indicated up by about 75 s&p futures, up by 14, nasdaq up by close to 80 treasury markets have been sort of the same with yields. ten-year is 4.63%. of course, we do have that fed meeting coming this week, and that could change things folks, that does it for us today. make sure you join us right back here tomorrow. right now, it's time for "squawk on the street. ♪ good monday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer, david faber at post nine of the new york stock exchange coming off the best week and futures are solid ahead of a very busy few days apple and amazon earnings, a fed decision, a jobs number, ten-year, 4.63%. our road map begins with musk's surprise visit to china. tesla passing some key hurdles in that country, giving that stock a big surge in the premarket. plus, we will have the latest on those deal talks around paramount as well, the potential departure of the

company's ceo as it also gets ready to report after the bell speaking of earnings, it is the busiest week of quarterly results, nearly one-third of the s&p 500 and 20% of the dow are reporting. f apple and amazon lead the way this week. let's begin with tesla, rallying in the premarket today, following musk's visit to china. the company, winning approval to roll out its full self-driving technology in that country, jim. this is a partnership with baidu, being called a watershed moment for fsd >> you need to have -- i remember when i rode in a waymo, which is google's product, you had to have the google map you just need this infrastructure in order to be able to make it. it was obviously being withheld. is it worth 22 points? i think that people were short tesla, betting there had to be more -- let's say, more earnings problems i mean, there's an evercore piece, lowering price target, that was probably pre-china. but david, there is a sense

among the companies that make self-driving that there's this holy grail robo taxi plan out there. forgetting the fact, i think, in this case, that teslas are expensive. more expensive than the regular car. >> a regular car you mean -- well, yeah i mean, at the same time that, urngs you're reading about and hearing about musk's visit and the okay from moving full self-driving, at least, into the chinese market, you're also well aware that byd continues to be able to lower the price of its entry model to well below half of what tesla charges for a car in the chinese market. not to mention what that will mean in other markets outside the u.s. in terms of continued competition from those ev makers in china, who, as we pointed out so many times, have lowered price and increased quality. doesn't necessarily mean they're the equivalent of a tesla, but the price differential is pretty

significant. what you're reminded of here, though, guys, is that you thought it was safe to short tesla, finally, and then it isn't. >> i was going to say that, but i feel like you -- i would never admit that people are shorting tesla, because it is just -- it's a widow-maker trade >> you would have thought that, except that you would have been up -- you were down 40% only a week ago before the earnings print. >> look, we didn't know he was going to go to china and get this carl, i think that the bulls are saying that he's back in most favored nation status. i will come back and say that's absolutely true, but why would you buy this instead of a byd? david says the quality may be more status symbol, but if it's a robo taxi, who cares i mean, it's about utility it's not about how good it looks. do we care how good a -- when you take an uber, some people want to take a black car, but for the most part, you take what you can get. >> do you think china has the potential to be the tip of the spear around the world on full self-driving >> no, because it's just -- i

think self-drive, as david often mentions, if someone dies in a self-drive, it's considered to be a story if someone dies in a crash, it's not a story. >> yeah. it's a strange comparison we continue to make sure. there's stories today about ford's self-driving -- the service transportation board and the investigations that they'll do, and yet, tens of thousands of people still die every year >> right >> behind the wheel. >> yeah, because of drunk driving. get rid of drunk driving >> and texting >> yeah, and texting >> don't forget that or watching television forget texting when you see people fully engaged with their phone with, i mean, watching a movie all the time >> no, that's why i want self-driving now, i always gauge it these days by looking at the price of fcx. you need more copper when you buy tesla, and fcx has been telling the truth. fcx says that more teslas are going to be soda fcx goes down, it's going to be fewer teslas

i wish there was more to it than that, but that's the algorithm if people want to understand what tesla is being valued at. watch copper first >> highest since april of 2022 today. more broadly, jim, about the market, we've mentioned best week in a six months or so nice piece out of morgan stanley today, strong aggregate earnings surprises, up 9%, best in about three years. >> that was very positive piece. i would say, cost is a little bit more, 10%, by saying it's really the companies with the highest quality growth that are going up of course, the highest quality growth is the megacaps so, the broader range of the morgan stanley could trump everything david, we do have animal spirits last week that were quite impressive you report google, and google goes up, and then it goes up, and then it goes up. i mean, has like three ways to go up. >> as the week ended, of course, on the strength of both alphabet and microsoft's earnings, you think that was animal spirits there? >> well, i did think it.

now i wonder whether something's going to give back if apple really is going to have a tie-up with chat and not google, as "the new york times" and -- well, actually, the whole thing started with bloomberg reporting there was going to be a tie-up remember >> do. i do remember that >> apple was up. >> i know. those kinds of stories were always hard. these things are dynamic, and you -- >> because they're sourced >> i don't know why. just -- it's always hard to know -- >> that was a softball you were supposed to say, jim, they're not sourced. remember, there's no penalty if you screw up >> on apple, it's always hard. >> apple is impossible >> they're just very difficult >> i never know what they're going to do. >> this is the upgrade from tony today. goes to outperform stock's been derated the premium is low by history. china weakness is cyclical, not structural and more a.i. could be a tailwind >> i know. i mean, but i saw -- i was going

over -- you know what i'm going to say >> i do. >> well, how do you call a top in apple what's the way you call a top in apple? you have a guy who's not even going to identify as being the biggest bear but is the biggest bear, switch correcdirection ano positive i hope that's not the case because my travel trust owns it. we say, own it, don't trade it, but we were upset to see him join it ahead of the quarter as if somehow even when you read him, he doesn't say this quarter is a breakout. but to have him on board has a bad feeling but that's like having -- when "sports illustrated" existed, it was like having -- >> the curse >> the curse of "sports illustrated. web that remember that? which one went away? >> the curse or "sports illustrated" "sports illustrated" is kind of no longer. >> since they bought the street, i managed to throw in a reference. >> you can remember a long, long

time ago >> it came out friday. >> reading it cover to cover >> i always checked faces in the crowd for david's kid. 95-mile-an-hour softball >> that was, you know, that was -- >> i'm joking. >> great journalism. that's a long time ago, jim. >> it is, because -- all right but jamie salter, a very smart guy, and he has the intellectual property i love that guy, but i will say that what's happened, carl, is when i raead it, i feel there'sa jinx, and what time is he booked >> tony? >> the 9:00, the 7:00, the 15th? >> amazon reports later in the week >> we're breaking up the shark st tank for him >> is there a possibility they're going to institute a dividend, jim? there's a rumor -- apparently, there was a bloomberg page that had an ex-dividend date and people were like, what's going on here? >> if they add a dividend, it's going to go up because that's what people want

when you talk to people behind alphabet, they say, you wanted a dividend, you wanted transparency, we gave you everything you need, and it worked it was an amazing call the alphabet call actually talked about -- >> that's another reason we have this conversation, why it's rumored to have traction, a very small dividend but nonetheless, first time >> it's going to give back -- it was incredible to find out how they make money, because they make money in everything it was much more bullish than i thought. when i went through alphabet's quarter, when i parsed it, so to speak, i saw they make money in -- they're even losing money in these other bets. i bet you they bring back other bets and just make another line item other bets was an excuse to lose money. and i don't think they're going to tolerate that anymore i think they have a new intolerance toward loss of money. i wish they would talk about fitbit as the analog for what we should have done a little romonstration

>> the reaction to these upside prices has been muted. they think the street is being discerning on operation, discipline, expense-wise >> i think, look, i think he's represents now main street that's true. and good and good >> who represents main street? what wilson >> wilson's come around. >> price on wilson mike wilson we're talking about here morgan stanley >> dennis the menace and wilson. >> sometimes it's hard to keep up >> if you would focus on what we're doing, it wouldn't be, instead of focusing on tiny sky skydancer. >> i got so much on that >> wilson's represented mainstream saganaki is the curse of apple where are the guys who you counted on to be negative? where are the bears? where's jelly stone national park hey, boo-boo-l >> let's go get some picnic baskets. >> we could do the whole show in

hanna barbera. >> does zaslav have the rights who has the rights to tiny skydancer? >> paramount did do the movie. >> that's true david has it covered >> we're going to get to it after the break. >> we're going to get to that. >> we have a report from domino's this morning. >> what else >> who has good quarters we have another slash and burn of charter >> yeah. >> they underperformed on every single lineup except for the ability to produce something >> that stock is down 35%. >> so far, everybody loves, but every time he has to use equity, it's positive, but when you issue a convert, anthony should know, you can short against a convert until the cows come home i got two cows >> we are going to talk to him in the next hour decent guidance. >> i got two cows. >> are they new? >> i just got them >> did you mail order? how do you get a cow these days,

jim? on amazon? >> you get them from omaha steak. oh no, we got to go? >> are they dairy cows >> no, they're, you know, they're a little older >> oh. that's very sweet. >> look at these two lucy and massy they told me to call it macy, but macy's is in a battle. >> we got to get it on tv to show people. those are two beautiful cows >> they're beautiful you can't do anything with them other than feed them they love doughnuts. >> we will get to cramer's cows, get to paramount, sofi, calls on lulu, at&t, southwest. take a look at the premarket at morgan stanley, old school hard work meets bold new thinking. to help you see untapped possibilities and relentlessly work with you to make them real.

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♪ all right, let's talk some paramount, shall we? going through my endless number of notes here, much of which is

not -- the reporting of which has not made air, but this morning, instead of going through the -- we've already been through sort of the substance of the ellison skydance offer in terms of how it would potentially work, but let me bring you up to date on what i know, having spoken to any people i know, people on the special committee side, company side, on the ellison group side. and there you take a look at paramount shares, which are up by the way, waiting for the stepping down of bob bakish, the ceo. not going to happen this morning, but very much anticipated after the close. i believe the company also reporting after the close. so, we're waiting for that as for the process under which this company may have a change in control, that is certainly a focus for many shareholders who have been less than enthused with the idea of control shareholder shari redstone through national amusements getting a large share for her

shares, while they got nothing, except the promise of a higher stock price based on the merger. what i can tell you is they have moved along here in terms of this exclusive negotiation that's been going on between the special committee and the ellison group to the point where it is my understanding, at least, that they've gotten to basically kind of what they would call a -- expect to be a final offer from skydance. now, things can always change. you can also tweak things. it doesn't appear they're going to have a deal in hand on friday, but perhaps they will get very close to having something that is close to that deal that could be signed up, brought to the control shareholder, namely that being shari redstone it does include, is my understanding, and this is an important component here and one that the special committee has been pushing for, what is essentially a premium that would be paid at least to these shareholders for some percentage of their shares, meaning, yes, you merge in skydance through

buying skydance at roughly a $5 billion value, then, as i have been reporting for weeks now, there would be a large issuance of stock, primary shares from the company that would be bought by larry ellison, by red bird, by kkr, which also owns part of skydance right now and potentially some other investors but would also be bought at a premium is some percentage of beholders ownings. i can't imagine it's a large percent. i don't know what the number is. would it be 10%? who knows? but that is apparently part of what is essentially sort of the offer that they have made to try to meet the objections of or at least the worries of the special committee that feels like, hey, we have to offer some form of liquidity to the b-holders so they feel like they've gotten something out of this, other than the merits of the transaction themselves, which, again, as i've reported in the past, include delevering, include what they believe would be a significant amount of cost

savings to the tune of at least a billion, perhaps $2 billion, and to the prospect of having larry ellison as your essentially controlling shareholder in many ways, which wouldn't be a bad thing. certainly has very deep pockets. all of that, of course, is something the special committee, jim, has to figure out as they weigh whether to sign this up, whether to see if they can get something out of apollo and sony that's real. yes, i hear sony would love to be there in some fashion, would love to own the studio as so many others would. nothing has come in yet. even though there's exclusivity, nothing stops sony from sending in detail other than what i'm hearing about apollo and sony, sony would be the owner, they'd throw legendary in, which is controlled by apollo, but all of these things have a lot of regulatory risk. sony does, and by the way, i brought up the idea of the japanese, whether they would be there for sony usa in the end.

but regulatory-wise, it's like -- i mean, apollo owns stations really, you're just buying the studio there asset sales are a huge part of that transaction nothing has been sent into the special committee of any level of granularity, let alone at all from sony and then if you are the ellison group, jim, you've got an fcc review, it's going to take some time you've committed to a deal in which you're buying stock at a premium, by the way, over the current price. you're going to sit out there for nine months while your capital is at risk, as the cash flow goes down, as you're dealing with an overlevered company that has wyet to do that character agreement with charter, which could end up in not a good place >> fabulous reporting. i listen to you, and i think, okay, you mention larry ellison. so, let's say amazon were to try to buy paramount no justice department would say, no way. apple, no way. let's say alphabet wanted to buy

it >> no way. >> how about the fourth guy who has the best network with the best technology and data analytics, which is what the wall "wall street journal" says you need how about oracle but not really we make it larry ellison skydance has $90 million in revenue. which is better, djt or skydance this is a back door way for a great american company to own a -- >> this would be a different approach for him, but you would know they would be there you know there would be technology at the root of so much of what they're doing, and that's certainly the prospect that at least the ellison group is trying to present to the special committee, but it's very difficult for them they got to look at, all right, status quo, which, by the way, this company is potentially going to be run by a committee starting tomorrow, paramount ellison deal or if you could really nail something down, it's a big premium from apollo and sony, and deal with the

regulatory risk, then maybe you sign that up >> a lot of members of simon and g garfunkel said, no man is an island but larry ellison owns an island in hawaii. this would be chump change for him. they would be able to use the data analytics, which are really fabulous, by the way, and i don't know about sony, but if it's sony america, do they have any money? >> no. they've got the japanese, which i pointed out, would have to sign on. my understanding is, at this point, they are supportive, but it always comes down to when you have to write the check. >> as you wait for this deal to get done, is the cash flow not going over >> it's probably going to lower. >> it's in the content business. it's protected >> not to mention, there's real questions about an nfl deal and whether that would be something they would be willing to sign up with apollo. >> got to go around the nfl deal >> nfl is a key part of their program. >> what about champions league how about, hey, david, the masters? >> a tradition like no other

yeah >> how about jalen remember how poorly he did for villanova and then comes to your team and looks great >> jalen brunson is amazing. i'm aware of who he played for >> i'm talking about march madness. i'm throwing that in too >> we got to go. >> we'll see what happens with paramount tonight, if not before cramer's "mad dash" and the opening bell, coming up in a couple of minutes.

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some of the s&p gainers all pivoting around news we covered tesla and paramount jim mentioned dpz with the beat. u.s. comps up almost six, looking for four opening bell is coming up in stbo fr nus.ju autoumite don't go anywhere.

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>> announcer: the opening bell is brought to you by nuveen, a leader in income, alternatives, and responsible investing. all right, let's get to a quick "mad dash" here. southwest airlines -- well, there are the cows >> oh, okay. there's lucy and macy. >> lucy and macy, the new additions to the cramer family >> yes not jensen and huang that's not what i named them, as much as i love them. >> they're beautiful now we're really running out of time we'll get to southwest on the other side of the bell, because we don't have enough time. >> cows learn at least one, which is, "run."

once you name them, you can't eat them >> we got to do the bell >> southwest air really >> look. look what time it is >> oh, okay. >> let's get this bell and the cnbc realtime exchange at the big board, it's dwl, celebration of the company's ipo. at the nasdaq, churchill downs, parent company of the kentucky derby coming up this weekend, jim. >> always has good numbers anyone who's ever been there knows the pageantry is great it's fantastic >> all right, so you are going to get to this call on southwest. >> yeah. okay, we had -- it's very tough. this piece is really brutal that says that because -- apparently bloomberg says it's going to sell some bonds -- because of boeing and some other operational issues, they downgrade to sell, throwing the baby out with the bathwater and they say the dividend is in trouble. the dividend has been a big help

there. so, i just feel it's a job-like year for them. i don't know what you can do a lot of this is not their fault. it's boeing's fault. but bob's got -- he's in a jam, and he came on last week i think he's very straightforward, but the jam is real they have to cut back some roots. i don't know it's too early >> having to cut some roots to select cities, which is going to weigh on capacity, which might weigh on airfares as we watch that contribution to cpi >> yeah. well, we need that we need that down, and that could help we got to get insurance down >> goldman did say they do see relief in car insurance. >> i know. that was good. i think one of the reasons they do that is if you've been reading some of the auto parts stories, people have not been reporting absence, because they know it will jack up their premium. i think that insurance could be under -- i think it could be under pressure then you really -- you got used cars under attack, houses under attack today by companies that buy them it's not that big, but it's

important. but if you get housed, rentals, avalon bay upgraded, price target bump, but you get car insurance down, then suddenly the fed has a little more leeway it's not bad no one's talking about that. it's too granular, but it could matter, david. >> when it comes to mega cap, guys, we talked about apple, that upgrade from bernstein, which very much worries jim. >> ouch. >> but has the stock up 2.6% and then, meta adding to the losses from last week. of course, the follow-on to what was a very poor reception in terms of at least in the stock market to those plans to spend upwards of perhaps the high-end $40 billion on capex as they continue to build out all their a.i. capabilities. not a follow-through on alphabet, which is down, or microsoft, both of which were up nicely alphabet, more so after reporting strong earnings. but amazon does get a bid, in part on this sort of, well, we'll see what the quarter looks like and is there a possibility that there would be some sort of

minor dividend added as alphabet chose to do? >> here, what is the problem with meta slowing user growth engagement with facebook, increased competition with other social media, tiktok, regulatory scrutiny, higher investments in new technology, where do i get that from the site i'm now using. that's from meta meta a.i >> oh. >> how do you like that? you want the single source of truth about meta, go to meta a.i. pretty negative. this site, which, of course, uses jensen huang, bill whitaker, there, i covered it, is really fabulous i used it for an ethereum analysis this weekend, but it's got great stuff on the meta downgrade, and i think it's very conversational, very breezy. i would put it up there with claude iii, anthropic, and congratulations. they spent a fortune, but it's really good. no one's talking about it. i'm using it now ahead of claude iii. >> interesting the stock might be reacting this

morning to some headlines about eu rules probing their use of what they're calling russian disinformation >> what an annuity stream. imagine if you're eu, you sit back, hey, let's go after oracle today on that skydance thing you know let's go after -- they try to select them. >> you think so? >> well, david, if they need money, what are they going to do, shake down european companies? you think european companies are going to give them anything? give me a break. >> they've already eliminated competition there. >> it's just that, who's due who haven't we hit lately? oh, we haven't been to amazon lately >> that's a very -- that's a very cynical view, jim >> oh, cynical >> it's a very cynical view of antitrust and of the broader regulation >> sorry yeah >> they have a different approach in europe, that is true it's not all about the consumer as well, as you know >> it's about the eu needing money. hey, maybe they'll fund ukraine with amazon's fines. >> oh, wow >> meantime, jim mentions jensen huang on "60 minutes" with bill

whitaker over the weekend, talked about the future of a.i. and the potential impact on employment take a listen. >> we're hoping that it does things to surprise us. that's the whole point in some areas like drug discovery, designing better materials that are lighter, stronger, we need artificial intelligence to help us explore the universe and places that we could have never done ourselves. ♪ >> absolutely. jensen, look, they obviously -- they presented the view, which is as it could be the data vid w that the machines could beat us. every time jensen says that, what he says s look, every time you do more, you hire more people a la all the chips that facebook bought, and they're not -- they'll be hiring >> nobody has an answer for, again, not even, all right, the robots taking over and it reaching general intelligence and deciding that we're all superfluous, but the bad actors. that one, bad actors, jim.

that's real. and when you have open source, we were just mentioning meta, llama iii, open source, when you have the ability for the bad actors to have access -- >> jensen was saying, the bad actors can do anything the huge piece on palo alto networks the bad actors go into unh if one more person knows my health care records, i'll kill them everyone knows my health care records. they call my five times a day. >> the level of destruction they can undertake as a result of access to the highest levels of generative a.i. is pretty frightening over time. >> how about what jensen's talking about in health care they have a health care division, they're going to solve so many illnesses. they are >> so, at the same time our enemies are trying to figure out, what's the best way to eliminate as many people as we can, and screw up their economy as best we can, we're going to have the -- >> by owning tiktok. and doing disinformation stop working right now america's a weak country i don't know what tiktok does. i use tiktok

>> you use everything. >> yeah, because i'm trying to be, you know, cool >> yeah. >> you saw me this weekend i was cool >> yes, you were >> i wasn't invited. >> david, you would have seen coolness >> i bet i would have seen a lot. >> you would have seen the 4:00 a.m >> i think goldman is still at $275 for friday's number >> we need $175. we have to go over 4, because then, not just because jamie wants it you have to go over four because then we can see the fed has more leeway next time we went over the components, but i fear a strong number but i also believe we're in a trend where we're getting a little bit weaker. i'm using that from transports i still believe that transpatransports are good >> that was goldman's view as well we see the next few prints being

softer, and they said even if we did get an up surprise, unlikely that a hike would be in play they would be more apt to just keep this the same >> yeah, ed yardeni had some good stuff on "squawk," saying, look at final demand, it's final. there is no stagflation. i think if you do an intelligent brae breakdown of what's been rising and hurting us, those are all weakening. i think the fed sees that. fed watches the show i know treasury does >> yes >> did you pick something up that i'm unaware of? >> yeah, that the yankees won. the mets won i don't know you seem so happy. >> everybody won the rangers won. the rangers swept the capitols >> he's not grumpy he's really happy. i'm used to grumpy >> cranky. >> or sleepy >> all all the seven dwarfs. >> i think i would to see the megacaps down and see the actual stocks up.

and we're getting that we don't want the megacaps to run away because that just -- we go back to the universe of seven stocks that are up, and everybody else is down >> is tesla considered mega cap again? >> yeah, it is >> with that move up today of 12% in the stock price >> god, david, disney's up ever since peltz has been going down, how about that disney's up. >> what about disney >> well, it's up >> yeah. >> okay. >> it hasn't been up since peltz went away. >> i know, you're still chafing at that one, still upset >> chafing i'm chafing? >> yeah. >> yeah, i'm chafing how about oracle and the trojan horse? how's that doing today in >> oracle and the trojan horse >> jonathan kanter is ready to stop that deal in a heartbeat. >> there's no antitrust on a skydance-paramount deal. >> oh, no, david, jonathan kanter watches the show, and what they're saying -- will you listen to me >> larry ellison is not -- >> just wave to regulators all day long >> the ftc does not watch the

show >> lina khan does not watch this show she will personally come down here and program her generative a.i. to figure out how to eliminate jim. >> i'm just saying if you're going to go after simon & schuster merging with whoever, you know, that's the steven king case, you think you're not going to go after organize snl. >> you're not. the fcc review will be significant. by the way, there's going to be plenty of asset sales associated with any deal, unless it was just a nondeal, and paramount just stays out there, but any deal cbs stations, the networks all anybody really wants is a studio that's of great value. the only other thing i would mention on paramount to sort of -- we talked about it enough for now, but the -- i do hear that shari redstone has other bids for just national amusements that don't involve any of the difficulties that we're -- difficulties or the complex transaction we're talking about. >> okay. >> maybe if they're real, she takes one and then there's

somebody else who's a control shareholder of the company and they can try and figure it out listen, jim, there's no antitrust. >> meanwhile, if you want something that's really relevant today. >> tell me something relevant, please >> to your 10:00 >> just in general, tell me something relevant >> sofi is down 10%. >> oh. >> skpthe full year was good they did trim q2 guide >> i didn't expect that. what i want to know, i know that tony's going to be -- anthony is going to be very open, but did it hurt, you know, how much is the cancellation of student loans matter how much does that convert they did that's -- people are just leading on and banging it down that's going to be a very big interview to have because there's a lot of individuals that own that stock. >> any concerns about republic first or the regionals today >> i think that's -- i think that's one and done. bad management i didn't -- i know people would like to read through, but that's a very small philadelphia bank that doesn't really have a foothold i wouldn't regard them as being

anything i could have brought it on friday if you saw. >> we mentioned dpz before the bell was up about seven premarket reiterates long-term guide we'll get mcdonald's this week >> russell weiner's done a remarkable job they have a loyalty program. the pickup has been really strong domestic has been a major turn got used to having one-plus, two-plus forget that. i happen to think that restaurant brands is going to be fantastic. that's pat doyle, who has done a remarkable job since he's come back remember, he rand domino's. it's fantastic pat doyle is the executive chairman, but david, they have really turned -- they've turned around burger king watch tim horton's ti i think it's going to be really good >> recent ipos i'm looking at rubric shares >> how you doing >> i don't have an opinion, jim. i'm sure you do. >> how about reddit?

>> we've got a big one coming this week, viking. there seems to be a good deal of sn enthusiasm for the ipo of the cruise -- >> royal caribbean has been fantastic. >> viking. i do recall last week, i thought you said sold to you but maybe i misheard you >> royal caribbean is the only one that i want to own royal caribbean is fabulous. the others aren't doing that well royal caribbean is killer. >> here's a look at rubrik i'm sorry. excuse me. priced below that. it's still above the -- >> enterprise with cybersecurity. there's so many of those deals waiting to happen. enterprise software and cybersecurity. that's what people -- that's what was -- they gave those companies billions and now they're trying to cash in. >> year to date, traditional ipos have raised almost $11 billion, 3x the year ago not bad. >> not bad at all. i think that the people want them rubrik was have been well received rubrik is a good company

it has the added advantage of being a good company >> there you go. it's got that going for it >> reddit, does it have the advantage of being a good company? i don't know if you get your news from reddit and tiktok, are you being influenced by the russians or the chinese? >> wow why sit up 7% today? >> well, because reddit, people are liking it. >> thank you for that keen observation. >> i'm a keen eye for the obvious like you did last week i will say this. this is from a reddit user steve hoffman has infused it with ads, and some people don't like that, but it's not a charity. >> one of the big nods is, you've been around for 20 years, and you haven't been able to become profitable. >> the user experience, they were unwilling to compromise now they're willing to compromise i know so many people who get their news from reddit it's incredible. they prefer that to, say, abc news they think it's just as good except for it's easier and

doesn't cost anything because they cut the cord years ago. these are the never-corders. don't you hate that? >> they never had cable. >> they love fixed wireless. they don't care about latency. >> fixed wireless. >> they don't care if they get the news four seconds late >> you can make an argument it's proved to be more of a competitive threat to traditional cable. >> have you tried it >> i have not tried it >> it's -- >> i see the t-mobile ads with aquaman. >> it's not as good as -- >> jason momoa, that's his name? aquaman. >> mike sievert, is he going to destroy everyone >> yes, he's going to destroy everyone he's a secret weapon >> he is >> yes, yes. >> you thought ledger was disruptive >> he's like lex luthor, a criminal mastermind. >> miss tessmacher we got blinken and saudi today, hoping that this hamas hostage

truce gets accepted. and oil, meantime, pretty steady here >> yeah. but there's a -- we're getting a lot of negative chatter about slb, the sold slumberger slb is disliked. slb is the best there is i mean, in terms of being pristine driller lot of people are saying, buy halliburton, not slb do you know that my wife sat next to matthew mcconaughey on the left side and mike sievert on the right side, did not speak to mcconaughey at all and told me, hey, that guy, sievert, is really cool. what does he do for a living i said, he runs t-mobile she says, he was much cooler than mcconaughey mcconaughey wanted to talk about stocks sievert wanted to talk about music. he liked dave matthews >> we did get an upgrade of t

today at barclay's >> i thought that was interesting. david, you want to comment >> i'd be happy to comment sort of mixed reaction to earnings from both verizon and at&t >> verizon went down big after being up >> it did. >> but hans is hans. >> there was a question as to the quality overall of the earnings, and then there's still this concern, overall, as well, as you well know, about this government program that's helped subs subsidize broadband usage. >> that's the most important thing in the world >> the largest of the companies that have relied on it, at least in part for some portion of their subscribers, is charter, but it includes at&t it includes comcast. and so -- >> the negative charter -- >> as that program starts to go away, it has been going away >> how can you convert those people how much money do you have >> i don't know. they don't clearly have enough money to pay their broadband bill fully without some aid. but the idea is to get as much

broadband to as many people as possible by the way, one way to do that, ultimately, will probably be starlink >> what? >> starlink. >> starlink. >> yeah. yeah never underestimate elon musk, man. spacex, what, $180 billion private market value already starlink >> starlink? just great that's who the real enemy is, and sievert's not the enemy? >> starlink is going to -- yeah. i doubted it at first, but it's for real, man. >> 2001 space odyssey, starlink. >> i got some notes from some conversations. i can't find it. >> dave, i'm sorry >> you dave me >> from "2001. >> oh. >> oh, yes i can't do that. >> starlink. >> i can't do that >> daisy crazy. hanging on to 5,110 this morning. as for bonds, busy week on that front as well with the fed decision, some isms this week, jobs number, j.o.l.t.s., and q1

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- so this is pickleball? - pickle! ah, these guys are intense. with e*trade from morgan stanley, we're ready for whatever gets served up. dude, you gotta work on your trash talk. i'd rather work on saving for retirement. or college, since you like to get schooled. that's a pretty good burn, right?

yousaf,. watch philips today soaring in the market today as the dutch medical devices maker gets a settlement on that personal injury issue regarded to the global recall of its ventilators used to treat sleep apnea. $1.1 billion and will not admit any fault or liability shares as you can see for the month up 40% dow up 120 stop trading with jim is up next

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sleep apnea. a lot of it is about philips, back in the scrum, i don't think so mick is really, really good. he's a ceo and also a terrific guy who understands. most these guys just understand device he understand illness. really fabulous. >> the stockmoved dramatically on friday. >> yes, it did because they had a great quarter. >> right. >> now we realize that royal phillips, i learned a lot from him. very educational very thoughtful man. >> we have the vix almost back to 15. >> i know. well, looks like happy days. those numbers, honestly, those numbers that we got, the number that we got from google makes people feel we're going to get a good number from amazon, which i like i think amazon is going to be good and then apple, remember, the jinx is on. >> can we end with the cows? >> massey and --

>> what's the names. >> lucy and may. >> i lucy on the left, massey on the right. and nvidia is not pictured. >> at least it wasn't a house this time. just a couple cows >> once you name them you can't eat them they're now pets >> they're safe into they can finally -- >> interesting jim. >> when you throw them a bale they tend to get their head underneath it and their tongue are so big david, you can give them candy. >> learn something new every day. >> i know cows. >> so much. >> yes. >> egraren gym. >> cows love corn, they prefer indian corn. >> farmer jim. the new farmer jim we'll see you tonight, "mad money," 6:00 p.m. eastern time sofi sinking despite the beat. anthony anthony nota will join us in the next hour.

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good monday morning. welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street. i'm sara eisen with carl quintanilla and david faber, live as always from post nine of the new york stock exchange. take a look at stocks. we are building on last week's gains. starting off the week in the green. there the s&p up 0.3%. consumer discretionary leading today thanks in part to tesla up almost 11% that's a big weight in that group. real estate, utilities, materials, industrials, they're all higher energy and financials up the only thing weaker right now is communication services and consumer staples on the communication services it's alphabet that's weighing on the group along with meta, netflix, some of the big earnings movers last week. take a look at treasuries getting bid this morning after a big selloff has pushed yields to the highs that we haven't seen since back in last fall. the 10-year yield 4.645%p. the 2-year just below 5% ahead of a huge week of catalysts in the macro world. we're 30 minutes into the trading session, here are three

big movers we're watching. another big day of gains for tesla. one of the top gainers in the s&p this morning the stock coming off its best week since january of last year ceo elon musk makes a surprise chip to china. we're going to head to beijing for the latest headlines in just a moment dominos in the green on pace for a sixth straight month of gains, quarterly earnings up 20%. same-store sales growth also beating system shares of sofi dropping despite beating earnings estimates and raising full-year guidance the company seeing personal loan originations jumping 20%, student loans rose more than 40% and home loans surging more than 270% sofi's ceo anthony noto joins us first on cnbc this hour to talk more about the results what they say about the environment and what's ahead it's a big week and starts today all the fun, 3:00 p.m. news from the treasury on how much they're going to be borrowing this quarter. obviously, that's in focus

the refunding announcement comes wednesday where they actually break down the coupon sizes of the auction. a lot of people aren't expecting too much of a difference here from the 200 or so billion that the treasury forecasts for the quarter. even though our debt needs are way up as we know, because of the finance of these deficits, we had strong auctions last week, we're going to have more next week. so far it's been pretty firm that's something that's helping cause a bid. as far as what else we look forward to this week, the fed is out on wednesday and then the key question there is how powell sounds on the sticky inflation readings and how much tolerance he's going to have for it. does he downplay the weaker gdp because he's worried about the inflation pressure as he has been, but, obviously, he pivoted and the last time we heard from him a ton of earnings on the consumer and then jobs. interestingly jobs might be the biggest market mover of all because we kind of know where the fed is and they're not

expected to change policy. we kind of know what's happening on -- in the bond market but on jobs, that average hourly earnings match was kind of benign up 0.3% and we still had some stronger inflation numbers. so i think the market will be carefully watching that earnings figure within the report. >> coming off the gdp number from last week do we have any questions at all as a result of how strong job growth will be in this economy >> by jobless claims, the most sort of real-time indicator. >> they look fine. >> 207 last week. >> and they fell last week, so it doesn't suggest that there's any big jobless problem. the unemployment rate has remained below 4% for years now. >> we'll tie the record if we get it in april set in the 1960s in terms of consecutive months below 4. i think goldman at 275 you saw today goldman gdp is running 3.5 for q2 and atlanta fed 3.9 for q2, which would

erase a lot of doubts about a slowdown. >> atlanta fed came in on the hot side on q1 and we watch it because it does update in real-time when the inputs come into it. it's not suggestive of a growth slowdown so that powell should be more worried about that over the sticky inflation and that's sof the thing. as far as the 10-year levels to watch, you know, the upper end of the range last week we got was 4.735% today we're seeing some relief on that side of. it all week long that's what we're going to focus on. also there's a huge movement overnight in the dollar/yen. i sound like a broken record - >> i thought you were going to lead with that. >> i almost did. >> where are we? what's happening >> dollar/yen went up past 160, right. strong dollar, weak japanese yen and then this intraday, if we can show the intraday chart that shows the drama of what traders on the desk were dealing with in foreign exchange because they intervened, at least according to people familiar with the matter they didn't come out and say we intervened but the hallmarks of

intervention and now they walked it back down to 156. the problem is, this is being driven by u.s. interest rate differentials, with japan and europe, by the way, and with the uk and so it's going to be hard for them to unilaterally -- this is a market that trades like $5.5 trillion a day. central banks are going to have to spend a lot of money and a lot of people think more than 2022, the last time bank of japan intervened if they really want to reverse the trend. so far they've done it a little bit, but, you know, we'll -- we'll see if they're able to succeed on that front. that's going to be a question that could also -- if they're in there selling dollars, could ultimately pressure u.s. treasuries haven't really seen much of an impact on that so far. it shows you what fed does matters everywhere. >> around the world. >> around the world. all sorts of global markets. >> as sara points out, s&p,

nasdaq, coming off the best week of the year since last november ahead of the busiest week of earnings season. nearly a third of s&p reports, 20% of the dow, got the fed and jobs number on friday. our senior markets commentator mike santoli is back to help us get ready. there's a lot. what is important to focus on. >> there is. i would characterize this as an ongoing test based on all the things that sara says the market is contending with last week passed the first part of the test, market had three straight down weeks, oversold, should bounce, and we did bounce as we get through the mega cap earnings season there's a familiar earnings pattern where earnings season starts off everyone is beating by a lot and we expected it market is not rewarding it mega cap earnings, at least if not else, substantiates where aggregate s&p estimates are and where they are $250 a share on a forward 12-month basis easy math in your head 5,000 s&p is 20 times forward earnings we're a little bit above that, and i think one of the reasons you continue to grant a premium

even when it comes to a meta and a dispointed street on guidance, because these companies convey that everything is in their control. if they miss, if they're light on guidance because they've decided to invest heavily up front and to question what the return on that is going to be. so i think that all that stuff is falling into place. you could still look at the chart of the s&p and say, just a little bit of a reflex bounce. you still haven't gotten over the 50-day this is where bounces tend to peter out and we have to deal with what the fed says, two-sided risk and where yields have gotten to i think the big question is, we have a high metabolism economy right now. that means better growth than expected, a little bit higher inflation than we thought and companies can make hay with that and they can, you know, invest against that and then they're still hiring and that's a good thing. the question is, do we think it raises the risks if the fed is really patient if we keep rates up here on the short ep end because you are seeing some wear and tear, i think, on the consumer not in the overall, but on par to the consumer

if you look at equal weighted consumer shal stocks relative to industrials in particular, they're at the lows. it's because the industrials is where you have a lot of the big mega themes people are excited about and consumer, it's -- there's wear and tear there. >> i think the question is, a little bit of sticky inflation is okay, backed by a strong economy. that's what the stock market is telling you. >> exactly. >> if it's backed by a weakening economy, then you start talking about stagflation and that's worrisome. >> you don't necessarily want inflation to be more than half of your nominal growth if you think about it that way if you had 5% nominal growth, inflation 2.5 that's fine. in general the market starts to worry if it's more inflation i think stagflation is probably overused and people think of it as double-digit inflation and nominal and real growth is negligible alongside of it nonetheless to your point you don't want it to be mostly about sticky prices. i think you're still going to have a contingent saying the fed is being too cute here

we're under 3, historically under 3 is fine for the markets and economy. you don't necessarily have to, you know, speed your way to the 2% target, but you don't want to back slide too much against that. >> i was taken by the comments from the capital one chief consumer source of strength, labor market resilient, bank balance above prepandemic. rising debt manageable that's capital one. >> we would worry about it and they want to spin it as inaggregate, the entire pool of borrowers looks okay vintage credit card balances have become a problem and maybe you've realized that maybe they've soured to the degree they're going to sour, back to prepandemic levels i'm not talking about the consumer is going to peiter out, but it is something that in terms you look where the strength is relatively and where you sort of say what's the risk of staying at these rates and kind of betting that you can, you know, keep unemployment in check along the way, that's where the risk seems to be. >> i think the risk is the fed makes a mistake and stay too

long. >> may be the mistake. >> the irony now, everybody is saying the fed can't lose its independent after that journal report about the trump administration and comments from the biden administration, too, and a lot of people think that either way, the fed is going to set up to make a mistake keeping rates historically high during an election year to keep inflation -- >> i keep saying what's -- what's your inference from how they made the mistake the last time was it that they were insufficiently vigilant about inflation and it was going to be transitory or the real mistake not looking forward at the turn and saying okay, things are changing here, we've kind of done our job on growth and they have to fight inflation. maybe now the thing is we've done our job on inflation and make sure we can preserve the soft landing >> author burns was trying to please nixon and got the economy at the expense of inflation. >> mike, thank you. >> morgan stanley. tesla, the shares of the ev maker up over 11% this morning

right near a $600 billion market value yet again. elon musk made a surprise visit to beijing he met with officials there, including china's premier li let's get to eunice yoon who has the latest on what they talked about and what is behind the rally in the stock eunice >> reporter: thanks, david here are the three big takeaways you need to know this hour first, after musk visited with the chinese premier, tesla flagged that beijing deemed it compliant with new data security rules. as a result, the statement said that local governments that had restricted where tesla cars were allowed to go are lifting those restrictions two, in the past hour, official media said that its reporter confirmed with tesla in china that its full self-driving or fsd software would launch in china, quote, soon and, three, there is no confirmation, though plenty of reports, chinese tech giant baidu would provide the

map and that tesla's musk is looking still to get approval from beijing to have data transferred overseas, which would potentially be good for training of its autonomous driving algorithm. guys >> how long -- mine, where does the fsd world stand overall in china right now, eunice, in terms of the potential entry over time of tesla, but, you know, where does the technology stand? >> reporter: well, so far the technology isn't here. and that's been one of the big advantages of its chinese rivals chinese rivals such as xpeng have touted that they have their own driver assistance service, which is, they say, much better than fsd and so for tesla, this would be what some analysts say a game changer because it would allow them to offer this type of

service. as you know, chinese people really like a lot of these new technologies. >> and the government potentially is in a position to move it forward? i don't know more quickly than might be the case, for example, in the u.s. or we simply don't know? >> reporter: well, i think if the government wants it to be here they will be allowed to be here what's interesting from the chinese perspective, tesla is helping it reach its long-term goals of the government here wants to be dominant in several areas, such as ai, autonomous, evs. tesla is strong in all of those areas. there's also something else that's been interesting. state media have been using musk's visit as a bit of a marketing tool, saying that his commitment to china is just proof that the west's complaints about overcapacity in china are

behind of course those same state media don't really mention that tesla isn't really the one with the overcapacity problem. >> i was going to ask, eunice, how his visit compares with secretary blinken's visit, secretary yellen's visit, in china? they both came in the last few weeks and we covered it pretty heavily. what was the reception like, just from everything, from the state meetings to the media coverage to how he was welcomed? >> reporter: well, he was definitely very welcomed i started getting alerts right away that he was in town, and so that -- from a public standpoint, people think he's an incredible business person they have a lot of respect for him. from a state media perspective, also it's been very splashy and people have been talking about how he's had this wonderful meetings with the chinese premier who said that the relationship is win-win. i mean, compared to blinken and yellen, it's also a little bit

different. secretary blinken is seen as one with much harsher tone, but i mean, as you probably noticed, secretary yellen is also a rock star here. people are really interested in everything that she does, like even the way she uses her chopsticks. >> that was fun to see thank you, eunice. eunice yoon in beijing for us. as we head to break here's our road map for the rest of the hour chip stocks coming off big gains posting their first weekly gain in six setting up to be a big earnings group. >> there are potential news here about regional banks we have another bank failure what investors need to know. >> and sofi's chief anthony noto will join us first on cnbc to talk about what's ahead for the fin tech giant stock is lerow today big show still ahead as "squawk on the street" continues it's a pillow with a speaker in it! that's right craig. a team that's highly competent. i'm just here for the internets. at&t it's super-fast. reliable. you locked us out?!

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when people are fed, futures are nourished. join the movement to end hunger and together we can open endless possibilities for people to thrive. visit feedingamerica.org/actnow welcome back to "squawk on the street." chip stocks in focus as the smh comes off its best week since may of last year kristina partsinevelos is, of course, tracking the action heading into a busy week of earnings from the space. good morning. >> yes good morning busy week. there was week one of chips earnings was also in the books now and despite some red flags from taiwan semi and asml some are calling for the cyclical bottom for nonai plays the earnings out this morning they had an earnings beat. q2 guidance fell short they are exposed to evs and

tesla. nxp is out tonight and has less exposure to evs an more exposure to china you can see how you want to read that the big it driver for the ai chip space is rising cloud capex pend microsoft, alphabet and google are expected to spend and that doesn't include the 140 does not include amazon and apple spend as well. it bodes well for compute names like nvidia which surged about 15% last week. shares are down slightly today vee thone melius is rupp, a price target $1,125 on this name you can see shares trading at 874 right now. other nvidia alternatives, amd, out tuesday after the bell, custom chip makers marvel and broadcom and the reason these ones benefit, too, because companies are looking to lessen concentration risk on nvidia and expend their supply chain. it's not all sunshine and roses outside of ai, tech spending is

still soft accenture, ibm, intel, tsmc warned of weaker spend in q1 and q2 intel and sk warned of softer pc sales and sk hanknicks, smartphone sales which is concerning for qualcomm. hesitation out that name out wednesday after the bell. >> thank you kristina partsinevelos nvidia's ceo jensen huang making headlines in a wide ranging interview on "60 minutes" saying while ai will change the world it will not cause human jobs to go away. our next guest believes the ai spending trend will continue matt bryson with webb bush senior vice president of equity security research and hardware has a buy on nvidia price target even 1,000 "60 minutes" does a great job of informing people about things, you know, about nvidia perhaps that so many don't know about. not our audience they know plenty so let's forget about that and talk about last week's news that was more important for our audience, which is namely

alphabet, microsoft, meta, those capex numbers were enormous, matt what does it mean for nvidia when you look through those numbers in terms of how much of that spend ends up with that company? >> look, these large data center operators have been spending more and more on ai as a percentage of their capex, now they're telling you they're going to spend more in capex and while that's going to be devoted to ai, nvidia said multiple times that the cloud is more than 50% of their spend. i think you add social media in there, you're probably talking more than two-thirds of their spend. so if those large consumers are going to spend more that's a great thing for nvidia. >> yeah. how do you model it out? i can go through tesla and what they're going to spend and musk's ex-ai start-up raising billions to basically spend in

the data center so to speak, and on and on from there is the market justified in sort of the current multiple on this stock, and or should it be higher given the potential it has? >> nvidia, from a multiple perspective, isn't crazy expensive. the last time we downgraded nvidia because it was getting close to 50 times, which you have to go back to cisco in 2000 at the peak of the internet bubble to have that type of valuation historically for such a large company. now from an earnings perspective, if i remember correctly my multiple is based on a little over 30 times. nvidia has traded their historically i don't think it's expensive i think rather the question is at some point do we get a pause in investment because some of the promises of ai haven't shown up yet i don't think that's happening this year. i don't think it's happening

through blackwell. we're a year plus out from that being a risk in my view. >> is china still a wild card in this story at all? >> i think it's a wild card in the sense that nvidia is apparently shipping some product again, so there's some benefit there. do they lose that benefit again because the u.s. steps in? perhaps. at some point china has tocome up with a strategy around ai and that potentially is a threat, but i think that's some ways out because they're handicapped by the restrictions the u.s. has put on their ability to get equipment and to make advanced ai. >> when you talk about a slowdown in demand at some point is that dependent on whether or not the enterprise comes up with enough applications to make it worth company's pursuit of these in terms of spending the money

>> that's exactly it so you look at the applications we see right now i think ai has changed the coding industry. but beyond that, everything is very company or industry perfect, so you see applications around visual tests for mother boards that doesn't really benefit all of us. on "60 minutes" they had a number of segments around how, for instance, it's benefitting robotics, but those robots aren't in production environments yet we need another major application that's ubiquitous in our lives, something like an uber to show up. i think that will be developed, it's just no one knew that ride sharing was going to be a thing before ride sharing was a thing. >> got it. matt, appreciate it. thank you. >> thank you. meanwhile, still to come the u.s. seeing its first high-profile bank failure this year and the fourth since last spring we'll get you details and talk about the potential impact on the financials when we return.

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no audio. >> hey, carl the fdic seized republic first and sold it to fulton financial, those shares jumping this morning. republic had about $6 billion in assets making it the sixth largest bank failure since the crisis, however less than 3% of the size of similarly named first republic when that bank went under almost exactly a year ago. the contours of pluckic's demise, the bank had its own managerial issues. as of a year ago rising interest rates boosted the unrealized losses on the balance sheet and profitability on the decline, however a more recent snapshot is impossible to come by because republic never filed year-end financials for 2022 and 2023, causing it to be delisted. it was unable to solidify outside capital injections that were helpful in boosting other

beleaguered banks like pacwest and new york community bank corp the fdic estimates that the cost to the deposit insurance fund related to the failure of republic first will be $667 million. that's a responsibility largely borne by the banking system itself the regional banks shrugging off the news as well with the kre basically flat today, not too much reaction there from other regionals. guys >> leslie, thank you leslie picker. we'll continue to watch any more fallout from that. still to come getting ready for another rate decision this week we have exclusive results from our cnbc fed survey on the outlook for inflation and growth and reminder this coming saturday is berkshire hathaway's meeting. warren buffet will take shareholder questions. we'll be directing some of those questions to mr. buffet along with other executives. a shareholder with a question send it to berk shire

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welcome back, everyone i'm contessa brewer with your cnbc news update an israeli official said today the country is concerned its leaders could become the target of arrest warrants from the international criminal court this week. the official told nbc news israel is working through diplomatic channels to block the possible warrants against prime minister benjamin netanyahu, defense minister yoev galant and other senior military officials. the icc confirmed it has an ongoing investigation, but did not comment otherwise. columbia university's president says talks with student organizers failed to produce an agreement to end protests and the pro-palestinian encampment on the ivy league campus the university will not meet

demands to divest from israel and urged demonstrators to leave voluntarily. panda diplomacy is back. san diego zoo officials say china is preparing to send a pair of giant pandas this summer there had been questions about whether china would resume the efforts with various zoos around the united states as foreign relations deteriorate with beijing. we can't get enough oohing and awing, carl. >> you like panda diplomacy, thank you. contessa brew jer. surprising e-koh data changed rates this week. our senior economic reporter steve liesman with a fresh look at the cnbc fed survey hey, steve. >> good morning, carl. yeah, the cnbc fed survey forecasters after the numbers last week they ratcheted up q2 growth but also ratcheted up the outlook for 2024 inflation upgrading growth we've seen that, but it's the most

substantial inflation nupg a while for this survey here take a look at the numbers after a weaker than expected gdp the stronger consumer spending data, the 29 respondents boosted second quarter growth from 2.1 we have no data, this is the early forecast what they did is -- what they missed in q1 into q2 higher starting point for consumption. inflation is now sooep send and ending the year above 3% up from 2.7. that number is in line with the fed's forecast for core pce for 2024, cpi running at 2.6, but above the target range, you figure that cpi runs a half point hotter than the pce. about half of respondents say the recent run of higher inflation is a blip. half say it could be the beginning of a longer term stall in inflation that's going to keep inflation stuck around 3 if the fed doesn't act and is growing pessimism the fed can hit the target of 2%

writing inflation is likely to run above target unless and until there's a fiscal policy tightening you don't get there with 7% debt to gdp ratios. unemployment seen rising from a current rate of 3.8 to 4.1 4.3 by the end of next year. gradually creeping up. and 50% of our respondents say the fed cannot get to the target without growth running below potential and at least a half point increase in the unemployment rate. only 20% think we can get there from here without that kind of bad news in the economy. how much the economy has to weaken, does it have to weaken for the fed to hit its inflation target is going to be one of the pressing questions for the central bank. >> is that the consensus in the economics community now, now that it's fiscal spending keeping the economy so well and inflation so hot >> i don't know that it's consensus. i think some people see it as a

part of it some people see it as all of it. but barry net makes a case i wish i could read the full quote if i can find it what he basically said is, when i went to study economics, here it is right here, put my glasses on, when i studied economics in the early '80s, no economist would have forecast a recession with 7% budget deficits and spending near post world war ii his. the immediate record is not a debt crisis though one could develop in the long run. it is inflation. sara, i'm sure you thought about this i've been thinking about this. that government spending is not inherently inflationary. it's a lot of government spending for goods and labor that may or may not be available to provide that government spending so what biden did, i think he's spending money on things that perhaps we need, roads, bridges, and infrastructure, things like that, the chips thing, you got to parse it out over time.

you cannot say okay, here, do all of this at once. so i think for sure, i don't think there's a consensus around this but there is a consensus around the fiscal spending part is playing a role in inflation here. >> yeah. certainly keeping jobs available and getting companies to hire. that's what larry fink and robert kaplan has been talking about this, former dallas fed president. it's a good debate i doubt we'll hear the fed talk about it, though. >> but they have to deal with it you know, sometimes i think powell can be his own worst enemy because what they say is, you know, we'll just deal with what they give us. guess what the fed is really responding to fiscal policy and how are they doing so by just the question you asked, sara if fiscal policy is creating inflation the fed is keeping rates higher than ne normally would be because it does respond to fiscal policy. >> steve, thank you.

steve liesman. get we get earnings from apple and amazon this week amazon first up that's tomorrow. kate rooney gives us a closer look at what investors need to watch. kate >> hey, david. look at the advertising. we hear about amazon's cloud business, ai, but ads and advertising is a less talked about but really a core part of amazon's bull case the bar is higher after snap, microsoft and alphabet all au strong demand for digital ads. investors factoring in amazon's move into tv style commercials and paid ad tier for prime sports are in focus. prime video will stream its first nfl playoff game next season and bloomberg reporting amazon is close to a deal to bring nba games to prime and more ad spending expected ahead of the election. they also have ads embedded in amazon's e-commerce platform with key words and sponsored shopping in its last report in q4 ad revenue soared 26% year over year

that was double the growth of the north america and aws sales segments wolf research says amazon makes up 8% of total global ad spend and expects that to out grow the broader industry by 2 xand ubs upping its price target citing the high margin revenue stream of prime video ads and some of the ad revenue is expecting that to come in at $11 billion for the quarter. pretty much in line with street estimates. guys, back over to you. >> kate, appreciate that one of the big numbers of the week kate rooney on amazon. shares of sofi in red despite the guidance boost and numbers that beat estimates. ceo anthony noto will join us to break down that quarter when we come back after a break.

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sofi shares under pressure despite better than expected revenue and income last quarter. the company delivering a disappointing q2 forecast and saying 2024 remains a transition year joining us exclusively, sofi ceo anthony noto welcome back good to see you. >> good to see you as well. >> why is the stock down 9% despite a strong increase to guide? what is the street taking from this >> yeah. i think it's important to focus on the results and what that means for the full year and then what that means for our three-year outlook in the quarter we achieved 26% year over year growth in revenue, $581 million. we had 25% ebitda margins and grew that almost 100% at $144 million. more importantly, we have grown book value per share, 16% sequentially by about $600 million. we had record deposits of $3 billion. and really strong overall performance. the most important thing about those trends that i point out

and the reason why 2004 i2024 i transition year, low capital high return businesses, our technology platform business and financial services businesses. those two businesses when combined grew 54% year over year against lending that was flat. as we came into 2024, given the uncertainty in rates and the economy, as well as liquidity, for the industry, not us, and despite having excess capital we made a decision to put the resources behind these high return businesses that actually are big enough now to drive overall growth and profitable enough to do that. that's the key message coming out of the quarter is that transition is taking place and going well which sets us up for a great 2024 we raised '24 revenue guidance by more than our beat. the comparison to q2 we've not provided q2 guidance before. the street had an estimate there that was above what we guided to, but for the full year, estimates will be going up

relative to consensus by more than the beat in q1. >> thanks for clarifying all the expectations game. what can you tell us about credit quality for borrowers >> what we've said is that credit will normalize back to precovid levels and we're on track to do that our life loan loss targets are 7 to 8% and we remain comfortable with those expectations. we are higher credit than most, focus on prime credit and high fico scores when we underwrite credit we've taken a conservative view on credit primarily because of the fact that it's not clear where rates will go. at one point last year in october people were talking about higher for longer and then by the end of the year they were talking about six rate cuts and now looking at one to two rate cuts that type of volatility and uncertainty creates a backdrop that we think allows us to be more conservative in lending and much more aggressive in technology platform in our financial services business. a lot of people don't realize that in our financial services

business we have sofi money, sofi invest, sofi insurance, sofi credit cards and a few other high margin businesses and that's profitable which allows us to scale that acquisition and that's what's driving our 44% growth in members to 8.1 million now almost 12 million products >> you know there's been some dissection of the ecodata, the macro data, the saving rate going to the low 3s. and some argue it's a sign of stress that consumers are living on the edge. others argue this is about the boomer generation spending every last penny of their nest egg do you have any idea what's going on >> well, we definitely have a member base that's saving. our deposits grew a record $3 billion in the quarter we provided very attractive interest rate of 4.6% on year savings with direct deposit and large recurring deposit on a monthly basis. so we're seeing great trends there and it's not just the growth in depositses it's the growth in spending. we had about $1.8 billion of

debt spending on the platform up from the low $1 billion last quarter so we're annualizing $8 billion now. and again that's on a member base and sofi money that's at 3.5 million. >> what's it going to take to get personal loan growth you said you had a lot of dry powder for that. >> we don't -- that's the point, sara we gave a forecast for our lending business to be 95 to 92% of 2023. primarily because we don't want to grow our balance sheet in this environment that aggressively and so while we're growing strong growth in tech platform financial services it's still carrying strong overall top line growth to the company at 26% revenue growth year over year in q1 that's our 12th consecutive quarter with more than 25% year over year revenue growth >> you know, obviously, i heard you going through the numbers in your answer to sara's first question are you disappointed in watching the stock down 9% or is that kind of what you kind of expected coming in given you knew the numbers

>> yeah. i would say going to each quarter with a view on how we did and what outlook is which is positive i wouldn't be a great prognosticator on our stock that's incredibly volatile and that's tied to the uncertainty in the macro economic environment and today you wake up, there's of a bank over the weekend. it's the one year anniversary of first republic going out in addition to that, you had some challenging issues with the yen and the japanese government having to take action there. there are many factors that impact it. i always go back to, is our strategy working absolutely we're going to do $2.4 billion plus in revenue this year, growing quite meaningfully we had our second quarter of gaap profitability and we grew tangible book share 16% year over year and raised our to $800 million to $1 billion. in addition to that, last quarter to help people have a longer view, we gave an outlook

through 2026 for earnings of 55 cents to 80 cents. the quarterly results in the full-year outlook reinforced that trend that's what we're trying to have investors focus on as opposed to the next quarter's data point. >> you mentioned tech growth as a driver for you what is your competitive advantage there that other banks and financial services don't offer? >> first on the tech platform it grew 21% year over year on a revenue basis which is an acceleration compared to the last two quarters. sofi is a one-stop shop for all your digital financial needs because we are a one-stop shop, we have greater demands on data abilities, we have fraud capabilities, and because s oochlt fi needs all those technologies, we're building cutting edge technologies like a gen 3 core and payment

processing and issuing because we need those things, the only company providing one-stop shop for digital financial services we're building technologies that will benefit everyone else and turn that into a business like amazon did with aws. >> anthony noto, thank you for joining us and providing clarity for the viewers. thank you. ceo of sofi. >> appreciate it take care. coming up on the next hour, ceo of dutch medical device philips as shares surge. the move up 31%. the company agreeing to $1.1 billion settlement in the u.s. for personal injury cases linked to the recall of sop of its sleep apnea devices. we'll get the ceo's take on what's next for the company. that'somg o"mey ve cinupn onmors."

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grandpa! what's this? your wings. light 'em up! gentlemen, it's a beautiful... ...day to fly. paramount, heavy negotiating going on between the special committee for the board of directors and the bid in exclusive talks in that group led by ellison, skydance as i record earlier, what i'm hearing at least is the belief in that camp they had made what they believe is their best offer, which is that there will be, in addition to everything i've discussed previously, some sort of premium available to be

paid to b holders, that is the common shareholders, for some percent, relatively small percent of their shares as a part of that deal. trying to at least get by the objections of that special committee when it comes to sort of how they deliver value for the broad shareholder base as opposed to just the control shareholder, namely sherri red stone. will that come to pass unclear. will they get to some higher number unclear. exclusivity runs out on friday that doesn't mean much in terms of negotiations, which could continue after that. another wild card is whether apollo and sony will put together a true bid of some kind with some granularity that gets the attention of that special committee. and then management, which may very well change as of the close of business today. we'll hear from the company, earnings later it is expected as well that ceo bob bakish is going to be departing, replaced by some sort of committee that will be

running the company. that, of course, adds to the risk in a way if you're the ellison group. if you do get to a deal and agree to a deal, you're sitting there for some time while the regulatory reviews are ongoing, with the management team that's by committee with overlevered company that's still dealing with a charter renewal any number of risks out there. which is why, perhaps, they may not want to go much higher than they currently are we'll keep an eye on shares of paramount, certainly to be revisited after the bell. when it comes to the broader market, we'll keep an eye on that as well with the s&p up 3%. apple shares up 3.37% on upgrade from bernstein a lot more market coverage for a lot more market coverage for you straight ahead. we're all rock stars. oooo look look at my data driven insights, i'm a rock star. great job putting finance and hr on one platform with workday. thank you! guys, can you keep it down. i'm working. you people are (guitar noises). hand over the air guitar.

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(♪♪) good monday morning. welcome to "money movers." i'm carl quintanilla with sara eisen live at post 9 of the new york stock exchange. today an upgrade of apple. bernstein on why they are coming off the sidelines for the first time in two years. then shares of philips at a two-year high after a smaller than expected settlement over its sleep apnea devices. the ceo joins us. one of morgan stanley's top ipo bankers te