good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. here we go another week let's check it out green arrows for the u.s. equities last week was a good one for most of the major advantages s&p and nasdaq had the best week since november you are looking at everybody doing well except for the dow tran transports closing below the 50-day and 200-day moving average we will keep an eye on that. dow futures right now are up 40 points s&p up 4 and nasdaq up 26. if you look at the treasury markets, we do have the fed

meeting this week along with the jay powell press conference. that will be the focuses for the markets. right now, the ten-year yield is just about where it has been the last tcouple weeks pro-palestinian protests continuing on college campuses over the weekend some schools requesting police intervention to stop encampments. jill stein was arrested at a protest. she said it was about freedom of speech which needs debate and dialogue at ucla, protests by pro-palestinian and pro-raisrael supporters and at state university, they paused connections to boeing after they demanded to cut ties

with the weaponing manufacturing division the school has no investment in boeing it accepted $150,000 in donations. boeing providing $28,000 a year for scholarships the university paper aresident d in response to the issues. officials in china removed restrictions on tesla cars after the vehicles passed the data security requirements. just this morning, the wall street journal is reports that chinese officials tentatively approved the plan to launch the self-driving features in the country. it will deploy based on the mapping by baidu elon musk had a series of meetings during a surprise visit that lasted less than 24 hours elon musk's time is valuable

he can do things quickly when you start hearing of things he gets wrapped up in with depositions, imagine what happens in a seven-hour deposition tesla shares on this news are up 7.5% now to talks at paramount global sources tell cnbc the company board is preparing to fire bob bakish as soon as this morning and paramount reports today. bakish will not be on that call. i don't know what it says about the results. the company is in talks exclusively with skydance media. that window lasts until this friday the spokesperson for paramount declined to comment on the report >> the report suggested that bakish was not in favor of the merger and slowing things down

he thinks it is unfair to other shareholders over the weekend, regulators seizing the troubled philadelphia bank republic first bank and selling to fulton financial. the bank was closed on friday by state regulators and sold by the auction run by the fdic. talk about 24 hours moves. paper losses on bonds that lost value as interest rates rose and high uninsured deposits to flee. all republic first branches are set to reopen under fulton ownership at scheduled hours today. regulators were prepared to shutdown last year to shore up the bank >> so confusing. it shows you if there is a first republic, don't name your stupid

bank republic first. >> you are confused about the name >> a year ago, that was a big deal this is a $3 billion -- this was the only reason we are reporting on it is people were confused of first republic or republic bank. given the shift in the fed and everything else and everybody talking about it >> not this is being suggested yet, but the next move would be a hike and that would be a different scenario for these banks. >> just because this was tiny and not first republic doesn't mean there is nothing to worry about. >> cracks along the way. shares of dutch medical devices giant philips are soaring after the company agreed to a $1.1 billion settlement in the united states for personal injury cases linked to the recall of some of the sleep apnea devices. millions of devices were recalled in 2021 over concerns that some of the components

carried cancer risks potentially. philips did not admit fault or liability or any injuries caused by its devices phillips says the test results showed the no reasonable harm to health the usissue was the breakdown of the components and you breathe those in during your sleep >> andrew went down to the correspondents dinner. >> ha-ha >> you came in and saying you were too old. >> i'm not saying you are too old. i'm too old to be in washington on a weekend like that >> i'll take it to the next story. another thing that you have to look forward to, perhaps, is this sleep apnea, possibly

i had tests one way and it was moderate i refuse to test on my side. if it were to be i adhad it, i' not wearing one of those things. >> i know people who have used it and they get better >> it gets moldy and spittle it's gross how many miigs have you shot down per day, maverick i can't do it, andrew. i can't. have you seen it you are attached. >> if it will save your life and make your sleep better i'm all about sleep. sleep to me is the whole game. >> it happens later in life for some reason. i don't know why it's not good. there is some implantable thing? it involves an implantable let's get to the reason why we're exhausted and becky is

smarter about it journalists and government officials gathered this weekend at the white house correspondents dinner. president biden spoke and roasted rival donald trump and took jabs from host this year, colin jost >> yes, age is an issue. i'm a grown man running against a 6-year-old i had a great stretch since the state of the union donald has had a few tough days lately you might call it stormy weather. >> the economy is kind of like you on the steps of air force one. it feels like it's stumbling, but there's somehow upward progress >> we just acknowledge how refreshing it is to see a president of the united states at an event that doesn't begin

with the bailiff saying all rise >> i thought biden got a little dark toward the end of it. he used the bloodbath comment and appealed for freedom of the exp press and honesty in the press he said if you are a decent person, there's only one choice in the election. colin jost did both sides, i guess. something else i heard it was sort of typical we have been to ten of them in a row? >> i don't know about that i haven't been in a long time. to me, the joke i thought was the funniest and he looked at his watch and it's past 10:00 p.m. and then trump was sleeping all week a protest being "anti-woke."

i'm trying to be funny i'm not getting the laugh. he got better laughs than i did just now >> woke is a word you won't acknowledge as having any meaning. i tried to use it on you. >> it is woke -- >> you say there is no such thing. >> i have to fix this. >> you will not fix it >> there's this -- a thing on your shirt >> a string on my shirt. this is when you know -- thank you. thank you, dear. >> how often do i say your tie is sideways. you come running in here. >> i was putting on my mic as we were coming in >> there are a couple of features >> we can tell them later. coming up, get ready for a busy week of earnings.

a fed meeting and the april employment meeting. and later, roger fguerson will join us with his interest rate expectations. "squawk box" is coming right back and more about discovering magic. rich is being able to keep your loved ones close. and also send them away. rich is living life your way. and having someone who can help you get there. the key to being rich is knowing what counts. new projects means new project managers. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job, you immediately get

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okay we're back i did remember it's when colin jost came out and said there are some incredible news organizations here he goes, a couple of credible

news organizations that was a good line he started with that started with that. our next guest says the biggest change in the options market is that investors are more interested in hedging and that wasn't the case last time. let's bring in amy wu silverman at rbc capital markets not surprising since the last time you were on, we have seen a change in sentiment all over the place. let's starts with the notion that volatility had caused pretty big premiums in calls and, yet, the actual moves on either way on some of these reports, the earnings, that came out and were greater than the increased call premiums had predicted. >> that is exactly right last week was a big week, obviously, for magnificent seven names. it will continue to be for apple

and amazon although we had big moves in meta and google , the options di not beeat the realized move you with still doing okay because the magnitude on the earnings matter to the stock and matter to the market as a whole that you are benefitting from that volatility and it will be interesting because apple and amazon are key for this week and coming in fair it is like the market is starting to bake in the idea that the moves on meta and google were inexpensive over what happened in earnings. >> it could be another surge in interest and volatility with nvidia >> it is the poster child, joe this is the market's baby. the last time we spoke, we were really at peak exuberance.

historic bid for demand for calls. that waned the a.i. talk from google last week show there is is more room to reason. we have not seen that call pick up this is the first time it has been uninverted that is an interesting segment for the market which since may of 2023 of last year has been hitting historic highs with the right tail. >> right tail is just a way you refer to bullishness or calls and you are now saying the left tail shows interest there that wasn't there last time >> you know, we refer to right tail and left tail because we look at everything from the bell curve curve, if you will what is interesting, the left tail has picked up one thing i want to make clear

is it is not you have seen to so often in the market with the left tail. it is geopolitical partly and also because the market is pricing in left tails with potential rate hikes that is not something we are baking in, but the tail end is starting to increase and other unknowns in the market. >> in the past, when it hasn't happened, by the time people think i might want to hedge, they think it is already over. is that why? >> you know, the options market has been a little bit of a fail in the past few years. in 2022, we drew down 20%. owning puts on that market drew down 21% meaning owning that hedging hasn't paid off, but given that, the market is still saying we should think about hedging that tells you about the bubbling concerns in the left tail. >> i notice you are defllving io

the mergers case will they at least admit that maybe there's no cuts this year? >> you know, that is something that i will tell you that the investors we have spoken to have been saying that since february. even since before the next pivot that we had. that's why the left tail began to pick up the second part is the absence of the right tail being as strong as it has been. people are being more picky about a.i. last year was about a.i. tide lifting all a.i. boats investors are saying we need more proof and you are seeing that in the underline betting market with the options. >> the fed, as you point out in

six months -- do we have an election >> yeah. >> in six months, we have an election and one candidate can't campaign because he's got to be in court half the country thinks this guy needs to be in court and needs to go from court to jail the other half thinks he is in court because he is unfairly prosecuted by his political opponents. that doesn't make for a good back drop. >> it is amazing the fact we have just gotten to the part of the election and that underlining volatility with the vix term structure, there's a noticeable bump in november. it is the market saying we hadn't been thinking about volatility during elections. this is unprecedented in a lot of ways. again, that's why this left tail has ticked up although post-covid, it hasn't worked we still have the worry and the

a.i. right tail is not enough time to weigh it out. >> amy wu silverman, thank you did you see how bad it got at one point? colin jost said i visited the white house and i had some coke and i left it there. i'm glad it got put to good use when the president did the state of the union did you hear that one? >> sorry >> that was a shocker, was it not? >> it was a funny, as they say little bit >> that's all you'll get at that is a little bit funny. thank you. when we come back, goldman sachs telling workers not to take sneaky trips to the olympics this summer we've got the details on this story next "squawk box" will be right back.

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goldman sachs is on the lookout for employees who are looking to attend the paris olympics this summer on the company's dime the bank told ply employees taking trips between july and august must first get approval employees were told to manage the spend and the firm sponsored events for clients >> we'll be there. we don't need to be sneaking out on the company dime. >> we're on air. >> i feel them it is very structured. it should be we're going -- hopefully, it is a big event. there has to be a lot of security

olympics is a very -- >> i would say there are a lot of clients there that's where -- >> you can go. you have to get approval first to make sure you are going for a work event or clients. >> paris >> paris >> if you had to pick a city -- >> paris in summer not a bad way to go. coming up on the other side of this, not paris, china. tesla shares jumping after elon musk's surprise trip there we will take you live to beijing right after the break. later, we get you ready for the busy week of earnings and the fed meeting and jobs report. all that and more as "squawk box" rolls on. >> announcer: executive edge is sponsored by at&t business next level moments need the next level network. that's right craig. a team that's highly competent. i'm just here for the internets. at&t it's super-fast.

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good morning welcome back to "squawk box." we're live from the nasdaq market site in times square. the futures are picking up a bit over the last half hour. dow up 56.

this comes after a good week for the markets. meanwhile, tesla ceo elon musk making a surprise visit to beijing as the china vehicles passing the country's data security requirements. let's get to eunice yoon who joins us with the latest the stock has made a move pre-market up 8% on the back of the news that eunice is about to bring us eunice >> reporter: thanks, andrew. not surprising to hear that. it looks as though musk had a productive trip in china after arriving in beijing on sunday. he met with the chinese leaders and soon after, tesla flagged the company had been approved by beijing at least in terms of the new data security regulations saying it is compliant this is in terms of collection as well as data storage and tesla is the only foreign

invested firm listed as compliant. local governments which put restrictions on tesla cars were lifting restrictions like i said, musk met with chinese leaders. that included the premier li the two discussed a.i. as well as autonomous driving as key to the future for evs the numerous reports we have been seeing now say tesla is getting close or has already gotten a tentative nod from beijing for the full self driver assistance software for beijing and the chinese tech giant baidu would provide the mapping data baidu and tesla are not commenting on that one of musk's goals is to get approval from beijing to allow that data collected here to be transferred overseas and then

used to train the algorithms for autonomous driving back home in that way, using the technology here and then, of course, making it more broadly available around the world guys >> okay. eunice yoon. by the way, before we let you go, what is the reaction in china to elon musk and tesla how is he viewed there right now? >> reporter: just from a population standpoint? people love him. it's on social media where people have been talking all about him. an lot of people talk about ho successful he has been the state reaction which is really clapping their hands saying he's great. in fact, one thing that was ironic was the state media which has been using him as an example saying that because he's so successful here and committed to china and this only dismisses

and proves that the criticism that the u.s. has and the west has of china's quote overcapacity is overhyped. in that way, he just gets a lot of attention when he comes here. >> eunice, before we let you go. i was worried when i saw the headline he is going to china, is this a moment of retribution from china with the issues of tiktok and how that is squarely in the news. has that become a real cloud over the u.s.? >> it probably isn't as much of a cloud as one might think based on the reaction we saw from secretary of state antony blinken's visit with president xi blinken said that tiktok did not come up in their conversations by doing so, i thought that really sent a message that china isn't as concerned about tiktok

and this is going to be worthy of posing or creating more tension with the united states in terms of the way that it is positioned and marketed, there is a boilerplate criticism of the u.s. and the u.s. market is closed off unlike the chinese market which the chinese say is very open. >> eunice yoon talking about political footballs. appreciate it. thank you. when we come back, the fed begins a two-day policy meeting tomorrow we will get you ready for that next reminder for you, you can get the best of "squawk box" in our podcast. follow squawk pod on your ri podcast app and listen anytime. we'll be right back.

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forecasters for the quarter and year steve liesman has more from the fed survey good morning, steve. >> reporter: becky, good morning. the cnbc fed survey showing forecasters after the numbers last week ratcheting up the outlook for q2 growth and 2024inflation. upgrading has been normal. this is the most substantial upgrade in a year. after weaker than expected gdp report, but stronger consumer data the respondents increased to 2.1 from 1.4 they transferred the miss from q1 into growth for the second quarter. inflation is seen above 3% above from 2.7% in the previous vur survey it is still above the target range of 2%.

for cpi, look for 2.5%. the recent run of higher inflation is just a blip and half say it is part of the longer-term stall and inflation progress to keep inflation stuck at 3% if the fed doesn't act there is some growing pessimism the fed can hit that target. richard bernstein writing in with the survey. few have yet to consider the secular pressures of deglobalization. it seems unlikely we will return to secular 2% inflation without the sustained period of growth unemployment seen rising from 3.8% to 4.1% by the end of the year 50% of respondents say the fed cannot hit the inflation target without growth running below potential and a .50% increase of employment rate. how much the economy has to weaken for the fed to hit the 2%

inflation target is one of the pressing questions of the central bank maybe we'll have a chat with that with chair powell next week becky. >> steve, this is interesting. you can have your cake and eat it, too. maybe it is not realistic. >> reporter: i think the idea of having to give up the cake or eating or the part of the cake is daunting on forecasters and daunting on the market as we get down to the level where it is harder and harder to push and get to the target. that is the question that raises the issue of the sacrifice ratio. how much does the fed want to give up to get to target will it sacrifice below trend growth or will it say 2.5% is good enough? >> steve, thank you. let's bring in somebody who has a good idea about it

former vice chairman roger ferguson now he is the vice chairman of the business council and cnbc contributor. roger, what do you think would the fed be willing to sacrifice unemployment and/or the economy in order to get to that inflation down all the way to 2%? >> i think the fed has no choice but to focus in on the 2% and if need be, engineer below trend growth and rise in unemployment. it depends on it to say anything else is leave open the inflation target which is unwise at this stage. >> which means you are expecting no cuts this year? >> for a period of time, i have been saying the odds of no cuts has gone up. i think now it is 50/50. the most recent flinflation data

has been disappointing headline or core things have been stalling. this is the third month in a row where inflation looks like it is moving sideways at a number distinctly above 2%. closer to 2.7% or 2.8% for core. i think 50/50. we we're not at any cuts this year. there is no market chatter of a hike that is not the likely outcom, but that is starting to get into the conversation >> bloomberg is looking to the impact of the powell dovish pivot in december of last year they came to the conclusion which we've known this was roughly the conclusion that the idea that equity markets picked up as a result, but they also put a number on it they think inflation picked up a .50% as a result from him talking about the possibility

for rate cuts. does that sound plausible to you and if that's the case, do you think chairman powell the will be more careful about what he says next? >> the chairman always has to be careful. it goes back to the earlier point we made. the 2% target is not rock solid. you risk unmooring of what has been established with inflation expectations that's a really important part of the game here one of the reasons i think we will hear a stronger tone about getting inflation to 2% is to keep financial conditions in check, so to speak importantly, they understand this, to maintain inflation expectations for a period of time that bloomberg study simply kwaun tquantifies that.

it drives inflation expectations. >> i missed the nuance the first time you said it you said you think chairman powell is going to be much more hawkish in his commentary this week and the markets better prepare? >> i think so. i think he's got to focus in on the reality that inflation has been running hot and i think he's clearly going to take the number of cuts down. this is not one of the meetings with the official dot plots. absolutely, he will push back on three cuts and push back on the notion of two cuts i think he will have to open the possibility of no cuts and all of that to maintain credibility around the 2%. >> i know you are not a markets expert, but do you think the market is anticipating that at this point or does this come as a bit of a surprise? >> i think the market has pushed back the initial expectation of a cut i think to november. i think they might still be

pricing in the possibility of two cuts a slightly more hawkish tone won't be a shock >> roger ferguson,thank you, sir. >> thank you coming up, sources he tell cnbc's alex sherman that para paramount's board may fire bob bakish as soon as this morning alex will join us after the break with the latest. . that's right james, it isn't. car, where are we going? we're here. (♪♪) surprise!!! the future isn't scary. not investing in it is. car, were you in on this? nothing gets by you james. nasdaq-100 innovators. one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com

my name is teresa barber. i was in the united states navy and i served overseas in the middle east and africa. early on in my career i had a commander that taught our suicide prevention training on a friday afternoon and the very next day, he took his own life. 90 percent of suicide attempts involving a gun are fatal. you don't know how much somebody can hide what's going on in their head. store your guns securely. help stop suicide. sources telling cnbc that paramount's board is preparing

to fire bob bakish as soon as this morning alex sherman has more. alex, tell us what you know. it is more about not being on board over what is happening merger wise. i think all media companies are not expecting great results. >> good morning, joe first, the news and we can get into the why behind it at some point today, paramount global is expected to announce bob bakish is stepping down as ceo. whether they say he is fired or forced to resign we have to see the language. the timing is fluid it will happen at some point during the day and before earnings the company happens to report earnings today at 4:30 in the afternoon after the bell in that announcement, there will likely be some language in the

interim transition plan to something -- >> i don't know what's happening here we will try to work on it. i think it is audio. because we had a picture of mr. bakish up. he's lost at this point, but we'll get to whether -- >> i had read alex's report, and what's interesting -- >> it's about the merger. >> what alex says in his reporting that's so interesting is that because bob backish has stood up and said he is not in favor of this merger because of what it could potentially mean for other shoulders that he has lost favor with sherry red stone and that may be the reason behind this move. >> right >> again, that's according to our very own alex sherman. maybe we can get him back. but that's what his report says. >> i guess we'll know at 4:00 whether the earnings probably wouldn't save him either way, but it's been tough. >> it is, and of a lot of

shareholders have been quite vocal on this issue as well. when we come back, a lot more on "squawk," congress is back in session this week. we'll talk about what's on the agenda with punch bowl's jake sherman when we come back. a beautiful live shot of the capitol this morning back after this. the future is not just going to happen. you have to make it. and if you want a successful business, all it takes is an idea, and now becomes the future. a future where you grew a dream into a reality.

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welcome back to "squawk box. congress is back in washington this week. joining us now on what to watch in the capital, jake asherman, a nbc news and msnbc political contributor. let's talk about mike johnson

his status and his ability t stay in the job and maybe excel at the job at this point >> i'm not sure about the latter maybe that's a little bit mean here's the reality, at some point in the next couple of days, we imagine marjorie taylor greene is going to ask on a vote for her resolution to boot johnson out of the speak herership democrats are likely to save him. now, i don't know how sustainable it is to have -- politically sustainable it is to have a republican speaker that's propped up by democrats. i just think that's a really difficult proposition for any leader, but we are finally out from under these big deadlines: there's no government funding deadline there's no ukraine aid deadline. mike johnson has a little bit more room to maneuver. >> in terms of maneuvering, what's on the docket i know there's an faa bill that's coming up what else is out there that he's going to have to actually push through or not >> so the government needs to be funded by the end of september

that's quite a ways away the faa bill is a huge -- a huge issue for mike johnson and for congress generally everybody's going to be trying to put all of their priorities into the faa bill. he has a farm bill, which sets the nation's agriculture policy, that needs to be done. they're trying to get the process moving there, but there is not a ton -- generally speaking, there's not a huge number of deadlines that johnson needs to meet. >> what is the reaction? i heard about it a little over the weekend. we talked about it on friday morning, that "wall street journal" report about the independence of the federal reserve and whether trump would try to upend that. have you heard about that issue from politicians in your world >> yes, but here's what i would say on that report and on trump generally, how members of congress read the news around trump. when there stores that run that say advisers are looking at or

people close to trump are looking at, it's tough to know whether trump has bought into that process, whether this is just people around him trying to take advantage of the vacuum of structure. there is no structure around trump. yes, there's always within movements on capitol hill among some to fiddle with the fed. i don't think anyone takes that specifically very seriously. >> there was another piece over the weekend that the biden administration is pushing for low rates leading up to the election because it would be probably politically -- >> you know what, how you do it matters quietly. >> what did trump do >> trump did it on twitter. >> i know he did it on twitter, this new story we don't know whether it's him -- >> it matters if you're doing things behind the scenes or in public just for the pressure that it puts on those officials

who are there. >> this is going to -- i want to talk about johnson for a second, and i guess we're in a cynical world where it doesn't help that if democrats voted to keep him in power that that's a sign of some type of -- i wouldn't call it bipartisanship, but at least working together on some things, and you said that's not a good way for a speaker to be, and republicans would never prop up nancy pelosi there's no way -- >> never. >> -- that would ever happen >> they better do this. >> if you were to help vanquish matt gaetz and the crazy 8, that's a contingent that is really mad that johnson would collaborate at all with democrats, but 80% of the country at one point was happy that this was happening. so is this absolutely not a good thing for mike johnson long-term that there's some just the

slightest bit of bipartisanship or cooperation is that definitely bad because of the right flank, it makes them so mad? >> my estimation is that it is bad. it is bad when a partisan party leader -- and i don't mean that he's more partisan than the next congressional leader but he is elected by his party and to have to go to democrats to prop you up is not -- it's not sustainable. >> but if the democrats don't back him, i mean, that would be kind of -- forget about ever having any bipartisan support again, right >> becky, it shows you that you shouldn't really be willing to take risks in the position they said if you put ukraine on the floor, we will figure out a way to keep you as speaker the political analysis or take here is that more chaos is good for democrats. you could argue it both ways >> hey, jake, what's your hot take on the president's --

president and collins jokes at the weekend. i heard a lot of people talking about the howard stern interview that biden gave on friday. >> it was pretty good. >> listen, i enjoy these things as i'm sure you deguys do as we. i thought there were funny moments. i think biden's strategy or the white house's streategy of going around newspaper, and howard stern was a huge audience probably makes a decent amount of sense he's trying to reach big audiences and i get that. >> jake sherman, appreciate it nice to see you this morning. it just past 7:00 a.m. on the east coast, and yes, you are watching "squawk box" here on cnbc i'm andrew ross sorkin with joe kernen and becky quick on a monday morning tesla's ceo elon musk making a surprise visit to china, the country removed restrictions on

tesla cars after vehicles passed the country's data security requirements and tesla's stock is moving higher in the premarket, about 8% higher right now. regulators seizinged troubled philadelphia bank republic first bank, selling it to regional lender fulton. ed bthe bank will open at its regularly scheduled hours. american airlines cutting long haul flights in the second half of this year and into early 2025 because of boeing's 787 dreamliner delays. checking the futures this morning, we've got a little bit of upwith ard momentum a big week for a lot of things let's get to contessa brewer with a look at this morning's premarket movers mostly online gambling sites >> no, i'm going to be much broader than that for you today. >> no kidding.

>> yes >> are you in las vegas to do this >> no, i'm right here in inglewood cliff. it's lovely, there's not the bells and whistles i get on the casino floor, joe, but you're going to like this you're going to hit the jackpot with these premarket movers. apple gets an upgrade. the fears over apple's china business is cyclical and not structural the analyst also believes apple is set up for a nice iphone 16 cycle because of generative ai features and replacement purchases, though it's a risk if those features aren't ready until later models or if a super app comes along that makes them unnecessary. bernstein maintains its price target at 190, and you can see in the premarket it's up almost 2% another analyst call from jeffries sending southwest airlines lower in the premarket by 1 1/3 percent the rationale, analysts worried about revenue growth and of course the major boeing elephant in the room.

southwest is underperforming in certain cities and recently it cut as m cut service to four destinations saying there are supply issues with boeing. domino's shares moving higher up 4.5% in the premarket after the company reported earnings that beat revenues. the pizza maker said increased marketing and targeted promotions have helped drive traffic and improve sales. shares up this morning 60% over the past year. becky. contessa, thank you very much making all the bells and whistles out there, as fears mount over the economy -- that the economy might be heading towards stagflation, our next guest says that the current economic scenario is nothing like the stagflationary environment of the late 1970s. for more on the market ahead of the busy week, we want to bring in ed yardeni, he is the

president of yardeni research. this idea that it's not going to be just like the 1970s stagflation is a pretty good one on a monday morning. makes us feel better about this being a monday, explain. >> i want you to feel better i think last week when we got the gdp report, the knee jerk reaction was that data was stagflationary because real gdp was up only 1.6% a lot of that was because we imported more, and we also saw this inventory accumulation. the final demand in the economy was still actually very, very strong in addition, there was concerns about the pickup in inflation during the first quarter i think some of it was kind of funky january, february effects, but we still do have a problem with the so-called super core inflation rate, which is the consumption deflator for services excluding energy and including -- excluding shelter that's kind of stuck around 3.5%

recently but i think that's going to come down one of the problems we have on the inflation side is auto related. auto related insurance, and repairs have been a real, real problem on the inflation side. i didn't know that there's much of the fed can do to repair your car or to offer you auto insurance, but that's bound to slow down. it's just been on fire for so long all in all, the economy's still doing well on a year-over-year basis, we're still seeing a moderating trend in inflation i don't think this is stagflation at all >> you also don't think that the markets are going to continue to melt up, though. that from your perspective is a good thing the idea that we may pause for a while here. >> yeah, just because i would like that doesn't mean it's going to happen. i actually was concerned that the market was going up too fast and that it was being led by the valuation multiple, and we got the forward p/e and the s&p 500 up to 21 now we're back down to about 20. so it hasn't been that much of a correction in the p/e, but i

wouldn't mind if the p/e just kind of stayed here for a while and it turns out to be an earnings-led bull market from here on. i think for now we could very well just pause. the market's still -- i think there's an expectation for two rate cuts still in the market. i think we need to be disabused of that notion i don't think there are going to be any rate cuts this year the market's also looking a year ahead and a year ahead sometime into next year, there could be a couple of rate cuts. >> what surprises me is you've got a pretty strong forecast, even though you're talking about a pause here, you've got a strong forecast for where the s&p will be for the end of this year, not to mention where it's going in 2025 and 2016 let's bring back the s&p 500 you can see how far we've come since november >> it's been extraordinary, and look, it's been my opinion since november of 2022 that we're in a bull market. the bull market had a nice run from that point through, you

know, last year, last august, and now we' saw a correction there for a little while then we made a vertical assent almost in the market it was feeling like a meltup scenario i think it's going to be a pause for a little while i think the underlying earnings story is a solid one i think the valuation multiple is a bit high, but i think earnings can lead this market up to 5,400 by the end of this year for the s&p 500, 6,000 next year and 6,500 by 2026. and '25 and '26 forecasts are not really all that bold when you look at the percent changes, they sound pretty good. >> they sound pretty good. i guess you're causing for a pause, not a pullback. would a big pullback surprise

you? >> we had a pullback really from the peak -- i guess on march 28th, we saw the market come down below the 50-day moving average, it was down 5.5%. i was thinking we could get a 5 to 10% kind of correction, not an official correction of 10% or more and i think we may very well have seen it, but i think from here on there's still a geopolitical uncertainties i know the market's suddenly acting as though all is well in the middle east and between russia and ukraine we know it's not maybe what the market figures out is that even if these situations continue to deteriorate, as long as the supply of oil isn't affected coming out of the hormuz, there's plenty of oil available even in a geopolitical crisis situation. >> great ed, thank you. ed yardeni >> thank you. kocoming up, elon musk maki

a surprise visit to china. we look at u.s. business ties and trade next and the shares of tesla are moving high they arer this morn. "squawk box" is coming right back

and they're all coming? those who are still with us, yes.

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tesla's ceo elon musk arriving in beijing for an unexpected meeting with premier li kang and chinese officials removed restrictions on tesla cars after the vehicles passed security requirements and beijing has tentatively approved full self-driving features joining us now with more on u.s./china business relations, leland miller, china beige book.

china had to sort of consider some different constituencies, i think, leland, right i mean, they're making and pushing more cars being built over there than really need to be built to keep things chugging along. so helping a competitor, not a domestic competitor to that market must have some other advantages for china >> i think they're just trying to keep elon in the game you know, for ten years or so starting in 2009, beijing created what was basically a protective cocoon over the ev industry there was enormous consumer subsidies, enormous producer subsidies. there was enormous protectionism. only chinese cars with a very few exceptions later on were subject to those subsidies so you had this buildout, government-supported industry. within ten years the industry became very impressive it's very technologically innovative, got these great cars, but you've got too many

companies, you've got too much production they're all producing. they need to go out, so you've got a price war in china right now, tesla's caught in the middle of that so tesla's got a big job ahead of them. they're trying to get -- not get caught in the cross fire >> right, so why would -- why would china want to help keep -- you just said keep tesla in the game, why do they want to keep them in the game >> i think they -- you know, you look at byd and others who are slashing prices and are absolutely, you know, have no focus whensatsoever on profits right now. they're losing money per cars in certain instances. they're not helping tesla, they're making sure tesla doesn't fade away into oblivion. tesla has enormous challenges as do all cars. i think right now this is about, you know, tweaking the regulatory situation, trying to keep elon relatively happy

amidst a price war he can't be very happy about. >> so they need elon, i guess that's my upon they need elon and they need tesla there. keeping him in the game, i don't know why they wouldn't want to crush tesla and have world domination of the ev market >> they may be on their way to that some of the technology that elon brings to the table is impressive he's got self-driving autonomous vehicle driving capabilities they want to put some new technology in the new teslas there that will make them somewhat autonomous there. is an upside for china to keep tesla in there competing against these domestic companies it creates for a more vibrant ecosystem. now that chinese companies have scaled up, they can compete very well i think they're comfortable having tesla compete right now. >> there's some glimmers of hope for china's overall economy, but april was not as good as march, was it are there now signs of emerging

weakness or is it three steps forward, two steps back? >> what we always tell people is one month -- march is a good month, but one month is not a trend, and so we have to make sure we understand what's happening underneath the hood into spring. we were first out of the gate saying march was good, q1 was going to beat expectations, but you're not seeing borrowing. as a matter of fact, the borrowing levels we're seeing on the corporate side are scary you're not seeing a jump in hiring, in investment, you're not seeing a vibrant recovery. there's some positives underneath the hood, properties looking better than last year because it was terrible last year, but it's just too early to think we're in the middle of any type of recovery we have to be looking very closely at the credit data for april. >> there's murmurs of a yen devaluation, that would be a major step that you don't think is in -- they don't think it's in their interest to do that right now, it would be destabilizing?

>> i think this is a hilarious debate 12 of the last two currency devaluations are called by, you know, currency traders they're very excited about the possibility you could see sudden movement the situation on the ground is not conducive to, you know, you do have a soft of the juan against the dollar you have a lot of dynamics that are putting pressure on the currency, but a currency devaluation would be an enormous action, and i think people looking at surging commodities inventories and divergent between the spot and the fix and saying oh, china's ready to do something. this would be an extraordinarily bold thing to do particularly in a presidential election year i don't think they want that right now. >> okay. all right, leland, thank you >> thank you. >> we're hearing about it but probably won't happen. inflation at the drive-through, we're talking about fast food prices this morning, which seem to be moving quicker for consumers than other

products and was will this begin to hurt sales? that is an important qstn, and we're going to answer it right after the break. in any business, you ride the line between numbers and people. what's right for the business and what's best for everyone who depends on it. solving today's challenges while creating future opportunities. it takes balance. cla - cpas, consultants, and wealth advisors. we'll get you there. you founded your kayak company because you love the ocean- not spreadsheets. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates

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welcome back to "squawk box," inflation has been running through the economy at all levels, but one sector has been vastly outpacing the rest. fast food. mcdonald's chipotle, starbucks have all raised prices in recent years. last quarter mcdonald's missed earnings expectations citing consumer pullback in spending. we're also going to be hearing from starbucks as well joining us now is b of a security's senior analyst. good morning to you. >> good morning. >> what do we think is happening here with the pricing and have these companies taken it too far? >> i think what we've seen is a lot of inflation over the last few years and the range of price increases has been wide, though, so some have, i think, pushed the envelope we talked about mcdonald's head 10% or more price increase on their menu last year they're probably running in the high single-digits now the year before that high

single-digits. we're talking about something like 30% in three years. they may be pushing the envelope because they do have a lower income consumer that they have to think about >> and how much of the pricing do you think is justified? i mean, this is a big sort of philosophical question that a lot of americans are thinking about right now. how much of it is justified, how much is how much can we ram through, when i say justified in terms of wages, commodity costs, the food product and the like versus what kind of margin can we actually squeeze here >> right so i do think by and large it is justified if you want to use that word, in terms of the underlying cost inflation that they have seen so labor inflation was quite elevated, especially in 2022 we all know food inflation has been very high, although it's coming down. and anybody who had exposure to beef was in a particularly difficult situation. so if you look at the franchisee restaurant level margins, it's not really elevated at this point. the issue is that some other restaurants have managed to maintain their line on pricing a little bit better. >> that's what i was going to ask, how is it that some of

these other restaurants and lest talk about which chains you think have done it and how they've been able to do it while the others haven't. >> you saw chipotle, right, had a fantastic quarter, very strong transaction growth they're presently running kind of low single-digit price on their menu, and a lot of it has been able to offset higher inflation. i mean, they have taken price for sure, but more efficiency. their throughput. >> avocados are so expensive these days. >> last year they were quite a bit of a tailwind. it's been a bumpy ride for aven avocados. >> that's what we've seen, the extent to which pricing is faster than the rest of the is there any. those are the companies that we're seeing a little bit more -- >> is california going to be -- i mean, when the labor finally flows through, are we going to even see much higher prices than the rest of the country? >> we've already started to see it >> how much higher >> so i'll use chipotle as an example, they said they were going to take prices 6 or 7% higher in california that's pretty typical.

we know the same thing is coming out of other restaurants that are out there, anywhere in that 6, 7, even a little wbit higher a lot of these restaurants are seeing their wage baskets, the minimum wage has gone up 20, 30%. actually, the underlying minimum wage is up even more than that many of them have already been paying above minimum wage, but in order to prevent sort of that wage compression, you're seeing them take their wages up quite a bit. >> what about starbucks? are we going to hear from them as well this week? >> starbucks, pricing doesn't seem to be their issue they have under priced a lot of the rest of the industry >> that's so interesting you think they've under priced the industry. >> people look at their latte or blended drink and they think this is expensive. a lot of why it's gone up so much is people are choosing to kuz customize, they're getting bigger sizes, they're adding syrup. last year it was 5, 6%, now it's

in that 2% range. >> do you like that stock? it's obviously come down it's been challenged, you know, howard schultz left, they're trying to fix things but at the same time there's probably $20 billion that have disappeared. >> we do like the tok. what we're seeing, the impact has been sort of a social media -- a lot of -- a lot of people's perceptions about starbucks have been dictated by some of the narrative that we've seen we think that's temporary. >> you think it's temporary? >> yes >> if you were to stack rank the companies out there you'd want to own. >> starbucks we view this as a buying opportunity it's hard to say when this will come to an end, but it will do that, and this is a great company with a global -- >> what about mickey d's. >> mcdonald's we're neutral. this is a tough year, there's pricing rolling off, the low income consumer is under pressure >> and with the cheaper

avocavocados zh , chipotle >> it's really hard to argue with those results. >> you don't follow domino's, do you? >> i do. >> how do they continue to do this >> yeah. >> how how? >> first of all, in a time when people are pifnching pennies, pizza is a great way to feed a family you really can't do it for less than that. >> to go back to chipotle -- the market cap for chipotle -- you don't think that's priced for perf perfection. >> if you look at the long runway they have, 7,000 stores in the u.s., it's clear they're in the very early stages of international growth, i feel like there is a lot of growth left in this company the valuation now does not reflect that. >> there's a serious multiple -- >> closing out on starbucks, do you think about the -- >> they got no problem raising prices. >> i mean, their value proposition is so strong at chipotle, the brand is strong.

the marketing has been great they're still really under penetrated. >> it's not fast food. it's like half hour food. >> they're getting beater. their peak throughput, 15 minutes they can do in the average store, 25. >> easy on the cilantro. you like cilantro? >> i love cilantro. >> you're either a cilantro person or you're not. >> very divisive >> my mother is watching she hates cilantro can't even be at the table with cilantro. >> me, mom, and dad. it's weird it's very weird. but i'm glad i like part of the sorkin -- >> and your daughter >> yeah, i know you like the family except for me thanks >> sarah, appreciate it. >> weird. >> oh, boy when we come back, the big question for potential home buyers, is it better to rent right now, and if you own a home, should you be selling? that's next. and we're going to talk about the future of tiktok with congressman raja krishnamoorthi who co-authored the bill to ban

or have bytedance sell the social media app "squawk box" will be right back. and using workday to put finance and h.r. on one platform. tim, you are a rock star. using responsible ai doesn't make you a rock star. it kinda does. you are not rock stars. (clears throat) okay. most of you are not rock stars. oooh. data driven insights, and large language models. oh, that's so rock roll. it is, right. he gets it. yeah.

if you were out house hunting over the weekend, you know how pricing and competitive the market is in some areas.

should you just keep renting or sell your house and rent what's going to cost you less in the long run, diana olick joins us, she's got some answers on that question. what do you think, diana >> the rent versus own mathewsed to play out very differently city to city but home ownership has become so expensive that renting a home is now cheaper than buying one in all 50 of the largest u.s. metro markets. that's according to a brand new report from bank rate which compared monthly mortgage payments to current rent payments the monthly mortgage payment for a median priced home, which is around $412,000, was $2,703 as of february of this year that includes property taxes and insurance. compare that to the national monthly rent of 1,979, which includes renters insurance so that's a 37% gap between the two of those but in 21 markets the fgap is 5% or more, those include san francisco, seattle, salt lake

city, austin, denver and dallas. cities with the smallest gap but still cheaper to rent include detroit, pittsburgh, philadelphia, cleveland, st. louis, and tampa these numbers are as of february when rates were actually slightly lower than they are today. rents have been easing as well despite rising demand, and that's because there's so much new supply coming on the market this year. multifamily starts, however, have dropped sharply once that play does get eaten up rents do rise. none of this includes home appreciation and the wealth you can grow through home ownership. >> it's cheaper for the moment, but you are throwing your money away on rent every month if you are an owner at least you're kind of paying yourself, assuming hat home itself doesn't lose a huge amount of value oaf the time, depends on how long you're going to be living in it. if you know you're there for a year or two, that's one thing. if you're thinking you're in that place permanently, you can buy and wait for rates to come

down and refinance when that happens too. >> right, you just made all the important points and that is also that, you know, we see rent monthly payments as throwing money away if you're in that position where you've just gotten out of school or you don't have a higher income or you don't have the down payment, then renting is going to be better for you in the long-term, home prices generally go up. we've seen them go down only nationally once. home prices generally go up. you're going to make money. >> if you think you're going to be in a place for a while. that would be the one caveat i would throw in with it thank you. it's a fascinating market right now. we appreciate you being there for all the twists and turns >> coming up, a wave of protests on college campuses spreading across the nation. we'll get into the campus wars and the rise of anti-semitism next with former s.c. .echairman jay clayton. "squawk box" will be right back. (♪♪)

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his coat was so soft, he had amazing energy. he was a completely different dog. it's a no-brainer that (remi) should have the most nutritious and delicious food possible. i'm investing in my dog's health and happiness. a wave of antiwar protests sweeping across the college campuses joining us now is jay clayton, a cnbc contributor and spent more than a decade teaching at penn at the university of pennsylvania and i know my friend, colleague who i actually do love and

cherish not just your family, you had a lot of stuff to say about this recently and what might be done. some pretty draconian ideas about -- >> i got a lot of love and a lot of hate over the weekend. >> take the mask off and know you're never going to be hired anywhere again if you continue this and you can get into that with him. my question just watching it happen, i've been around a while, i've been around in the '70s and '70s so i know college kids and i know protesting and i know how that works. i remember occupy wall street. i look at it now, and i'm just wondering how many of those people just are in the love with the idea of going out and express themselves, and how many really hate jewish people and are anti-semitic what is really behind all of this at this point >> well, i think you raise something that people aren't talking about. kids on college campuses, adults on college campuses, they do feel that the protesters of the '60s and '70s, i've been on

campus a long time, were heroes. they were people who sort of changed our society through the voting rights act, civil rights and the like and they're people to be revered, so you would like to style yourself as somebody who's going to change society for the good sure that is a sentiment hthat has been on college campuses it's a healthy sentiment do we have a healthy sentiment right now? absolutely not absolutely not when i was here after the hearings, i think it was in december, we talked about it look, if the only thing that happens here is liz mcgill and claudine gay get fired and what's going on on college campuses continues, it's a total waste. what has happened since then not a lot. what do we know, anti-semitism has deep roots on college campuses we now know that starkly we've got to do something about it >> that's 10, 15 years of hiring professors, administrators, how do they all find each other?

>> well, the oppressor oppressed culture is self-perpetuating that's another thing that we've learned about college campuses if you look at tenure decisions -- >> and israel represents in a nutshell an oppressor nation almost as -- israel and ferguson are the same thing, and i had to like think about that for a while. >> look, we have anti-semitism is age old, and then you have that coupled with israel and coupled with this oppressor, oppressed culture. it's a caldron for hate, and college leadership, we have a big problem, and we need to address it do you hear that >> the columbia university president back after nine9/11 s that terrorism and protests are part of the same thing so we already mu about her long before she was hired, so why hire her >> well, like i said, it's been self-perpetuating. >> let me ask zhao about the

r - ask you about the role of business in all of this. we talked about it on the air, about the role business could play in all of this both in the context of thinking about universities, frankly, as vendors in terms of employment you know, every university is hiring these students or not and not just about saying, okay, we're not going to hire, you know, those who are blatantly ant anti-semitic we woul never hire an executive search firm that had even one employee who was anti-semitic. the second somebody was anti-semitic or somebody who was against lgbt people publicly, you would say you know what, you guys are on ice completely until you fix the whole situation, and yes, it would hurt innocents, if you will, but it would probably create real pressure on the head of that executive siearch firm o the head of the administration of the university. the other students who have been sitting on the sidelines not

saying much either would start calling the administration and saying we're all getting hurt here by this situation because our entire brand is being impacted and we are going to struggle to get jobs if this situation doesn't get fixed. i would think you're an apollo, in private equity land, venture capital land, think about asset managers who manage the endowments of these universities that try to create performance what would happen if apollo called up the university of pennsylvania or columbia and said, you know what, guys? we don't want your money anymore. we're not managing your money until you get your act together. and by the way, it wouldn't be a totally crazy thing because the truth is the universities are typically sending you guys questionnaires saying what's your dei policy? what are your values, and if you don't -- no, if you don't fill up -- >> there's so much in what you're asking. >> if you don't fill out that form the way they like, they say we're not working with you either so i think that there's an opportunity actually for the

business community to use its influence. i know there's a lot of people -- i wrote this there were a lot of people who loved it and a lot of people who said, andrew you're taking it too far. i talked to a lot of business executives trying to think of what is the role of business in all of this. >> i will get to that. you bring up a very good point, universities have been very quick to criticize all of our other institutions and organizations about their behavior, their governance, their self-reflection. i think it's time to say to universities, and this could be for the business community, congress has done a great job here congress has shiened a light on the fact that there is no transparency around these types of issues at universities, no self-reflection, no reporting. if i were advising the fox committee on this, i would say you should be going out to all universities and asking these questions. what type of perspective, what type of representation do you have in your faculty

do you have a balanced faculty have you thought about it? what are you doing to deal with anti-semitism? are you fired anyone for anti-semitism? are you stepping up? on the business community, i don't think that you should ask every student -- i look at my students at penn, i don't think i should be standing in front of them while they're working 60 hours a week and say you know what you got to do, you've got to make those 1% protesters in the yard who are clearly people you don't even want to engage with, you got to change their behavior. >> i think that's fair the administration -- >> that's the administration's job, and they should stand up for those students they should stand up for those 90% of the students who want to learn. >> let me clarify what i'm suggesting here. i'm not saying it's the job of those students to go, a, change their mind i think we should also make a distinction between protesters writ large who may have policy views about what's going on in gaza and those who are blatantly

anti- anti-semitic, those who are harassing students, those who are engaged in violence. i think there's a major distinction. what i'm suggesting is those students at the school who are the innocents, uninvolved in this thing, they should be calling the administration and saying, this is crazy. we can't have this going on and, by the way, you have some of those students doing that because there are jews and others who have been harassed and they're calling on the administration to do something >> most students don't feel like -- >> i will say the fact that we are turning to the students to try and change the behavior shows just what a failure these administrations are. >> i don't disagree. what about business, though? what about all the wall street firms that do business with these universities >> i think the -- not as far as you said, not hiring no one from penn, not hiring no one from car cornell, but if a person is engaged in anti-semitic

behavior, as bill ackman said on your show, it's perfectly appropriate to say, you know what, they're enough of an adult at this stage that they should know better, particularly five months later >> right >> i can see people getting caught up in the euphoria of being a protester, trying to do right, but now that you have time to think about it here's another thing, have the universities really educated their students as to what is actually going on? or are they allowing outside groups where are the tents coming from? where's the funding coming from for what anybody who looks at this sees as incredibly skewed views of what's going on. >> i have a few ideas. >> it's kind of -- like step up. jay clayton, thank you we were supposed to stop five minutes ago, and we didn't >> we're out of time. >> it's a longer conversation as we like to say here. coming up, we're going to look at the multitrillion dollar elephant in the room for ngss that's the future of taxes when "squawk box" returns after this. rz i

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. president biden saying he was going to allow a portion of former president trump's tax cuts and jobs act to expire if he's elected again according to a new report out by the tax foundation, if the cuts expire, 62% of households would see a tax increase joining us right now with more on that report, scott hodges, president emeritus of the tax foundation where he's a senior policy analyst also with us at the table, robert frank good morning to you both scott, i'm gioing to start with you. what are the chances this expires outright and we're sitting with the tax policy as of 2017? >> i think it's very minimal i think some deal will be reached to balance the desire for more tax revenues because of the growing deficit and debt with the need to keep in place some of these tax cuts for middle and lower income people the president has already said that he would not raise taxes on anyone earning less than $400,000 a year.

so you can see that somewhere in there is probably a compromise between democrats and republicans. >> scott, that may be true and maybe robert wants to weigh in on that. we also heard his plans for capital gains taxes, which would move up basically double practically. >> more than double. >> more than double. >> what do you think the that a also throw salt into the mix of all of this? >> i think that's quite possible i think you see the demands on the -- >> which is quite possible capital gain taxes at 45%? >> certainly possibly up to 40%. which is where the president would like to see it at the top marginal tax rate of 39.6% add on to that the obamacare surtax and you're looking over 40% capital gains. he's promised in each of the budgets over the last couple years to raise the capital gains rate to the individual rate for those making over $1 million a year let's not forget, when you add on state taxes for some people

they pay a capital gains rate over 50%. >> and if republicans skip as well as congress wanting to extend all provisional tax cuts at least the next five, ten years. that's going to cost $3.5 trillion over the next decade, if they do that. they haven't said how they're going to pay for it. the republicans, just going to say, look, we care about the deficit until elected and then don't care about it anymore? or how would they pay for it >> a big question not answered as you say it's time we have that discussion. >> yeah. >> my colleagues at the tax foundation have been putting together a plan, which would be revenue neutral. meaning a balance between some base broadeners or tax increases to offset keeping those tax cuts in place permanently there are trade-offs in tax policy always, and oftentimes what tax policy giveth it takes away

so there are going to be balances trying to make the tax cuts permanent either higher deficits, by not paying for them. or through trade-offs through other tax policy to allow those to remain permanent. >> the democrats don't like to admit that the doubling of the standard deduction and the child tax credit are very popular among a wide group of voters they like to say this is only a tax cut for the rich, but everyone got a tax cut in 2017 and a lot of, most voters, like it so, you know, from perspective of the democrats, how would you allow those to continue and then pay for them i mean, either side, how would you allow those to continue and pay for them at the top? would you support a tax increase, let's say, going from 37 to 39.6 some give on capital gains what are your balancers you would propose? >> wouldn't be popular in new jersey or new york but eliminate

the s.a.l.t. deduction. >> what would that give us revenue-wise >> a couple hundred billion over the next decade allowing us to keep some tax rates at alower level. certainly in ways offset increasing or keeping in place the child tax credit, the higher standard deduction many democrats want to increase the child tax credit from $2,000 to $3,000, as it was during the covid era. and, of course, that's higher standard deduction, it's meant that about 90% of all taxpayers no longer have to itemize. a simplification for many americans. if we allow them to expire, many people have to itemize again >> there would be zero -- zero deduction. right now at least you get the $10,000. you get zero deduction a huge penalty for blue states because they're high tax states. >> looking at a few states

probably do it. >> absolutely. that much revenue from it. so -- stay tuned i think that's what's going to happen. >> wow. >> robert frank, thank you scott hodge, thank you. >> thanks. all right. when we come back, magnificent seven winners and losers plus an early look at amazon and apple. both reporting results this week, and the drama at paramount global is the ceo on the way out? that's the word. stay tuned for that and more when "squawk b" tus.oxrern

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all right. welcome back, everybody. big tech reacting after a big week of earnings next reports from amazon and apple still to come. joining us now ray wang, constellation research founder and chairman how are ya >> doing well. good morning. >> good morning. two biggies this week. amazon and apple what's riding? what happened? >> the apple sign decline in visionpro but a good india story and hopefully a.i. story emerging before worldwide developer conference cons, might see drops in phone sales. china, regulatory, headwinds hoping on them margins expected up. the a story is the one holding them down. they think that's what people are looking for. forecasting about $94.6 billion.

>> ryou're right at&t said the same holding off upgrading. you're getting that, too >> checks from that as well as suppliers. people are worried about a slower quarter on iphone sales overall. people are hoping developments, would go their way into, like a worldwide developer conference and announcement plans in the next weeks will start sharing the a.i. story rumors about how gemini and microsoft, google and gemini will be a part of the generative a.i. piece in the next set of os and affecting the stock. >> amazon? >> cloud business doing great. ads great. a capex benefit investing over $180 billion in the last cycle capex. seeing the benefit now a lot of growth coming there and the head business, talking almost $50 billion in ads for

the year they're the third largest digital ad player. sneaking through most people haven't realized that forecast about $142.5 billion on this. >> last week there was, as you mentioned, google and microsoft got credit for the cloud story, but meta hit really hard an overreaction or not >> major overreaction. meta will be one of the top players going forward. the reaction on the lab segment. investors upset still working on metaverse but something mark won't give up. >> what do you think in terms of the magnificent seven's ability to kind of lead things tougher this year? >> two caps in the mag seven double-digit growth, digitization models and a.i. story doing well china exposure, not doing as

well the fate for apple and tesla got to get past the china exposure conversation and whether they've got an a.i. story. >> you're a believer, though >> i'm a big believer. >> thank you >> hey thanks a lot. all right. it is -- >> don't wait six seconds. >> oh, come on >> it's -- do it >> 8:00 a.m. now on the east coast and you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc you heard. we want to be credible tell the truth i'm joe kernen it wasn't 8:00. >> coming up on 8:00. >> you are so swift. >> becky quick is here that one works coming up on 8:00. >> sometimes notice i say coming up on 8:00 sometimes say just past 8:00. >> which we did. >> at "squawk box," as it's rolling on okay among today's top stories tesla shares surging 10% following a surprise visit by ceo elon musk. "wall street journal" says chinese officials had told tesla

the government tentatively approved plans for the company to roll out advanced driver assistance functions. meanwhile, sources tell cnbc the board of entertainment giant paramount global is preparing to fire bob bakish, the ceo, as soon as this morning paramount apparently negotiate a possible merger with skydance media. and about to launch investigations into facebook and meta countering disinformation from russia, not doing enough according to the "financial times. meantime a quick look at futures. looking up this monday morning dow up about 68 points nasdaq opening 63 points s&p up 11 points treasurys. ten year sits just about 4.618 two yearnow at 4.975 hovering as it remains under 5. straight over to contessa brewer with a look at the pre-market

universe. >> shares of medical devicemaker philips soars this morning the company settled a lawsuit in the u.s. for less than expected. look at that up 40% in the pre-market the dutch company agreed to pay $1.1 billion for personal injury cases linked to the recall of some of its sleep apnea devices. the company did not have to admit any fault or liability and said the settlement would end the uncertainty over the litigation for that company. at&t shares a lift from an upgrade to overweight from barclays, which says there is a mismatch between the company's valuation and its improvement in its growth quality and execution. analysts point specifically to record-low rates of turner or customers dumping the service and its investment in fiber fueling subscriber before the market opens nearly 1%. shopify upgrade from citi increasing target to 105 from

$93. ecommerce resilient. shopify taking share of market plus launching new products and features which citi believes will go mainstream leading to even greater result in 2025. citi says shares off 20% from february highs this is a good entry point and right now shares look like they're up 3 1/3%. >> thank you. the next guest says the fed painted itself into a corner, and it's too soon to say the meeting will bring a cut or hike more on the equity fixed income markets as we await the fed's policy meeting this week we bring in from asset management to the table this morning. good morning. >> good morning. >> you think a hike potentially? >> realistically the bar for the fed making a move either way is pretty hot the bar for the fed hike is pretty high as opposed to them staying put. since they executed transitory

2.0 late last year when returning to the wishful thinking that inflation is moving down towards their target, i think they're now realizing in reality, the start for the economy, the neutral rate neither overly stimulative or inflationary is actually higher with a two handle on it probably a three handle on it. moving towards that realization, but ironically, for them to be able to cut, they need to be adamant about not cutting, and that's just not something they seem to be able to do. >> surprised there's not more volatility in the market given now at a point -- used to be we were either on one path or the other. thought either raise rates at a certain point and another point thought they'd cut rates now, like you just said, we don't even know. >> they doan even know adamant about cutting. look at data, returns from 2024 pulled them into 2023 and

inflation stickier what we're seeing, but this entire sort of journey has shown they don't really know what they're going to do. in terms of volatility, the equity market tried to look past that somewhat. rate expect aceations they're looking into earnings continue to beat bottom set plenty volatility right? seeing significant moves volatility seeing in the bond market i point out is on par with the bond levels saw pre-2008. >> difference between two and three doesn't sound like much. >> it is a very big difference. >> huge. over ten years buying power and what the dollar is worth, it's almost -- debilitating, what happens. stiglitz was on last week argues higher inflation is good what was the point what we pay back is less than, in future dollars, based on the

debt -- >> ways to get -- >> and the difference between two and three significant and three much worse. >> yes significant. very least our ten year is still very much priced for 2% world. i think even the market participants expecting cuts and even if we got cuts, in reality doesn't mean the long end rallies from here. because the long end is anchored to a 2% world. >> what would the ten year be looking at 3%? >> look at compilation of growth, inflation and some long-term premium, then the long-term premium, we speculate what it is growth and inflation gets us to 5% even with a weaker gdp number from last week right? our ten year it not there yet. ramifications moving from two to three long term or two to three quarters is still significant, not priced in, and has meaningful implications for prices across markets. >> just -- for those watching

saying, okay i hear all of this what am i supposed to do about it >> yes i think we are seeing resilience to earnings, which is a welcome development, and it's important to see if it's going to be shared by the technology sector. kind of led. we're definitely seeing it elsewhere in the equity market really constructive development. i think, really, the dilemma is for bond investor, because they've been trying to extend maturities, extend duration. right? move out on the yield curve with the hope that long rate will fall and generate returns. that's not the trade argument remains so much more uncertainty whether that long-term rate falls even in event of the cut stay shorter clip that 5% at two year nothing wrong with that. look for brushfires that will come up as the world impacts lower rated credit balance sheets definitely starting to

struggle. >> what is the unemployment rate if the fed gets to 2 on inflation? >> very significant. i think that's one of the hurdles, frankly, to the fed executing the kind of aggressive policy that would get us out. >> 6%? >> said between 6 and 7%. >> 6 and 7%? >> yes >> that becomes the question can anybody take the short-term pain to figure out what the long-term implications will be until the long-term implications are right here in front of us? >> correct also they didn't need to loosen conditions dramatically last year to restoke this inflationary bid now here we are. >> no one's doing this in an election year. >> a very important point. now that the june, possibly of a june cut is kind of off the table, right they're not going to move it -- in absence of something very, very dramatic happening, they're not moving around the eselection next is december

hard to say. >> thank you appreciate it. nice to see you. when we come back, what is next for tiktok? will the future of the chinese social media site be tied up in the courts congressman raja krishnamoorthi co-authored the bill to ban tiktok or have them sell the ad. "squawk box" is coming right back.

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xwshg welcome back to "squawk box" on a monday morning futures in the green dow up 70. nasdaq 72 points s&p up an 13 points. illinois democratic be congressman raja chris moorthy is speaking out why he co-authored the tiktok bill the president signed while he enjoys tiktok videos the u.s. is drawing a hard line against china using social media to control and potentially manipulate u.s. data congressman krishnamoorthi joins us, ranking member of select committee on china sir, thank you for being here. why don't you say what you're concerned about, what you think the risks are and what you think's happening right now as to why you wend at ahead with t

legislation? >> thanks for having me. there are two types of threats we are concerned about with tiktok one is that its owner, bytedance, which is controlled by the chinese communist party, has access to 170 million americans' user data secondly, that bytedance at the behest of the ccpcontrolling the algorithm and distorting content on the platform. after a lot of lobbying against the bill by bytedance, tiktok we came together cast the bill signed into law wednesday. now i'm hoping bytedance sells the platform to continue to operate in the u.s. >> so many things happened since. doesn't seem likely they will do an outright sale that have been reports floated that suggest if they did sell it they'd sell it without the algorithm and that would certainly raise questions what exactly it is, other than a user list of 170 million americans.

i do have one question you said you enjoy tiktok videos do you have it on your phone if you do, why if you're concerned about security issues? >> i don't have it on my phone i don't have it on our government devices on which its banned for everybody in congress and the federal government but i enjoy watching them on youtube or what have you, that our quarrel is notwith the platform or the types of videos or the -- the businesses that are advertising on tiktok. our problem is with the krocont of the ccp by that platform. that's a unique concern and why this legislation passed with such a huge margin. >> that is, you are concerned about the control they have or could potentially have >> both. >> just wondered you know things we don't probably have security clearance. do you think this is happening

right now? >> yes not only that, but the tiktok ceo has come to capitol hill repeatedly, testified before congress and made multiple misrepresentations about tiktok, its relation to bytedance and the ccp. give you two one he said american user data is not accessible to people in china. that turned out to be false. it's regularly accessed by people in china, eve unbeknownst to those in the usa. and he said none has ever been used against americans that is flat-out false we know in a well publicized example and bytedance conceded this is true they used it against journalists to surveil them. these journalists basically had been covering tiktok and in bytedance's view providing unfavorable coverage >> congressman, let me ask you a

separate question. one of the other authors of the bill, congress meng michael mccaul there are results he bought $150,000 worth of meta shares just about two weeks after this bill what do you make of that >> i have no idea, but that's why i have called for banning the trading of stocks. i and a bipartisan group of legislators have done so we should never have, trading of individual securities, because it raises questions like the one you just had. >> and just going back to becky's question i don't know if you can put any color on it. she was trying, given the security clearance issues and you don't think they're telling you the truth. but can you give us some detail, some explanation or something you think that the chinese government is doing currently that you believe is genuinely nefarious and threatens our

security, as opposed to something perspectively. top say that, yes, it's very possible i think in the future size and scale if the chinese government decided to use they could. i don't know if, that's something the tiktok ceo says couldn't happen. something that's happening today, right now >> sure. >> with the report piece when you talk about genuine national security threat >> sure. sure i'll mention three things. i'm not getting into classified information. just talk about published reports. published reports show that the ccp actually used user data hong kong protesters going after them following the hong kong protest. why numerous human rights grouped supported this. >> and what happened in the united states. i'm not defending the company. trying to just understand. >> sure. secondly, what we know is that in the run-up to the 2022 party

congress in china, basically the ccp inspected back end of user data including americans third, the american user is stored in china, again, not something conceded, last i'll just mention -- >> asking you a question using either the data or their scale in some kind of genuinely nefarious way today? an example of something -- not that they've collected the data. >> i will agree that if they've -- we've been told they're not storing that information there. if they are, i think it's open to anything the chinese government wants to do with it. >> can i point out something david hart in the "new york times" april 24 put out an article that basically illustrated how the content in the u.s. is distorted in a way that's favorable to the ccp hash tags, for instance -- >> and hamas, based on --

>> those affect americans. you can see that. >> some people disagree how hash tags even work, frankly, on that, on a relative basis to instagram and other -- i'm asking whether you're aware. not just a collective data where they used the information in a nefarious way where there's actual reporting, not from an outside study who looked at different things and decided what they thought. what you actually know, given, again, the security clearance that you have? >> yes i can't get into it, but can i point out one other thing? chris wray, our fbi director, basically said this particular concern screens out with national security concerns it's like a gun pointed at our head. >> i'm not telling you, you may be wrong. >> i don't want to wait for the trigger to be pulled we don't want the gun trigger pulled to understand there's a national security threat here.

>> you answered yes, do you know things, won't discuss it but you do know things that have been at place right now, not for the future >> yeah. and i -- i think this is something that has been discussed in classified settings that is in part why you have such a huge bipartisan coalition of folks can i just say two other things real quick you know, bytedance repeatedly says that they don't want to sell they also say they're going to initiate litigation. i think there are a couple factors that weigh against it. one is that, you know, there are people in the intelligence community salivating at the chance of litigation in this particular case. why? because they can conduct discovery against bytedance and learn the secrets with regard to its connections to the ccp that's got to weigh heavily on bytedance and ccp officials. secondly, i just have to say, right now this chinese economy, it's tanking at the same time

that xi jinping is trying to court foreign investors. sending the message he might potentially destroy their shareholder value by preventing the sale of tiktok, by bytedance. that's exactly the wrong message he'd want to send when trying to shore up his tanking economy. >> congressman, an interesting point, the discovery process kicked off if they litigate. which they said they're going to do. >> not only that, but competitors would learn secrets, too. >> this is an ongoing story. we appreciate your time, hope you come back. congressman krishnamoorthi. >> thank you. coming up, the squabble between paramount global first quarter results out today and speaking with bruce ratner talking about the state of the market as well as a new book about early cancer detection stay tuned

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paramount global reports first quarter results after the bell today even more important, maybe, than the latest numbers is what the company is saying about its future and julia boorstin joins us weighing in with more >> hey, joe. that's right a source close to the situation tells me skydance made its best and final offer to controlling share holder redstone yesterday and the board could out ceo bob bakish and announce a new leadership committee to replace him early as today expected to grow revenue to nearly triple earnings per share but investors most focused on the deal that controlling shareholder shari redstone will

or won't make for the economy. now in talks with a deal and if it goes through, ceo of the new company and former ceo and sending a letter to paramount global friday flagging concerns saying "we believe outside of shari redstone universal agreement among paramount shareholder skydance is a bad deal not ththeir interest. agreeing, i reiterate this deal stinks and looks as if it will close in may shari redstone has power to do whatever deal she wants. shares down since the news first broke shari redstone was looking to sell her stake. now sources tell me sony and apollo to commit their alternative proposals sometime

this week. other key thing we're watching now. paramount's negotiations with charter. they hope to secure payment increases for distribution of all channels that deal set to expire tomorrow they can't come to agreement paramount's networks will go dark and this charter deal will impact paramount's value joe? >> 30% down since that -- i think we need to see all the media companies and see prices -- it's just, i don't know why so high an idea what it says, but very difficult macro environment. they're all navigating at this point. >> certainly a different, difficult macro environment, but the question here is where would paramount's assets perform best? the argument for the skydance deal is that skydance controls 50% of some of paramount's most valuable franchises such as "top gun pea "a huge success and

question if you were to combine those assets, skydance has an animation studio that's been very successful. would that create more value there? also a question about what the future of streaming looks like, and paramount+ and also this ad-supported streaming option where that content and those streaming tools would be best deployed as well so getting a lot of news today and earnings, probably the least important and least interesting part of it. >> we'll hear about bakish this morning? >> i don't know, joe, but we're watching and ready for this. >> okay, julia, thanks coming up, what to watch from the federal reserve this week with the latest fomc kicking off tomorrow richard fisher joins us. heading to a break, check out shares of's aal. from bernstein upgrading stock

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the federal reserve set to kick off its latest policy meeting tomorrow months ago many in the market thought the fed would be ready to cut rates around this time, but things changed since then. joining us former dallas fed president richard fisher senior advisor at jefferies serves on a board of health care and warner brothers discovery and a cnbc contributor richard, good to see you especially onset earlier a couple things struck me we had objection zanna on from jpmorgan's i don't know if you saw that but we talked whether we're still going to cut, the fed will stay where they are, whether a rate hike could be, you know, in the offing. she said that when powell was sure we would be able to cut that was transitory 2.0 and she thinks getting down to 2% on inflation is going to be very

difficult. she also made the point that the difference between -- why don't we do 2 3/4. that is a big difference, and something the fed, i don't think, has any stomach for that led to the idea we made need to have a rise in unemployment to much higher levels for the fed to get this under control. >> now, joe, unemployment is still historically low 3.9% less than 4% when i was at the fed we thought 6% would trigger inflationary time times changed, technology advanced et cetera, but it's still a low number and the fact is the inflation fight is not easy so you'll remember on this show i used to ridicule the idea of six cuts, when stats first came out. and even cleethree cuts. >> right. >> i wouldn't be surprised

they'll announce something on the balance sheet reducing their treasury runoff, and that will get the economy to move in and of itself. i'm not sure we'll have two cuts, one cuts or no cuts rest of the year. no doubt it's leading to one to no cuts through the rest of the year we'll see. >> are we restrictive right now? >> i don't any according to financial markets. look at spreads and everything else, we don't seem to be terribly restrictive. >> then why move anything? >> you know me, i was hawkish. i would argue if still at the table, why do we need to do anything right now now, the balance sheet is a different story. everybody expects it to go down to $30 billion a month, rationally over time we'll see what they do, but running $60 billion a month on treasury regulation.

biggest are treasury options assuming rates may come down, if that's what you assume and here we are in the 5s that's expensive money, a year ago, a year and a half ago, when it's 2%. cost and carry's gone up big time. >> an excellent point and we don't talk enough about that. >> thank you, becky. >> we all wish that, maybe, the economy was free to do what it wanted to do and maybe the fed wasn't such a big part of our lives. >> right. >> but in general, in the last 10 to 15 years, has the fed made more correct decisions or have they caused some of our problems the reason i'm getting all of this to get to where we've been recently with political influence on the fed and whether there is some legitimate reasons to want to tailor this or legitimate reasons to try and get the fed to be more rules-based and less

seat of the pants. i'm not saying that president trump knows what the right thing to do is but i'm not saying that president biden, who would probably like lower rates too. i don't think anyone should be under the influence of the fed, but i don't think the fed is a great system either. >> i argued at the table of fomc, 0 cuts, keeping them too low, i levied against when i had them would end in in tears because distort price discovery. so rules-based is one thing. not what i'm hearing whoever wrote that paper for trump, i don't think has any sense of history whatsoever. everybody time we've had executive control over the fed or a central bank, argentina, by the way, arthur burn, disaster. >> yeah. >> now we see joe biden's staff is urging him to beat up on the fed. tell you this. i think i know jay powell very well as a friend he could care less.

it's kind of nice to have symmetrical beating up right? >> it is both sides then left with the foibles of, i mean, love jay powell or -- he is having gut feelings about what to do, which aren't always right. >> not just jay powell it's entire committee. >> the entire committee. >> remember, plotting their dots saying we might have three cuts. remember, every time powell has spoken about this he's says -- >> last time he said not ready but really close were we really close at that point? >> i think we're getting closer. >> able to cut why? >> it's not there yet. >> why are we getting closer the last mile seems harder >> it is hard and going to be really hard to get there and they're not going to deter -- no central banker in the world wants to get out of the 2% targets. because it undermines confidence you saet a hard rule and wiggle on it? not going to work. >> i don't know if you saw

professor stiglitz last week did you understand the inflation argument and why he said 4, 5%, really good. what we should be -- >> because of the cost of debt wha >> what he meant what i -- >> he wants to debase the debt joe's a lefty. face it. >> right. >> and so -- >> did you just use that in a disparaging way? >> well, i just think he's left of center. >> left of center. almost -- >> all the way around. another smart guy, but the idea that you would debase debt using inflation was a dangerous concept. >> okay. so in your heart of hearts, you don't think we're going to get a cut. do you this year? >> i think it's unlikely still possible. >> the market -- is that okay with the markets >> they have to learn how to discount things. the market's been living on free money forever. now it's a different ball game and i think a lot of

decision-makers still are saying, please, god, please, god, help me out. >> is unemployment going up? >> it should as the economy slows. right now we're still below 4% that's a good number. >> were you surprised at the gdp? >> see how it gets revised remember, that's the first report there are two more revisions we'll have to see. i don't see in my state. my state's growing rapidly, twice as rapidly as anybody else's. >> do you think then -- channel in -- again, do you think that, i don't know cnn says trump's up six. i don't know who they're talking to that was a poll. shows him up six, and number one, i don't think they want to report that. unless they thought maybe it would galvanize. >> they report it, because it's the truth! >> i love that joe is channeling you. >> here's how i'm channeling him. do you think if trump were, oh,

my god, if that were to happen. >> he's up in the polls. the man's up in the polls. >> heard they're tied. i almost yelled -- it's not tied it's not tied. it may be wrong but it's not tied. >> i was going to say. you have to believe the polls people. >> oh, yes, i do. >> now you believe the polls >> no, i don't >> this last -- >> way off. >> margin of error up six margin of error is eight. >> what are you saying >> so my question is, if that report was true that there's going to be this unholy pact with the next fed chairman to do whatever trump wants, who's going to take it worish, is he the -- >> the mistake trump made, made it clear when powell steps down 2026 they're going to put someone who's pliable. >> that's what -- who's going to accept that? >> and what that does undermines

confidence in the fed. it was a stupid report to release. >> make it look like they are now kowtowing. >> would anybody take it >> the second most important job -- >> do you think, meaning, the people you know on the list would take a -- >> i'm not sure i know who's on the list. >> secret understanding about the pliability >> no. say okay and do whatever they want. >> and martin did. promised truman easy money and then immediately countered that. served as longest serving chairman in history. >> didn't you try to talk him out of it at the time? >> jesse martin? i'm not that old, joe. i may be 75, but i'm not -- >> the 40s he's a young -- >> but i'm serious about this. >>waiting for an answer. whether you actually -- >> i think his staff made a horrible mistake said, whoever gets in -- >> we don't know who

crazy people. >> we'll see. >> as far as biden's concerns, brainerd has her eye on the job. we'll have to see. have to see. >> don't worry about it right now. >> all right >> that's 2026, becky. >> richard, thank you. >> thank you. when we come back, former new york real estate developer bruce ratner will join us. a reminder, this coming saturday is the berkshire hathaway annual meeting. warren buffett taking shareholders yquestions for five hours and we'll be there directing some of those questions to warren buffett. if you're a shareholder with a question, please, send it to berkshire esonqutis @cnbc.com. stay tuned we'll be right back. tailor-made for trader minds. go deeper with thinkorswim: our award-wining trading platforms. unlock support from the schwab trade desk,

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welcome back to "squawk box. our 23next gift joins us on spos and how the medical world deals with cancer. joining us, new york city real estate developer and talking off-camera about barclays new book "early detection: catching cancer when it is curable. we want to talk about that as well good morning. >> good morning. thank you for having me on. >> talk real estate first? >> of course. >> where are we? between commercial, residential real estate. you're not out of the business sort of in the business, out of the business, but maybe can speak freely >> i canfreely. >> what do you think >> commercial real estate. it's in terrible trouble you hear people say bottomed out. it's not got to bottom out when you have vacancy rates in a city of 25% and occupancy rates

of almost 50% or less than 50%, it can't recover because whole nature board changed. whether los angeles, new york, texas. your commercial buildings in general, talk about not new ones, are pretty much over. >> we've had a lot of your colleagues and peers come. say it's coming back don't worry. you're saying it's not >> how can it? used to be 11%, 12% vacancy was a disaster now work changed that is not looking like it's likely to change three day as week as opposed to five days a week law firms probably 20% of people come in. >> and throw congestion pricing taxes on top of that >> not compared to the real problem. the real problem is people not coming to work when you have that, if you will have a company where only, got

49% occupancy as opposed to vacancy. it's not coming back to think for a minute it is is actually just because -- >> investor class out there who's thinking if they're to agree with you. >> yeah. >> doing what? shorting commercial real estate reits? worried about banks? they should be, what >> slower process. banks i think generally will work out over a period of time take the buildings back or have them serviced and slowly but surely lose the buildings and have to do something someone will buy them very low price. either tear them out and build residential. it's going to take a while the one thing i've done is watch interest rates all my life here's what i say. interest rates go up very fast always as they do now. they dough down very slowly. that's what's happening. everybody thought interest rates will be way down by now. it's going to about few years.

you're faced with that people talk about it's bottomed out. maybe. but ain't going up a lot what would you do? i'm not a shorter. don't know much about shorting a third of price it was eight years ago. sl green they own 20 buildings in the city how do you go from two-thirds down, the stock, and not going up >> the point, you don't think going down further that's the question. some people say you can't fall off the floor. the flip side of it. >> heard that expression. >> i think i've done it. i did that. >> fell off the floor? >> in college i did it >> a different question. then get to this book. residential real estate. and where mortgage rates are today. a real question about mobility not talking about economic mobility talking just about physical mobility the decision to actually leave a home and some people are arguing now we'll be in this sort of

period of people being trapped. >> locked in. >> locked in >> it's a locked up phenomena. financing 3%, 4% not about to leave and go to 7% double your costs, your end costs. so people are going to stay where they are so that's housing. housing. obviously, rental is a whole different story. rental in the city, we have the lowest vacancy rate we've almost ever had, 1.5% we have a housing shortage in city of 2 to 300,000 units it's almost i believe possible to build a building today and make out that's not uncommon in many cities because people are renting more than they are buying >> if you were back in the business, if you will, what would you be doing right now >> residential, rental, residential, rental, residential, rental. >> developing? >> that's about all there is >> developing for that or trying to buy properties on the cheap >> i was a developer i don't know how to buy. i'm not a good buyer

i would develop. i would develop residential properties >> let's talk about this book, "early detection." what led you to do that? >> my brother died about eight years ago of cancer. he walked in one day, and all of a sudden, he had metastatic cancer, and he lived about eight months, and so i'm on the board of sloan kettering, i've been there for a couple decades, and when i talked to everybody there, i began to realize, when you have advanced cancers, you don't live you have about a 10% chance of survival you catch it early, you have about a 90% chance of survival, and basically, i had a science background once in my life, and i was a supeconsumer affairs commissioner, and i care about these things you must get early detection >> what kind of cancer was it that your brother had? >> they never really found out he woke up with metastatic disease. >> how do we check every cancer is different. definitely got to do the colonoscopy. i had a c.a.t. scan. you can do things, and you see

the littlest thing, and then you look at it six months later, and if it's still little, you're okay >> that's cold a low-dose ct scan it's for people who used to smoke. that test is granite, but only 5% of former heavy smokers use it we don't advertise it or educate people it's outrageous. we have this incredible test, as you point out, that can save your life. if you get lung cancer early, you've got a 90% chance. >> what about everything else? i don't want to get it here or here or here i wish there was one thing that we could test. >> there is one thing. first of all, there are tests for five different cancers that's about 45% of all cancer >> that's good >> let's talk about all the other 50, 60 cancers there is something called gallery grail, which is a company which has come out with a blood test you probably talked about this >> we've had them on the air to talk about it. >> they're great the answer is, that's really the future multicancer early detection

test, which can test for 50 cancers. >> with one -- >> where they're located, and it's really stage-shifting instead of catching stage iv, you catch it at stage i or ii. >> not perfect yet >> the problem is the false positives that you have. >> not true. here is what i hear. i hear everything. you know what? the problem is false negatives that's what we ought to work on. we ought to work on the cases where we don't find the cancer the false positive rate was 1% >> hard to get killed by a false positive >> outside of great places like sloan kettering, do doctors and hospitals know what to do with this information >> now you're talking about the most important thing called disparities. half of the book, at least, is about disparities. example. black women and white women get breast cancer at the same incidence, yet there's a 40% higher mortality for black women. washington, d.c., people on medicaid, 50% don't follow up after diagnosis.

we need patient advocators you're correct in saying the best places, obviously, do a better job than a tertiary hospital, and that's a very important thing. we have a fractionalized system in this country, which is really bad. i'll give you an example urology, prostate cancer the average urologist does only three prostate cancer operations a year, and you need to do probably 250 to be okay. >> bruce, any -- any hope that basic science finds either a genetic marker or a compound that would be involved in, let's say, metastasis, that is conserved across all cancers >> it has 50 years since nixon talked about cancer, and the mortality rate -- i remember 30 years ago, we've got a cure for breast cancer. it's a complex -- very complex

>> lot of diseases >> we want to thank you for coming in. the book is called "early detection. go get screened, everybody do it. >> we'll be right back power e*trade's easy to-use tools make complex trading less complicated. custom scans help you find new trading opportunities, while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market. e*trade from morgan stanley

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all right, welcome back, everybody. amazon, the first tech giant to report earnings this week, those earnings out tomorrow after the bell the bulls are setting their sights on the company's advertising business, and that's where we check in with kate rooney hi, kate >> good morning. there has been a lot of focus on aws and a.i. around amazon, but advertising is sort of a lesser talked-about, still core part of amazon's upside. analysts are factoring that into its move into tv-style commercials and then this new paid ad tier for prime they're charging $2.99 for ad-free livestreaming, live sports seen as a potential windfall prime will stream nfl next season it's also more ad spending ahead of the presidential election then, you've got advertising embedding ads on amazon's e-commerce platform. there's target keywords and sponsored shopping where certain products are placed higher in the fourth quarter ad revenue soared 26% year over year that was roughly double the

growth rate for the company's overall north america segment and aws sales. research, meanwhile, calculates amazon now makes up about 18% of total ad spend and expects the company to outgrow the broader industry as they're going to become a larger part of the revenue mix over the next three to five years. ubs, last week, upping its price target on amazon, citing in part the addition of that newer, high-margin revenue stream with prime video ads. they estimate advertising revenue is going to come in at $11 billion for this quarter that's pretty much in line with street estimates that would reflect about 6% of gross merchandise volume expectations, guys, also higher in the wake of some of the other big tech reports you had snap, microsoft, and alphabet all showing pretty strong demand for digital ads, guys back to you. >> kate, thank you very much we will be watching. and let's take a very quick look at the final check on the markets before we hand things over you'll see the futures are in the green, have been all morning. in fact, right now, the dow is

indicated up by about 75 s&p futures, up by 14, nasdaq up by close to 80 treasury markets have been sort of the same with yields. ten-year is 4.63%. of course, we do have that fed meeting coming this week, and that could change things folks, that does it for us today. make sure you join us right back here tomorrow. right now, it's time for "squawk on the street. ♪ good monday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer, david faber at post nine of the new york stock exchange coming off the best week and futures are solid ahead of a very busy few days apple and amazon earnings, a fed decision, a jobs number, ten-year, 4.63%. our road map begins with musk's surprise visit to china. tesla passing some key hurdles in that country, giving that stock a big surge in the premarket. plus, we will have the latest on those deal talks around paramount as well, the potential departure of the