with you. i know that the people who follow them carefully have not been successful at forecasting their movements. i can't really impreg nate that into the view, and on the margin, i feel less good about it than i did at the beginning of the year, and i am trying to be honest, tracking stagflation and the consumer and china,

those look worse under the hood i think there are a ton of opportunities i think exsuperson is widening, and there's lots to do under the hood, but at the market level, it's more balanced >> i will ask one more question before i open it up to the group here under the hood you also suggest that the -- i guess we could say the engine of this market might be changing in terms of what you like best. now, you were telling me and our viewers, you know, you are a regular on "closing bell," and you were suggesting buy energy, we like energy before a lot of other people liked energy. now energy had this run. you had always been with me as well saying you want to be overweight tech, right even in a marketplace where tech is such a sizeable part, you want to be overweight in that, and that's changing, too, and you say we recommend those overweight in technology, they

reduce their exposure and i don't need to be a rocket scientist to say he wants me to be more defensive in health care and utilities -- >> yeah, what you are reference something what is the historical stagflation playbook, and if you believe stagflation grows more, the two energy sectors were tech and -- if that starts gaining traction from here, that's where you will be light. when i look at the sector recommendations, we have 28% of the vet in tech with tons of semis and the mag 7, and you still have to have that if you are going to be with the s&p i still like those sectors, but i think you have to start trimming a couple percent and adding to health care and

utilities if you believe stagflation growth it's alerting people in advance about what the stagflation playbook would look like if it starts to gain traction. >> it's joe. drill down on that as it deals with semiconductors and the ai halo >> may 22nd, that's the day you don't make any plans that's when -- >> nvidia. >> yeah, that's when nvidia reports. i think the news is likely to be good, but everybody else thinks that, too. obviously if i knew when they were going to tell us they were close to meeting demand or three months away from meeting demand, i would expect some selloff. a few months back, i think you saw the nvidia god trade, and you are not god and you can't play god, and most of the companies are hyper focus on how

to implement that and deploy it, and i like that part a lot i suspect this would be an overweight recommendation for a long time. the guys that trade semis and the old kind of mafia i hang out with, it's time to rotate into the semis, and you saw back and forthwith negotiation, i guess, and ultimately i think comp will grow well and you want somebody with exposure managing your money with that theme. >> what a good panel i like the whole crew today. >> thank you see you soon guys, i want to get to the apple news today that i referenced at the top that we would talk about it's a significant moment of what is happening with this name toni at bernstein, he upgraded apple. so an analyst upgrades apple, and you are like, duh.

except for the fact it was six years ago that he last had a buy or outperform on this stock, and he downgraded it six years ago on february 2nd of 2018. now he reiterates the price target of 195, and he says apple's prevailing weakness in china is more cyclical than structural, and it's a seasonally strong trading period, and apple is less expensive than it appears. take this. >> interesting i have always advocating that fundamentally this is the one company that just when you think you are seeing an inflexion point in the fundamentals they prove you wrong, and they either prove you wrong through their balance sheet, whether it's the dividend or buyback or something embedded in what is a remarkable

customer base, and the resiliency that is reflected there in its products with the earnings i can't come on air, okay, with a rebalance occurring tomorrow for the etf and not acknowledge there has been a dramatic deterioration just purely looking at price and momentum. the stock is up 2.8% in the last few weeks. if i am guided by two matrix, the fundamentals and the technicals, it really comes down to weighing each of those in the near term, to me, the technicals don't look good and fundamentals over the long-term always tend to prove out and win out with apple. if you are more tactical in your nature, then you are going to look and lean towards the technicals if you are more of a long, long-term investors, you will look towards the fundamentals and the fundamentals, you can't bet against them

>> lousy calendar for you, right? >> sure is >> good luck >> remember, the stock was 165 and now it's 175 the fact that sag tphaugy upgraded the stock today, it's a 3% move so it's a strong day, jim. >> i think the tesla news is flowing through to apple what is the achilles' heel for apple right now, it's china, and tesla making good inroads with china. mad respect for toni i think we all have that i disagree as a portfolio manager, i won't step in front -- >> you disagree with the upgrade? >> i disagree with the timing of the upgrade. specifically, what he's saying is buy the fear. toni, if i got that wrong, sorry -- >> he didn't say buy before the earnings report, and he said there was a lot of fear in the stock both for fundamental and

technical reasons. >> i am being a critical reader, and that's what i am reading into it. if i am wrong, i am wrong. >> you are reading in between the lines. >> i will not do it in front of earnings because it seems to me the more likely scenario, i buy here and bad news comes out in china and the stock goes down. i wouldn't spike the football in toni's face if i am right, and i don't think he would spike the football in my face if i am wrong. i think, joe, long-term investors want to add at the level, and i can't bring myself to do it -- >> maybe the most important part of his note is where it relates to china where it says cyclical and not structural >> yes >> yes >> market share, and huawei and things like that, they still get, what, 17%, 20%, maybe a

little less of the revenues from china. >> i think you hit the nail on the head this is the debate is it structural or cyclical on friday i would say it's secular, and china does not want its citizens buying apple phones >> we will get to that when you finish your sentence >> this is a positive sign for businesses doing business in china. >> speaking of china and tesla, you see the pictures of musk, right? >> right >> musk is over there. the stock is up today, a lot, as you see there. those are highs of the day for tesla shares, and back almost at 200 bucks. that's after getting closer to, they say, self driving in china. by the way, adam jonas, he put out a note a few minutes ago, and patty martell sent it to me,

and it says he's back. shareholders have been worrying, and jonas says it in his note today, is he really all in he has x and all this other stuff? nope, him being over in china, that means he's all in >> yes, and everything is rules-based. has it done enough to restore itself in terms of momentum probably not you have to ask yourself the question, what do these individual stocks do for my portfolio over the next few months if toni and adam parker are correct, if you want to be defensively oriented, appear sl a great stock for you because apple in its nature is defensively oriented

is tesla i am not so sure the answer to that is yes. while the headlines are bringing the stock higher, i will reiterate what i said last week when we had the conversation with jim weiss and bryn, i wouldn't be short with tesla i am not sure you would get the tesla you had in 2021. >> there's another statement of sort of betting against the stock, and don't over stay your welcome is how i phrased it last week if you want to be negative, fine we will take a break we have trades on uber, lulu and ulta we're back in two.

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leisure. do they think the pandemic pump in that area is over >> potentially let's look at that in terms of revenue growth, and over the last year it's doing 18% you have a moderation in the revenue growth for sure. the stock is up 106% over the last five years. >> yeah, and it's down 30% year to date. >> you got to where i was going. over the last three years, it's up 8%. it's down year to date as you cited, and over the last 12 months it's down 5%. clearly you could call into question, is this a maturing company, and i understand what barclays is doing? >> rebalance is coming we shall see what happens on that front i feel like i need to remind people of that >> i thought we would escape that >> we're not

>> because you are here. >> you could debate the quality metric that you have, and we will do that after you rebalance and see where we land, as we will with ulta, which was downgraded too at barclays 434 from 612 competition heating up from brick and mortar >> yeah, there's synergy in the exact content of each of the notes from barclay facing these two consumer companies let's start with revenue where are we over the last three years? 22% for ulta over the last year, only looking at 6%. you are seeing the deterioration there in terms of the revenue growth and seeing deterioration in terms of price, and the stock over the last three years up 23%, again, a degree of maturity is being called into question. i understand what barclays is

doing, and tomorrow on the close we will figure that out. >> i didn't even bring that up again. uber, i find one of the funniest lines in our google dock today is by way of jim lebenthal we are doing research on uber? what kind of research are you doing on uber? let me help you out. year to date the stock is up 10%, and the company is profitable a lot of love for it what kind of proprietary research you got >> we can all see that it's doing great as a company you know, look, this comes under the heading of looking for an entry point, scott little downtrend here and don't want to wait too long. everybody loves it and loves it for a reason >> did the robo taxi sell off

give you the opportunity >> tesla or uber >> from tesla. >> when they announced the robo taxi -- i am glad you brought it up because it pertains more than tesla, and it's a huge canard in many regards many companies have been trying for the robo taxi, and google and gm, and it ain't easy, folks. and tesla, elon musk says it and the stocks goes up >> that's why you buy the selloff with uber. >> you know i am kidding with you. >> that's fine >> what more to the story do you need to know pgs if you are looking to be bullish -- >> as i said, there's a reason why we are looking at that and a reason why everybody loves it and it's doing quite well, and when do you buy it what is it up this year?

>> 10% i am not advocating for you to buy the stock or not i thought it was funny you are doing research on it >> i have a team of analysts and they research and i make the decisions of whether to buy or sell >> 7 billion share buyback last year the company is really in a position that is unique relative to the rest of its peers >> not going to argue. >> you have drones going around -- >> i hope i am being clear, the stock had a marvelous run, 10% to date. >> i think he's going to various points and calling ubers -- >> yeah, how long it takes >> you can look at realtime data -- >> how many lyft placards do i see or uber -- >> let's get to the headlines.

>> nato members failed to deliver on promises of military aid in recent months but said the flow of weapons and ammunition will increase, and u.s. regulators, in the meantime, are investigating ford's hands free driving system following recent crashes that killed three people. the national highway traffic safety said there's a system called bluecruise engaged. ford telling forbes it's working with investigators to support the investigation. students at columbia got an ult ultimatum from the school today, leave or face suspension students would not be punished for their participation if they signed a form promising not to

break any more rules until the end of the next academic year. that's the latest. back to you. tnk you appreciate it. protecting your portfolio. new funds designed to defend against a downturn that's up next in "eft edge. we're back after this.

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let's get to bob with today's eft edge >> a larger cohort of older investors created demand for investors to stay invested there will be a product launched that seeks to return the s&p up to a cap and provide 100% protection on the down side. how will they pull this off? let's talk to the guy doing this matt, you are launching this structured protection for the s&p this wednesday, and how are you accomplishing this down side >> they are designed to deliver 100% down side protection over a one-year outcome period, but

then the upside relative to a market, the s&p 500 launching this wednesday, ticker cps m, and in june we have another one on the nasdaq 100, and we are on file for the russell 2000 set to launch >> how do they work? >> they are customized to expire on the same day, one year from now, that can deliver the upside, again, to a cap, and there's no free lunch here, so a cap of 9.65% is what we are seeing now, with 100% protection -- >> do you have calls that enable you to have this down side, right? >> that's right. >> whoever is purchasing the eft has to understand there's a specific day that you should buy and sell on otherwise the whole proposition becomes dicey, and explain why that is important? >> most capital protected

products outside of the eft they are designed to be delivered over an outcome period, so day one, you will get close to the 100% protection, and there's opportunity to get in along the way, too >> we have been talking about this on eft edge for over a year, and they try to provide some down side protection while staying in the market, and we are talking about jpmorgan's skwrepy, and you have buffered products that have protection, and who are you selling these to and who is buying them >> these do not use equity-linked notes, and these are all options, and if you look at lower rate environments, that's when the buffer etfs did

well, and they worked great, and now we can deliver capital protection over an outcome period >> older people like me that want to stay in the market but want protection, that's the natural buyer of these products, right? >> one of the buyers retirees need to provide for themselves, and it's a great opportunity. >> you mentioned you have other products coming up soon. i want to go into that on eft edge there's a whole suite of them coming up. that's at 1:10 eastern time. scott, back to you >> bob, appreciate that. we have the setup on a few key names reporting in the next 24 hours we're back after this.

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♪ ♪ it's time for the setup on key earnings tr transocean, and that's today after the bell you own that >> yeah, i like the setup here i am interested in the commentary about how tight this market is for deep water drilling rigs. about a month ago we got news that one of the rigs was contracted at $500,000 a day, which is a very high rate. if that continues you would like to hear the ceo say some of the 11 cold stacked rigs, that some of them would be reactivated i think that's a matter of when and not if we want to hear commentary on it >> what about nxp, which is also

today after the bell i will give joe another break because of the rebalance, but you own this, too? >> yeah, it's not a slam dunk. i think there's potential bad news baked in here what is that we know the electric vehicle is soft right now, and we know there are more chips in those vehicles, and it's a question of what is that trade off do they have enough pick up in the combustion engine business i think looking at the revisions of earnings, there's -- >> what did texas instruments tell us last week about the demand, so be careful extrapolating too much negativity >> well, the electric vehicles

to artificial intelligence to data centers, all of them function only because of chips when i look at the industry revenues today, which is half a trillion dollars, it's likely to go to a trillion dollars by 2030 it's a massive mega trend. i look through any sort of pullbacks and i want to buy that, and to go to jim's point, the reason i like semis right now, is because there's a cyclical story we piled up a bunch of semiconductor inventory, and we're slowly but surely working those inventories down the demand for chips is correlated with the manufacturing industries, and we get those numbers this week, and if they can continue to support the uptick story, which i think they will, that's good for chips. we are at the highs of the day for stocks right now the dow is up 124.

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[thunder rumbles] ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ welcome back our senior markets commentator mike santoli is at post 9 for his mid tday word new week, earnings, fed, what's on your mind >> that was the key thing. after three straight down and you had a little bit of an oversold makings of the bounce, you got the bounce it responded to that you have to also throw, i think -- obviously, we have a lot of big earnings to come, but you got through enough where the current forward estimates look like they are substantiated at this point so i think all of that is pretty good tactically, the market is trying to fight its way back into the

early april range. that's where we sit right now. you're playing around with the s&p 500 with the 50-day average. it's fair to say you've kind of set this bit of a trading range floor if nothing else. i think the question is can you make your peace with where rates are, what the fed's going to say? historically, 4.5% yield is not kryptonite for stocks. inflation near 3% is fine for stocks and the economy in the right conditions the question is can we start the right valuation in all that mix to get there and also have some kind of faith of where we're headed as opposed to getting hyped. the inverted yield curve is still the market's way of saying the next move should be down and depending on the probability of where they lie it should be relatively soon, but we'll see >> that's probably why and we highlighted this at the top of the program today. why there are many who are still afraid to say all clear. and the majority of the notes today are still cautious,

negative sell-off still coming. >> yeah. i don't think that a 3% bounce off a low is going to be enough. that seems fine. i think people have last summer's experience fresh in mind where you have the exact same 5% pullback in august and you have a bounce in the 50-day. they basically failed. >> they're worried that you'll have a replay of last summer you have a lot of things you don't have that you do have now in an economy to pivot >> good stuff. hall see you on the bell >> tt's mike santoli, senior markets commentator. we'll do final trades next

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(torstein hagen) in my simple world, can help you leave a legacy there are only three things that matter in human beings. first, they have to be kind. kind. second, they have to be honest. and third, they have to be hard-working. it's very simple. wherever you are in the world, when you come to a different culture, you meet people of very different backgrounds, but you find out that they have the same ambitions and the same fears just like yourself. i'm so sure that travel is good for the world.

it's really the best to engage with the locals and the destination. and i think travel helps broaden the human mind and makes us kinder. and that's fantastically valuable. i'll take you through the final stretch of trading today with dan greenhouse, jan saccocia and you'll want to catch that at 3:00 what's your final trade for us today? >> consumer diskregary etf i've seen real time data tell us that consumer spending is picking up and they're spinning on services, travel, and e-commerce. >> have you seen the tsa numbers? pass-through numbers >> i imagine they are. >> ask jim they'll tell you about it.

>> delta air lines, i got filibustered on friday i was going to do it now, but here we go now, delta. beautiful chart, by the way. the fundamentals look great. >> good stuff, joe >> filibustered over me. i've been long j.p. morgan since 2023 and there's another 20% still in the stock. >> thank you for that. i'll see you on "the closing bell," "the exchange" starts right now. >> welcome to "the exchange" i'm john fortt in for kelly evans. our market guest says don't fear high rates, embrace them he'll tell us what he's buying against this backdrop and one name that's out of character for him and musk makes a surprise visit to china as tesla clears a major hurdle in the market is this the catalyst that can have the beaten down easy maker and this offers a unique way to have the gop diet drug craz