cockapoo, rumble, but attention his cockapoo, rumble, but attention from everyone into doing in london. the next one is a rather distinguished spring a dog in cannock chase district. it looks like he is running for office. no barking at this next polling station, instead a couple of donkeys greeted voters casting their vote. finally, let's have a cat. this is the cat that greeted people at chertsey museum in surrey. that is pepper the cat. those are the animals at good evening. within the next few months, there will be a general election — you'll choose who leads the country for the next five years. but millions of you in england and wales have been voting today to decide who's in charge of roads, bins, care and crime where you live. those decisions make a huge difference to the communities round the country.

but they will give us a huge indicator of our politicians�* fortunes as we hurtle towards the big contest. the prime minister tried to look cheerful on the campaign trail. but he's been under the cosh for many months. if the results are gruesome, could rishi sunak�*sjob be at risk? will sir keir starmer be able to show convincing progress tonight? labour's been miles ahead in the national polls for months — though real life votes are what really count. ed davey and his army of activists want to call time on the tories. in how many parts of the country will they get their way? thousands of council seats are up for grabs, a by—election in blackpool, police commissioners are being chosen too, and there are elections for those powerful mayors around the country — it is the biggest test of public opinion before the general election. reeta chakrabarti will bring us

the numbers as the hours tick by. these are the seats at the main parties are defending. just under 1000 for the conservatives, and for labourjust 1000 for the conservatives, and for labour just over 1000 for the conservatives, and for labourjust over 400 for the lib dems. there are 640 local council seats and 35 english councils. there will be three police and crime commissioners and also that house of commons seat blackpool south. i will bringing you the result and looking at the figures and the trends behind them. of course, the nation's number cruncher professor sirjohn curtice will explain how the landscape is shaping up. 0ur political editor chris mason will tell us what that could mean. and top politicians from the parties will be with us in the studio — with smiles or brave faces as the night goes on. so, join us for election night on the bbc. the results are already coming in.

a very warm welcome to election night on the bbc — there is a dizzying array of contests to keep an eye on. each race is important in its own right, but in this feverish atmosphere in the months before a general election, the overall picture we can build as the night goes on is so vital. two important things to bear in mind. the last time these seats were fought was in 2021 when borisjohnson was in charge. and it's not so much election night, but election 48 hours — we'll know a lot, but not everything, by 6am — so much to talk about! 0ne one of the most important races as

the by—election result that pulls out, we will be there in a few minutes i will have a result this evening. we will be right in the country with our colleagues at the counts, and also with us, cabinet minister chris heaton harris, bridget phillipson who wants to be the next education secretary, and munira wilson her opposite number in the lib dems. who is feeling nervous and who is feeling chipper. but first, let's start with chris mason. just as we look at teachers of what are starting to come in in blackpool south, talk to us about what is at stake here for the prime minister and his colleagues. for the prime minister it is all about managing come in the short—term, to convince his own mps that he is definitively the person to take their party into the person to take their party into the general election. for those small number of quite vociferous conservative mps who are not of that view, they acknowledge privately, this is the last opportunity that they will have if the results are

poon they will have if the results are poor, bad for the conservatives, to convince their colleagues that this might be the moment to make a move. they acknowledge that they will have a persuasionjob they acknowledge that they will have a persuasion job to do that because of the magnitude, the nuclear option of the magnitude, the nuclear option of yet another change of prime minister. but that is what is at stake here in the very short—term for the prime minister, because it is the last chance before the general election for those who would like to see a change to make that argument and try and convince their colleagues of the merits of it. so if my saturday afternoon —— my saturday afternoon looks billy crystal, it will not be good for rishi sunak. in hartlepool —— if it looks really gruesome. the tories won a by—election in hateboer, heatly successful liver keir starmer and his colours, what does he have to show in places like this? it is and his colours, what does he have to show in places like this?- to show in places like this? it is a case study _ to show in places like this? it is a case study in _ to show in places like this? it is a case study in political _ to show in places like this? it is a case study in political change - to show in places like this? it is a case study in political change in l case study in political change in the relatively short—term over the last three years. i remember being there at half hartlepool. labour

lost, borisjohnson was in his pomp, there was a giant inflatable boris johnson that was paraded through the town on the day. johnson that was paraded through the town on the day-— town on the day. people rolling their eyes _ town on the day. people rolling their eyes at — town on the day. people rolling their eyes at that _ town on the day. people rolling their eyes at that particular - their eyes at that particular memory!— their eyes at that particular memo ! �* ,, ., ., , ., memory! and keir starmer was in real trouble. in memory! and keir starmer was in real trouble- in fact — memory! and keir starmer was in real trouble. in fact we _ memory! and keir starmer was in real trouble. in fact we have _ memory! and keir starmer was in real trouble. in fact we have learned - trouble. in fact we have learned since from a biography from tom baldwin and keir starmer that weekend came close to resigning as labour leader, that's how imperilled he was by the result. at the same time in that wider region, the tees valley, the conservatives won the mayoral race by! million miles. more than 70% of the vote. it's an indicator of how political fortunes shifted in the last few years. unfortunate for the labour party, they are looking notjust unfortunate for the labour party, they are looking not just at something that looks credible but is something that looks credible but is something that looks really convincing. we are seeing some picture there of a cancer in hampshire, that is in the sights of

labour so the whole pressure for labour, what do they want to happen? they have to be able to convince themselves and then shape a conversation that implies that they are en route to winning a general election. we have seen opinion polls for months on end with labouri million miles ahead but we should always emphasise the colossal mountain that labour are trying to climb at that general election, and as any politician will acknowledge, opinion polls, of course they matter, but real votes and real ballot boxes really matter. how does geographically the results tonight match? this is the same for all the parties. how does it match the key seats from general election? from labour this evening, they are —— their absolute emphasis is on blackpool south which they think they will win, the council elections from emphasising less, mayoral contests, conservatives equal and opposite on that with them leaning into, pointing at those mayoral contests are something they say

suggests their fate is contests are something they say suggests theirfate is not contests are something they say suggests their fate is not as grim as feared. i suggests their fate is not as grim as feared. ., , ~ suggests their fate is not as grim as feared. . , ~ ., suggests their fate is not as grim as feared. . w ., , as feared. i will ask later but the smaller parties _ as feared. i will ask later but the smaller parties offer _ as feared. i will ask later but the smaller parties offer but - as feared. i will ask later but the smaller parties offer but let's - as feared. i will ask later but the smaller parties offer but let's go | smaller parties offer but let's go straight to blackpool south, where labour are emphasising that they are hopeful of success tonight. that seat is up for grabs because the former conservative mp scott benton had to quit in disgrace, really. helen catt is there for us. what are the prospects for this result? it’s the prospects for this result? it's not “ust the prospects for this result? it�*s notjust labour who are confident that this seat is turning red tomorrow. they are certainly confident of winning it but speaking to the other parties here, they are pretty sure it's going to be a labour win too. so the focus really is on what the scale of that will be. labourare hoping is on what the scale of that will be. labour are hoping for something above a 12.5% swing because they say that would translate into a majority at the general election. there is also a lot of focus on how reform perform here. the brexit party came third here in 2019, about 6% of the

vote and it looks like they are on course to do better than that this time. they believe they have had a pretty good day at the polling stations today, but as there may have had perhaps in the postal ballots. eitherthey have had perhaps in the postal ballots. either they nor the conservatives at this stage think they have done enough to put the conservatives turn into third place. they are privately acknowledging, the tories, that they think they have lost it but they think they will come in second. at the moment it is very difficult to tell. what it is very difficult to tell. what kind of time _ it is very difficult to tell. what kind of time do _ it is very difficult to tell. what kind of time do you _ it is very difficult to tell. what kind of time do you think- it is very difficult to tell. what kind of time do you think the l it is very difficult to tell. what kind of time do you think the result will come in their? and any indication of turnout? ihla will come in their? and any indication of turnout? no indication of turnout yet _ indication of turnout? no indication of turnout yet but _ indication of turnout? no indication of turnout yet but certainly, - of turnout yet but certainly, various party sources i have spoken to have been worried that turnout could be quite low here. they say there was a bit of a background of that. so we don't have the turnout yet in in fact the count hasn't even started, we have all the ballot boxes but verification is still happening so we haven't yet got into the counting. the original time frame we were given for a

declaration or something between 2am and 5am, think they were thinking it might fall more in the middle of that but until the counting is under way we can't give you better picture of that. ., ~ way we can't give you better picture of that. ., ,, , ., ., way we can't give you better picture of that. . ~' , ., ., ., of that. helen, thank you for now and we will _ of that. helen, thank you for now and we will be _ of that. helen, thank you for now and we will be back— of that. helen, thank you for now and we will be back with - of that. helen, thank you for now and we will be back with you - of that. helen, thank you for now i and we will be back with you shortly through the night. helen they are being very clear that labour and the tories whispering that they think the seat has gone to labour and the conservatives acknowledging that they expect to lose that seat. we will talk to our politicians about that in a couple of minutes. reeta, let's think about these council elections because they are right across england, they are not in wales, northern ireland or scotland. progress through the ones we will have our eyes on.— progress through the ones we will have our eyes on. quite a few coming in, but of -- — have our eyes on. quite a few coming in, but of -- about _ have our eyes on. quite a few coming in, but of -- about a _ have our eyes on. quite a few coming in, but of -- about a third _ have our eyes on. quite a few coming in, but of -- about a third of - have our eyes on. quite a few coming in, but of -- about a third of all - in, but of —— about a third of all the councils are counting on these are some of the ones we will be keeping an eye on. we have arranged them in terms of which of the main parties were defending which counsel. underthe parties were defending which counsel. under the conservatives, reading is the most marginal. they have a majority of three. redditch,

beg your pardon. it is in the west midlands and that is being heavily targeted by labour. rushmore and hampshire, this has been conservative since the start of the century, since 2000 but labour have been nibbling away at conservative support there, and labour got five seats there last year. so we will be watching that carefully. in harlow in essex, the conservatives took this from labour, so can labour take the fight back this time round? under the labour column, 0ldham the fight back this time round? underthe labour column, 0ldham is the most marginal labour council, and we will be watching 0ldham with and we will be watching 0ldham with a lot of interest, because we are waiting to see whether the leadership's policy on gaza will have some effect. you will remember that in neighbouring rochdale and the by—election, labour lost a lot of support and went on to lose the by—election, it was thought largely because of that reason. so we will because of that reason. so we will be looking at lincoln, 0ldham,

reading, exeter, interesting contests. forthe reading, exeter, interesting contests. for the lib dems, hull is a lib dem labourfight. quite a fight on their hands to hang on. winchester, eastleigh and gosport, all in hampshire, and gosport is the lib dems' most marginal can sell. so let us see what happens there. in terms of the home councils, these are where there is no one party in overall control, this might be the most exciting, because most of the councils tonight are up in thirds, which means it is only one of three seats that's being counted. so it's quite difficult for a council to change hands. but how can a hung council is by its nature volatile. what will happen in hartlepool? labour targeting that's strongly. they lost to the conservatives in 2021. they are short by two seats

for a majority in hartlepool. they are short by six in thurrock, that is a straight labour conservative fight, the conservatives are two seats short of a majority there. for the lib dems, there targeting portsmouth and also stockport in greater manchester. so a lot of results to come in and we will bring them to you as they do.— results to come in and we will bring them to you as they do. reeta, thank ou. a them to you as they do. reeta, thank you- a good — them to you as they do. reeta, thank you. a good reminder _ them to you as they do. reeta, thank you. a good reminder of _ them to you as they do. reeta, thank you. a good reminder of how- you. a good reminder of how complicated jigsaw this is. especially in an election year, every single counsel you have talk about, every single seat so important for parties to enthuse their foot soldiers be able to get them pounding the pavements. let's turn now to our politicians. talking about blackpool south, we heard from helen on the ground there that conservative sources and labour sources on the ground are acknowledging that the conservatives have lost the seat, are you ready to acknowledge that, chris? i have lost the seat, are you ready to acknowledge that, chris?— acknowledge that, chris? ithink it's definitely _ acknowledge that, chris? ithink it's definitely a _ acknowledge that, chris? ithink it's definitely a tough _ acknowledge that, chris? ithink it's definitely a tough seat - acknowledge that, chris? ithink it's definitely a tough seat for. acknowledge that, chris? ithink it's definitely a tough seat for us to hold. when you lose an mp who has

disgraced themselves and has potentially been thrown out of parliament and then been recalled by his constituents, i think highly unlikely to be rewarded by the electorate, who do not like by—elections, but because of a failing light that, yes, i have to say from the very start i would have expected to lose. but we have a really good candidate in david jones, he has worked his socks off in that seat to demonstrate what a good conservative mp he can be. in terms of tonight, ready to acknowledge what you're hearing, no other phones have been buzzing, actually is pretty much... xyour actually is pretty much... your floor manager _ actually is pretty much... your floor manager told _ actually is pretty much... your floor manager told us - actually is pretty much... your floor manager told us to - actually is pretty much... your floor manager told us to turn l actually is pretty much... wm." floor manager told us to turn them off! , ., ., off! there is real life and then there politics. _ off! there is real life and then there politics. i— off! there is real life and then there politics. i haven't - off! there is real life and then there politics. i haven't had i off! there is real life and then - there politics. i haven't had many indications _ there politics. i haven't had many indications other _ there politics. i haven't had many indications other than _ there politics. i haven't had many indications other than the - there politics. i haven't had many indications other than the once i there politics. i haven't had many. indications other than the once you have had. i’m indications other than the once you have had. �* . .. , have had. i'm hearing exactly the same. have had. i'm hearing exactly the same- bridget — have had. i'm hearing exactly the same. bridget phillipson, - have had. i'm hearing exactly the same. bridget phillipson, you - have had. i'm hearing exactly thej same. bridget phillipson, you are letting at an early smile. tote

same. bridget phillipson, you are letting at an early smile.- same. bridget phillipson, you are letting at an early smile. we foot a really strong _ letting at an early smile. we foot a really strong campaign, _ letting at an early smile. we foot a really strong campaign, it - letting at an early smile. we foot a really strong campaign, it was - letting at an early smile. we foot a | really strong campaign, it was clear knocking _ really strong campaign, it was clear knocking on— really strong campaign, it was clear knocking on doors, i had spoken to lots of— knocking on doors, i had spoken to lots of people, there was a real appetite — lots of people, there was a real appetite for change. some of the frustration voters have is that they are not— frustration voters have is that they are not getting a general election on the _ are not getting a general election on the same day because there is a mood _ on the same day because there is a mood across — on the same day because there is a mood across the country that people want the _ mood across the country that people want the chance to have their say in terms _ want the chance to have their say in terms of— want the chance to have their say in terms of who gets to govern the country — terms of who gets to govern the country as— terms of who gets to govern the country as well as these important elections _ country as well as these important elections we are talking about. in elections we are talking about. in terms elections we are talking about. terms of elections we are talking about. in terms of the size of the change, can you give us an indication? in by—elections recently, labour have been getting huge swings of over 20%, is that the kind of level you will be expecting?— 20%, is that the kind of level you will be expecting? those were among the bi est will be expecting? those were among the biggest we _ will be expecting? those were among the biggest we have _ will be expecting? those were among the biggest we have ever _ will be expecting? those were among the biggest we have ever had - will be expecting? those were among the biggest we have ever had in - the biggest we have ever had in england — the biggest we have ever had in england so it would be quite something for us are not in that kind _ something for us are not in that kind of— something for us are not in that kind of ballpark, we don't need to be either— kind of ballpark, we don't need to be either because the swings we had in some _ be either because the swings we had in some of— be either because the swings we had in some of those by—elections earlier— in some of those by—elections earlier this year have been amongst the biggest in the post—war period. they really— the biggest in the post—war period. they really were quite extraordinary results _ they really were quite extraordinary results in _ they really were quite extraordinary results in very traditional conservative seats. blackpool south,

froth was _ conservative seats. blackpool south, froth was held by labour until 2019, it has— froth was held by labour until 2019, it has for— froth was held by labour until 2019, it has for the majority of time it has existed as a seat had a conservative mp so if we are making progress _ conservative mp so if we are making progress there and taking blackpool south _ progress there and taking blackpool south tonight and i hope we do, that puts us— south tonight and i hope we do, that puts us on— south tonight and i hope we do, that puts us on a — south tonight and i hope we do, that puts us on a really firm footing going — puts us on a really firm footing going into _ puts us on a really firm footing going into the general election. | going into the general election. should going into the general election. i should say, richard, that seat was held from 1997, so it was a labour seat for a long time. if the national opinion polls are correct and you are miles ahead as they suggest, that seat should be a no—brainer. but suggest, that seat should be a no-brainer-_ suggest, that seat should be a no-brainer. �* ., , ., no-brainer. but for the rest of the time before _ no-brainer. but for the rest of the time before that _ no-brainer. but for the rest of the time before that it _ no-brainer. but for the rest of the time before that it was _ no-brainer. but for the rest of the time before that it was a - time before that it was a conservative seat, then we lost it in 2019 _ conservative seat, then we lost it in 2019 i'm — conservative seat, then we lost it in 2019. i'm hopeful that we are making — in 2019. i'm hopeful that we are making progress in the areas like blackpool — making progress in the areas like blackpool but across the country as results _ blackpool but across the country as results come in, the kind of places we will— results come in, the kind of places we will need to win in order to form a majority~ — we will need to win in order to form a majority. that's what i will be looking — a majority. that's what i will be looking for. this about the numbers of seats, _ looking for. this about the numbers of seats, more about places we are making _ of seats, more about places we are

making progress. of seats, more about places we are making progress-— making progress. sometimes when oliticians making progress. sometimes when politicians say _ making progress. sometimes when politicians say less _ making progress. sometimes when politicians say less about _ making progress. sometimes when politicians say less about the - politicians say less about the numbers, what they mean is they are not sure if they are making really hefty gains. for the lib dems to motor is a good night for you? this time last year, the lib dems had a really successful time. this year, what do you think the prospects are? we made a spectacle —— max particular— we made a spectacle —— max particular gains— we made a spectacle —— max particular gains last - we made a spectacle —— max particular gains last year - we made a spectacle —— max particular gains last year but| we made a spectacle —— max. particular gains last year but we have _ particular gains last year but we have to — particular gains last year but we have to remember— particular gains last year but we have to remember there - particular gains last year but we have to remember there are - particular gains last year but we i have to remember there are three times— have to remember there are three times fewer— have to remember there are three times fewer seats _ have to remember there are three times fewer seats up _ have to remember there are three times fewer seats up for - have to remember there are three times fewer seats up for election. times fewer seats up for election this year~ — times fewer seats up for election this year~ and _ times fewer seats up for election this year. and actually, - times fewer seats up for election this year. and actually, the - times fewer seats up for election this year. and actually, the mix. times fewer seats up for election. this year. and actually, the mix of seats— this year. and actually, the mix of seats up— this year. and actually, the mix of seats up for— this year. and actually, the mix of seats up for election _ this year. and actually, the mix of seats up for election this - this year. and actually, the mix of seats up for election this year- this year. and actually, the mix of seats up for election this year are | seats up for election this year are really— seats up for election this year are really in _ seats up for election this year are really in those _ seats up for election this year are really in those red _ seats up for election this year are really in those red wall— really in those red wall territories, _ really in those red wall territories, there - really in those red wall territories, there are i really in those red wall- territories, there are largely conservative _ territories, there are largely conservative and _ territories, there are largely conservative and labour - territories, there are largely. conservative and labour fights. territories, there are largely- conservative and labour fights. we ekpect— conservative and labour fights. we expect to _ conservative and labour fights. we expect to see — conservative and labour fights. we expect to see labour— conservative and labour fights. we expect to see labour great - conservative and labour fights. we expect to see labour great gains. i conservative and labour fights. we i expect to see labour great gains. we are hoping _ expect to see labour great gains. we are hoping to — expect to see labour great gains. we are hoping to consolidate _ expect to see labour great gains. we are hoping to consolidate and - expect to see labour great gains. we are hoping to consolidate and make i are hoping to consolidate and make gains _ are hoping to consolidate and make gains in _ are hoping to consolidate and make gains in the — are hoping to consolidate and make gains in the blue _ are hoping to consolidate and make gains in the blue wall, _ are hoping to consolidate and make gains in the blue wall, the - are hoping to consolidate and make gains in the blue wall, the areas - are hoping to consolidate and make gains in the blue wall, the areas we are targeting — gains in the blue wall, the areas we are targeting for _ gains in the blue wall, the areas we are targeting for the _ gains in the blue wall, the areas we are targeting for the general- are targeting for the general election— are targeting for the general election later— are targeting for the general election later this— are targeting for the general election later this year. - are targeting for the general election later this year. a i are targeting for the general| election later this year. a lot are targeting for the general. election later this year. a lot of this will— election later this year. a lot of this will not _ election later this year. a lot of this will not be _ election later this year. a lot of this will not be coming - election later this year. a lot of this will not be coming in- election later this year. a lot of this will not be coming in untill this will not be coming in until tomorrow _ this will not be coming in until tomorrow. you _ this will not be coming in until tomorrow. you think - this will not be coming in until tomorrow. you think about. this will not be coming in until- tomorrow. you think about dominic raah's _ tomorrow. you think about dominic raah's hack— tomorrow. you think about dominic raah's back yard. _ tomorrow. you think about dominic raab's back yard, elmbridge, - tomorrow. you think about dominic raab's back yard, elmbridge, and i raab's back yard, elmbridge, and john redwood's _ raab's back yard, elmbridge, and john redwood's back— raab's back yard, elmbridge, and john redwood's back yard - raab's back yard, elmbridge, and john redwood's back yard in- raab's back yard, elmbridge, and i john redwood's back yard in booking and, john redwood's back yard in booking and. places— john redwood's back yard in booking and. places like _ john redwood's back yard in booking and, places like tunbridge _ john redwood's back yard in booking and, places like tunbridge wells, . and, places like tunbridge wells, which _ and, places like tunbridge wells, which we — and, places like tunbridge wells, which we hoped _ and, places like tunbridge wells, which we hoped to _ and, places like tunbridge wells, which we hoped to make - and, places like tunbridge wells, which we hoped to make gains. and, places like tunbridge wells, which we hoped to make gains in| and, places like tunbridge wells, i which we hoped to make gains in a potentially — which we hoped to make gains in a potentially take _ which we hoped to make gains in a potentially take control _

which we hoped to make gains in a potentially take control of, - which we hoped to make gains in a potentially take control of, all- potentially take control of, all those — potentially take control of, all those will _ potentially take control of, all those will be _ potentially take control of, all those will be coming - potentially take control of, all those will be coming in - potentially take control of, all. those will be coming in tomorrow potentially take control of, all- those will be coming in tomorrow and we will— those will be coming in tomorrow and we will he _ those will be coming in tomorrow and we will be looking _ those will be coming in tomorrow and we will be looking very _ those will be coming in tomorrow and we will be looking very closely - those will be coming in tomorrow and we will be looking very closely at - we will be looking very closely at those _ we will be looking very closely at those because _ we will be looking very closely at those because we _ we will be looking very closely at those because we will— we will be looking very closely at those because we will be - we will be looking very closely at those because we will be very i we will be looking very closely at i those because we will be very keen to make _ those because we will be very keen to make gains— those because we will be very keen to make gains in— those because we will be very keen to make gains in those _ those because we will be very keen to make gains in those areas - those because we will be very keen| to make gains in those areas where we hope _ to make gains in those areas where we hope to— to make gains in those areas where we hope to take _ to make gains in those areas where we hope to take conservative - to make gains in those areas where we hope to take conservative seats| we hope to take conservative seats at the _ we hope to take conservative seats at the general— we hope to take conservative seats at the general election. _ we hope to take conservative seats at the general election. but - we hope to take conservative seats at the general election.— at the general election. but do you have a sense _ at the general election. but do you have a sense yet, _ at the general election. but do you have a sense yet, i'm _ at the general election. but do you have a sense yet, i'm sure - at the general election. but do you have a sense yet, i'm sure you - at the general election. but do you have a sense yet, i'm sure you are | have a sense yet, i'm sure you are on the doorsteps today and to colleagues and activists, do you have a sense yet that you're able to make a big stride forward in the way you did last year? there may be only a couple of months from a general election, surely you have to be showing you can punch through? tote showing you can punch through? we certainly do hope to make gains in those _ certainly do hope to make gains in those areas — certainly do hope to make gains in those areas that _ certainly do hope to make gains in those areas that we _ certainly do hope to make gains in those areas that we are _ certainly do hope to make gains in those areas that we are looking i certainly do hope to make gains in those areas that we are looking toj those areas that we are looking to -ain those areas that we are looking to gain that — those areas that we are looking to gain that the — those areas that we are looking to gain that the general _ those areas that we are looking to gain that the general election. - those areas that we are looking to gain that the general election. atl gain that the general election. at this stage — gain that the general election. at this stage it— gain that the general election. at this stage it is— gain that the general election. at this stage it is too— gain that the general election. at this stage it is too early- gain that the general election. at this stage it is too early to - gain that the general election. at this stage it is too early to give i this stage it is too early to give an indication _ this stage it is too early to give an indication because - this stage it is too early to give an indication because most- this stage it is too early to give an indication because most of. this stage it is too early to give - an indication because most of those areas _ an indication because most of those areas are _ an indication because most of those areas are not— an indication because most of those areas are not counting _ an indication because most of those areas are not counting until- areas are not counting until tomorrow _ areas are not counting until tomorrow a _ areas are not counting until tomorrow. a lot _ areas are not counting until tomorrow. a lot of- areas are not counting until tomorrow. a lot of those i areas are not counting until- tomorrow. a lot of those labour dominated — tomorrow. a lot of those labour dominated areas _ tomorrow. a lot of those labour dominated areas that _ tomorrow. a lot of those labour dominated areas that are - tomorrow. a lot of those labour. dominated areas that are counting overnight — dominated areas that are counting overniaht. . ., dominated areas that are counting overniaht. . . , overnight. have all said it is true that we are _ overnight. have all said it is true that we are very _ overnight. have all said it is true that we are very early _ overnight. have all said it is true that we are very early in - overnight. have all said it is true that we are very early in the - overnight. have all said it is true l that we are very early in the night, but where better to hear it on the ground? we going to take you to two different counts. first of all to harlow and my colleague simon dedman

is there. simon, thanks forjoining us. harlow is really the kind of place where labour needs to be showing progress. tell us what's been going on there. absolutely. this lace been going on there. absolutely. this place has — been going on there. absolutely. this place has been _ been going on there. absolutely. this place has been a _ been going on there. absolutely. this place has been a classic - this place has been a classic bellwether for 40 years. whoever has won the seat at westminster has gone on to take the keys to number 10 downing street and at the moment the mood here between the conservatives and labour is that it is looking pretty close. the verification is still under way. pretty close. the verification is still underway. quite pretty close. the verification is still under way. quite a few wards looking quite tight and both parties saying one of the key places to watch will be an area where labour need to retake the seats if they are going to be in with a chance of retaking this council, which the conservatives won a majority in 2021 when borisjohnson was prime minister, and living the vaccine dream as it was for the party in those local elections, and since then the conservatives have been able to hold on here in harlow, and

now labour feel it is their chance, and keir starmer even said that he sees harlow as one of his real targets in essex. and what issues have been coming up? has it been a national picture? 0r has it been a national picture? or is it a local issue that is driving people around the twist? you cannot net awa people around the twist? you cannot get away from _ people around the twist? you cannot get away from the — people around the twist? you cannot get away from the national _ people around the twist? you cannot get away from the national political i get away from the national political scene on the ground here, but how is it is a massive issue locally, the lack of social housing, people struggling to get on the housing ladder, leaving harlow, moving further northwards because they can't afford a home. that is a big issue, as is regeneration. there are quite a lot of people about to have not made up their minds who to vote for in the past few weeks. a lot of people who are going to be turning out here are making up their minds quite late in the day. we haven't got a turnout figure yet, it has

traditionally been quite low in the local elections. last year it was just 25% of voters who turned out on the day. just 25% of voters who turned out on the da . ,, ., ., ~ just 25% of voters who turned out on the da . ,, ., ., ,, ,., just 25% of voters who turned out on theda. ,, ., ., ,, just 25% of voters who turned out on theda. ., . . the day. simon, thank you so much. it is interesting _ the day. simon, thank you so much. it is interesting to _ the day. simon, thank you so much. it is interesting to know _ the day. simon, thank you so much. it is interesting to know that - the day. simon, thank you so much. it is interesting to know that is - it is interesting to know that is one of the places where there is a well—known conservative mp standing down, a government minister, he is one of the many incumbents who are saying goodbye at the general election and that may well have big a effect whenever we get to that poll. let's go north to 0ldham and speak to shelley phelps. that is part of the world where labour has got quite a specific worry about how some voters might have been reacting, hasn't it?— some voters might have been reacting, hasn't it? that is right. the are reacting, hasn't it? that is right. they are just _ reacting, hasn't it? that is right. they are just verifying _ reacting, hasn't it? that is right. they are just verifying the - reacting, hasn't it? that is right. they are just verifying the votes| they are just verifying the votes behind me. the counting action has not started yet. as you say, this is interesting because labour has a majority of just one interesting because labour has a majority ofjust one and they are in a pretty precarious position. recently two councillors quit the

party over its stance on gaza, including one who is standing as an independent. forthe including one who is standing as an independent. for the conservatives as well three of the councillors, they suspended them when they attended a pro—palestinian march on armistice day. so we are looking here to see what the effect of the israel gaza war might be on labour's chances of success in a very diverse area. just under a quarter of people identified as muslim. speaking to labour campaigners, people who have arrived here already, they are nervous and there is concern about whether they will lose control of the council. in terms of the westminster picture, you have got three labour mps here and a little bit of the borough falls into the deputy leader angela rayner�*s constituency and she has been campaigning here in recent days. just recently next door in neighbouring rochdale we had george galloway�*s went for his workers

party of britain, that big shock by—election win. he has pledged that one of his things that he wants to do is to oust angela rayner. the other question _ do is to oust angela rayner. the other question around angela rayner that has been hard for her to escape, about her own personal affairs, is that something that has come up at all?— affairs, is that something that has come up at all? that is interesting, it is not something _ come up at all? that is interesting, it is not something that _ come up at all? that is interesting, it is not something that anyone - come up at all? that is interesting, it is not something that anyone has mentioned to me. speaking to labour campaigners, the predominant issues they seem to be worried about is some of their voters are angry at the party over their stance on gaza and they didn't call for a ceasefire quickly enough. all the other campaigns and issues around local issues, as you would expect, bins, housing, rents. but speaking to some voters the national staff does play into it and people were talking about the national picture. there is that sense among some that the apathy they feel that nobody is on their side or will make a

difference.— their side or will make a difference. , , ., difference. give us a nudge when we start to get — difference. give us a nudge when we start to get results. _ difference. give us a nudge when we start to get results. thank _ difference. give us a nudge when we start to get results. thank you - difference. give us a nudge when we start to get results. thank you very i start to get results. thank you very much for now in 0ldham. let's go to hartlepool. that is a really vital place for labour to show that they can grab votes back. a huge conservative success in 2021. dave mcmillan is there for us tonight. have labour got smiles on their faces or are they looking nervous? no, i think labour are fairly confident they will be making way here in the council. the last few years have been miserable for labour here. it was a labour stronghold for many years and they lost a by—election in 2021. borisjohnson almost taunted the labour party at that time. a couple of years before they lost control of the council. but they are on their way back. last

year they got a couple of votes and the electoral numbers are very much in their favour this year. apart from the birthday wishes, howling laud, for the conservatives they would like to hold on to the leadership of the council. the real test for labour comes tomorrow with the mayoral election. in test for labour comes tomorrow with the mayoral election.— the mayoral election. in terms of the mayoral election. in terms of the ben houchen _ the mayoral election. in terms of the ben houchen race, _ the mayoral election. in terms of the ben houchen race, we - the mayoral election. in terms of the ben houchen race, we have i the mayoral election. in terms of- the ben houchen race, we have heard in the last couple of days a lot of conservative spin about how it would be a huge victory for them to be able to hold onto him. they seem quite confident they will be able to do that but we won't get that result for a couple of days in fact. just talk to us about the context there. when he was chosen first he had all this north korean scale of the vote.

yes, that is right. last time it was something like 73% of the vote for ben houchen, described as the greatest single personal mandate for anyone in a local election. he is a hugely important figure for the conservatives and has had a huge impact on the local political landscape. the vibe seems to be that he will hang on to the election. a couple of weeks ago had chris mcewan and ben houchen neck and neck. another poll this week suggested that ben houchen pulled seven points ahead. most of the vibe is that he hold on. he is a hugely influential figure in the party and he was influential in breaking through the red wall before borisjohnson in 2019. he had done it already in 2017. ., ~ , ., 2019. he had done it already in 2017. . ~ ., ., 2017. thank you for now in hartlepool- _ 2017. thank you for now in hartlepool. we _ 2017. thank you for now in hartlepool. we will- 2017. thank you for now in hartlepool. we will be - 2017. thank you for now in | hartlepool. we will be back 2017. thank you for now in - hartlepool. we will be back with you a bit later in the night. we get a

sense of what is happening in the north—east of england. let stand back a big and look at the big picture because these results as they come in will be vital to preparing a picture as we run up to the general election. but they also take place in the historical context of the extraordinary political events that we have all lived through in the last few years. you have got that context there and you can explain how these local results mirror h. ~ , . ., ., mirror h. absolutely. what i have not here mirror h. absolutely. what i have got here is _ mirror h. absolutely. what i have got here is results _ mirror h. absolutely. what i have got here is results going - mirror h. absolutely. what i have got here is results going back- mirror h. absolutely. what i have got here is results going back 20| got here is results going back 20 years. these are the share of support of each of the main parties based on the results of the local elections. by that i mean we are able to extrapolate from local elections which we don't have all over the country, but we can work out using data from key wards where we track patterns over time, we can work out how the whole country would have voted if everyone had been voting. let me take you right the

way back to the beginning and you can see that during the labour years under tony blair and gordon brown, the blue line is in the ascendancy, the blue line is in the ascendancy, the conservatives, because it is one of those things that people do tend to want to give the government are kicking during the term. you can see there is a change once david cameron is in power and the red line start to dominate. not everywhere, there are blips in certain places. in 2015 it was the conservatives who did better. 2017 and theresa may, she had a fantastic night which forced her to call a general election where she promptly lost her majority. then you can see the conservatives doing very well in 2021, but then they have been on the slide since then. in 2023 the share of the vote from the main parties was a labour on 35%, conservatives on 26%, the lib dems on 20 and others on 19. by the

end of this evening, or sometime during the course of the night, we should be able to track that line to see what will be happening in 2024. based on about a third of the results overnight, overall we should be able to see how that share of the vote will be changing as if the whole country had been voting. so do stay with us. the whole country had been voting. so do stay with us— stay with us. the local elections are not the _ stay with us. the local elections are not the same _ stay with us. the local elections are not the same as _ stay with us. the local elections are not the same as the - stay with us. the local elections| are not the same as the national elections, but you have shown us how they are a really important track of where things are going. ijust want to explain to the eagle eyed among you, you might have noticed there is a prime minister missing in that enormous chart. you can see cameron, may, johnsen, sue nack. you know liz truss was in office for some time. but there were no local election

contest during her time in downing street and that is the reason she is not on the chart.— not on the chart. absolutely. we have not forgotten, _ not on the chart. absolutely. we have not forgotten, there - not on the chart. absolutely. we have not forgotten, there is - not on the chart. absolutely. we have not forgotten, there is a i have not forgotten, there is a reason. b. have not forgotten, there is a reason. �* ., ., have not forgotten, there is a reason. . ., ., , .,., reason. a lot of people who are wondering _ reason. a lot of people who are wondering about _ reason. a lot of people who are wondering about voting - reason. a lot of people who are - wondering about voting conservative may be have not forgotten about liz truss either. chris heaton—harris, we have seen how the vote share has changed and your polling position for a long time now and you are in quite a predicament. it for a long time now and you are in quite a predicament.— quite a predicament. it makes the ma oral quite a predicament. it makes the mayoral election _ quite a predicament. it makes the mayoral election in _ quite a predicament. it makes the mayoral election in teesside - quite a predicament. it makes the mayoral election in teesside even j mayoral election in teesside even more interesting, doesn't it? supposedly we are massively behind in the polls and we were behind in the early polls in teesside are now supposedly we are in place. even during the course of an election campaign where labour are throwing the kitchen sink at it, i don't know how many times keir starmer has been up how many times keir starmer has been up to teesside, six, seven, eight? ben houchen, who is an amazingly good mayor, who has delivered for the people of teesside, has had all sorts of personal attacks and

political attacks and a huge labour campaign and on the sorts of numbers you are suggesting it would be quite a surprise for us to do well. he you are suggesting it would be quite a surprise for us to do well.- a surprise for us to do well. he got more than — a surprise for us to do well. he got more than 70% _ a surprise for us to do well. he got more than 70% of _ a surprise for us to do well. he got more than 70% of the _ a surprise for us to do well. he got more than 70% of the vote - a surprise for us to do well. he got more than 70% of the vote last - a surprise for us to do well. he got i more than 70% of the vote last time. hold that thought for a second because i think we can show you the first couple of results coming in. they are not quite ready. bridget, thatis they are not quite ready. bridget, that is your part of the world. chris heaton—harris, you say it would be amazing if you manage to hold onto ben houchen. but he did get more than 70% of the vote last time and he himself said during the campaign there are a lot of people who speak to me and say they will vote for me but they probably will not vote conservative at the general election. so it is despite your national party, big —— not because of it. he national party, big -- not because of it. , , ., national party, big -- not because of it. , , . ., of it. he is standing as a conservative _ of it. he is standing as a conservative mayor - of it. he is standing as a conservative mayor and | of it. he is standing as a | conservative mayor and i of it. he is standing as a - conservative mayor and i am of it. he is standing as a _ conservative mayor and i am pretty sure that if he stood for any other party he would not do as well. we

have had loads of mps campaigning for him and he is a really good mayor. he deserves to be elected on his own right because he has delivered massively for the people of teesside. this leads to the point that where you actually do promise things and then deliver them, you have the opportunity then to talk to voters about persuading them to vote for you. voters about persuading them to vote for ou. ., ., , , for you. even though he has been sellin: for you. even though he has been spelling out _ for you. even though he has been spelling out to — for you. even though he has been spelling out to voters _ for you. even though he has been spelling out to voters that - for you. even though he has been spelling out to voters that people j spelling out to voters that people will not vote for the conservatives? in 2019, it was the first time we had some of these seats in teesside, before that every seat before that was labour. before that every seat before that was labour-— before that every seat before that was labour. . , ,., was labour. that is quite something. let's not was labour. that is quite something. let's not get — was labour. that is quite something. let's not get bogged _ was labour. that is quite something. let's not get bogged down _ was labour. that is quite something. let's not get bogged down in - was labour. that is quite something. let's not get bogged down in a - let's not get bogged down in a contest that we will not get the result from until tomorrow afternoon. let's talk to you, maybe chris heaton—harris has a point. if labour is real and credible you

ought to be sweeping the board everywhere. i ought to be sweeping the board everywhere-— ought to be sweeping the board everywhere. i will deal with tees valley and _ everywhere. i will deal with tees valley and move _ everywhere. i will deal with tees valley and move on _ everywhere. i will deal with tees valley and move on to _ everywhere. i will deal with tees valley and move on to the - everywhere. i will deal with tees valley and move on to the wider| valley and move on to the wider dynamics— valley and move on to the wider dynamics of the evening. ben houchen has run _ dynamics of the evening. ben houchen has run a _ dynamics of the evening. ben houchen has run a mile from the conservative brand _ has run a mile from the conservative brand entering this contest. he has secured _ brand entering this contest. he has secured an — brand entering this contest. he has secured an enormous share of the vote hack— secured an enormous share of the vote hack in — secured an enormous share of the vote back in 2021 and it would require — vote back in 2021 and it would require a _ vote back in 2021 and it would require a 23% swing for us to take that and _ require a 23% swing for us to take that and that is huge. i am confident we will make progress. but i heard _ confident we will make progress. but i heard a _ confident we will make progress. but i heard a lot — confident we will make progress. but i heard a lot of people in teesside saying _ i heard a lot of people in teesside saying what ben houchen is saying. i am confident we will make progress in the _ am confident we will make progress in the general election in teesside. in hartlepool we made progress last time around and i am confident we will make — time around and i am confident we will make progress again this evening _ will make progress again this evening. that demonstrates the scale of the _ evening. that demonstrates the scale of the change we have seen under keir starmer from where we were in 2021. _ keir starmer from where we were in 2021, losing — keir starmer from where we were in 2021, losing the by—election, an enormous — 2021, losing the by—election, an enormous challenge. we do have the blackpool _ enormous challenge. we do have the blackpool south by—election this evening — blackpool south by—election this evening which is the most obvious comparator— evening which is the most obvious comparator when it comes to

parliamentary results. the mayoral contest _ parliamentary results. the mayoral contest are — parliamentary results. the mayoral contest are a different dynamic for a range _ contest are a different dynamic for a range of— contest are a different dynamic for a range of reasons and i would apply that across _ a range of reasons and i would apply that across the country. if a range of reasons and i would apply that across the country.— that across the country. if you did well ou that across the country. if you did well you would — that across the country. if you did well you would hail— that across the country. if you did well you would hail it _ that across the country. if you did well you would hail it as - that across the country. if you did well you would hail it as an - well you would hail it as an enormous victory. we are hearing blackpool south might come sooner than we think. i had a communication with somebody suggesting they might be nearly finished with accounting. that seems very early in the night but i wanted to fly that for you in case we suddenly have to jump away. bridget philipson, you are using a lot of political phrases like showing considerable progress in showing considerable progress in showing we have made in advance. will you give us an idea of what would be a reasonable benchmark? some number crunching is gaining around 300 would be decent for labour given the pattern of where the seats are coming up. it is labour given the pattern of where the seats are coming up.- the seats are coming up. it is the areas and — the seats are coming up. it is the areas and not _ the seats are coming up. it is the areas and not the _ the seats are coming up. it is the areas and not the numbers. - the seats are coming up. it is the areas and not the numbers. it. the seats are coming up. it is the areas and not the numbers. it is| areas and not the numbers. it is making — areas and not the numbers. it is making progress in places where we need to— making progress in places where we need to demonstrate we are making advances— need to demonstrate we are making advances before the general election and where _ advances before the general election and where that aligns with our parliamentary seats. what i have

heard _ parliamentary seats. what i have heard right across the country, and i have _ heard right across the country, and i have travelled the length and breadth — i have travelled the length and breadth of england in recent weeks and months, is there is a real mood and months, is there is a real mood and appetite — and months, is there is a real mood and appetite for change. i have spoken— and appetite for change. i have spoken to _ and appetite for change. i have spoken to so many conservative voters _ spoken to so many conservative voters who _ spoken to so many conservative voters who have just had enough. they— voters who have just had enough. they are — voters who have just had enough. they are not prepared to vote conservative. they are sick of the chaos _ conservative. they are sick of the chaos the — conservative. they are sick of the chaos. the very fact we are having the blackpool south by—election this evening _ the blackpool south by—election this evening demonstrates the chaos, the sleaze _ evening demonstrates the chaos, the sleaze and _ evening demonstrates the chaos, the sleaze and people just want to turn a corner— sleaze and people just want to turn a corner and they want britain to have _ a corner and they want britain to have a _ a corner and they want britain to have a better future ahead of us. we can now have a better future ahead of us. can now show have a better future ahead of us. - can now show you our first set of results so we can start filling in the blanks of some of our political conversations. here are the early results from sunderland. there are enough results to say that labour will hold the council. that is not a surprise in and of itself. let's look at the change of seats. it looks like no seats have changed hands. but the share is 54% to

labour and only five to the lib dems and 9% for the conservatives. in the turquoise, that is reform. if you are a politico you will know that party is what emerged out of the remains of the brexit party and they are working very hard to make a dent. they are not standing everywhere, they are standing in the by—election, but not everywhere in the country. look at the change in the country. look at the change in the share. labour up by 5%, so that is distinct, but not overwhelming. the tories down by in sunderland. the tories down by in sunderland. the independents down by 11%. but the reform party in turquoise are up by 19%. the reform party in turquoise are up by19%. reform the reform party in turquoise are up by 19%. reform gaining more injured than the are losing. interesting, isn't it? we have got the result but we don't have the breakdown of every single seat. to help us decode that,

let's bring in professor sirjohn curtice. looking at these first straws in the political wind tonight, what does that make you think? ,, ., ., ., , think? sunderland in parliamentary elections is often _ think? sunderland in parliamentary elections is often early _ think? sunderland in parliamentary elections is often early and - think? sunderland in parliamentary elections is often early and we - think? sunderland in parliamentary| elections is often early and we have to remember that it does have its own particular catchment. this is a very eurosceptic part of the country. it is also somewhere where ukip did well in local elections in the past. we have now seen reform out to poll the conservatives in each of the wards results we have got in from sunderland so far. as you have seen in the summary the conservative vote is well down on 2021 and even down on this time last year. at least in this early result the conservatives do have reason to be concerned about what will happen in eurosceptic reports of the country where reform stands. sunderland is one of the places

where reform are fighting all of the wards. early signs and it will be a difficult night for the conservatives. we will keep tracking to what extent do they particularly suffer where reform are standing. labour are making progress, but modest progress, but after all sunderland is already very strongly labour. we should not expect too much in the way of progress for labour here. ii much in the way of progress for labour here-— much in the way of progress for labour here. if the national polls are aaivin labour here. if the national polls are giving us _ labour here. if the national polls are giving us a — labour here. if the national polls are giving us a true _ labour here. if the national polls are giving us a true picture, - labour here. if the national pollsj are giving us a true picture, what kind of increases should we be seeing from the labour party tonight? give us some context on that? ., , , ., that? the trouble is the labour party does _ that? the trouble is the labour party does not _ that? the trouble is the labour party does not do _ that? the trouble is the labour party does not do as _ that? the trouble is the labour party does not do as well - that? the trouble is the labour party does not do as well in - that? the trouble is the labour. party does not do as well in local elections partly because the liberal democrats do better. but given that the labour party is at least where i was 12 months ago, given that last

yearmy local election performance was somewhat modest by any standards, i think labour would like at least to be a point or two are unaware they were last year. that translates into a ten point increase on where they were back in 2021. those are the kind of figures, but to be honest i think given how much the conservative decline in sunderland seems to be tied to the presence of reform, the $64,000 question now is what will happen in the majority of wards where reform are not present? are the result is going to be exceptionally bad for the conservatives because elsewhere where reform are not standing, some of the voters will vote for them anyway. 0r of the voters will vote for them anyway. or will voters still stay away from the conservatives even if reform were not present? that is one

of the vital questions to which we don't as yet have the answer. igrate don't as yet have the answer. we will be back with you a bit later. we can show you pictures of the count in exeter. let's also show you the picture of rushmore in hampshire where labour is very hopeful of making progress, potentially even making progress, potentially even making again. rushmore is the council where the town of aldershot is, a very military area. it will be interesting if labour manages to make progress there. the counters are getting busy in hartlepool. we have talked about why it is so vital and interesting. a big tory victory in 2021. let's show you again what is going on in blackpool south. there are a lot of people standing around. let's have a closer look to see if there is any decisive action. it looks like some of the tables are empty, so maybe the counting is progressing faster than we expected.

let's talk to one of the conservatives who will be watching this very closely as it comes in. the deputy editor of the popular conservative website conservative home. you are the acting editor, henry. we heard chris heaton—harris try to emphasise that there might be success for the conservatives hanging on to the tees valley mayoralty. but from what your contacts have been saying to you in the last few days, what have you been hearing so far? how do you expect this election in 48 hours to plan for your party? i expect this election in 48 hours to plan for your party?— plan for your party? i think the crucial thing _ plan for your party? i think the crucial thing in _ plan for your party? i think the crucial thing in the _ plan for your party? i think the crucial thing in the short - plan for your party? i think the crucial thing in the short term | plan for your party? i think the i crucial thing in the short term will be the mayoral elections because those have a disproportionate ability to sway the narrative that comes out of this about the prime minister and the party was back porches. if they hold onto tees valley that is not a complete wipe—out. if they hold onto the west

midlands, a longer shot, that would be a real shot in the arm. that will be a real shot in the arm. that will be a real shot in the arm. that will be a more maybe than the is what is going to determine how panicky mps are come monday morning once the ashes have settled and we know where we stand. in terms of the general election, the more important thing will probably be the councils because councillors, you are much more likely to see voting on national grounds than you are with mayers where you have people with a much stronger individual mandate and the individual brand because they are standing as a single person. councillors are the infantry of a general election campaign and one of the concerns i have heard for the conservatives and one of the reasons some people were agitating for the prime minister to go for an election this month is that if the conservatives suffer heavy council losses, that is hundreds of people who probably many of them will not be out campaigning for the party in an autumn election. nor will their friends and family. it will be interesting to see at the end of the

weekend how much damage has been done. in weekend how much damage has been done. , ., ., , weekend how much damage has been done. ,., , done. in terms of last year's performance. _ done. in terms of last year's performance, it _ done. in terms of last year's performance, it was - done. in terms of last year's performance, it was woefull done. in terms of last year's i performance, it was woeful for done. in terms of last year's - performance, it was woeful for the conservatives in the council elections, they lost 1000. it is interesting, you are saying if they make big losses this year i actually thatis make big losses this year i actually that is what mps should be paying attention to. has tory hq already managed to spin them into worrying about the wrong things? it is managed to spin them into worrying about the wrong things?— about the wrong things? it is partly the media's — about the wrong things? it is partly the media's fault _ about the wrong things? it is partly the media's fault but _ about the wrong things? it is partly the media's fault but the _ about the wrong things? it is partly the media's fault but the mayoral. the media's fault but the mayoral elections have a very high profile. they will naturally be very interesting. if andy street manages to hold on in the west midlands, an area which is normally labour, that would be an interesting result. in terms of if you are a conservative mp you will have a personal vote and you will have a local profile, but you will have a local profile, but you will have a local profile, but you will be also most of your purchase will be the people who turn out and tick the box of the party

they want to vote for. in that case they want to vote for. in that case the local elections will be a much stronger tale of a party's performance in a given area than a good performance by conservative mayor. good performance by conservative ma or. , good performance by conservative ma or. y ., ~ , mayor. henry hill, thank you. chris, it is true that _ mayor. henry hill, thank you. chris, it is true that the _ mayor. henry hill, thank you. chris, it is true that the narrative - mayor. henry hill, thank you. chris, it is true that the narrative has - it is true that the narrative has become very dominated by the mayoral contest and notjust biennial mayoral contest, by two specifically when there are 11 going on around the country. do you think that mps are looking at the wrong things? it is interesting and you get a clash between the psephology, the numbers thatjohn curtice and others will crunch and what that might mean if you extrapolate it to a general election, and then the psychology. as henry would say, baked into the whole idea, the case of the mayoral model, is the idea you have these high—profile, regionalfigures who high—profile, regional figures who are high—profile, regionalfigures who are quasi nationalfigures because they can be an ambassadorial figure

on the national stage for their region. it also means that they can develop a political brand that is a far greater extension of their party brand and it is possible if you are a council leader or an mp, which means you can make your campaigning points are little detached from your party and we have absolutely seen the likes of andy street, the conservative mayor, standing for the west midlands mayoralty, doing just that where his conservativism is very light. that said, on the ballot paper, it still says conservative next to his name. in terms of the psychology of conservative mps, there is no doubt they are attaching quite a lot of significance to these two contest in the tees valley and the west midlands as a way if they are able to hold them to say things

might be bad if it turns out in the council elections, but not as bad as it could have been. there is a lot of psychology as well as spin around those. igrate of psychology as well as spin around those.~ of psychology as well as spin around those. ~ . ~ of psychology as well as spin around those. ~ ., ,, ., , of psychology as well as spin around those. ~ ., «i , ., those. we will talk to james pearson in redditch in _ those. we will talk to james pearson in redditch in the _ those. we will talk to james pearson in redditch in the midlands - those. we will talk to james pearson in redditch in the midlands but - those. we will talk to james pearson in redditch in the midlands butjust i in redditch in the midlands butjust outside the west midlands mayoralty area. is it the case that the mayoralty is are an anomaly because of what you have been explaining? they are, they are a relatively novel and new concept. in the set of elections there are parts of england who are electing a mayor for the very first time, north yorkshire and large parts of the north—east of england, north of the tees valley area. they are in numerical and psychological term different and in some ways an anomaly. but in the mood making there will be significant.— mood making there will be siunificant. �*, ., ., . significant. let's go to redditch in the west midlands. _ significant. let's go to redditch in

the west midlands. it _ significant. let's go to redditch in the west midlands. it is _ significant. let's go to redditch in the west midlands. it is not - significant. let's go to redditch in the west midlands. it is not in - significant. let's go to redditch in j the west midlands. it is not in the mayor's area, andy street. but it is in a place where there are a lot of marginal seats in a general election and redditch is a labour target. they last won it in 2016 and it is a straight battle between labour and the tories. ~ . ., , ., ., the tories. what are you hearing? that is what _ the tories. what are you hearing? that is what it — the tories. what are you hearing? that is what it looks _ the tories. what are you hearing? that is what it looks like _ the tories. what are you hearing? that is what it looks like tonight. i that is what it looks like tonight. the nerves are definitely building at the abbey stadium. the political parties, labour, conservatives, they are used to fighting council elections and they are used to going on the doorstep. but this year it is the big one because all the council seats are up here and that is what is fuelling the nerves. labour say they should be confident of taking this. that is what they have been telling me in recent weeks. tonight they seem a bit nervy. we have got three councillors of ward being elected here and they think voters are splitting their votes between the parties and they might not scoop

up the parties and they might not scoop up all three councillors. the conservatives have been out trying really hard, as has the local mp, the deputy chair of the conservative party, rachel mclean. they think it is too close to call at the moment. the greens are hoping to take a seat, but it is a battle between labour and the conservatives. you mention the marginals in general elections, rachel mclean holds the seat with a majority of 16,000. if labour take a seat tonight they will be confident they can take it in a general election in a few months potentially. igrate general election in a few months potentially-— potentially. we will be back with ou later. potentially. we will be back with you later- an — potentially. we will be back with you later. an interesting - potentially. we will be back with you later. an interesting battle i you later. an interesting battle there, a straight fight between the tories and the labour party. we have a bit more information coming in from sunderland in terms of how things panned out with the arithmetic. labour41 things panned out with the arithmetic. labour 41 seats. things panned out with the arithmetic. labour41 seats. in terms of seats changing hands you can see a straight switch with labour getting one and the tories

dropping one. let's show you more about how the share of the vote has changed. this is the really interesting thing. you can see the tories dropping by 70%, the reform party going up by exactly the same amount. a straight switch between the tories and the reform party. sunderland had a very strong support for the brexit referendum. but interesting to see that straight switch. you can see why the leader of the reform party, richard tice, has tweeted this. we will see. we hope to speak to him later on in the evening. so far reform are hailing their own progress in sunderland where they claim they will beat the tories in

25 seats, although they have not won a seat there yet. in terms of the vote share they have taken away from the tories. there are people there blackpool south they have finished their duties for the evening. it looks as though things have progressed quite quickly. chris, in terms of ad switch from tories to reform directly in sunderland, that's the kind of thing that will make them really nervy. ila kind of thing that will make them really nervy— kind of thing that will make them reall ne . ., ., ., . ., really nervy. no wonder that richard tice was leaping _ really nervy. no wonder that richard tice was leaping on _ really nervy. no wonder that richard tice was leaping on to _ really nervy. no wonder that richard tice was leaping on to social- really nervy. no wonder that richard tice was leaping on to social media | tice was leaping on to social media within nanoseconds even at this early stage. of course we can't be certain exactly where votes had come from, but there is a certain symmetry that will alarm conservatives. yes, there is a particular lytical history of sunderland, which people will recall from the other results of the brexit referendum, but in terms of that

dynamic that exists in british politics at the moment involving the conservatives and reform, with reform uk absolutely insistent that they are not going to call off the dogs, that they regard the conservatives as a spent force and want to inflict damage, richard tice and others will point to this result and others will point to this result andindeed and others will point to this result and indeed others if this represents something of a trend as the results come, to say if they are going to be very influential in causing the conservatives harm. and they can do it, as we have seen in sunderland, they hope reform can do this without winning anywhere, if they can peel away a sufficient number of previous conservative voters that might in some places be the difference between the conservative and labour vote. it'll be interesting to see how well or not reform doing blackpool south and the parliamentary by—election. igrate blackpool south and the parliamentary by-election. we have been hearing _ parliamentary by-election. we have been hearing from _ parliamentary by-election. we have been hearing from helen _ parliamentary by-election. we have been hearing from helen that - parliamentary by-election. we have been hearing from helen that they i been hearing from helen that they didn't seem to be expected to come into second place and if they did or

got very close to the conservatives, that really would spook them, chris heaton—harris, concerned are you about the threat from reform? first of all, it's definitely _ about the threat from reform? first of all, it's definitely not a direct switch — of all, it's definitely not a direct switch you _ of all, it's definitely not a direct switch. you may have noticed in those _ switch. you may have noticed in those figures, i think it was independents ardern, this is bridget's seat so i'm not going to tell her. — bridget's seat so i'm not going to tell her. in— bridget's seat so i'm not going to tell her, in redhill there was quite a strong _ tell her, in redhill there was quite a strong ukip presence in the past, and it's_ a strong ukip presence in the past, and it's very— a strong ukip presence in the past, and it's very interesting place to do politics, i'm sure. but the one thing _ do politics, i'm sure. but the one thing it— do politics, i'm sure. but the one thing it does assure you is that if you vote — thing it does assure you is that if you vote reform you get labour. so is very— you vote reform you get labour. so is very straightforward equation for people _ is very straightforward equation for people at— is very straightforward equation for people at the next general election, if they— people at the next general election, if they want to vote reform, they will end _ if they want to vote reform, they will end up — if they want to vote reform, they will end up with labour mps and they will end up with labour mps and they will end _ will end up with labour mps and they will end with a labour government and they— will end with a labour government and they widow probably with everything they didn't want to vote for based _ everything they didn't want to vote for based on the profile of reform voters _ for based on the profile of reform voters. �* .. ., ,

for based on the profile of reform voters. �* ., , , ., , , voters. but it actually shows us... peole voters. but it actually shows us... people are — voters. but it actually shows us... people are choosing _ voters. but it actually shows us... people are choosing the _ voters. but it actually shows us... people are choosing the reform i voters. but it actually shows us... i people are choosing the reform party instead of the conservatives. we have no way of getting into the minds of voters but their share increased as much as yours fell away, and people buy those statistics early in the night, walking away from you and choosing them instead. ithink walking away from you and choosing them instead. i think it is more complicated than that, even in sunderland, but are not going to pray and bridget's seat. but sunderland, but are not going to pray and bridget's seat.- pray and bridget's seat. but the direct lesson _ pray and bridget's seat. but the direct lesson from _ pray and bridget's seat. but the direct lesson from this - pray and bridget's seat. but the direct lesson from this already, | pray and bridget's seat. but the . direct lesson from this already, the one thing _ direct lesson from this already, the one thing you can draw is that in this particular seat that has swapped hands is that reform were putting _ swapped hands is that reform were putting a _ swapped hands is that reform were pulling a decent chunk of the vote but made — pulling a decent chunk of the vote but made it a labour gain. but that is because voters _ but made it a labour gain. but that is because voters are _ but made it a labour gain. but that is because voters are choosing - but made it a labour gain. but that l is because voters are choosing them and not new in sunderland. so far you are down six points since last year. you are down six points since last ear. �* . ., . ., year. but at the general election, this is a very _ year. but at the general election, this is a very clear— year. but at the general election, this is a very clear choice - year. but at the general election, this is a very clear choice that. this is a very clear choice that people — this is a very clear choice that people will be making. at the general— people will be making. at the general election you are choosing

the government of the country, you're _ the government of the country, you're choosing your immigration policy, _ you're choosing your immigration policy, taxation policy, education policy, _ policy, taxation policy, education policy, and — policy, taxation policy, education policy, and these are big choices and a _ policy, and these are big choices and a vote — policy, and these are big choices and a vote for reform equals a vote for labour~ — and a vote for reform equals a vote for labour-— for labour. bridget phillipson, what do ou sa for labour. bridget phillipson, what do you say to _ for labour. bridget phillipson, what do you say to that? _ for labour. bridget phillipson, what do you say to that? you _ for labour. bridget phillipson, what do you say to that? you are - for labour. bridget phillipson, what do you say to that? you are the - do you say to that? you are the sunderland expert here. perhaps you can give a perspective. i’m sunderland expert here. perhaps you can give a perspective.— can give a perspective. i'm happy to talk about sunderland _ can give a perspective. i'm happy to talk about sunderland all _ can give a perspective. i'm happy to talk about sunderland all night - can give a perspective. i'm happy to talk about sunderland all night but i talk about sunderland all night but i'm not— talk about sunderland all night but i'm not sure — talk about sunderland all night but i'm not sure viewers _ talk about sunderland all night but i'm not sure viewers will _ talk about sunderland all night but i'm not sure viewers will be - talk about sunderland all night but i'm not sure viewers will be that i i'm not sure viewers will be that fascinated — i'm not sure viewers will be that fascinated with _ i'm not sure viewers will be that fascinated with the _ i'm not sure viewers will be that fascinated with the detail - i'm not sure viewers will be that fascinated with the detail of - fascinated with the detail of sunderland _ fascinated with the detail of sunderland politics. - fascinated with the detail of sunderland politics. i’m“ - fascinated with the detail of sunderland politics. i'm sure we have not sunderland politics. i'm sure we have got lots — sunderland politics. i'm sure we have got lots of _ sunderland politics. i'm sure we have got lots of viewers - sunderland politics. i'm sure we have got lots of viewers in - have got lots of viewers in sunderland. i have got lots of viewers in sunderland.— have got lots of viewers in sunderland. «i , , ., ., sunderland. i will keep my remarks a bit more broadbrush. _ sunderland. i will keep my remarks a bit more broadbrush. it _ sunderland. i will keep my remarks a bit more broadbrush. it is _ sunderland. i will keep my remarks a bit more broadbrush. it is a - sunderland. i will keep my remarks a bit more broadbrush. it is a council i bit more broadbrush. it is a council that while — bit more broadbrush. it is a council that while the _ bit more broadbrush. it is a council that while the results _ bit more broadbrush. it is a council that while the results are - that while the results are encouraging _ that while the results are encouraging and - that while the results are encouraging and we - that while the results are encouraging and we havej that while the results are - encouraging and we have taken that while the results are _ encouraging and we have taken voters from the _ encouraging and we have taken voters from the conservatives, _ encouraging and we have taken voters from the conservatives, i— encouraging and we have taken voters from the conservatives, i think- encouraging and we have taken voters from the conservatives, i think it - from the conservatives, i think it goes _ from the conservatives, i think it goes back— from the conservatives, i think it goes back to _ from the conservatives, i think it goes back to the _ from the conservatives, i think it goes back to the point _ from the conservatives, i think it goes back to the point about - from the conservatives, i think it - goes back to the point about looking across _ goes back to the point about looking across the _ goes back to the point about looking across the country— goes back to the point about looking across the country as _ goes back to the point about looking across the country as the _ goes back to the point about looking across the country as the results - across the country as the results come _ across the country as the results come in. — across the country as the results come in, especially— across the country as the results come in, especially for- across the country as the results come in, especially for us - across the country as the results come in, especially for us in - across the country as the results i come in, especially for us in those areas _ come in, especially for us in those areas where — come in, especially for us in those areas where we _ come in, especially for us in those areas where we need _ come in, especially for us in those areas where we need to _ come in, especially for us in those areas where we need to make - come in, especially for us in those - areas where we need to make progress in order— areas where we need to make progress in order to _ areas where we need to make progress in order to form — areas where we need to make progress in order to form a — areas where we need to make progress in order to form a parliamentary- in order to form a parliamentary majority —

in order to form a parliamentary majority those _ in order to form a parliamentary majority. those are _ in order to form a parliamentary majority. those are the - in order to form a parliamentary majority. those are the kinds i in order to form a parliamentary majority. those are the kinds ofi majority. those are the kinds of places. — majority. those are the kinds of places. we _ majority. those are the kinds of places. we will_ majority. those are the kinds of places, we will talk— majority. those are the kinds of places, we will talk about - places, we will talk about hartlepool, _ places, we will talk about hartlepool, redditch, - places, we will talk about hartlepool, redditch, i. places, we will talk about l hartlepool, redditch, iwas places, we will talk about - hartlepool, redditch, i was aired last week— hartlepool, redditch, i was aired last week in _ hartlepool, redditch, i was aired last week in what _ hartlepool, redditch, i was aired last week in what was _ hartlepool, redditch, i was aired last week in what was absolutely| last week in what was absolutely clear _ last week in what was absolutely clear was — last week in what was absolutely clear was that _ last week in what was absolutely clear was that lifelong _ last week in what was absolutely i clear was that lifelong conservative voters _ clear was that lifelong conservative voters are — clear was that lifelong conservative voters are turning _ clear was that lifelong conservative voters are turning away _ clear was that lifelong conservative voters are turning away from - clear was that lifelong conservative voters are turning away from the i voters are turning away from the conservative _ voters are turning away from the conservative party _ voters are turning away from the conservative party and _ voters are turning away from the conservative party and coming . conservative party and coming directtv — conservative party and coming directly over— conservative party and coming directly over to _ conservative party and coming directly over to labour. - conservative party and coming directly over to labour. it's - directly over to labour. it's because _ directly over to labour. it's because they— directly over to labour. it's because they have - directly over to labour. it's because they have just - directly over to labour. it's because they have just had directly over to labour. it's - because they have just had enough directly over to labour. it's _ because they have just had enough of all the _ because they have just had enough of all the chaos — because they have just had enough of all the chaos. everything _ because they have just had enough of all the chaos. everything that- because they have just had enough of all the chaos. everything that began. all the chaos. everything that began with boris— all the chaos. everything that began with borisjohnson, _ all the chaos. everything that began with borisjohnson, drifting - all the chaos. everything that began with borisjohnson, drifting on- all the chaos. everything that began with borisjohnson, drifting on to i with borisjohnson, drifting on to liz truss— with borisjohnson, drifting on to liz truss and _ with borisjohnson, drifting on to liz truss and then _ with borisjohnson, drifting on to liz truss and then here _ with borisjohnson, drifting on to liz truss and then here we - with borisjohnson, drifting on to liz truss and then here we are i with borisjohnson, drifting on to i liz truss and then here we are now, there's— liz truss and then here we are now, there's a _ liz truss and then here we are now, there's a reat— liz truss and then here we are now, there's a real mood _ liz truss and then here we are now, there's a real mood and _ liz truss and then here we are now, there's a real mood and a _ liz truss and then here we are now, there's a real mood and a real- there's a real mood and a real appetite — there's a real mood and a real appetite for— there's a real mood and a real appetite for change. - there's a real mood and a real appetite for change. you - there's a real mood and a real appetite for change.— there's a real mood and a real appetite for change. you have said the 're appetite for change. you have said they're coming _ appetite for change. you have said they're coming directly _ appetite for change. you have said they're coming directly to - appetite for change. you have said they're coming directly to labour l they're coming directly to labour but in your home city, swathes of them are going to reform. you will see different _ them are going to reform. you will see different kinds _ them are going to reform. you will see different kinds of _ them are going to reform. you will see different kinds of results - them are going to reform. you will see different kinds of results in - see different kinds of results in areas _ see different kinds of results in areas where _ see different kinds of results in areas where you _ see different kinds of results in areas where you already - see different kinds of results in areas where you already have l see different kinds of results in areas where you already have a majority — areas where you already have a majority for _ areas where you already have a majority for one _ areas where you already have a majority for one party. - areas where you already have a majority for one party. rarely. areas where you already have a i majority for one party. rarely with the result — majority for one party. rarely with the result irr— majority for one party. rarely with the result in sunderland _ majority for one party. rarely with the result in sunderland be - majority for one party. rarely with the result in sunderland be at - majority for one party. rarely with the result in sunderland be at a i the result in sunderland be at a generat— the result in sunderland be at a general election— the result in sunderland be at a general election or— the result in sunderland be at a general election or local- the result in sunderland be at a i general election or local election having _ general election or local election having the — general election or local election having the same _ general election or local election having the same carry—over- general election or local election having the same carry—over youi general election or local election - having the same carry—over you would expect _ having the same carry—over you would expect in _ having the same carry—over you would expect in other— having the same carry—over you would expect in other parts _ having the same carry—over you would expect in other parts of _ having the same carry—over you would expect in other parts of the _ having the same carry—over you would expect in other parts of the country i expect in other parts of the country but certainly — expect in other parts of the country but certainly where _ expect in other parts of the country but certainly where i've _ expect in other parts of the country but certainly where i've been - but certainly where i've been campaigning. _ but certainly where i've been campaigning, within- but certainly where i've been campaigning, within the - but certainly where i've beenj campaigning, within the east midlands. _ campaigning, within the east midlands, west— campaigning, within the east midlands, west midlands- campaigning, within the east| midlands, west midlands and campaigning, within the east i midlands, west midlands and in places— midlands, west midlands and in places like — midlands, west midlands and in places like teesside, _ midlands, west midlands and in places like teesside, are - midlands, west midlands and in| places like teesside, are getting direct— places like teesside, are getting direct lifelong _ places like teesside, are getting direct lifelong tory— places like teesside, are getting direct lifelong tory voters -

direct lifelong tory voters switching _ direct lifelong tory voters switching to _ direct lifelong tory voters switching to labour. - direct lifelong tory voters switching to labour.- direct lifelong tory voters switchin: to labour. ., ., switching to labour. you mentioned teesside and _ switching to labour. you mentioned teesside and west _ switching to labour. you mentioned teesside and west midlands, - switching to labour. you mentioned teesside and west midlands, you i switching to labour. you mentioned i teesside and west midlands, you have already said that actually the mayoralty is there so it's a bit of an anomaly, but you have set yourself, you've been there, lots of labour politicians have been there, you have campaigned very hard in those places and from the kind of language you are giving us tonight, it sounds like you don't think you are going to make it. fit it sounds like you don't think you are going to make it.— it sounds like you don't think you are going to make it. of course, we fou~ht are going to make it. of course, we fought really _ are going to make it. of course, we fought really hard _ are going to make it. of course, we fought really hard across _ are going to make it. of course, we fought really hard across the - fought really hard across the countrv _ fought really hard across the country. especially— fought really hard across the country. especially in - fought really hard across the country. especially in those. fought really hard across the - country. especially in those target areas _ country. especially in those target areas but — country. especially in those target areas but you _ country. especially in those target areas. but you were _ country. especially in those target areas. but you were talking - country. especially in those target| areas. but you were talking earlier about _ areas. but you were talking earlier about the — areas. but you were talking earlier about the fact _ areas. but you were talking earlier about the fact that _ areas. but you were talking earlier about the fact that these - areas. but you were talking earlier about the fact that these are - about the fact that these are different— about the fact that these are different kinds— about the fact that these are different kinds of— about the fact that these are different kinds of contests. i about the fact that these are . different kinds of contests. i'm confident— different kinds of contests. i'm confident we _ different kinds of contests. i'm confident we will— different kinds of contests. i'm confident we will make - different kinds of contests. i'm i confident we will make progress different kinds of contests. i'm - confident we will make progress in teesside _ confident we will make progress in teesside but— confident we will make progress in teesside but the _ confident we will make progress in teesside but the scale _ confident we will make progress in teesside but the scale of- confident we will make progress in teesside but the scale of the - confident we will make progress in| teesside but the scale of the swing that would — teesside but the scale of the swing that would be — teesside but the scale of the swing that would be required _ teesside but the scale of the swing that would be required in— teesside but the scale of the swing that would be required in order- teesside but the scale of the swing that would be required in order to. that would be required in order to take that — that would be required in order to take that mayoralty— that would be required in order to take that mayoralty would - that would be required in order to take that mayoralty would be - take that mayoralty would be enormous _ take that mayoralty would be enormous which _ take that mayoralty would be enormous which is _ take that mayoralty would be enormous which is why- take that mayoralty would be enormous which is why the l enormous which is why the conservatives— enormous which is why the conservatives want- enormous which is why the conservatives want to - enormous which is why the i conservatives want to focus enormous which is why the - conservatives want to focus on that. what _ conservatives want to focus on that. what about — conservatives want to focus on that. what about the _ conservatives want to focus on that. what about the west _ conservatives want to focus on that. what about the west midlands? - conservatives want to focus on that. what about the west midlands? lt’s| conservatives want to focus on that. i what about the west midlands? [it’s a what about the west midlands? it's a tou . h what about the west midlands? it's a tough contest _ what about the west midlands? it's a tough contest. i— what about the west midlands? it's a tough contest. i think _ what about the west midlands? it's a tough contest. i think we'll —— but a lot— tough contest. i think we'll —— but a lot will— tough contest. i think we'll —— but a lot will end _ tough contest. i think we'll —— but a lot will end up _ tough contest. i think we'll —— but a lot will end up coming _ tough contest. i think we'll —— but a lot will end up coming in - tough contest. i think we'll —— but a lot will end up coming in to- tough contest. i think we'll —— but a lot will end up coming in to turnj a lot will end up coming in to turn out _ a lot will end up coming in to turn out these — a lot will end up coming in to turn out these are _ a lot will end up coming in to turn out. these are different _ a lot will end up coming in to turn out. these are different kinds- a lot will end up coming in to turn out. these are different kinds of. out. these are different kinds of contests — out. these are different kinds of contests and _ out. these are different kinds of contests and in _ out. these are different kinds of contests and in the _ out. these are different kinds of contests and in the case - out. these are different kinds of contests and in the case of- out. these are different kinds of contests and in the case of both| contests and in the case of both west— contests and in the case of both west midlands— contests and in the case of both west midlands and _ contests and in the case of both west midlands and the - contests and in the case of both west midlands and the tees -

contests and in the case of both - west midlands and the tees valley, the tory— west midlands and the tees valley, the tory incumbents _ west midlands and the tees valley, the tory incumbents know - west midlands and the tees valley, the tory incumbents know how- the tory incumbents know how damaging _ the tory incumbents know how damaging it _ the tory incumbents know how damaging it is _ the tory incumbents know how damaging it is to— the tory incumbents know how damaging it is to their- the tory incumbents know how. damaging it is to their prospects the tory incumbents know how- damaging it is to their prospects of elections _ damaging it is to their prospects of elections whilst _ damaging it is to their prospects of elections whilst chris, _ damaging it is to their prospects of elections whilst chris, you're - elections whilst chris, you're shaking _ elections whilst chris, you're shaking vour _ elections whilst chris, you're shaking your head. - elections whilst chris, you're shaking your head.— elections whilst chris, you're shaking your head. rishi sent an e-mail to _ shaking your head. rishi sent an e-mail to every _ shaking your head. rishi sent an e-mail to every conservative - shaking your head. rishi sent an l e-mail to every conservative voter e—mail to every conservative voter in the _ e—mail to every conservative voter in the west— e—mail to every conservative voter in the west midlands yesterday supporting andy street. i have to say, supporting andy street. i have to say. i— supporting andy street. i have to say, i have — supporting andy street. i have to say, i have been on a few doors myself— say, i have been on a few doors myself under one of apathy might win this election... myself under one of apathy might win this election. . ._ this election... boris johnson also sent a message — this election... boris johnson also sent a message out _ this election... boris johnson also sent a message out saying - this election... boris johnson also sent a message out saying forget| sent a message out saying forget westminster, vote for ben. but sent a message out saying forget westminster, vote for ben. but he is campaigning — westminster, vote for ben. but he is campaigning for— westminster, vote for ben. but he is campaigning for fellow _ campaigning for fellow conservatives, going back to the point _ conservatives, going back to the point that— conservatives, going back to the point that chris made, mayoral candidates to reflect, to have a direct _ candidates to reflect, to have a direct reflection on how your party does, _ direct reflection on how your party does. and — direct reflection on how your party does. and i— direct reflection on how your party does, and i rememberwhen boris johnson _ does, and i rememberwhen boris johnson won under david cameron's premiership. but johnson won under david cameron's premiership-— premiership. but they are different because the _ premiership. but they are different because the very _ premiership. but they are different because the very nature _ premiership. but they are different because the very nature of- premiership. but they are different because the very nature of the - premiership. but they are different i because the very nature of the model is one that emphasises the individual. you can stand a little bit above. of course, you carry the

party label but he can stand above to a greater degree. i party label but he can stand above to a greater degree.— to a greater degree. i think keir starmer and — to a greater degree. i think keir starmer and the _ to a greater degree. i think keir starmer and the labour - to a greater degree. i think keir starmer and the labour party, i to a greater degree. i think keir. starmer and the labour party, the wider— starmer and the labour party, the wider media would agree that ben houchen— wider media would agree that ben houchen is a conservative candidate and everybody knows that these the conservative candidate for tees vallev — conservative candidate for tees valle . �* �* . conservative candidate for tees valle . �* �* , ., conservative candidate for tees valle. �* �*, ., , , conservative candidate for tees valle. �* h ., , g' valley. but he's not been very keen to emphasise _ valley. but he's not been very keen to emphasise that _ valley. but he's not been very keen to emphasise that during _ valley. but he's not been very keen to emphasise that during the - valley. but he's not been very keen | to emphasise that during the course of the _ to emphasise that during the course of the contest — to emphasise that during the course of the contest.— of the contest. given the mountain that labour— of the contest. given the mountain that labour have _ of the contest. given the mountain that labour have to _ of the contest. given the mountain that labour have to club _ of the contest. given the mountain that labour have to club to - of the contest. given the mountain that labour have to club to win - of the contest. given the mountain that labour have to club to win the j that labour have to club to win the general election, shouldn't you be winning the mayoral race in the west midlands? in tees valley not long ago, the tees valley was a labour stronghold byi million miles. it’s stronghold by1 million miles. it's what we've _ stronghold byi million miles. it's what we've been talking about earlier, — what we've been talking about earlier, we _ what we've been talking about earlier, we have _ what we've been talking about earlier, we have the _ what we've been talking about earlier, we have the article . earlier, we have the article election— earlier, we have the article election but— earlier, we have the article election but we _ earlier, we have the article election but we lost, - earlier, we have the article i election but we lost, whereas earlier, we have the article - election but we lost, whereas in the last local— election but we lost, whereas in the last local elections _ election but we lost, whereas in the last local elections we _ election but we lost, whereas in the last local elections we did _ election but we lost, whereas in the last local elections we did make - last local elections we did make progress — last local elections we did make progress and _ last local elections we did make progress and i'm _ last local elections we did make progress and i'm confident - last local elections we did make progress and i'm confident we l last local elections we did make i progress and i'm confident we will make _ progress and i'm confident we will make further— progress and i'm confident we will make further progress _ progress and i'm confident we will make further progress this - progress and i'm confident we will i make further progress this evening, and it's— make further progress this evening, and it's clear— make further progress this evening, and it's clear to— make further progress this evening, and it's clear to me _ make further progress this evening, and it's clear to me from _ and it's clear to me from campaigning _ and it's clear to me from campaigning that - and it's clear to me from campaigning that we - and it's clear to me from campaigning that we are| and it's clear to me from - campaigning that we are making progress — campaigning that we are making progress in _ campaigning that we are making progress in those _ campaigning that we are making progress in those key _ campaigning that we are making progress in those key marginal. campaigning that we are making - progress in those key marginal seats for the _ progress in those key marginal seats for the general— progress in those key marginal seats for the general election, _ progress in those key marginal seats for the general election, but- progress in those key marginal seats for the general election, but the - for the general election, but the scale _ for the general election, but the scale of— for the general election, but the scale of the _ for the general election, but the scale of the swing _ for the general election, but the scale of the swing required - for the general election, but the scale of the swing required in. for the general election, but the i scale of the swing required in order to take _ scale of the swing required in order to take that— scale of the swing required in order to take that is— scale of the swing required in order to take that is 23%, _ scale of the swing required in order to take that is 23%, that's - scale of the swing required in order to take that is 23%, that's really. to take that is 23%, that's really bil to take that is 23%, that's really big swing — to take that is 23%, that's really big swing that _ to take that is 23%, that's really big swing that would _ to take that is 23%, that's really big swing that would be - to take that is 23%, that's really.

big swing that would be required. and winning — big swing that would be required. and winning those _ big swing that would be required. and winning those parliamentary| and winning those parliamentary seats _ and winning those parliamentary seats would _ and winning those parliamentary seats would require _ and winning those parliamentary seats would require the - and winning those parliamentary seats would require the level- and winning those parliamentary seats would require the level of. seats would require the level of swing — seats would require the level of swing but _ seats would require the level of swing but the _ seats would require the level of swing. but the conservatives i seats would require the level ofi swing. but the conservatives are very keen — swing. but the conservatives are very keen to _ swing. but the conservatives are very keen to talk— swing. but the conservatives are very keen to talk about - swing. but the conservatives are very keen to talk about tees - swing. but the conservatives are i very keen to talk about tees valley in order— very keen to talk about tees valley in order to — very keen to talk about tees valley in order to distract _ very keen to talk about tees valley in order to distract from _ very keen to talk about tees valley in order to distract from the - very keen to talk about tees valley in order to distract from the wider. in order to distract from the wider picture _ in order to distract from the wider picture that — in order to distract from the wider picture that we _ in order to distract from the wider picture that we are _ in order to distract from the wider picture that we are likely- in order to distract from the wider picture that we are likely to - in order to distract from the wider picture that we are likely to see i picture that we are likely to see across— picture that we are likely to see across the — picture that we are likely to see across the country— picture that we are likely to see across the country this - picture that we are likely to see| across the country this evening, which _ across the country this evening, which is — across the country this evening, which is labour— across the country this evening, which is labour making - across the country this evening, l which is labour making significant progress — which is labour making significant progress in — which is labour making significant progress in areas _ which is labour making significant progress in areas of _ which is labour making significant progress in areas of the _ which is labour making significant progress in areas of the country i which is labour making significant| progress in areas of the country in the north, — progress in areas of the country in the north, the _ progress in areas of the country in the north, the south, _ progress in areas of the country in the north, the south, across - progress in areas of the country in the north, the south, across the l the north, the south, across the midlands — the north, the south, across the midlands in _ the north, the south, across the midlands in order— the north, the south, across the midlands in order to _ the north, the south, across the midlands in order to win- midlands in order to win parliamentary— midlands in order to win- parliamentary constituencies. but the truth is _ parliamentary constituencies. the truth is that you would parliamentary constituencies.- the truth is that you would dearly love to be showing progress and taking mayoral races. i love to be showing progress and taking mayoral races.— love to be showing progress and taking mayoral races. i want to win everywhere. _ taking mayoral races. i want to win everywhere. of _ taking mayoral races. i want to win everywhere, of course _ taking mayoral races. i want to win everywhere, of course i _ taking mayoral races. i want to win everywhere, of course i do. - taking mayoral races. i want to win everywhere, of course i do. i- taking mayoral races. i want to win everywhere, of course i do. ijust l everywhere, of course i do. i 'ust wondered. — everywhere, of course i do. i 'ust wondered, listening i everywhere, of course i do. i 'ust wondered, listening to i everywhere, of course i do. i 'ust wondered, listening to those i everywhere, of course i do.- wondered, listening to those two, mayoralty is one thing and those results are not going to come into friday, then saturday afternoon so we will have to wait for andy street, are you confident that the lib dems, used to have this reputation as being a challenging party and being able to rush in when others were in trouble. do you think you will be able to show that tonight? you will be able to show that toniaht? . you will be able to show that toniaht? , . , . ., tonight? yes, we have 'ust made our first aain tonight? yes, we have 'ust made our first gain as— tonight? yes, we have 'ust made our first gain as well. _ tonight? yes, we havejust made our

first gain as well. whereas _ tonight? yes, we havejust made our first gain as well. whereas that - first gain as well. whereas that whichever _ first gain as well. whereas that whichever it _ first gain as well. whereas that whichever it is _ first gain as well. whereas that whichever it is in _ first gain as well. whereas that | whichever it is in leicestershire, where there has been a county council by—election. we won a seat from the tories with a 14% swing in the new parametric constituency of hinckley and bosworth where we have been putting pressure on the conservatives and that's the pattern you're going to see over the next 2a to 48 hours. you're going to see over the next 24 to 48 hours. the you're going to see over the next 24 to 48 hours-— you're going to see over the next 24 to 48 hours. the areas we're looking to 48 hours. the areas we're looking to ut to 48 hours. the areas we're looking to put pressure _ to 48 hours. the areas we're looking to put pressure on _ to 48 hours. the areas we're looking to put pressure on the _ to 48 hours. the areas we're looking to put pressure on the conservatives come the general election, we will be making progress and we will be making gains and that's what you need to. �* . making gains and that's what you need to. �* , ., making gains and that's what you need to. �*, ., . . need to. let's two sonia sodha, chief leader _ need to. let's two sonia sodha, chief leader writer _ need to. let's two sonia sodha, chief leader writer for _ need to. let's two sonia sodha, chief leader writer for the - chief leader writer for the observer. we have been talking a lot about the mayoral races, we'd be talking about the pressure specifically on the conservatives a lot. you understand what the labour party are extremely well. talk as to what is a realistic expectation, from the labour party and what they would be disappointed by what they would be disappointed by what they would be disappointed by what they would be pleased by. itruieiiii. would be disappointed by what they would be pleased by.— would be pleased by. well, i think there is a bit _ would be pleased by. well, i think there is a bit of— would be pleased by. well, i think there is a bit of a _ would be pleased by. well, i think there is a bit of a spectrum - would be pleased by. well, i think there is a bit of a spectrum for- would be pleased by. well, i thinkj there is a bit of a spectrum for the labour party and i think there are lots of different things going on,

as he been talking about. the hulk as he been talking about. the hulk as a result, high profile mayoral elections, then a labour victory in either the west midlands for example or in tees valley, that could sort of shift some of the narrative we are seeing over the next 24 hours, but one of the key things to look for will be the bbc calculations on the projected national vote share based on the local election results. i think labour will be looking to show that lead we are seeing in the polls is actually filtering through to election results, when you're talking about the project national vote share. talking about the pro'ect national vote share. �* . talking about the pro'ect national vote share. . . ,, talking about the pro'ect national vote mitt talking about the pro'ect national vote sheet talking about the pro'ect national vote share. . . ,, . , vote share. and that pns as we call it, we will probably _ vote share. and that pns as we call it, we will probably have _ vote share. and that pns as we call it, we will probably have some - vote share. and that pns as we callj it, we will probably have some time tomorrow afternoon when we had a chance to put enough results into a giant calculator to come up with something that is credible. last yearin something that is credible. last year in the pns, labour was ahead by

9% were the national polls imply they should be a fair amount further forward than that. yes, they do. but what you've got to take into account when you're looking at what's going on... . . when you're looking at what's going on... .. . . on... the fact that there are fewer seats on. .. the fact that there are fewer seats u- on... the fact that there are fewer seats up for _ on... the fact that there are fewer seats up for grabs _ on... the fact that there are fewer seats up for grabs in _ on... the fact that there are fewer seats up for grabs in terms - on... the fact that there are fewer seats up for grabs in terms of - on... the fact that there are fewer| seats up for grabs in terms of local election seats, so that local councillors, and also a lot of the elections taking place at the local level are in areas where labour are already in control of the council. so i think that's right, so a good night would be the making gains in that 9% lead that we saw a year ago, but i think it would be too high an expectation to think that the poll lead we are seeing would translate itself into that vote share, so it's probably higher than 9% that they

will be looking at for a good night, but lower where the poll lead as. sonia sodha, thanks very much. in the last few minutes, we can tell you that labour have taken another ward for the conservatives in sunderland, such as building their lead there. remember, they didn't have to change the council, they've been holding it already, they didn't have to grab it from the conservatives, but they have taken another ward in sunderland. which at this stage is still the only council result we have got. just to remind you, because sonia sodha mac —— sono sophie becker protected —— about the projected national share, that's what can tell us what would happen if these elections had been fought everywhere in the uk. so it doesn't tell us what the general election result is going to be but it gives us a picture of a snapshot of what the results would have been in terms of share for all of the parties if the general election, if these council elections had taken place in every corner of the country. that's my little health warning for you on

the pns, as colour, which we will have some time tomorrow. the second we will be back in blackpool south to check end there. chris, in terms of the vote share, there really is what the political parties will be eager to see, potentially thrilled or horrified by.— eager to see, potentially thrilled or horrified by. yes, because they can measure _ or horrified by. yes, because they can measure the _ or horrified by. yes, because they can measure the current - or horrified by. yes, because they l can measure the current popularity, but also look back and see the rights of progress or decline from last year's local elections and previous ones, and benchmark that with how the performance is now, therefore could be at the general election. again, by looking at how that compares to the kind of church that compares to the kind of church that reeta was showing us earlier. one other thing to quickly mention, i'm hearing from several sources that quite a lot of accounting in lots of places is taking longer than had been anticipated courtesy of the fact we have so many different elections: which makes thejob fact we have so many different elections: which makes the job of those doing that arithmetic even

more complicated. were talking earlier about blackpool where they thought they might be approaching finishing but i hear they haven't even started yet. i finishing but i hear they haven't even started yet.— even started yet. i will get the coffee on! _ even started yet. i will get the coffee on! but _ even started yet. i will get the coffee on! but there _ even started yet. i will get the coffee on! but there are - even started yet. i will get the | coffee on! but there are plenty even started yet. i will get the i coffee on! but there are plenty of things we can talk about because the overall political context in an election year is endlessly fascinating if you are as inclined as i am. there is tonnes to talk through. just to go back to that concept of share. last year, the gap between the two big parties was 9%. if you compare it to 1996, i knew it wasn't going to be long before we started having historical comparisons, in 1996, the share, labour was 16% ahead in the local elections. do you think there will be anything like that tonight? it's sort of parlour game where people say, is it more like 1997 or milik

another year?— say, is it more like 1997 or milik another ear? . ., . another year? and that parlour game is key because _ another year? and that parlour game is key because you _ another year? and that parlour game is key because you do _ another year? and that parlour game is key because you do get _ another year? and that parlour game is key because you do get a - is key because you do get a comparison. these comparisons are never perfect and politically, things have changed since the 19905, the significance of parties other than the labour party is in the conservatives are much greater right now. the key thing in the end it's going to be from labour's perspectives and indeed for the conservatives, is, does this set of data and particular that projected national share, data and particular that projected nationalshare, point data and particular that projected national share, point to reflect what we are seeing in the polls and point to and reflect therefore, if you are looking at those opinion polls and looking at the so—called pns, but there is a reasonable prospect of a change in government come the general election? we should emphasise, it is a point that you and i say all the time, we have all the different we have had this stack of opinion polls suggesting that labour are by of opinion polls suggesting that labourare bya of opinion polls suggesting that labour are by a country mile ahead but they have one heck of a mountain to overcome to even snow delegates

take over the line with even the tiniest of majorities. keir starmer has to perform better in terms of a swing than tony blair managed in 1997. so does the scale of the challenge that labour face. and that's why looking at that number whenever we get it in the middle of what is now this afternoon, friday afternoon, that will be a key mood maker even though as we know there are several or indeed lots more results to come. beyond that point, throughout the weekend.— results to come. beyond that point, throughout the weekend. thank you, chris. we have _ throughout the weekend. thank you, chris. we have talked _ throughout the weekend. thank you, chris. we have talked a _ throughout the weekend. thank you, chris. we have talked a lot _ throughout the weekend. thank you, chris. we have talked a lot about - chris. we have talked a lot about blackpool south, let's go there and talk to the candidate who has been standing with the hope of becoming reform gus macpherson p. how do you think you have done? bend reform gus macpherson p. how do you think you have done?— think you have done? and quietly confident. think you have done? and quietly confident- -- _ think you have done? and quietly confident. -- becoming - think you have done? and quietly confident. -- becoming reform'sj confident. —— becoming reform's first mp~ — confident. —— becoming reform's first mp. sorry, can you tell me the question— first mp. sorry, can you tell me the question again? you

first mp. sorry, can you tell me the question again?— question again? you say you are auietl question again? you say you are quietly confident, _ question again? you say you are quietly confident, but _ question again? you say you are quietly confident, but of - question again? you say you are quietly confident, but of what? l question again? you say you are i quietly confident, but of what? we are quietly confident of making a good _ are quietly confident of making a good showing here today in blackpool south _ good showing here today in blackpool south. and good showing here today in blackpool south. �* ., good showing here today in blackpool south. . . , ., ., . south. and a good showing would mean that ou south. and a good showing would mean that you have — south. and a good showing would mean that you have made _ south. and a good showing would mean that you have made it _ south. and a good showing would mean that you have made it potentially - that you have made it potentially into second place behind labour, head of the conservatives? that would be a _ head of the conservatives? that would be a fantastic _ head of the conservatives? that would be a fantastic showing. but i'm would be a fantastic showing. but im here — would be a fantastic showing. but im here to— would be a fantastic showing. but i'm here to win it, so i have to be honest— i'm here to win it, so i have to be honest with — i'm here to win it, so i have to be honest with you and say i'm here today— honest with you and say i'm here today to — honest with you and say i'm here today to win this by—election. and today to win this by-election. and from what you _ today to win this by—election. this from what you have heard so far and having been out on the doorsteps, and i'm sure looking at the votes as they are being verified and beginning to be counted tonight, what do you think is a realistic outcome? you said you were there to win, that would be an enormous surprise to everybody, but there have been some possibilities or expectation that you might sneak into second, so what's realistic, you think?— into second, so what's realistic, outhink? . , . ,, you think? well, realistic is second lace, you think? well, realistic is second place. yes. — you think? well, realistic is second place. yes. of— you think? well, realistic is second place, yes, of course. _ you think? well, realistic is second place, yes, of course. but - you think? well, realistic is second

place, yes, of course. but as - you think? well, realistic is second place, yes, of course. but as i - you think? well, realistic is second place, yes, of course. but as i say, i place, yes, of course. but as i say, i am _ place, yes, of course. but as i say, i am here _ place, yes, of course. but as i say, i am here to — place, yes, of course. but as i say, i am here to win this by—election for the _ i am here to win this by—election for the good people of blackpool south _ for the good people of blackpool south. ~ , ., i. for the good people of blackpool south. ~ , ., ,, ~' for the good people of blackpool south. ~ , ., i. ,, i” for the good people of blackpool south. ~ , ., ~' . south. why do you think you have been able to _ south. why do you think you have been able to appeal _ south. why do you think you have been able to appeal to _ south. why do you think you have been able to appeal to them? - south. why do you think you have l been able to appeal to them? well, because first _ been able to appeal to them? well, because first of _ been able to appeal to them? well, because first of all, _ been able to appeal to them? well, because first of all, people - been able to appeal to them? well, because first of all, people in - because first of all, people in blackpool are fed up. we are sick and tired — blackpool are fed up. we are sick and tired of the false promises by the labour— and tired of the false promises by the labour council we have dealt with here — the labour council we have dealt with here for the last 12 years, by the conservative government that have just — the conservative government that have just failed us in every single way~ _ have just failed us in every single way we — have just failed us in every single way. we had three local mps, conservative mps here who have failed _ conservative mps here who have failed the — conservative mps here who have failed the people blackpool and we are fed _ failed the people blackpool and we are fed up with it. i think that's why i_ are fed up with it. i think that's why i appeal to people because it's common— why i appeal to people because it's common sense policies for common—sense people with reform uk. chris mason— common—sense people with reform uk. chris mason here, good evening. i wonder, when you have been out and about knocking on doors and talking to people, those who have said they would be willing to support you, where they have said their political support has been in the past. are

you attracting former conservative voters mainly, are labour voters? where do you think about coming from? late where do you think about coming from? ~ ., where do you think about coming from? . . _, . where do you think about coming from? ~ . . ., , ., from? we are collecting votes from both sides of _ from? we are collecting votes from both sides of the _ from? we are collecting votes from both sides of the party. _ from? we are collecting votes from both sides of the party. i've - from? we are collecting votes from both sides of the party. i've spokenj both sides of the party. i've spoken to data _ both sides of the party. i've spoken to data many labour supporters who revolted _ to data many labour supporters who revolted bad particularly, in the conservative heartlands, that's where — conservative heartlands, that's where i— conservative heartlands, that's where i think we are having the most impact _ where i think we are having the most impact the — where i think we are having the most impact. the story on the door, people — impact. the story on the door, people are _ impact. the story on the door, people are talking about coming out in their— people are talking about coming out in their droves.— in their droves. what do you say... we have heard _ in their droves. what do you say... we have heard from _ in their droves. what do you say... we have heard from chris - we have heard from chris heaton—harris, what do you say to the suggestion that a vote for reform at the general election is effectively a vote to put keir starmer in downing street? is that something you would comfortable with? ., . . . ., with? not at all. well, he would say that. it depends _ with? not at all. well, he would say that. it depends from _ with? not at all. well, he would say that. it depends from which - with? not at all. well, he would say that. it depends from which side - with? not at all. well, he would say that. it depends from which side ofl that. it depends from which side of the spectrum you are from. i don't think— the spectrum you are from. i don't think a _ the spectrum you are from. i don't think a vote — the spectrum you are from. i don't think a vote for reform uk here in blackpool— think a vote for reform uk here in blackpool is a vote for labour or conservative. a vote for reform uk

is a vote _ conservative. a vote for reform uk is a vote for— conservative. a vote for reform uk is a vote for reform. we are the only— is a vote for reform. we are the only party— is a vote for reform. we are the only party that is committed to change — only party that is committed to change and that is what is attractive for people here in blackpool south. we are fed up. we've _ blackpool south. we are fed up. we've had — blackpool south. we are fed up. we've had enough.— blackpool south. we are fed up. we've had enough. mark richard, thank ou we've had enough. mark richard, thank you for— we've had enough. mark richard, thank you forjoining _ we've had enough. mark richard, thank you forjoining us. - we've had enough. mark richard, thank you forjoining us. we - we've had enough. mark richard, thank you forjoining us. we will. we've had enough. mark richard, | thank you forjoining us. we will be backin thank you forjoining us. we will be back in blackpool. the enthusiastic lib dem activists trying to get in the shop find you there. chris heaton—harris, he says people are totally fed up, what do you say to that? ., . ., , that? local elections in the by-elections _ that? local elections in the by-elections always - that? local elections in the by-elections always do - that? local elections in the | by-elections always do have that? local elections in the - by-elections always do have much by—elections always do have much lower— by—elections always do have much lower turnout, that demonstrates a type of— lower turnout, that demonstrates a type of apathy which you could class being _ type of apathy which you could class being fed _ type of apathy which you could class being fed up and i think people do want to— being fed up and i think people do want to see politicians delivering on the _ want to see politicians delivering on the promises they have made, that's— on the promises they have made, that's why— on the promises they have made, that's why rishi made five commitments when he came in, i think we can— commitments when he came in, i think we can safely— commitments when he came in, i think we can safely say that the pledge on halving _ we can safely say that the pledge on halving inflation has happened because — halving inflation has happened because we come from over 11% to

'ust because we come from over 11% to just over— because we come from over 11% to just over 3%, one 0 because we come from over 11"/ to just over 3%, one of because we come from over 11% to just over 3%, one of the most important _ just over 3%, one of the most important ones and that was stopping the boats. _ important ones and that was stopping the boats, we haven't been able to do that— the boats, we haven't been able to do that yet. — the boats, we haven't been able to do that yet, we have this rwanda policy _ do that yet, we have this rwanda policy that — do that yet, we have this rwanda policy that labour and the lib dems are constantly voting against which is now _ are constantly voting against which is now obviously having a deterrent effect _ is now obviously having a deterrent effect or— is now obviously having a deterrent effect or perceived deterrent effect amongst _ effect or perceived deterrent effect amongst those coming here illegally. so we _ amongst those coming here illegally. so we welcome i think, start to see delivery— so we welcome i think, start to see delivery on — so we welcome i think, start to see delivery on that and in all of our other— delivery on that and in all of our other pledges. delivery on that and in all of our other pledges-— delivery on that and in all of our other pledges. you mentioned the deterrent effect _ other pledges. you mentioned the deterrent effect of _ other pledges. you mentioned the deterrent effect of the _ other pledges. you mentioned the deterrent effect of the rwanda - deterrent effect of the rwanda policy. in your role as northern ireland policy, as we have got you here, ireland and the uk have been having, as we understand, some quite tricky discussions about what to do about people who appear to have been going from northern ireland into ireland in the south, what are you going to do about it?— ireland in the south, what are you going to do about it? well, firstly, this is a perceived _ going to do about it? well, firstly, this is a perceived deterrent - this is a perceived deterrent effectm _ this is a perceived deterrent effect... 50 this is a perceived deterrent effect... h this is a perceived deterrent effect... v ., this is a perceived deterrent effect- - -_ lt - this is a perceived deterrent effect...— it is. effect... so it's not... it is always— effect... so it's not... it is always a _ effect... so it's not... it is always a working - effect... so it's not... it is always a working and - effect... so it's not... it is always a working and i - effect... so it's not... it is- always a working and i believe there have been— always a working and i believe there have been interviews with people who have been interviews with people who have said _ have been interviews with people who have said they have gone to ireland

to claim _ have said they have gone to ireland to claim asylum there because of our rwanda _ to claim asylum there because of our rwanda policy. there is common travel— rwanda policy. there is common travel area — rwanda policy. there is common travel area which is extremely important _ travel area which is extremely important across ireland and northern ireland which means there is no border, because of the belfast good _ is no border, because of the belfast good friday agreement, there is no border. _ good friday agreement, there is no border, there should be because of the windsor framework, so we need to work to— the windsor framework, so we need to work to make _ the windsor framework, so we need to work to make sure, i've had a very good _ work to make sure, i've had a very good conversation with the deputy prime _ good conversation with the deputy prime minister of ireland yesterday about— prime minister of ireland yesterday about trying to make sure that the common— about trying to make sure that the common travel area's exterior borders— common travel area's exterior borders are protected. by common travel area's exterior borders are protected.- common travel area's exterior borders are protected. by the irish government _ borders are protected. by the irish government has _ borders are protected. by the irish government has said _ borders are protected. by the irish government has said there - borders are protected. by the irish government has said there is - borders are protected. by the irish government has said there is an i government has said there is an agreement with the uk that could allow them to return asylum seekers to the uk and the uk said it has no legal obligation to do that, so what are you going to do about it? it seems to be a stand—off. are you going to do about it? it seems to be a stand-off. there is no leeal seems to be a stand-off. there is no legal obligation _ seems to be a stand-off. there is no legal obligation and _ seems to be a stand-off. there is no legal obligation and all— seems to be a stand-off. there is no legal obligation and all the _ seems to be a stand-off. there is no legal obligation and all the time - legal obligation and all the time this agreement has been going on, think— this agreement has been going on, think on— this agreement has been going on, think on the one asylum seeker has gone _ think on the one asylum seeker has gone in _ think on the one asylum seeker has gone in any— think on the one asylum seeker has gone in any direction. so that's the point _ gone in any direction. so that's the point here. — gone in any direction. so that's the point here, we need to work with our

colleagues _ point here, we need to work with our colleagues in ireland to make sure that the _ colleagues in ireland to make sure that the common travel area, its external— that the common travel area, its external borders are protected. he said external borders are protected. he. said the external borders are protected. he: said the deterrent effect is clearly working. anyone who is watching the news will have seen that 711 migrants crossed the channel yesterday, that's the highest daily total so far this year. a total for this year is more than 8000 people, that's an increase of a third on the equivalent period of last year. so if the deterrent effect is working, how does that stack up with the wreck number of people coming? there are --eole wreck number of people coming? there are people who — wreck number of people coming? there are people who are _ wreck number of people coming? there are people who are choosing to go elsewhere — are people who are choosing to go elsewhere rather than try and come to the _ elsewhere rather than try and come to the united kingdom. if elsewhere rather than try and come to the united kingdom.— elsewhere rather than try and come to the united kingdom. if they have made it to northern _ to the united kingdom. if they have made it to northern ireland, - to the united kingdom. if they have made it to northern ireland, they i made it to northern ireland, they have crossed the channel ticket to the uk and if the deterrent effect is meant to be stopping people crossing the channel, which is the dangerous journey you are the prime minister say you want to bring to an end, the highest number so far this year came yesterday.—

end, the highest number so far this year came yesterday. which is why we need to make — year came yesterday. which is why we need to make sure _ year came yesterday. which is why we need to make sure that... _ year came yesterday. which is why we need to make sure that... we - year came yesterday. which is why we need to make sure that... we see - need to make sure that... we see planes _ need to make sure that... we see planes going to the wonder with people — planes going to the wonder with people who have come here illegally. and actually, you know, what we want to make _ and actually, you know, what we want to make sure — and actually, you know, what we want to make sure is that we have the strongest — to make sure is that we have the strongest policy in this space, there — strongest policy in this space, there is— strongest policy in this space, there is a _ strongest policy in this space, there is a perceived view that this is a deterrent and labour if they wouldn't — is a deterrent and labour if they wouldn't do anything in the space and there — wouldn't do anything in the space and there amnesty that allow people to stay _ and there amnesty that allow people to stay so _ and there amnesty that allow people to stay. so you have a draw in one way and _ to stay. so you have a draw in one way and deterrent in the other. i�*m way and deterrent in the other. i'm sure we will — way and deterrent in the other. i“n sure we will come back to that throughout the night because it is something that is important to lots of photos and i'm sure a lot of you watching your site. reeta, of photos and i'm sure a lot of you watching yoursite. reeta, let's of photos and i'm sure a lot of you watching your site. reeta, let's go in behind one of the results we are getting. in newcastle, they are still counting but we can have a look at some of the numbers. the nieht is look at some of the numbers. the night is young _ look at some of the numbers. tie: night is young so if look at some of the numbers. ti9 night is young so if we can go over what we have, but this is an interesting set of figures. they are still counting in newcastle, you can see we have got three seats in. this is the shape of change since the

last time these seats were voted on. change since 2021 which is the last time these seats were up. all three seats are labour holds but you can see that the labour vote share has gone up by 1%, one percentage points since 2021. conservatives, massively down at —10%. and looking has benefited, the lib dems and the greens. one of these three seats is in a ward called southjesmond, which is quite a student dominated area. is that a factor in the shape of this? we will be watching newcastle very closely. it is a labour council and has been since 2011. it was lib dem before then. welcome back to this once we got some more of those seats in. if you want to know more about what's going on tonight, you can of course go to the bbc website and you will get all

sorts of information about results, analysis, you can put your postcode in and find out what's going on in your own council. you can find it at this address but also because on news app. this address but also because on news a- -. :. this address but also because on newsau. :, :, , this address but also because on newsan“ ., ., , . news app. reeta, thanks very much. brideet, news app. reeta, thanks very much. bridget. that's _ news app. reeta, thanks very much. bridget, that's not _ news app. reeta, thanks very much. bridget, that's not far _ news app. reeta, thanks very much. bridget, that's not far from - news app. reeta, thanks very much. bridget, that's not far from your - bridget, that's not far from your patch, you can see from those early results, actually potentially is a student vote, but people are choosing the greens, they are not going to you. there has always been that kind of dimension in newcastle and the cannot volatility but i would say alongside is becoming clear to us that we gained, i think we will gain the tonight.— we will gain the tonight. which would be a _ we will gain the tonight. which would be a brilliant _ we will gain the tonight. which would be a brilliant result - we will gain the tonight. which would be a brilliant result for. we will gain the tonight. which l would be a brilliant result for us. on one _ would be a brilliant result for us. on one level we can talk about one result— on one level we can talk about one result in— on one level we can talk about one result in newcastle but actually to -ain result in newcastle but actually to gain hartlepool, particularly after that devastating results in 2021, that devastating results in 2021, that would demonstrate massive progress — that would demonstrate massive progress for us. it that would demonstrate massive progress for us— that would demonstrate massive progress for us. it was a mass win, caettin progress for us. it was a mass win, getting back _ progress for us. it was a mass win, getting back hartlepool. _ progress for us. it was a mass win, getting back hartlepool. i- progress for us. it was a mass win, getting back hartlepool. i think - progress for us. it was a mass win, getting back hartlepool. i think it l getting back hartlepool. i think it would demonstrate _ getting back hartlepool. i think it would demonstrate we _ getting back hartlepool. i think it would demonstrate we are - getting back hartlepool. i think it would demonstrate we are on - getting back hartlepool. i think it l would demonstrate we are on track

getting back hartlepool. i think it - would demonstrate we are on track to form the _ would demonstrate we are on track to form the next government. gk, would demonstrate we are on track to form the next government.— form the next government. 0k, thank ou for form the next government. 0k, thank you for bringing _ form the next government. 0k, thank you for bringing us — form the next government. 0k, thank you for bringing us that _ form the next government. 0k, thank you for bringing us that snippet - form the next government. 0k, thank you for bringing us that snippet of- you for bringing us that snippet of news. we are going to say goodbye to you in a few minutes as we hurtled towards the one o'clock news. before we do, we talked a lot about the midlands and north of england, let's go to the south of england now and talk peter henley who is the political editor for bbc south. you're in the council area of rushmoor women mentioned briefly tonight. tell us why it's important. this is a labour target in the south of england, aldershot, home of the british army. people here are usually very loyal. we had a conservative mp in this constituency since 1918. continuously conservative. this council for 50 years led by conservatives. and labour are smiling tonight. the conservatives not at all happy. there's a good chance of change on this council in the south of england. and i would be very

interesting because under the leadership ofjeremy corbyn the labour vote went down. under keir starmer in a military area is looking a lot better for them. find looking a lot better for them. and that's the tory — looking a lot better for them. and that's the tory labour battle, what about the battle with the lib dems on your part of the country? melt. on your part of the country? well, away from — on your part of the country? well, away from here — on your part of the country? well, away from here there _ on your part of the country? well, away from here there is _ on your part of the country? well, away from here there is the - on your part of the country? well, away from here there is the blue l away from here there is the blue wall, dorset council, which is counting tomorrow, that's where ed davey has been visiting and a lot of campaigning going on. again, very conservative area but all the seats are up and so to play for for the lib dems, wokingham is another council there would like to have overall control, and portsmouth a similar target for them. there are four reform candidates here and that might have hit the conservative vote at rushmore. this is a fascinating council. jeremy hunt is the neighbouring

constituency in surrey and on the other side michael gove in surrey heath. they will be looking closely at labour's progress here.- at labour's progress here. peter, thank ou at labour's progress here. peter, thank you so _ at labour's progress here. peter, thank you so much. _ at labour's progress here. peter, thank you so much. it _ at labour's progress here. peter, thank you so much. it is - at labour's progress here. peter, thank you so much. it is always i at labour's progress here. peter, i thank you so much. it is always good to see people scurrying around in the background with ballot boxes looking purposeful. we hear it is taking longer because these results are a complicated jigsaw as we continue to unpick what is going on through the night, but we will bring you the results as they come in. in a secondary are going to the news, but we you for being here. let's remind you of the total is so far. not much on our giant scoreboard. you can see labour are on 16 seats, having gained three. the lib dems on three and the tories having lost three. in wins and losses we are still in single figures, a long way to go. plenty of interesting things already starting to emerge.

now it's time for the news with rajini vaidyanathan. thanks, laura. votes are being counted in the local elections in parts of england in the last major test of public opinion before the general election. labour have said they hope the results will signify "real progress", and have retained control of sunderland council in the first result declared. the conservatives have acknowledged they're expecting a "difficult evening". the outcome of the by—election in blackpool south is expected overnight and results from around a third of the councils involved. here's our political correspondent, damian grammaticus up upforgrabs in up for grabs in these elections, 2500 council seats, 11 mayoraljobs and here in blackpool south one westminster seat. some of the consequential battles tonight. labour hope they can take it off the conservatives. the labour hope they can take it off the conservatives.— conservatives. the first result we will look for _

conservatives. the first result we will look for is _ conservatives. the first result we will look for is the _ conservatives. the first result we will look for is the blackpool - will look for is the blackpool by—election which is the only result where rishi sunak and the government are really on the ballot paper and if we can gain that, that will show real progress on the way to the coming general election. labour have other targets — coming general election. labour have other targets as _ coming general election. labour have other targets as well. _ coming general election. labour have other targets as well. rushmore - coming general election. labour have other targets as well. rushmore in i other targets as well. rushmore in hampshire, southern conservative council, the conservative minister at the count, his party braced for losses of seats won back when boris johnson was prime minister. the last time most of — johnson was prime minister. the last time most of the _ johnson was prime minister. the last time most of the seats _ johnson was prime minister. the last time most of the seats were - johnson was prime minister. the last time most of the seats were fought l time most of the seats were fought was in 2021where we had a vaccine bounce as we rolled out the covid vaccine. that was our best effort at local election since 2008. that is a very high base. compared to that it is going to be difficult to achieve on that. in is going to be difficult to achieve on that. :, :, :, :, :, :, on that. in whole an alarm and an evacuation- _ on that. in whole an alarm and an evacuation. where _ on that. in whole an alarm and an evacuation. where the _ on that. in whole an alarm and an i evacuation. where the conservatives think these elections signal trouble

ahead for them will depend on the scale of any losses. in stockport where they are counting on a car park, liberal democrats could make gains from labour stop they are most focused on the places they face off with the conservatives.— with the conservatives. across the country we — with the conservatives. across the country we hear — with the conservatives. across the country we hear people _ with the conservatives. across the country we hear people are - with the conservatives. across the country we hear people are fed i with the conservatives. across the country we hear people are fed up| with the conservatives. across the i country we hear people are fed up of the conservatives and across the blue wall lifelong conservatives are switching to the liberal democrats so we are very optimistic. people want to cast a verdict on the conservatives' poor record on nhs care, on the fact that they allow water companies to pump their sewage into our rivers and the cost of living crisis.— into our rivers and the cost of living crisis. hartlepool is one lace living crisis. hartlepool is one place conservatives _ living crisis. hartlepool is one place conservatives are i living crisis. hartlepool is one i place conservatives are looking to. labour may gain control of the council but the mayoral vote should be different. that isn't being counted tonight. but what will emerge in the coming hours will paint a picture of the latest feeling right across the country. in other news john swinney looks set to become scotland's next first minister after his main potential rival, kate forbes, said she would not be

standing for the leadership of the snp and instead gave him her support. mr swinney is the only candidate to put himself forward, but nominations are open until next week. at a news conference he said he wanted to unite the party. my message is crisp and simple. i'm stepping forward to bring the snp together, to deliver economic growth and socialjustice. to deliver the very best future for everyone in a modern, dynamic, diverse scotland. i want to unite the snp and unite scotland for independence. a man has appeared in court charged with the murder of the schoolboy daniel anjorin in north—east london. daniel, who was 14, was on his way to school when he was fatally stabbed in hainault on tuesday. marcus monzo, who's 36, also faces several other charges including two counts of attempted murder.

president biden has said that he will always defend the right to free speech but that order must prevail as demonstrations continue at universities across the united states over the conflict in gaza. he was speaking after riot police moved in to dismantle a pro—palestinian camp at the university of california's los angeles campus. at least 200 people were arrested in the raid. mr biden said the rule of law must be respected. anti—war protests have spread to some 50 campus sites. while most have been peaceful, tensions have been high at a number of universities in recent days. the foreign secretary has met with president volodymyr zelensky in kyiv to discuss the military equipment being sent to ukraine by the uk. lord cameron said it would include precision—guided bombs and air defence missiles, which could be used by ukraine against targets inside russia. take that have announced they've moved some of their shows from the co—op live venue in manchester to the rival a0 arena.

for the third time on wednesday night its doors remained closed due to technical problems, with fans already queueing up outside. the venue said it would be taking a short pause and would open on may the 14th. a reminder that you can follow all the results overnight online on the bbc news website or app. you can also see who's won and where using our postcode checker which is at bbc.co.uk/new5. now back to laura and elections 2024. a very warm welcome back to election night on the bbc, 2024. we have got a complicated and fascinating jigsaw of council, mayoral and all sorts of other elections going on that you

have been voting on today. the results are starting to come into night but it will take a couple of days before the whole picture becomes clearer. with us is a panel of top politicians. we are still joined by chris heaton—harris, the northern ireland secretary, jonathan reynolds, the shadow business secretary and the liberal democrats shadow spokesperson. let's show you what is going on so far. we don't have that many results at this stage, but the conservatives have lost four council seats. labour has gained five and no change so far for the liberal democrats. there are 107 councils up for grabs that you have been voting on today, but we will only have 37 results in overnight. what we do have to hope before not too long is the result of the blackpool south by—election. it came

up blackpool south by—election. it came up for grabs and labour very much hope they will take it because the former conservative mp quit in disgrace. one of the interesting things there, and we were just hearing from the reform uk candidate, is how well they have done. how much of the conservative vote have they managed to eat into? he suggested potentially they might get the tories into second place. that would be a big deal and would spook conservative mps. let's see what happens and we will be back in blackpool south before too long. some of the counters are sitting around but we think the count has not got under way. let's take you to exeter in the south—west. concentrating hard on their clipboards, that is what we like to see. that is the kind of place where labour will want to show that they are doing ok. the greens have been eating into their majority over the last few years. the green candidate is concentrating hard on what is happening. let's go to plymouth.

labour took that last year after splits in the conservative group. there was a huge local row about trees in the city. politics is local, they say. but it is a very interesting place in the context of what happens on the council because right now the two westminster seats are held by one conservative, johnny mercer, the veterans minister, and luke pollard, the shadow defence team. that will be very tightly fought in the general election, so we will be keeping a close eye on what happens there, notjust because of the local council, but because of the context as well. rushmore is a council in hampshire. as we were hearing from peter henley on the ground a few minutes ago just before the news, labour is hopeful of taking that council. it would matter notjust because it is labour taking a counsel in the south of england, which is notable in and of itself

given what has happened in the last few years, but also because it has the town of aldershot which is the home of much of the british military. if you think how hard keir starmer has worked to try to say that labour is a party that can be trusted with the country's security, it will be interesting to see what happens in that part of the world. let's go to bolton. that has been a labour minority council. they are short of four seats. at the moment there is a mixture of labour and conservative seats in bolton. that is one of those places where we will be looking at what happens to the votes from muslim constituents. you might think why are people picking out one particular group? we know that has been particularly of interest because there has been a lot of unhappiness particularly among the muslim community, but also with other labour voters over keir starmer�*s position on the conflict in gaza and his refusal to call for

an immediate ceasefire. that is why we are looking at that particular group of voters and we will see if there is a discernible trend there overnight. let's go to grimsby. this is like an a to z of the country. on the coast of the east of england. conservative mp5 there. but labour are hoping very much to make progress on the council of north east lincolnshire. i am sure we will be talking to our colleagues on the ground. the tories have to defend nearly all of the seats being contested to hold on. right now, two tory mp5 and the council has been held by the tories since 2012. but north east lincolnshire should be in theory and labour's sites to show progress, if the national polls are to be believed. somewhere where labour should be feeling good is redditch in the midlands. just

outside the west midlands mayoralty area. redditch is the kind of part of the country again where labour really ought to be making convincing gains and we understand redditch is on their target list. somewhere that has been on their target and we will hearfrom bridget phillips has been on their target and we will hear from bridget phillips and that they believe they have taken that counsel, hartlepool. my colleague is there for us. our labour confirming that on the ground to you? yes. there for us. our labour confirming that on the ground to you? yes, they are officially — that on the ground to you? yes, they are officially claiming _ that on the ground to you? yes, they are officially claiming victory - that on the ground to you? yes, they are officially claiming victory in - are officially claiming victory in hartlepool. we don't have the official result yet. we had hoped we would get the declaration by half past one. but labour believe they have done enough to in hartlepool. they were confident they would be able to do so. the maths was in their favour, able to do so. the maths was in theirfavour, they able to do so. the maths was in their favour, they were only defending two of the 12 seats. they believe they have taken a majority.

a labour party spokesperson said, when in hartlepool council is a ground—breaking moment after the disappointing results we saw here in 2021. labour claiming victory. we don't have an official result yet, it might be a good hour or so before we hear that. if labour are right that they have one in hartlepool, it would mean that they would have the first woman to lead this council. labour confirming that they have taken hartlepool council. we were talking about what was happening in the north—east. reeta, let's go to a different part of the country. where can you show us what is going on? hertfordshire. a tory stronghold. and it is but some interesting stuff going on. let me show you where it is. there you go. this is broxbourne in hertfordshire. it is very true

blue. it has been conservative for the last 50 years and it still is. the conservatives could not lose this council tonight. they needed 16 seats and as you can see they have got 27. it is interesting to see what has happened to the share of the vote. look at that. down 13 percentage points since three years ago which is the last time the seats were counted. look who has benefited. labour up by 5%. the greens are up by 9%. really interesting to see the conservatives going backwards in one of their heartlands. a little earlier we were talking about newcastle and i promise to update you. we have now got six seats counted here. they are still counting as you can see. let's take a look at the share of the vote. interesting. labour down a bit, the conservatives down 8% and it is the greens and the liberal

democrats who again are benefiting. i can tell you that the greens have taken a ward of labour as well within that. we will keep an eye on everything that is going on. i am being told the lib dems have also taken two sees as well off labour. we will keep coming back and i will bring you more. that we will keep coming back and i will bring you more-— we will keep coming back and i will bring you more. that is interesting. where the lib _ bring you more. that is interesting. where the lib dems _ bring you more. that is interesting. where the lib dems and _ bring you more. that is interesting. where the lib dems and the - bring you more. that is interesting. j where the lib dems and the greens have taken seats is an area with a high muslim population. we were saying there is a reason why we are picking out that a group of voters. it might seem strange, but there is a specific reason. how concerned is labour hq about that? thea;r a specific reason. how concerned is labour hq about that?— labour hq about that? they are nervous about _ labour hq about that? they are nervous about it, _ labour hq about that? they are nervous about it, not _ labour hq about that? they are nervous about it, not least i labour hq about that? they are . nervous about it, not least because tonight and the coming days might offer a greater picture than they have been afforded so far because of the scale and range of electoral contests we will get results from.

the extent to which they are losing support amongst people particularly in areas where there is a significant muslim population who have not liked keir starmer�*s attitude towards the conflict in the middle east. in the view of some within the labour party there has been a desire that they would have a bolder position on calling for a ceasefire sooner. labour will be conscious of keeping an eye on that. in the way we have talked about the threat the conservatives face from reform and the fear from their perspective that whilst reform might not win many seats, they could take significant votes from them and allow labour to win, the fear for labour would be that that could have a similar impact on them. on the whole the seats tend to be in areas where labour and parliamentary terms performs very well and therefore the scope for them to lose voters is

significant. on a very live, hugely contentious topic that for some people is very important as to how they might vote, let's see as the night goes on if the likes of that result that we have just seen in newcastle plays out around the country. it newcastle plays out around the count . , , , , country. it is interesting because traditionally _ country. it is interesting because traditionally there _ country. it is interesting because traditionally there have - country. it is interesting because traditionally there have been - country. it is interesting because l traditionally there have been some moments where it has made a very big difference, traditionally a foreign policy is not often something that shifts a significant numbers of votes in the uk.— shifts a significant numbers of votes in the uk. ,, �* , votes in the uk. quite. and yet here we have something _ votes in the uk. quite. and yet here we have something going _ votes in the uk. quite. and yet here we have something going on - votes in the uk. quite. and yet here we have something going on in - votes in the uk. quite. and yet here we have something going on in the l we have something going on in the middle east in the last six or seven months that has been hugely dominated in terms of headlines that has hugely polarised and angered many people, where there is every prospect that that conflict will remain salient and newsworthy in the months in the countdown to the general election. i was in rochdale

covering the by—election, another area in greater manchester with a significant muslim population and, yes, there is that sense that so often it is all about the domestic when it comes to elections. my goodness, covering the by—election it was very abundantly clear, but an interesting one and where there are similarities elsewhere, that the situation in the middle east became really big for a lot of people. let's put that to jonathan reynolds. welcome to you and sarah joining us and chris in the studio. was keir starmer�*s initial approach to the conflict in israel actually too strident and not sympathetic enough to the concerns of some of your muslim voters? it to the concerns of some of your muslim voters?— muslim voters? it was the right stance but _ muslim voters? it was the right stance but there _ muslim voters? it was the right stance but there is _ muslim voters? it was the right stance but there is no - muslim voters? it was the right stance but there is no doubt. muslim voters? it was the right stance but there is no doubt it. muslim voters? it was the right i stance but there is no doubt it has had some problems for us. that can be the case in politics. you have always got to caveat that by saying any community in this country is not

the monolithic one, there is diversity in the community, you should not treat with one group of people with a common view. i think younger british muslim voters, we have seen that in this campaign, but we will work harder to win the trust of those people back. i would not say should we have had a different stance on that? there is a very difficult conflict and there are limitations on what any british politician can do to bring this horrendous situation to close. but it has been a difficult part of the campaign. it has been a difficult part of the cam-rain, ., , it has been a difficult part of the camaiun. ., , it has been a difficult part of the camaiun. , , campaign. nobody can deny the sensitivity of — campaign. nobody can deny the sensitivity of the _ campaign. nobody can deny the sensitivity of the issues - campaign. nobody can deny the l sensitivity of the issues involved, but you have seen over time that keir starmer�*s approach has come closer to people in the party who were unhappy with his use of language, particularly in one interview at the beginning where he talked about israel's right to self—defence and some of its tactics. do you think you should do more notjust to work tactics. do you think you should do more not just to work with voters

who are disaffected by it, but to show some acknowledgement to them that he acknowledges he really upsets some people? fill" that he acknowledges he really upsets some people? our position is the riaht upsets some people? our position is the right one. _ upsets some people? our position is the right one. to _ upsets some people? our position is the right one, to call— upsets some people? our position is the right one, to call for— upsets some people? our position is the right one, to call for an - the right one, to call for an immediate ceasefire. aid has to get into gaza, we want to see this conflict come to an end but there are two sides to a conflict and both have to agree to a ceasefire. if only we could bring those two size to a ceasefire, that is what we would want to do. we did have to clarify. but i would say again there are no easy positions on a conflict which is so long—running, polarised and so difficult. i understand how strongly people feel and i imagine all of us feel strongly about the conflict. ., .., . all of us feel strongly about the conflict. ., . ., . ., all of us feel strongly about the conflict. ., . ., conflict. how concerned are you about using _ conflict. how concerned are you about using significant - conflict. how concerned are you about using significant numbers conflict. how concerned are you i about using significant numbers of voters tonight because of what has happened? we voters tonight because of what has ha--ened? ~ . voters tonight because of what has ha ened? ~ ., ., voters tonight because of what has ha--ened? ~ ., ., , voters tonight because of what has ha ened? ~ ., ., , ., voters tonight because of what has ha--ened? ~ ., ., , ., , happened? we want to see not 'ust success in happened? we want to see not 'ust in the fi happened? we want to see not 'ust success in the context i happened? we want to see not 'ust success in the context tonight, h happened? we want to see notjust success in the context tonight, but| success in the context tonight, but progress towards labour winning support in the areas of the country we have to win in order to form a

government. every voter in those areas is important to us. when we get the aggregate results, when we get the aggregate results, when we get the aggregate results, when we get the full picture, we will see the progress being made. that is a test for labour. the the progress being made. that is a test for labour.— test for labour. the full set of results will _ test for labour. the full set of results will take _ test for labour. the full set of results will take some - test for labour. the full set of results will take some time. l test for labour. the full set of. results will take some time. just test for labour. the full set of- results will take some time. just to results will take some time. just to remind you of some of the chronology. we will get a lot of the council results tonight. we will get the blackpool south by—election tonight and possibly one police and crime commissioner tonight, but a lot of them will come in tomorrow. the big mayoral result in tees valley will be tomorrow afternoon. the west midlands mayoral result will be saturday afternoon. and if you are still with me by then, the london mayoral result will be on saturday night. this is an election weekend. glorious political staff. reeta was showing as the result in newcastle. do you think you have been able to profit because of some

of the difficulties we have been talking about with jonathan? i don't want to think _ talking about with jonathan? i don't want to think about _ talking about with jonathan? i don't want to think about it _ talking about with jonathan? i don't want to think about it in _ talking about with jonathan? i don't want to think about it in those - want to think about it in those terms — want to think about it in those terms. what is going on in the middle — terms. what is going on in the middle east right now is horrific and a _ middle east right now is horrific and a lot— middle east right now is horrific and a lot of people in this country feel incredibly strongly about it. earlier_ feel incredibly strongly about it. earlier today i was trying to get the vote — earlier today i was trying to get the vote out in my own seat in richmond _ the vote out in my own seat in richmond park and there was a lady there _ richmond park and there was a lady there who _ richmond park and there was a lady there who told me that this was the most _ there who told me that this was the most important issue to her and that would _ most important issue to her and that would he _ most important issue to her and that would be how she was casting her vote _ would be how she was casting her vote it _ would be how she was casting her vote it is — would be how she was casting her vote. it is something that has moved so many— vote. it is something that has moved so many people and it is not surprising _ so many people and it is not surprising when you see some of the horrific— surprising when you see some of the horrific pictures on our screens. the liberal— horrific pictures on our screens. the liberal democrats early on were calling _ the liberal democrats early on were calling for— the liberal democrats early on were calling for an immediate, bilateral ceasefire. — calling for an immediate, bilateral ceasefire, we wanted to see a getting — ceasefire, we wanted to see a getting in— ceasefire, we wanted to see a getting in and hostages out. but critically— getting in and hostages out. but critically that being the first step on the _ critically that being the first step on the road to lasting peace. that has always— on the road to lasting peace. that has always been our position and it is something lots of people have welcomed, they have welcomed our leadership— welcomed, they have welcomed our leadership on this. our foreign affairs — leadership on this. our foreign affairs spokesperson, layla moran, has been _ affairs spokesperson, layla moran, has been very prominent on this

issue _ has been very prominent on this issue she — has been very prominent on this issue. she has palestinian heritage and family— issue. she has palestinian heritage and family in gaza. a lot of people have _ and family in gaza. a lot of people have welcomed the liberal democrat stance _ have welcomed the liberal democrat stance on _ have welcomed the liberal democrat stance on this. it is such a serious issue. _ stance on this. it is such a serious issue, everythingjonathan stance on this. it is such a serious issue, everything jonathan was saying. — issue, everything jonathan was saying. it — issue, everything jonathan was saying, it is a very complex conflict _ saying, it is a very complex conflict i_ saying, it is a very complex conflict. i don't want to start talking — conflict. i don't want to start talking about if you cancel see gains — talking about if you cancel see gains in — talking about if you cancel see gains in that context, although obviously— gains in that context, although obviously pleased to see them. it is very sensitive _ obviously pleased to see them. it 3 very sensitive and very complicated but also voters do want to hear what their politicians believe and what their politicians believe and what their politicians believe and what their politicians think the solutions are and sometimes they have very strong reactions to them. the liberal democrats around the country, aside from that issue, what has been coming up on the doorsteps? by has been coming up on the doorsteps? by and large it is more the bread—and—butter things. by and large it is more the bread—and—butterthings. not being bread—and—butter things. not being able to— bread—and—butterthings. not being able to get an appointment with your gp, able to get an appointment with your gp. not— able to get an appointment with your gp, not being able to see a dentist, a lot of— gp, not being able to see a dentist, a lot of people are concerned about the quality — a lot of people are concerned about the quality of the local environment, particularly sewage in rivers _ environment, particularly sewage in rivers is _ environment, particularly sewage in rivers is something that really upsets — rivers is something that really upsets a — rivers is something that really upsets a lot of people. those are the sorts —

upsets a lot of people. those are the sorts of things. it is about their— the sorts of things. it is about their local— the sorts of things. it is about their local environment and services _ their local environment and services. but time and time again i am hearing — services. but time and time again i am hearing from conservative voters in my— am hearing from conservative voters in my seat _ am hearing from conservative voters in my seat in — am hearing from conservative voters in my seat in particular, and elsewhere, that they are sick to death— elsewhere, that they are sick to death of— elsewhere, that they are sick to death of the conservatives. the conservatives are not listening to their— conservatives are not listening to their concerns. the conservatives are just _ their concerns. the conservatives are just taking them for. in many ways— are just taking them for. in many ways and — are just taking them for. in many ways and i— are just taking them for. in many ways and i think we will see significant fall in conservative vote — significant fall in conservative vote share. significant fall in conservative vote share-— significant fall in conservative vote share. �*, ., ,, ., , vote share. let's talk on exactly that and we _ vote share. let's talk on exactly that and we can _ vote share. let's talk on exactly that and we can show _ vote share. let's talk on exactly that and we can show you - vote share. let's talk on exactly that and we can show you from | vote share. let's talk on exactly i that and we can show you from our numbers so far what has been going on with the vote share we are able to calculate by collecting statistics in different pockets of the country. this is the change since 2021, the last time the seats were up. the tories down by 15%. labour up by four, which is distinct but not convincing. they had a bad yearin but not convincing. they had a bad year in 2021, the labour party, and the tories had a very good year. the lib dems up by one, the greens are

by far, the reform party, which was back then the brexit party, up by 8% and the independents, lots of hard—working individual standing in councils off their own back. let's look at the change since last year. now, this is really interesting. it has been a terrible year for the conservatives in all sorts of ways, theoretically a good year for the labour party with very significant national poll leads. but their vote share is down by 0.4% since last year. the conservatives down by 3% and the lib dems down by 2%. the greens are benefiting by two. the reform party and the turquoise gaining by 1r%. now, it is 1:26am, this is ourfirst gaining by 1r%. now, it is 1:26am, this is our first stab at what the change in the share of the vote will look like, so it is early days. these are calculations put together very carefully and as things stand

it looks like since last year, 2023, maybe there has not been very much change at all. that is what our early analysis is suggesting, that where there is no reform candidate standing there does not seem to have been that much movement between the conservatives and the labour party since last year. it may well be that the two main parties are kind of as you were by the end of this election weekend. let's see. one of the issues for voters, as we have been hearing from politicians, is what is going on in people's wallets. the economy, which has struggled so much, everybody has been feeling hard up because of inflation, we know inflation has been slowing down, which the government is very happy to remind us of as it was one of rishi sunak�*s key targets, but what is stacking up for the weeks and months ahead? faisal islam is

joining us from the newsroom. he couldn't help yourself to stay up with us during election night. great to have you with us. let's look at first about what might be coming down the tracks.— first about what might be coming down the tracks. good morning. i think it is morning. _ down the tracks. good morning. i think it is morning. 0r— down the tracks. good morning. i think it is morning. or very i down the tracks. good morning. i think it is morning. or very late i think it is morning. or very late evening. i think when whatever the numbers you guys are crunching in terms of the political impact, both for the public in terms of a general election, but also in terms of the argument downing street might have to make with their own mps if the results disappoint, obviously the context looms large, particularly in the next few days. you have heard a lot from the prime minister and the chancellor about an economic turnaround and some of those numbers have not quite been there yet. we get a crucial set of numbers in the next few days. we have next friday it is highly likely that the brief recession at the end of next year will be called is officially over,

the economy will be showing to have grown in the first quarter of this year and that is the official end to what was a mild, technical recession. on the thursday we will hear from the bank of england perhaps a pathway for interest rate cuts at some point over the course of the year. in a couple of weeks' time we see the inflation rate come down pretty close to the bank of england's target of 2%, a normal rate of inflation. some figures that might underline a story of a turnaround in the economy. i know in downing street they have been looking very carefully at the consumer confidence numbers. when i go out and speak to people about the economy, they reflect what you have just said, which is people don't notice the growth and the gdp numbers. they notice that the price level is much higher than it was two or three years ago and they feel that squeeze. but in downing street

they have been looking at the consumer confidence numbers and they in general look pretty bad. but one sub—measure of confidence, which is people was my idea of personal wealth over the next 12 months has just about gone positive to plus two. the dizzy heights of plus two. they feel that is a little bit of light in terms of what the public might feel about the public finances and what they might feel in a general election in autumn. git“? and what they might feel in a general election in autumn. give us a sense of the _ general election in autumn. give us a sense of the context. _ general election in autumn. give us a sense of the context. everybody l a sense of the context. everybody knows they have had a hard time and you go to the supermarket and things are so much more expensive and wages have been rising now but they have not for such a long time for many people. in terms of the big picture, what do we have to live through in the economic background to this? wage growth is just ahead the economic background to this? wage growth isjust ahead of inflation, so real wages are rising

again, but the real question about the election and economic backdrop to the election is how much do people feel this? it's notjust a problem here, i havejust been in america where there is the same problem and the economy is growing fast but people say they don't feel it. we will hear a lot about economic turnaround this month and a lot from downing street communicating to their mps. just hold on, we have some data around the corner that will make the argument to the public, three years of rolling crisis, much of which has come from around the world but most was domestically generated, we can draw a line under that. that will be disputed by some of the people next to, people have suffered and continue to suffer and theyjust don't feel it. the key testing ground in the election about whether people feel any sense of turnaround, you will be hearing that a lot from both the prime minister and the

chancellor in the coming 48 hours. let's get straight to that then. chris, is that the plan? it is part ofthe chris, is that the plan? it is part of the plan _ chris, is that the plan? it is part of the plan and _ chris, is that the plan? it is part of the plan and we _ chris, is that the plan? it is part of the plan and we are - chris, is that the plan? it is part| of the plan and we are definitely, as i mentioned, the prime minister has five key tests it must be tested against and so it is very important to deliver on that because you have to deliver on that because you have to demonstrate delivery to gain the trust and to gain votes. i want to pick up and something you said earlier laura about local elections rarely being about foreign affairs. because that is not the case. in local elections in the last decade it has been a reflection of how ukip were doing up and down the country and in newcastle, sunderland and in my seat, could ukip do really well in those things? each of those results we have had so far

demonstrate something slightly different. just getting messages in from conservative activists in newcastle, who were not having the best of nights, but neither is labour. one of the lessons we will learn from tonight, you should never write off the green party in these situations. i think they will have a very strong showing. there is a lot of things for major parties to learn from these elections and if we don't learn we will be punished by the electorate. learn we will be punished by the electorate-— learn we will be punished by the electorate. ~ ., ., , ., ., _ electorate. what do you mean by that? we have _ electorate. what do you mean by that? we have to _ electorate. what do you mean by that? we have to continue i electorate. what do you mean by that? we have to continue on i electorate. what do you mean byj that? we have to continue on the tra'ecto that? we have to continue on the trajectory of _ that? we have to continue on the trajectory of the _ that? we have to continue on the trajectory of the livings _ that? we have to continue on the trajectory of the livings of - that? we have to continue on the trajectory of the livings of people | trajectory of the livings of people believe we will do what we say and they will be better off in the long run. but we have to make sure we have delivered on the five pledges the prime minister set out. as we talked about earlier, stopping the boats and getting those numbers down is important. immigration policy will be a key factor in that. trying to have a grown—up debate about

immigration without going into extremes is very important to make sure we can have that debate, represent people's views appropriately. but not allow the extremes to take over. [30 appropriately. but not allow the extremes to take over.- appropriately. but not allow the extremes to take over. do you think that has been _ extremes to take over. do you think that has been happening? _ extremes to take over. do you think that has been happening? no, i extremes to take over. do you think that has been happening? no, not. that has been happening? no, not et. butl that has been happening? no, not yet. but | think _ that has been happening? no, not yet. but | think it— that has been happening? no, not yet. but i think it is _ that has been happening? no, not yet. but i think it is very _ yet. but i think it is very important the major political parties reflect on language in this space. parties reflect on language in this sace. . ., parties reflect on language in this sace. ~ ., . parties reflect on language in this sace. . ., ., i. parties reflect on language in this sace. ~ ., . ,, ~ parties reflect on language in this seace, . ., ., 4' ., parties reflect on language in this sace. . ., ., ~ ., | parties reflect on language in this sace. . ., . ,. ., iam space. who are you thinking of? i am thinkina space. who are you thinking of? i am thinkin: of space. who are you thinking of? i am thinking of was _ space. who are you thinking of? i am thinking of was treating. _ space. who are you thinking of? i am thinking of was treating. it _ space. who are you thinking of? i am thinking of was treating. it is - space. who are you thinking of? i am thinking of was treating. it is a i thinking of was treating. it is a disgrace a couple of years ago he called a conservative candidate a white supremacist. you have to be careful with that language in the mainstream.— careful with that language in the mainstream. . ., ., ., ., ., careful with that language in the mainstream. . ., ., ., ., mainstream. jonathan, do you want to resond to mainstream. jonathan, do you want to respond to that? _ mainstream. jonathan, do you want to respond to that? it _ mainstream. jonathan, do you want to respond to that? it is _ mainstream. jonathan, do you want to respond to that? it is remarkable i mainstream. jonathan, do you want to respond to that? it is remarkable to i respond to that? it is remarkable to have a major _ respond to that? it is remarkable to have a major party _ respond to that? it is remarkable to have a major party candidate - respond to that? it is remarkable to have a major party candidate for i have a major party candidate for position— have a major party candidate for position for— have a major party candidate for position for the _ have a major party candidate for position for the mayor— have a major party candidate for position for the mayor of - have a major party candidate for| position for the mayor of london have a major party candidate for i position for the mayor of london who has praised _ position for the mayor of london who has praised enoch— position for the mayor of london who has praised enoch powell. _ position for the mayor of london who has praised enoch powell. i- position for the mayor of london who has praised enoch powell. i cannot i has praised enoch powell. i cannot fathom _ has praised enoch powell. i cannot fathom the — has praised enoch powell. i cannot

fathom the decision _ has praised enoch powell. i cannot fathom the decision made - has praised enoch powell. i cannot fathom the decision made by- has praised enoch powell. i cannot fathom the decision made by the l fathom the decision made by the conservative _ fathom the decision made by the conservative party— fathom the decision made by the conservative party around - fathom the decision made by the conservative party around that i conservative party around that candidate _ conservative party around that candidate. on _ conservative party around that candidate. on the _ conservative party around that candidate. on the point - conservative party around that candidate. on the point and i conservative party around that i candidate. on the point and the economym _ candidate. on the point and the economy... the _ candidate. on the point and the economy... the points- candidate. on the point and the economy... the points that i candidate. on the point and the economy... the points that was candidate. on the point and the - economy... the points that was make, in the _ economy... the points that was make, in the next _ economy... the points that was make, in the next election, _ economy... the points that was make, in the next election, british _ economy... the points that was make, in the next election, british people i in the next election, british people will be _ in the next election, british people will be worse — in the next election, british people will be worse off— in the next election, british people will be worse off than _ in the next election, british people will be worse off than they - in the next election, british people will be worse off than they were i in the next election, british people will be worse off than they were at| will be worse off than they were at the last _ will be worse off than they were at the last the — will be worse off than they were at the last. the nhs _ will be worse off than they were at the last. the nhs has _ will be worse off than they were at the last. the nhs has waiting i will be worse off than they were at| the last. the nhs has waiting this, the last. the nhs has waiting this, the train _ the last. the nhs has waiting this, the train for — the last. the nhs has waiting this, the train for work _ the last. the nhs has waiting this, the train for work doesn't - the last. the nhs has waiting this, the train for work doesn't arrive i the last. the nhs has waiting this, the train for work doesn't arrive at| the train for work doesn't arrive at the train for work doesn't arrive at the school— the train for work doesn't arrive at the school might _ the train for work doesn't arrive at the school might be _ the train for work doesn't arrive at the school might be closed - the train for work doesn't arrive at the school might be closed at i the train for work doesn't arrive at the school might be closed at the| the school might be closed at the start of— the school might be closed at the start of the — the school might be closed at the start of the time _ the school might be closed at the start of the time for— the school might be closed at the start of the time for the - the school might be closed at the start of the time for the concrete| start of the time for the concrete issue _ start of the time for the concrete issue the — start of the time for the concrete issue. the sense _ start of the time for the concrete issue. the sense nothing - start of the time for the concrete issue. the sense nothing is- start of the time for the concrete i issue. the sense nothing is working in conservative _ issue. the sense nothing is working in conservative britain. _ issue. the sense nothing is working in conservative britain. and - issue. the sense nothing is working in conservative britain. and it- issue. the sense nothing is working in conservative britain. and it is- in conservative britain. and it is not two — in conservative britain. and it is not two or— in conservative britain. and it is not two or three _ in conservative britain. and it is not two or three years, - in conservative britain. and it is not two or three years, it - in conservative britain. and it is not two or three years, it is i in conservative britain. and it is not two or three years, it is 14. not two or three years, it is 14 years — not two or three years, it is 14 years that— not two or three years, it is 14 years that is— not two or three years, it is 14 years. that is the _ not two or three years, it is 14 years. that is the record i not two or three years, it is 14 years. that is the record you i not two or three years, it is 14. years. that is the record you will be judged — years. that is the record you will be judged upon~ _ years. that is the record you will be judged upon~ i_ years. that is the record you will be judged upon. i think- years. that is the record you will be judged upon. i think in - years. that is the record you will be judged upon. i think in all. years. that is the record you willj be judged upon. i think in all the places— be judged upon. i think in all the places i— be judged upon. i think in all the places i have _ be judged upon. i think in all the places i have been _ be judged upon. i think in all the places i have been to— be judged upon. i think in all the places i have been to on- be judged upon. i think in all the places i have been to on the i places i have been to on the campaign _ places i have been to on the campaign trail, _ places i have been to on the campaign trail, i— places i have been to on the campaign trail, i am - places i have been to on the i campaign trail, i am heartened to see conservative _ campaign trail, i am heartened to see conservative supporters i campaign trail, i am heartened to see conservative supporters and i see conservative supporters and former— see conservative supporters and former conservative _ see conservative supporters and former conservative supporters i see conservative supporters and i former conservative supporters are coming — former conservative supporters are coming to— former conservative supporters are coming to labour. _ former conservative supporters are coming to labour. the _

former conservative supporters are coming to labour. the scale - former conservative supporters are coming to labour. the scale of- former conservative supporters are coming to labour. the scale of it, i coming to labour. the scale of it, some _ coming to labour. the scale of it, some will— coming to labour. the scale of it, some will go— coming to labour. the scale of it, some will go to _ coming to labour. the scale of it, some will go to reform _ coming to labour. the scale of it, some will go to reform uk - coming to labour. the scale of it, some will go to reform uk and i coming to labour. the scale of it, . some will go to reform uk and some will go _ some will go to reform uk and some will go to— some will go to reform uk and some will go to the — some will go to reform uk and some will go to the greens, _ some will go to reform uk and some will go to the greens, as _ some will go to reform uk and some will go to the greens, as you - some will go to reform uk and some will go to the greens, as you have i will go to the greens, as you have said it _ will go to the greens, as you have said it but — will go to the greens, as you have said it but it— will go to the greens, as you have said it but it is— will go to the greens, as you have said it but it is a _ will go to the greens, as you have said it but it is a driver— will go to the greens, as you have said it but it is a driver how- will go to the greens, as you have said it but it is a driver how these| said it but it is a driver how these contests— said it but it is a driver how these contests will _ said it but it is a driver how these contests will go. _ said it but it is a driver how these contests will go. you _ said it but it is a driver how these contests will go. you are - said it but it is a driver how these contests will go. you are right. said it but it is a driver how these contests will go. you are right to| contests will go. you are right to say that— contests will go. you are right to say that smaller— contests will go. you are right to say that smaller parties - contests will go. you are right to say that smaller parties tend - contests will go. you are right to say that smaller parties tend to. contests will go. you are right to i say that smaller parties tend to do better_ say that smaller parties tend to do better in— say that smaller parties tend to do better in local— say that smaller parties tend to do better in local elections, _ say that smaller parties tend to do better in local elections, that - say that smaller parties tend to do better in local elections, that is. say that smaller parties tend to do better in local elections, that is a. better in local elections, that is a feature — better in local elections, that is a feature that _ better in local elections, that is a feature. that is _ better in local elections, that is a feature. that is why— better in local elections, that is a feature. that is why you - better in local elections, that is a feature. that is why you cannot l feature. that is why you cannot compare — feature. that is why you cannot compare the _ feature. that is why you cannot compare the vote _ feature. that is why you cannot compare the vote share - feature. that is why you cannot compare the vote share to - feature. that is why you cannoti compare the vote share to david feature. that is why you cannot - compare the vote share to david what you would _ compare the vote share to david what you would have — compare the vote share to david what you would have seen _ compare the vote share to david what you would have seen before _ compare the vote share to david what you would have seen before 1997. - compare the vote share to david what you would have seen before 1997. wei you would have seen before 1997. we can you would have seen before 1997. can compare it to last year and 22021 and so far the scale of dissatisfaction with the conservatives, you can feel it everywhere you go. the scale of the change in share since last year, so far is tiny. not a great endorsement for you? far is tiny. not a great endorsement for ou? ., , far is tiny. not a great endorsement for ou? , ., far is tiny. not a great endorsement for ou? , . ., for you? last year their own expectation _ for you? last year their own expectation management i for you? last year their own i expectation management was for you? last year their own - expectation management was to pretend _ expectation management was to pretend they — expectation management was to pretend they thought _ expectation management was to pretend they thought they - expectation management was to pretend they thought they could | expectation management was to - pretend they thought they could lose as many— pretend they thought they could lose as many as _ pretend they thought they could lose as many as 1000 _ pretend they thought they could lose as many as 1000 seats. _ pretend they thought they could lose as many as 1000 seats. talking - pretend they thought they could lose i as many as 1000 seats. talking about your share _ as many as 1000 seats. talking about your share this — as many as 1000 seats. talking about your share. this is _ as many as 1000 seats. talking about your share. this is election— as many as 1000 seats. talking about your share. this is election year, - your share. this is election year, surely— your share. this is election year, surely we — your share. this is election year, surely we eutect— your share. this is election year, surely we expect the _ your share. this is election year, i surely we expect the conservative party— surely we expect the conservative party to _ surely we expect the conservative party to do — surely we expect the conservative party to do better— surely we expect the conservative party to do better than _ surely we expect the conservative party to do better than last - surely we expect the conservative party to do better than last year. i party to do better than last year. they— party to do better than last year. they cannot _ party to do better than last year. they cannot do _ party to do better than last year. they cannot do worse? - party to do better than last year. they cannot do worse? what - party to do better than last year. they cannot do worse? what we | party to do better than last year. - they cannot do worse? what we have seen on _ they cannot do worse? what we have seen on the _ they cannot do worse? what we have seen on the vote _ they cannot do worse? what we have seen on the vote shares, _ they cannot do worse? what we have seen on the vote shares, if— they cannot do worse? what we have seen on the vote shares, if they - they cannot do worse? what we have seen on the vote shares, if they are l seen on the vote shares, if they are

the same _ seen on the vote shares, if they are the same is — seen on the vote shares, if they are the same is labour— seen on the vote shares, if they are the same is labour winning - seen on the vote shares, if they are the same is labour winning seats i the same is labour winning seats from _ the same is labour winning seats from the — the same is labour winning seats from the conservative _ the same is labour winning seats from the conservative party- the same is labour winning seats from the conservative party we . the same is labour winning seats i from the conservative party we have never _ from the conservative party we have never held _ from the conservative party we have never held before. _ from the conservative party we have never held before.— from the conservative party we have never held before. massive pedalling back of expectation _ never held before. massive pedalling back of expectation from _ never held before. massive pedalling back of expectation from labour - never held before. massive pedalling| back of expectation from labour from where _ back of expectation from labour from where we _ back of expectation from labour from where we were three weeks ago. it demonstrates how much things can change _ demonstrates how much things can change in _ demonstrates how much things can change in the course of an election. he went _ change in the course of an election. he went to— change in the course of an election. he went to rushmore and there has never— he went to rushmore and there has never been — he went to rushmore and there has never been a — he went to rushmore and there has never been a majority _ he went to rushmore and there has never been a majority labour - never been a majority labour administration. _ never been a majority labour administration. let's- never been a majority labour administration. let's be - never been a majority labourj administration. let's be clear never been a majority labour - administration. let's be clear the scale _ administration. let's be clear the scale of— administration. let's be clear the scale of what _ administration. let's be clear the scale of what we _ administration. let's be clear the scale of what we are _ administration. let's be clear the scale of what we are seeing, - scale of what we are seeing, wellingborough_ scale of what we are seeing, wellingborough and - scale of what we are seeing, wellingborough and places i scale of what we are seeing, . wellingborough and places like scale of what we are seeing, - wellingborough and places like that that labour— wellingborough and places like that that labour is— wellingborough and places like that that labour is winning _ wellingborough and places like that| that labour is winning by—elections. labour— that labour is winning by—elections. labour also — that labour is winning by—elections. labour also losing _ that labour is winning by—elections. labour also losing seats _ that labour is winning by—elections. labour also losing seats to - that labour is winning by—elections. labour also losing seats to greens i labour also losing seats to greens and independents in south tyneside. wonderful part of the world, just near newcastle. no danger they will lose the council, but we are seeing labour not gaining in places where, if you are on course for a massive majority, you should be taking. where labour has to come from just to be _ where labour has to come from just to be competitive _ where labour has to come from just to be competitive in _ where labour has to come from just to be competitive in the _ where labour has to come from just

to be competitive in the next - to be competitive in the next election— to be competitive in the next election is— to be competitive in the next election is extraordinary. - to be competitive in the next election is extraordinary. it i to be competitive in the next| election is extraordinary. it is testament _ election is extraordinary. it is testament to— election is extraordinary. it is testament to what _ election is extraordinary. it is testament to what labour- election is extraordinary. it is i testament to what labour have election is extraordinary. it is - testament to what labour have done in the _ testament to what labour have done in the last— testament to what labour have done in the last few— testament to what labour have done in the last few years _ testament to what labour have done in the last few years and _ testament to what labour have done in the last few years and we're - testament to what labour have done in the last few years and we're very. in the last few years and we're very proud _ in the last few years and we're very proud of— in the last few years and we're very proud of that — in the last few years and we're very proud of that. we _ in the last few years and we're very proud of that. we have _ in the last few years and we're very proud of that. we have seen- in the last few years and we're very proud of that. we have seen a - proud of that. we have seen a conservative _ proud of that. we have seen a conservative labour— proud of that. we have seen a conservative labour head - proud of that. we have seen ai conservative labour head there proud of that. we have seen a - conservative labour head there will be some _ conservative labour head there will be some contest— conservative labour head there will be some contest tonight. _ conservative labour head there will be some contest tonight. he - conservative labour head there willj be some contest tonight. he talked about— be some contest tonight. he talked about the _ be some contest tonight. he talked about the tees _ be some contest tonight. he talked about the tees valley, _ be some contest tonight. he talked about the tees valley, that - be some contest tonight. he talked about the tees valley, that is - be some contest tonight. he talked about the tees valley, that is veryi about the tees valley, that is very hard _ about the tees valley, that is very hard. ., about the tees valley, that is very hard. . , . . ., about the tees valley, that is very hard. . , ., , hard. that expectation has been manared hard. that expectation has been managed for _ hard. that expectation has been managed for our _ hard. that expectation has been managed for our viewers - hard. that expectation has been l managed for our viewers already. let's go to one of those places. you have conveniently set that up, let's go to bolton which has been run as a minority council. the boundary changes this year in terms of the council, but bolton north east and bolton west are conservative held at the moment in terms of the westminster constituency and they should be labour targets at the general election. kevin fitzpatrick has been looking closely at what has been going on. what can you tell us,

kevin? . ,., ., . kevin? labour need to gain three councillors _ kevin? labour need to gain three councillors to _ kevin? labour need to gain three councillors to take _ kevin? labour need to gain three councillors to take full _ kevin? labour need to gain three councillors to take full control- kevin? labour need to gain three councillors to take full control of| councillors to take full control of this authority. they have been running it as a minority administration in the past year. in the years before that it was a minority run by the conservatives. labour had a good year last year, they are defending ii labour had a good year last year, they are defending 11 seats out of 20. they say that has been the focus to defend and retain doses. they are potentially hoping to make some gains and if they do they would most likely come from the conservatives. if they do pick up those seats from the conservatives, the tories are saying it would be a severe blow and a real indication of our poor night in terms of prospects wider. they are conservative strongholds because it has been talked about tonight that two of the council seat where labour have never held them, they could potentially take them. the workers party britain have a couple

of candidates, george galloway talking the talk in rochdale and the boroughs around here. no real expectation they will have a big impact. in the last decade, local parties, mainly on the edge of this borough have had an increasing impact. they have been the kingmakers in the last few years with the conservatives and they will certainly play their part as well, tapping into that sense of frustration we have found in this area that there is a feeling the people on the outside, the focus and the money tends to be on the town centre. no dramatic changes expected, labour could take full control and if they do it would be considered a successful night for them. , , ., considered a successful night for them. , ., ., ., . them. just to go back to the threat from the workers _ them. just to go back to the threat from the workers party _ them. just to go back to the threat from the workers party of - them. just to go back to the threat from the workers party of great . from the workers party of great britain and george galloway�*s supporters, how much do you feel, kevin, observing these things, how much change do you think it is made to the overall picture where you

are? if to the overall picture where you are? , ., to the overall picture where you are? i. . a, ., , , are? if you look at bolton, it seems to have had — are? if you look at bolton, it seems to have had little _ are? if you look at bolton, it seems to have had little impact _ are? if you look at bolton, it seems to have had little impact at - are? if you look at bolton, it seems to have had little impact at all. - to have had little impact at all. just down the road in rochdale, clearly that is where george galloway won the eventful by—election in january. galloway won the eventful by—election injanuary. he is fielding 13 candidates in the local election and talking up his chances of sweeping change through the town hall, as he kept saying. the reality is, that the expectation on the ground, pick up between two and six seats in the areas around the town centre with a large proportion of muslim voters in those wards. next door in 0ldham, the issue of gaza, not necessarily of george galloway, but the issue of gaza could see labour lose control of the council. it is on a knife edge. we had half an hour before nominations came in at two labour councillors defected to an independent group where gaza is the focus. labour needs to lose

one seat tonight and they would lose control of the council. this is an issue playing its part in greater manchester. in east lancashire, pendle and burnley, in the last few months, labour lost control of those councils when a whole swathe of labour councillors became independence over the issue of gaza. it will play its part, but where we see the results and that will be in the counts later on today.- see the results and that will be in the counts later on today. kevin, we will be back — the counts later on today. kevin, we will be back with _ the counts later on today. kevin, we will be back with you _ the counts later on today. kevin, we will be back with you later _ the counts later on today. kevin, we will be back with you later in - the counts later on today. kevin, we will be back with you later in the - will be back with you later in the night. fascinating to see how there is an enormous international issues have been playing into local political contests already. let's go to grimsby where the council of north east lincolnshire is being hard—fought. labour hope to make progress there but the area is currently split between two conservative mps. great grimsby and cleethorpes will be a labour target at the general election. 0ur

political editor is in that part of the world. great to talk to you and what is going on there tonight? laura, i can tell you there are some furrowed conservative browser in grimsby. it is fair to say that. in the past few minutes, the tories have suffered two losses to labour. going into these elections, the conservatives had a sizeable majority in control of north east lincolnshire council. the tories are defending ii lincolnshire council. the tories are defending 11 out of the 12 seats up for grabs tonight. they are not looking confident at retaining many of those seats. we fully expect that more seats will go from the tories to labour and the conservatives could lose control of the council. it is still likely they will still be the largest party here but north east lincolnshire could be hung. the context of this, grimsby is the

classic red wool constituency. it was won by the tories in 2019 and after decades of labour control, 1945. . ., ., , , , after decades of labour control, 1945.~ ., ., ,, , , 1945. what have the issues been when ou have 1945. what have the issues been when you have been — 1945. what have the issues been when you have been out _ 1945. what have the issues been when you have been out and _ 1945. what have the issues been when you have been out and about - 1945. what have the issues been when you have been out and about chattingl you have been out and about chatting to people? what has been shifting the votes? ., , ., ,, , , the votes? lots of issues, but i have just _ the votes? lots of issues, but i have just spoken _ the votes? lots of issues, but i have just spoken to _ the votes? lots of issues, but i have just spoken to the - the votes? lots of issues, but i have just spoken to the sitting | have just spoken to the sitting conservative mp for great grimsby. she says it is all about levelling up, voters are frustrated they are not seeing the economic changes they voted for back in 2019. she argues that has been some investment in grimsby and neighbouring cleethorpes, but nowhere near enough perhaps to persuade people to stay loyal to the conservatives in these local elections. so levelling up has played out big here, lots of empty shops in grimsby and the local mp, local tory mp admits the pace of those changes just haven't happened

clicking. those changes 'ust haven't happened clickinr. ., ~ those changes 'ust haven't happened clickinr. . ,, , ., , those changes 'ust haven't happened clickinr. . ~' , ., , . clicking. tim, thank you very much. interesting — clicking. tim, thank you very much. interesting to _ clicking. tim, thank you very much. interesting to hear _ clicking. tim, thank you very much. interesting to hear that. _ clicking. tim, thank you very much. interesting to hear that. back- clicking. tim, thank you very much. interesting to hear that. back with l interesting to hear that. back with you later in the night. it is 1.44 and we can give you some more results of the council flat have been coming through so far. south tyneside have been held by the labour party. not a surprise but the greens were taking some seats off them and we will be speaking to the greens later on. other morning, i should say. newcastle has been held by the labour party and we will hear more on that in a second. charlie is a labour hold, speaker hoyle part of the world. rochford in essex has stayed in no overall control. and sunderland held by labour, again, not a surprise but interesting to look underneath the results and broxbourne is true blue, a

conservative hold but with the falling away in terms of the tory share. reeta, what has been happening in newcastle because labour has held it but not looking that pretty?— that pretty? absolutely, we have been taking _ that pretty? absolutely, we have been taking a _ that pretty? absolutely, we have been taking a forensic— that pretty? absolutely, we have been taking a forensic look- that pretty? absolutely, we have been taking a forensic look at - been taking a forensic look at newcastle. it is a labour hold, although they are still counting. interesting the figures behind the overall result. labour has lost two seats and the greens have picked up two seats. lib dems have picked up one and the independents have lost one. let's look at one has happened to the vote share. this is the change since the seats were for three years ago. labour's vote up a little bit but it is the greens who are the main beneficiaries. the conservative down by eight percentage point. the greens have had a good night in newcastle. although the night is young, or it is early in the morning, we have a

lot of results to go. the greens at the moment, based on results here and elsewhere are on course for having their best local election night so far. their previous record was in 2019 and at the moment, based on the results it looks as though they could be going better than that. that'll be good news for them and i know he will be talking to them fairly soon.— and i know he will be talking to them fairly soon. they had a good deal last year. _ them fairly soon. they had a good deal last year, so _ them fairly soon. they had a good deal last year, so they _ them fairly soon. they had a good deal last year, so they be - them fairly soon. they had a good. deal last year, so they be delighted with that if they can consolidate it and make further gains. chris, in terms of what is happening in the undergrowth with the smaller parties taking ground at the expense of labour in some places, does it surprise you?— labour in some places, does it surrise ou? w , . surprise you? taking up about the greens, surprise you? taking up about the greens. they _ surprise you? taking up about the greens, they have _ surprise you? taking up about the greens, they have been _ surprise you? taking up about the greens, they have been doing - surprise you? taking up about the| greens, they have been doing well surprise you? taking up about the i greens, they have been doing well in local elections for the last four or five years. it looks like, the slimmest of ten takings in terms of overall results.— overall results. don't do is down! they seem _ overall results. don't do is down! they seem to _ overall results. don't do is down! they seem to be _

overall results. don't do is down! they seem to be doing _ overall results. don't do is down! they seem to be doing well - overall results. don't do is down! | they seem to be doing well again. overall results. don't do is down! - they seem to be doing well again. we have seen as well in these early indications how well it would appear reform are doing as well. that is not typical in local elections that smaller parties might do relatively well but what is intriguing is how well but what is intriguing is how well they do, given they don't get as much publicity as conservatives and labourand as much publicity as conservatives and labour and they are not voting for who should be national government, but selecting a local representative. so far, as a summary thought, yes, there is early evidence that conservative might be struggling in places and labour are doing relatively well. but, not necessarily making it hugely forward labour from where they were last year. given the opinion polls, he would have expected that to be the case. it is remarkably early, though. it case. it is remarkably early, thou~h. . ., , case. it is remarkably early, thou~h. , . , ., case. it is remarkably early, thou~h. , . , . .,

case. it is remarkably early, thou~h. , . . ., though. it is early and i want to remind you _ though. it is early and i want to remind you of— though. it is early and i want to remind you of the _ though. it is early and i want to remind you of the chronology, l though. it is early and i want to i remind you of the chronology, we will be getting more council results as we spend time together toward six o'clock but the lion's share will be tomorrow and the mayoral contest will be friday and saturday all the way through until saturday night. but we are, before too long, we hope to bring you the results of the blackpool south by—election which is very important. that will give us lots of information that will help create the overall picture of this. but the chronology of these elections for councils, for police and crime commissioner is for the mayors, is notjust quite lengthy, but also quite complicated. in terms of brand conclusions, we should be holding our horses. but there is, under these results we have interesting trends and are you disappointed to see some of what you have seen, whether it is in south tyneside seats go to the greens and the greens are lib dems benefiting from labour newcastle? ihla.

the greens are lib dems benefiting from labour newcastle?— from labour newcastle? no, partly because of the _ from labour newcastle? no, partly because of the side _ from labour newcastle? no, partly because of the side of— from labour newcastle? no, partly because of the side of the - from labour newcastle? no, partly because of the side of the sample, | because of the side of the sample, but if you have a situation where your vote share has gone up when you have lost seats it is about the votes moving around the other parties. we don't know very much. first of all, if we had a repeat of what we saw last year, no rallying in the conservative vote as we get closer to a general election, that would be very promising for labour. and when we get the kind of data that will tell us in those key parliamentary seats, which are conservative are present and we want them to be labour, i'll be making them to be labour, i'll be making the inroads to return labour mps and that... taste the inroads to return labour mps and that... ~ . ., the inroads to return labour mps and that... ~ , . , ., ., that... we can see what is going on in hartlepool- _ that... we can see what is going on in hartlepool. hartlepool, - that... we can see what is going on in hartlepool. hartlepool, proud . in hartlepool. hartlepool, proud maritime history and it does appear that labour have told us they will take that counsel. it is a no—brainer for you to be taking hartlepool at this stage. no-brainer for you to be taking hartlepool at this stage. people talk about quite _ hartlepool at this stage. people talk about quite rightly - hartlepool at this stage. people talk about quite rightly labour'sj talk about quite rightly labour's turnaround since 2019. go back to

the hartlepool by—election, i grew up the hartlepool by—election, i grew up in sunderland and walking round hartlepool, it was tough, that contest. we had very few councillors on the ground. i was shocked by how that labour base had been eroded over time. to be sitting here on the kind of results we have seen, to see hartlepool being a labour council again, it is a significant turnaround. you don't get itjust because they are unhappy with the conservative party, it stands as a testament how labour have turned ourselves around over the last few years. ourselves around over the last few ears. , ourselves around over the last few ears, , ., . , ourselves around over the last few ears. , .,. , , �* years. sorry to chip in, isn't it roof years. sorry to chip in, isn't it proof of— years. sorry to chip in, isn't it proof of how— years. sorry to chip in, isn't it proof of how far _ years. sorry to chip in, isn't it proof of how far you - years. sorry to chip in, isn't it proof of how far you felt - years. sorry to chip in, isn't it proof of how far you felt in . years. sorry to chip in, isn't it| proof of how far you felt in the past, — proof of how far you felt in the past, not _ proof of how far you felt in the past, not necessarily how much progress — past, not necessarily how much progress you have made relative to where _ progress you have made relative to where you — progress you have made relative to where you need to get to? it is both. where you need to get to? it is both- the _ where you need to get to? it is both. the base _ where you need to get to? it is both. the base we _ where you need to get to? it 3 both. the base we have started from, not an easy one. people in my constituency reminded me of 2019 when the exit poll hits on my own constituency was on the list of

northern seats that might go conservative for the first time. the seats we have one, particularly in the by—elections, beyond our wildest dreams. seats are not even ones that labour would need to hold to form a majority government in the house of commons. then we factor in things like scotland, a significant turnaround in labour�*s fortunes. the job we have been able to do is very significant in three years. ichris significant in three years. chris heaton harris, _ significant in three years. chris heaton harris, had _ significant in three years. chris heaton harris, had been - significant in three years. chris heaton harris, had been chatting to lee amici, a conservative mp for part of grimsby and she was acknowledging to people there tonight that levelling up has not been what it promised and hasn't gone fast enough, the things that were have our two people have not all materialise.— all materialise. what do you say to that? you cannot _ all materialise. what do you say to that? you cannot turn _ all materialise. what do you say to that? you cannot turn around - all materialise. what do you say to that? you cannot turn around 30 i all materialise. what do you say to | that? you cannot turn around 30 to 40 years _ that? you cannot turn around 30 to 40 years of— that? you cannot turn around 30 to 40 years of labour— that? you cannot turn around 30 to 40 years of labour underfunding i that? you cannot turn around 30 to 40 years of labour underfunding ofj 40 years of labour underfunding of these _ 40 years of labour underfunding of these areas — 40 years of labour underfunding of these areas in _ 40 years of labour underfunding of these areas in four— 40 years of labour underfunding of these areas in four or— 40 years of labour underfunding of these areas in four or five - 40 years of labour underfunding of these areas in four or five years. i these areas in four or five years. there _ these areas in four or five years. there has— these areas in four or five years. there has been— these areas in four or five years. there has been significant- these areas in four or five years. i there has been significant progress, but people _ there has been significant progress, but people are — there has been significant progress, but people are right, _

there has been significant progress, but people are right, demanding i there has been significant progress, but people are right, demanding toi but people are right, demanding to see more — but people are right, demanding to see more and _ but people are right, demanding to see more and i_ but people are right, demanding to see more. and i believe _ but people are right, demanding to see more. and i believe they- but people are right, demanding to see more. and i believe they will. see more. and i believe they will see more. and i believe they will see it _ see more. and i believe they will see it being — see more. and i believe they will see it being delivered. _ see more. and i believe they will see it being delivered. just- see more. and i believe they will see it being delivered. just going jonathan's — see it being delivered. just going jonathan's point, _ see it being delivered. just going jonathan's point, the _ see it being delivered. just going jonathan's point, the set - see it being delivered. just going jonathan's point, the set of- jonathan's point, the set of elections _ jonathan's point, the set of elections in _ jonathan's point, the set of elections in 2021, - jonathan's point, the set of elections in 2021, my i jonathan's point, the set of elections in 2021, my party| jonathan's point, the set of- elections in 2021, my party was in the 40%_ elections in 2021, my party was in the 40% mark— elections in 2021, my party was in the 40% mark of— elections in 2021, my party was in the 40% mark of national- elections in 2021, my party was in the 40% mark of national polling. j elections in 2021, my party was in| the 40% mark of national polling. i think— the 40% mark of national polling. i think it _ the 40% mark of national polling. i think it was — the 40% mark of national polling. i think it was one _ the 40% mark of national polling. i think it was one of— the 40% mark of national polling. i think it was one of your _ the 40% mark of national polling. i think it was one of your colleagues| think it was one of your colleagues called _ think it was one of your colleagues called it— think it was one of your colleagues called it the — think it was one of your colleagues called it the vaccine _ think it was one of your colleagues called it the vaccine bounce - called it the vaccine bounce election— called it the vaccine bounce election for— called it the vaccine bounce election for the _ called it the vaccine bounce i election for the conservatives. we were _ election for the conservatives. we were riding — election for the conservatives. we were riding high— election for the conservatives. we were riding high and _ election for the conservatives. we were riding high and we _ election for the conservatives. we were riding high and we took- were riding high and we took hartlepool _ were riding high and we took hartlepool. we _ were riding high and we took hartlepool. we are - were riding high and we tookj hartlepool. we are definitely were riding high and we took- hartlepool. we are definitely not in the same _ hartlepool. we are definitely not in the same position— hartlepool. we are definitely not in the same position at _ hartlepool. we are definitely not in the same position at this _ hartlepool. we are definitely not in the same position at this point. i the same position at this point. whilst — the same position at this point. whilst i — the same position at this point. whilst i am _ the same position at this point. whilst i am disappointed i the same position at this point. whilst i am disappointed we i the same position at this point. | whilst i am disappointed we are losing _ whilst i am disappointed we are losing counts, _ whilst i am disappointed we are losing counts, we _ whilst i am disappointed we are losing counts, we have - whilst i am disappointed we are losing counts, we have lost i whilst i am disappointed we are losing counts, we have lost 12. whilst i am disappointed we are i losing counts, we have lost 12 good councillors — losing counts, we have lost 12 good councillors so — losing counts, we have lost 12 good councillors so far, _ losing counts, we have lost 12 good councillors so far, but _ losing counts, we have lost 12 good councillors so far, but it _ losing counts, we have lost 12 good councillors so far, but it doesn't i councillors so far, but it doesn't strike _ councillors so far, but it doesn't strike me — councillors so far, but it doesn't strike me this— councillors so far, but it doesn't strike me this is— councillors so far, but it doesn't strike me this is a _ councillors so far, but it doesn't strike me this is a massive i councillors so far, but it doesn'tl strike me this is a massive great day for— strike me this is a massive great day for labour _ strike me this is a massive great day for labour so _ strike me this is a massive great day for labour so far. _ strike me this is a massive great day for labour so far. isn’t- strike me this is a massive great day for labour so far.— day for labour so far. isn't the truth though, _ day for labour so far. isn't the truth though, you _ day for labour so far. isn't the truth though, you have - day for labour so far. isn't the truth though, you have just i day for labour so far. isn't the i truth though, you have just said yourself, you admitted you were more popular under borisjohnson. but a popular under boris johnson. but a whole host — popular under boris johnson. but a whole host of— popular under boris johnson. but a whole host of factors, _ popular under boris johnson. but a whole host of factors, coming out of covid _ whole host of factors, coming out of covid been _ whole host of factors, coming out of covid been one _ whole host of factors, coming out of covid been one. i— whole host of factors, coming out of covid been one. i was _ whole host of factors, coming out of covid been one. i was at _ whole host of factors, coming out of covid been one. i was at a _ whole host of factors, coming out of covid been one. i was at a businessi covid been one. i was at a business in northern— covid been one. i was at a business in northern ireland _ covid been one. i was at a business in northern ireland earlier- covid been one. i was at a business in northern ireland earlier today. in northern ireland earlier today who wanted _ in northern ireland earlier today

who wanted to _ in northern ireland earlier today who wanted to thank _ in northern ireland earlier today who wanted to thank rishi i in northern ireland earlier todayl who wanted to thank rishi sunak in northern ireland earlier today- who wanted to thank rishi sunak for the furlough — who wanted to thank rishi sunak for the furlough scheme, _ who wanted to thank rishi sunak for the furlough scheme, because i who wanted to thank rishi sunak for l the furlough scheme, because without that they _ the furlough scheme, because without that they said — the furlough scheme, because without that they said they _ the furlough scheme, because without that they said they would _ the furlough scheme, because without that they said they would have - the furlough scheme, because without that they said they would have gone i that they said they would have gone under— that they said they would have gone under and _ that they said they would have gone under and wouldn't _ that they said they would have gone under and wouldn't be _ that they said they would have gone under and wouldn't be in _ that they said they would have gone under and wouldn't be in existence. | under and wouldn't be in existence. there _ under and wouldn't be in existence. there were — under and wouldn't be in existence. there were a — under and wouldn't be in existence. there were a whole _ under and wouldn't be in existence. there were a whole host _ under and wouldn't be in existence. there were a whole host of- under and wouldn't be in existence. there were a whole host of factorsi there were a whole host of factors in play _ there were a whole host of factors in play in _ there were a whole host of factors in play in 2021, _ there were a whole host of factors in play in 2021, mostly _ there were a whole host of factors in play in 2021, mostly around i there were a whole host of factors in play in 2021, mostly around the | in play in 2021, mostly around the pandemic— in play in 2021, mostly around the pandemic and _ in play in 2021, mostly around the pandemic and the _ in play in 2021, mostly around the pandemic and the vaccine - in play in 2021, mostly around the l pandemic and the vaccine roll—out. if pandemic and the vaccine roll—out. it but— pandemic and the vaccine roll—out. it but the _ pandemic and the vaccine roll—out. if but the problem _ pandemic and the vaccine roll—out. if but the problem for— pandemic and the vaccine roll—out. if but the problem for you, - pandemic and the vaccine roll—out. if but the problem for you, voters, | if but the problem for you, voters, when you had borisjohnson, he was a close ally of yours, still a good conservative, very clearly you are far less popular than you were then? we're 14 years into a conservative government _ we're 14 years into a conservative government. elements— we're 14 years into a conservative government. elements of- we're 14 years into a conservative government. elements of it, i we're 14 years into a conservative| government. elements of it, when we're 14 years into a conservative i government. elements of it, when you are at— government. elements of it, when you are at this _ government. elements of it, when you are at this stage. — government. elements of it, when you are at this stage, we _ government. elements of it, when you are at this stage, we definitely- are at this stage, we definitely need _ are at this stage, we definitely need to— are at this stage, we definitely need to earn— are at this stage, we definitely need to earn the _ are at this stage, we definitely need to earn the trust - are at this stage, we definitely need to earn the trust of- are at this stage, we definitely. need to earn the trust of voters, who are, — need to earn the trust of voters, who are, i— need to earn the trust of voters, who are, i would _ need to earn the trust of voters, who are, i would say _ need to earn the trust of voters, who are, i would say ambivalentj who are, i would say ambivalent about— who are, i would say ambivalent about is— who are, i would say ambivalent about is at— who are, i would say ambivalent about is at the _ who are, i would say ambivalent about is at the site. _ who are, i would say ambivalent about is at the site. ambivalent? is interesting — about is at the site. ambivalent? is interesting. chris _ about is at the site. ambivalent? is interesting. chris heaton _ about is at the site. ambivalent? is interesting. chris heaton harris, i about is at the site. ambivalent? is| interesting. chris heaton harris, we will say goodbye to you now, we are grateful to you for your time

tonight. let's take you back to what is one of the first big contest of the night. i think those pictures are of the count in hartlepool and someone is telling us something. 919 votes. local conservatives, 339. there were 12 void and therefore can you come forward.— you come forward. hartlepool council, labour _ you come forward. hartlepool council, labour have - you come forward. hartlepool council, labour have told i you come forward. hartlepool council, labour have told us i you come forward. hartlepool. council, labour have told us on you come forward. hartlepool i council, labour have told us on the ground they think they will take hartlepool. jonathan reynolds have been telling us that it is something they will be delighted about. the overall result from hartlepool is not yet confirmed. what we were hearing was the result of one ward that was being announced as the night goes on. as soon as we have an

official result in hartlepool we will let you know. it is good to hear returning officer is giving us updates, even if it was hard to hear. let's listen with careful attention to helen kat. you are at one of the big stories of the night, we don't know which way it's going in blackpool south in the by—election. you have been telling us a couple of hours ago labour seem sure of taking it, but the contest is between the tories for second place, but can you give us an update on when we might get the result? i on when we might get the result? i really wish i could laura. at this stage they haven't started counting any votes in blackpool south. they are still in verification and they have just called the candidates to the table to solve an issue, we don't know what it is yet. not a single vote has been counted so we are expecting this to be quite late. as you said, there are expectations, labour are very confident they will

win this. but the party also think labour have got this, quite frankly. that is the expected result we think we will get with whatever time it comes in the morning. what is less clear is what is happening with the other parties. reform and the conservatives are saying initially they thought it would be the conservative second and reform be fed. but in recent hours, reform think they have done better. i think we are getting... that is progress, the count is starting finally in blackpool south. taste the count is starting finally in blackpool south.— the count is starting finally in blackool south. ~ . . , blackpool south. we can all cheers to that with — blackpool south. we can all cheers to that with our _ blackpool south. we can all cheers to that with our cups _ blackpool south. we can all cheers to that with our cups of _ blackpool south. we can all cheers to that with our cups of tea. - blackpool south. we can all cheers to that with our cups of tea. the i to that with our cups of tea. the county will begin, the verification is complete, but fascinating what you are saying. we had a chat with mark butcher, that reform candidate and he seemed to think being in second place might be an option for him? he sounded very optimistic,

perhaps more optimistic than he was at the beginning of the night. the conservatives might have been squeezed into second place, third place, rather? the squeezed into second place, third place. rather?— place, rather? the conservatives thou~ht place, rather? the conservatives thought they _ place, rather? the conservatives thought they were _ place, rather? the conservatives thought they were hanging - place, rather? the conservatives thought they were hanging on i place, rather? the conservatives thought they were hanging on to | thought they were hanging on to second place. reform think they have looked at the sampling that has been done here that they perform better in the postal ballots than they had previously. reform are saying they thought they performed well within voters today. but until they get the counting and the way i think there might be a clearer picture. taste counting and the way i think there might be a clearer picture. we are lad at might be a clearer picture. we are glad at the — might be a clearer picture. we are glad at the very — might be a clearer picture. we are glad at the very least, _ might be a clearer picture. we are glad at the very least, the - glad at the very least, the hard—working people in blackpool can get on with the important task. helen, we will talk to later in the programme. let's quickly chat to m0 hussein who used to work as a

conservative special adviser. thank you for your patience. it sounds there, from what helen was telling us, the conservatives may end up in third place in the blackpool south by—election. we are not confirming that, but that seems to be the way it is going according to our intelligence on the ground. if that happened, what would be direction of the conservative party? it happened, what would be direction of the conservative party?— the conservative party? it would be concerning- — the conservative party? it would be concerning. mps _ the conservative party? it would be concerning. mps have _ the conservative party? it would be concerning. mps have already i the conservative party? it would be concerning. mps have already been j concerning. mps have already been jittery and there is prospect of a pincer movement. labourfrom jittery and there is prospect of a pincer movement. labour from the left and reform from the right. if reform end up polling well and get an increased vote share then the pressure will be on again. i think that needs to come on the prime minister, that is and it leads to a next essential question for the party, do they move more towards the right? you have seen this choreography of announcements from number ten, the red meat around

welfare reform, around the rwanda passing in the commons and defence spending, or do they try and appeal more to the mainstream and capture some of the voters they may lose from 2019? it does cause a lot more problems for number ten. in from 2019? it does cause a lot more problems for number ten.— from 2019? it does cause a lot more problems for number ten. in terms of what they could _ problems for number ten. in terms of what they could do _ problems for number ten. in terms of what they could do to _ problems for number ten. in terms of what they could do to try _ problems for number ten. in terms of what they could do to try to _ problems for number ten. in terms of what they could do to try to rectify i what they could do to try to rectify that, what would you be saying if he were still working for them in government? it were still working for them in government?— were still working for them in government? it is really, really challenging- — government? it is really, really challenging. you _ government? it is really, really challenging. you have - government? it is really, really challenging. you have to - government? it is really, really challenging. you have to make| government? it is really, really. challenging. you have to make a decision. each decision you make somebody will get annoyed. you have seen this movement from the prime minister where he tried to go more to the right so you alienate part of the conservative coalition, which is what it really is. the moderates, the one nation and the harder you go on immigration and other issues, you will end up freezing somebody out or if you go more to the mainstream, you will possibly lose more voters to reform. i think it is a bit of a catch—22 situation, you cannot be

all things to all people and the one thing you will hear a lot from, conservative mps and spokespeople is tees valley. that will be the buzzword and that will be a protective shield for the prime minister if that is retained. that will last for a while but mps will still be nervous because looking at the underlying results on the local elections, what it means for them in the upcoming general election, that is what it will be of concern for them and they will also remember that ben houchen has complained without really even mentioning the prime minister or the government and has invoked borisjohnson to help him. so this does not bode well. ma him. so this does not bode well. mo hussein, thank you forjoining us and for your patience and hanging on. it makes me think of a minister said to me, there are lots of places where planet could come. let's see where planet could come. let's see where we are. we can bring you the result that

south tyneside has been