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this programme contains some strong language and some discriminatory language. election night fever, as bbc gets ready to bring you the results of the last big vote before the general election. will it be boom time for starmer? or will it be doom time for sunak? the bbc�*s election programme kicks off in an hour's time. you can see just a few of their many live points warming up. with a pick�*n�*mix of votes under the count tonight, to discuss them we'll be joined

by the chair of the labour party, a senior cabinet minister and the personification of political analysis, professor sirjohn curtice. we'll also talk to the person most likely to be the new first minister of scotland, john swinney, now that kate forbes has thrown her weight behind him. and with the looming prospect of deportation flights to rwanda, a warning you will hear strong and discriminatory language as a protestor is racially abused attempting to stop asylum seekers being moved out of hotels by government contactors. shouting. good evening. it's a bonanza! almost 2,600 council seats in england, 37 police and crime commissioners in england and wales, one london mayor and assembly members, ten other mayors and metro mayors — and one byelection in blackpool south. so when voters are exercised by local issues which don't always translate into a general election vote, when some contests

are about personalities not politics, how much can this clutch — which misses out scotland, northern ireland and is very patchy in wales — be a bellweather for the general election? what should we looking for and what should we discount as the political spin cycle revs up? before we speak to the labour party chair, annelise dodds, and the northern ireland secretary, chris heaton harries and john curtice — nick's here. what are the camp saying? what are the manoeuvres like? i’m what are the camp saying? what are the manoeuvres like?— the manoeuvres like? i'm here in hartlepool_ the manoeuvres like? i'm here in hartlepool which _ the manoeuvres like? i'm here in hartlepool which is _ the manoeuvres like? i'm here in hartlepool which is the _ the manoeuvres like? i'm here in hartlepool which is the scene - the manoeuvres like? i'm here in hartlepool which is the scene of. the manoeuvres like? i'm here in i hartlepool which is the scene of the lowest point of keir starmer�*s leadership of the labour party when he lost that by—election here three years ago. the reason why that was so bad is that that went backwards on labour�*s worst general election result since 1935. so will the labour party stage a comeback here in hartlepool? they think they will. and then tomorrow counting will be under way in the wider tees valley

mayoral contest, will the incumbent conservative mayor ben houchen hold on? and what of the party saying about the national picture? what labour are saying is that they believe every incumbent mayor will hold on, so that means ben houchen for the tories here in the tees valley. it means andy street for the conservatives winning for the west midlands. in london it means that it can't for london, and it means sadiq andy burnham in manchester. the contest are deliberately designed to be big, independent figures with those economic powers, and in the case of ben houchen and andy street, they have been running in the opposite direction of their parties, and have effectively been running as independents, conservative in name only. what the labour party are

saying is, if you want to know what will happen in the general election, look at the by—election in blackpool south. they are confident that they are going to win and the conservatives are confident that it will go to the labour party. in the labour are saying looking at the councils, that is much more significant, and they predict that they are going to take three really important council. hartlepool, redditch and thurrock. and they say the significance of that is that there is a parliamentary battleground seats, so that will show that they are in business. what is the conservative party saying? they are saying tees valley mayoral contest, reasonably 0k, they think. west midlands, andy street, they think it is on a knife edge. they believe they are doing badly in their traditional shia areas, the conservative party, but they are doing well in marginal seats. the liberal democrats are saying that they will have to wait until five o'clock tomorrow before they start to see themselves in the areas where they are in contest, woking and places like tunbridge wells. but what the liberal democrats are

picking up is that in parliamentary battleground seats that they need to win at the general election, they can see labour voters voting tactically for the lib dems. so tell me, tactically for the lib dems. so tell me. nick. — tactically for the lib dems. so tell me. nick. is _ tactically for the lib dems. so tell me, nick, is there _ tactically for the lib dems. so tell me, nick, is there going - tactically for the lib dems. so tell me, nick, is there going to - tactically for the lib dems. so tell me, nick, is there going to be - tactically for the lib dems. so tell| me, nick, is there going to be any kind of life raft for rishi sunak because of the mayorals or not? do we assume not?— because of the mayorals or not? do we assume not? well, if ben houchen were to win — we assume not? well, if ben houchen were to win in — we assume not? well, if ben houchen were to win in tees _ we assume not? well, if ben houchen were to win in tees valley, _ we assume not? well, if ben houchen were to win in tees valley, that - were to win in tees valley, that would shore up rishi sunak. if andy street were to win in the west midlands, and labourare street were to win in the west midlands, and labour are saying he will, that would be a lifeline for rishi sunak. as we know, labour will say that is irrelevant in general election. what the conservatives will say is wait a minute, this shows we are still in business, and politics is about that feeling, and interestingly i was talking to one senior labourfigure who interestingly i was talking to one senior labour figure who is close to keir starmer. they were saying they're absolutely sure that ben houchen will win in the valley, and their view is, this is a labour

person, their view is that will be enough to keep rishi sunak in post until the autumn if he wants to have the general election in the autumn. i do have to say, that news from the keir starmer camp about rishi sunak potentially surviving until the general election will come as a huge disappointment to a group of tories who have laid very careful plans to use this weekend and the fallout from these results to launch a coup to get ready rishi sunak. their view is if these results are bad, they are confident that they can get the letters to trigger a no—confidence vote in the prime minister. that is disputed, but it is dependent on the tories doing badly. if they have this life raft of the prime minister, you can bet your bottom dollar that rishi sunak will be shouting from the rooftops about a ben houchen win. thank you very much. northern ireland secretary, chris heaton—harris, what about this idea

that tory mps are in manoeuvres? apart from it being a pile of rubbish are not provable on any level whatsoever, it is honestly a great theory and fills a few lines for nick, but we have been out around the country campaigning to get our mayor is elected, campaigning to get labour mayors out, and campaigning to get good councils in. but out, and campaigning to get good councils im— out, and campaigning to get good councils in. �* ., ., councils in. but what about the view that they haven't _ councils in. but what about the view that they haven't actually _ councils in. but what about the view that they haven't actually been - that they haven't actually been really taking any notice of any tory policy, the mayors, they have been acting as fiefdoms. i policy, the mayors, they have been acting as fiefdoms.— acting as fiefdoms. i have a huge amount of— acting as fiefdoms. i have a huge amount of respect _ acting as fiefdoms. i have a huge amount of respect for _ acting as fiefdoms. i have a huge amount of respect for nick, - acting as fiefdoms. i have a huge amount of respect for nick, we i acting as fiefdoms. i have a huge| amount of respect for nick, we go back a long way, but again, he is wrong. they are conservative mayors, they have conservative on the ballot paper, they come painful by conservative mps and rishi has been all over this campaign. but conservative mps and rishi has been all over this campaign.— all over this campaign. but we do know two things. _ all over this campaign. but we do know two things. first _ all over this campaign. but we do know two things. first is - all over this campaign. but we do know two things. first is in - all over this campaign. but we do know two things. first is in the i know two things. first is in the west_ know two things. first is in the west midlands at the same time as andy street has been able to win them _ andy street has been able to win them a _ andy street has been able to win them a reality, the labour party has won the _ them a reality, the labour party has won the parallel police and crime

commissioner election. it is won the parallel police and crime commissioner election.— won the parallel police and crime commissioner election. it is a split vote. but commissioner election. it is a split vote- but the _ commissioner election. it is a split vote. but the point _ commissioner election. it is a split vote. but the point is _ commissioner election. it is a split vote. but the point is if _ commissioner election. it is a split vote. but the point is if you - commissioner election. it is a split vote. but the point is if you are - vote. but the point is if you are lookin: vote. but the point is if you are looking as _ vote. but the point is if you are looking as a — vote. but the point is if you are looking as a guide, _ vote. but the point is if you are looking as a guide, trying - vote. but the point is if you are looking as a guide, trying to i vote. but the point is if you are i looking as a guide, trying to claim this as _ looking as a guide, trying to claim this as evidence that andy street is a guide _ this as evidence that andy street is a guide to — this as evidence that andy street is a guide to election prospects, we have _ a guide to election prospects, we have to _ a guide to election prospects, we have to take into account what happens — have to take into account what happens in the police and crime commission elections as well. the second _ commission elections as well. the second point is that we know from the polling — second point is that we know from the polling that has been done in the polling that has been done in the tees— the polling that has been done in the tees valley and in the west midlands that both ben houchen and andy street, win or lose, going to do better— andy street, win or lose, going to do better than the conservative party— do better than the conservative party would do in a election held now _ party would do in a election held now the — party would do in a election held now. the same is going on in london. sadiq _ now. the same is going on in london. sadiq khan _ now. the same is going on in london. sadiq khan will not do as well in london — sadiq khan will not do as well in london as— sadiq khan will not do as well in london as the labour party would do in london. _ london as the labour party would do in london. so — london as the labour party would do in london, so we have to realise that— in london, so we have to realise that these — in london, so we have to realise that these mayoral contest do to some _ that these mayoral contest do to some degree depend on the personality and notjust some degree depend on the personality and not just the party label, _ personality and not just the party label, and — personality and not just the party label, and we don't want to admit that labour is right, but labour do have _ that labour is right, but labour do have a _ that labour is right, but labour do have a point— that labour is right, but labour do have a point that at the end of the day, _ have a point that at the end of the day, if— have a point that at the end of the day, if we're going to come to reasonable judgment about where the

parties _ reasonable judgment about where the parties stand on the general election, it is going to be a much broader— election, it is going to be a much broader range of counsel results that we — broader range of counsel results that we should be looking at, and the police — that we should be looking at, and the police and crime commission elections — the police and crime commission elections are not focusing on two very particular contest. but elections are not focusing on two very particular contest.— very particular contest. but if it is correct _ very particular contest. but if it is correct that _ very particular contest. but if it is correct that the _ very particular contest. but if it is correct that the prediction i very particular contest. but if it | is correct that the prediction will be that you will lose 500 seats of the thousands you hold on the council areas, that is what nick is saying. if it looks increasingly bad... . , saying. if it looks increasingly bad... ., , ., ., bad... that is not what nick said. that is what _ bad... that is not what nick said. that is what nick _ bad... that is not what nick said. that is what nick said. _ bad... that is not what nick said. that is what nick said. you - bad... that is not what nick said. that is what nick said. you are i that is what nick said. you are former chief whip, you know what is going on. i former chief whip, you know what is auoin on. ., ~' former chief whip, you know what is auoin on. ., ~ ., former chief whip, you know what is auoin on. ., ., ., ., going on. i would like to think i have not going on. i would like to think i have got a _ going on. i would like to think i have got a good _ going on. i would like to think i have got a good idea, - going on. i would like to think i have got a good idea, and - going on. i would like to think i have got a good idea, and if. going on. i would like to think i j have got a good idea, and if we going on. i would like to think i i have got a good idea, and if we do do well in the tees valley, that is an area that before 2019, labour held every parliamentary seat. but what does that say to ordinary tory members that feel very upset about what is happening? and very disaffected.— what is happening? and very disaffected. ., ., ., ., , disaffected. that says to ordinary tory members — disaffected. that says to ordinary tory members that _ disaffected. that says to ordinary tory members that when - disaffected. that says to ordinary tory members that when a - disaffected. that says to ordinary| tory members that when a leader disaffected. that says to ordinary i tory members that when a leader of disaffected. that says to ordinary - tory members that when a leader of a mayoralty, or the leader of the country does well and delivers on promises, they have got a very good

chance of being rewarded by the voter. �* , , voter. and let me 'ust bring in anneriese h voter. and let me 'ust bring in anneliese dodds. _ voter. and let me just bring in anneliese dodds. keir- voter. and let me just bring in | anneliese dodds. keir starmer voter. and let me just bring in - anneliese dodds. keir starmer was trying to change the narrative away from the mayoral elections, and that didn't happen. those elections are what is going to keep us going here, then wasn't the right tactic for keir starmer.— then wasn't the right tactic for keir starmer. actually, keir was reflectin: keir starmer. actually, keir was reflecting the — keir starmer. actually, keir was reflecting the reality, _ keir starmer. actually, keir was reflecting the reality, which - keir starmer. actually, keir was reflecting the reality, which as l keir starmer. actually, keir was i reflecting the reality, which as we have a _ reflecting the reality, which as we have a whole _ reflecting the reality, which as we have a whole set _ reflecting the reality, which as we have a whole set of— reflecting the reality, which as we have a whole set of elections - reflecting the reality, which as we have a whole set of elections thatj have a whole set of elections that are taking — have a whole set of elections that are taking place _ have a whole set of elections that are taking place at _ have a whole set of elections that are taking place at the _ have a whole set of elections that are taking place at the moment. have a whole set of elections that i are taking place at the moment. of course _ are taking place at the moment. of course the — are taking place at the moment. of course the only— are taking place at the moment. of course the only election _ are taking place at the moment. of course the only election where - are taking place at the moment. of course the only election where youl course the only election where you have got _ course the only election where you have got an — course the only election where you have got an unabashedly _ course the only election where you i have got an unabashedly conservative candidate _ have got an unabashedly conservative candidate backed _ have got an unabashedly conservative candidate backed by— have got an unabashedly conservative candidate backed by rishi _ have got an unabashedly conservative candidate backed by rishi sunak- have got an unabashedly conservative candidate backed by rishi sunak and. candidate backed by rishi sunak and putting _ candidate backed by rishi sunak and putting that — candidate backed by rishi sunak and putting that on — candidate backed by rishi sunak and putting that on the _ candidate backed by rishi sunak and putting that on the leaflets - candidate backed by rishi sunak and putting that on the leaflets is - candidate backed by rishi sunak and putting that on the leaflets is in - putting that on the leaflets is in blackpool — putting that on the leaflets is in blackpool south, _ putting that on the leaflets is in blackpool south, where - putting that on the leaflets is in blackpool south, where there i putting that on the leaflets is inj blackpool south, where there is putting that on the leaflets is in - blackpool south, where there is that clear contest — blackpool south, where there is that clear contest against _ blackpool south, where there is that clear contest against a _ blackpool south, where there is that clear contest against a proud - clear contest against a proud conservative _ clear contest against a proud conservative against - clear contest against a proud conservative against a - clear contest against a proud i conservative against a labour clear contest against a proud - conservative against a labour party candidate, — conservative against a labour party candidate, and _ conservative against a labour party candidate, and we _ conservative against a labour party candidate, and we will— conservative against a labour party candidate, and we will see - conservative against a labour party candidate, and we will see the - candidate, and we will see the results — candidate, and we will see the results from _ candidate, and we will see the results from blackpool - candidate, and we will see the results from blackpool south i candidate, and we will see the | results from blackpool south in candidate, and we will see the - results from blackpool south in the middle _ results from blackpool south in the middle of _ results from blackpool south in the middle of tonight, _ results from blackpool south in the middle of tonight, and _ results from blackpool south in the middle of tonight, and i'm - results from blackpool south in the i middle of tonight, and i'm confident that we _ middle of tonight, and i'm confident that we will— middle of tonight, and i'm confident that we will see chris _ middle of tonight, and i'm confident that we will see chris webb - middle of tonight, and i'm confident that we will see chris webb being i that we will see chris webb being elected — that we will see chris webb being elected and _ that we will see chris webb being elected. and that _ that we will see chris webb being elected. and that is— that we will see chris webb being elected. and that is a _ that we will see chris webb being elected. and that is a clear- elected. and that is a clear contestm _ elected. and that is a clear contest- - -_ elected. and that is a clear contest... �* ., ., ., ., contest... but that again, what would be a _ contest... but that again, what would be a good _ contest... but that again, what would be a good night - contest... but that again, what would be a good night for - contest... but that again, what would be a good night for keir|

would be a good night for keir starmer? 200 more council seats, 300 more? what is the measure? the measure is _ more? what is the measure? the measure is whether labour can move forward _ measure is whether labour can move forward in _ measure is whether labour can move forward in those _ measure is whether labour can move forward in those constituencies - forward in those constituencies where — forward in those constituencies where we — forward in those constituencies where we need _ forward in those constituencies where we need to _ forward in those constituencies where we need to be _ forward in those constituencies where we need to be strong. forward in those constituencies - where we need to be strong before the next _ where we need to be strong before the next general— where we need to be strong before the next general election. - where we need to be strong before the next general election. of- the next general election. of course, — the next general election. of course, last— the next general election. of course, last year— the next general election. of course, last year was - the next general election. of course, last year was an - the next general election. of- course, last year was an absolute wipe-out — course, last year was an absolute wipe-out for— course, last year was an absolute wipe—out for the _ course, last year was an absolute wipe—out for the conservatives. i course, last year was an absolute | wipe—out for the conservatives. it was their— wipe—out for the conservatives. it was their lowest— wipe—out for the conservatives. it was their lowest watermark. - wipe—out for the conservatives. it was their lowest watermark. you i was their lowest watermark. you would _ was their lowest watermark. you would expect _ was their lowest watermark. you would expect when _ was their lowest watermark. you would expect when we _ was their lowest watermark. you would expect when we are - was their lowest watermark. you | would expect when we are almost was their lowest watermark. you - would expect when we are almost at a general election. _ would expect when we are almost at a general election, looking _ would expect when we are almost at a general election, looking at _ would expect when we are almost at a general election, looking at all - would expect when we are almost at a general election, looking at all the - general election, looking at all the previous— general election, looking at all the previous times, _ general election, looking at all the previous times, under— general election, looking at all the previous times, underjohn - general election, looking at all the previous times, underjohn major, | previous times, underjohn major, for e>

is a degree — want to convince people that there is a degree of enthusiasm about the prospect— is a degree of enthusiasm about the prospect of— is a degree of enthusiasm about the prospect of labour entering government as opposed to essentially profiting _ government as opposed to essentially profiting from the misfortunes that have fallen before this government in the _ have fallen before this government in the last— have fallen before this government in the last four years, many of them admittedly— in the last four years, many of them admittedly self inflicted, you need to be _ admittedly self inflicted, you need to be doing better than you did in the last— to be doing better than you did in the last local elections. sol to be doing better than you did in the last local elections. so i am looking — the last local elections. so i am looking across to see whether or not you're _ looking across to see whether or not you're picking up votes not simply compared — you're picking up votes not simply compared with 21 but compared with last year~ _ compared with 21 but compared with last year. of course blackpool south, — last year. of course blackpool south, frankly, annalise, if you cannot— south, frankly, annalise, if you cannot win _ south, frankly, annalise, if you cannot win a constituency that was yours _ cannot win a constituency that was yours until— cannot win a constituency that was yours until 2019, it is a very easy target — yours until 2019, it is a very easy target if— yours until 2019, it is a very easy taruet. .. . , yours until 2019, it is a very easy taruet... , , target... ifi may say, you surely know the — target... ifi may say, you surely know the history _ target... ifi may say, you surely know the history of _ target... ifi may say, you surely know the history of this. - target... ifi may say, you surelyj know the history of this. actually for the _ know the history of this. actually for the 78— know the history of this. actually for the 78 years _ know the history of this. actually for the 78 years that _ know the history of this. actually for the 78 years that that - for the 78 years that that constituency _ for the 78 years that that constituency has - for the 78 years that that constituency has been i for the 78 years that that constituency has been in| for the 78 years that that _ constituency has been in existence, it is my— constituency has been in existence, it is my understanding _ constituency has been in existence, it is my understanding that- constituency has been in existence, it is my understanding that the - it is my understanding that the conservatives— it is my understanding that the conservatives and _ it is my understanding that the conservatives and the - conservatives and the representatives - conservatives and the representatives of - conservatives and the - representatives of blackpool for conservatives and the _ representatives of blackpool for 57 of those _ representatives of blackpool for 57 of those years. _ representatives of blackpool for 57 of those years, so _ representatives of blackpool for 57 of those years, so this _ representatives of blackpool for 57 of those years, so this is _ representatives of blackpool for 57 of those years, so this is not - representatives of blackpool for 57 of those years, so this is not a - of those years, so this is not a nailed — of those years, so this is not a nailed on _ of those years, so this is not a nailed on place _ of those years, so this is not a nailed on place where - of those years, so this is not a i nailed on place where ultimately of those years, so this is not a - nailed on place where ultimately it is in the _ nailed on place where ultimately it is in the gift— nailed on place where ultimately it is in the gift of— nailed on place where ultimately it is in the gift of any— nailed on place where ultimately it is in the gift of any party, - nailed on place where ultimately it is in the gift of any party, it - nailed on place where ultimately it is in the gift of any party, it is - is in the gift of any party, it is the only— is in the gift of any party, it is the only contest _ is in the gift of any party, it is the only contest of— is in the gift of any party, it is the only contest of national. the only contest of national significance _ the only contest of national significance where - the only contest of national significance where you - the only contest of national| significance where you have the only contest of national- significance where you have got an unabashed — significance where you have got an unabashed conservative _ significance where you have got an unabashed conservative actually. unabashed conservative actually proud _ unabashed conservative actually proud to — unabashed conservative actually proud to put _ unabashed conservative actually proud to put conservative - unabashed conservative actually proud to put conservative on - unabashed conservative actually|

proud to put conservative on the leaflet _ proud to put conservative on the leaflet who — proud to put conservative on the leaflet who is _ proud to put conservative on the leaflet who is going _ proud to put conservative on the leaflet who is going up _ proud to put conservative on the leaflet who is going up against i proud to put conservative on the leaflet who is going up against a| leaflet who is going up against a representative. _ leaflet who is going up against a representative. [— leaflet who is going up against a representative.— leaflet who is going up against a reresentative. ., ., _, . ,, representative. i want to come back, and i know representative. i want to come back, and i know you _ representative. i want to come back, and i know you dispute _ representative. i want to come back, and i know you dispute what - representative. i want to come back, and i know you dispute what nick - and i know you dispute what nick watt was saying, but let's look at this, in terms of people who might move again. would the tories move against another prime minister seven months out from an election? would you almost back rishi sunak100% towards the next election? yes. you almost back rishi sunak100% towards the next election? yes, and auain, towards the next election? yes, and again. forgive _ towards the next election? yes, and again. forgive me — towards the next election? yes, and again, forgive me for _ towards the next election? yes, and again, forgive me for pushing - towards the next election? yes, and again, forgive me for pushing back i again, forgive me for pushing back on the premise, but conservatives... but we know there are names there, names have been put in the ring. who names have been put in the ring. who are the ? names have been put in the ring. who are they? well. _ names have been put in the ring. who are they? well, it _ names have been put in the ring. who are they? well, it is _ names have been put in the ring. who are they? well, it is a _ names have been put in the ring. who are they? well, it is a secret. - names have been put in the ring. who are they? well, it is a secret. this - are they? well, it is a secret. this is what i struggle _ are they? well, it is a secret. this is what i struggle with _ are they? well, it is a secret. this is what i struggle with slightly, i is what i struggle with slightly, kirsty, because this is that is soon to be turning into news when ashley there is a set of elections going on out there, really important elections, and key test for us and whether our conservative mayors can hold onto their seats, whether we can push hard and increase our votes in london, whether we can maintain conservative councillors getting

elected across the piece. but you know that there _ elected across the piece. but you know that there are _ elected across the piece. but you know that there are dissatisfied i know that there are dissatisfied backbenchers. are you telling me there are none quite a lot i am boris's chief whip, so i know there are some. but i can tell you there are some. but i can tell you there are disaffected backbenchers on the labour side, that is the nature of politics. we are going to come onto this a little bit later, but one of the big issues coming into the election, anneliese dodds, will be illegal migration. would an incoming labour government keep the rwanda plan as it is or until and unless they found something different? he. they found something different? no, we are not going to continue with that plan — we are not going to continue with that plan so _ we are not going to continue with that lan. ,, we are not going to continue with that lan. i. ., we are not going to continue with that lan. ,, ., , .,, we are not going to continue with that lan. ., , ., that plan. so you would stop it on da one? that plan. so you would stop it on day one? we _ that plan. so you would stop it on day one? we believe _ that plan. so you would stop it on day one? we believe it _ that plan. so you would stop it on day one? we believe it is - that plan. so you would stop it on day one? we believe it is a - that plan. so you would stop it on day one? we believe it is a costly| day one? we believe it is a costly con. day one? we believe it is a costly con- yaxley _ day one? we believe it is a costly con. yaxley more _ day one? we believe it is a costly con. yaxley more people - day one? we believe it is a costly con. yaxley more people coming | day one? we believe it is a costly i con. yaxley more people coming in, it is not— con. yaxley more people coming in, it is not working. _ con. yaxley more people coming in, it is not working, because... - con. yaxley more people coming in, it is not working, because... if- con. yaxley more people coming in, it is not working, because... if i- it is not working, because... if i can finish. — it is not working, because... if i can finish, yesterday, _ it is not working, because... if i can finish, yesterday, there - it is not working, because... if i. can finish, yesterday, there were more _ can finish, yesterday, there were more people _ can finish, yesterday, there were more people who _ can finish, yesterday, there were more people who came - can finish, yesterday, there were more people who came into - can finish, yesterday, there were more people who came into the i can finish, yesterday, there were i more people who came into the uk can finish, yesterday, there were - more people who came into the uk on boats, _ more people who came into the uk on boats. in_ more people who came into the uk on boats. in fact — more people who came into the uk on boats, in fact double _ more people who came into the uk on boats, in fact double the _ more people who came into the uk on boats, in fact double the number- more people who came into the uk on boats, in fact double the number of. boats, in fact double the number of people _

boats, in fact double the number of people came — boats, in fact double the number of people came into— boats, in fact double the number of people came into the _ boats, in fact double the number of people came into the uk— boats, in fact double the number of people came into the uk on- boats, in fact double the number of people came into the uk on boats i people came into the uk on boats than would — people came into the uk on boats than would be _ people came into the uk on boats than would be covered... - people came into the uk on boats than would be covered... can- people came into the uk on boats than would be covered... can i. than would be covered... can i finish? — than would be covered... can i finish? ., , , , _ than would be covered... can i finish? .,,.,_ , _ finish? probably helped by your amnesty policy- _ finish? probably helped by your amnesty policy. we _ finish? probably helped by your amnesty policy. we do - finish? probably helped by your amnesty policy. we do not - finish? probably helped by your| amnesty policy. we do not have finish? probably helped by your - amnesty policy. we do not have an amnesty policy. — amnesty policy. we do not have an amnesty policy, that _ amnesty policy. we do not have an amnesty policy, that is _ amnesty policy. we do not have an amnesty policy, that is ridiculous. l amnesty policy, that is ridiculous. but if— amnesty policy, that is ridiculous. but if i _ amnesty policy, that is ridiculous. but if i can— amnesty policy, that is ridiculous. but if i canjust _ amnesty policy, that is ridiculous. but if i canjust finish. _ amnesty policy, that is ridiculous. but if i canjust finish. to - amnesty policy, that is ridiculous. but if i can just finish.— but if i can 'ust finish. to get back to but if i can just finish. to get back to the _ but if i can just finish. to get back to the original- but if i can just finish. to get| back to the original question, but if i can just finish. to get i back to the original question, to but if i can just finish. to get - back to the original question, to be absolutely clear here, if a labour government was elected, day one, you would end that policy? we continue won't with that costly con. we continue won't with that costly con~ it— we continue won't with that costly con~ it is— we continue won't with that costly con~ it is not— we continue won't with that costly con. it is not dealing _ we continue won't with that costly con. it is not dealing with- we continue won't with that costly con. it is not dealing with the - con. it is not dealing with the issue — con. it is not dealing with the issue what _ con. it is not dealing with the issue what i _ con. it is not dealing with the issue. what i was _ con. it is not dealing with the issue. what i was trying - con. it is not dealing with the issue. what i was trying to i con. it is not dealing with thel issue. what i was trying to say con. it is not dealing with the . issue. what i was trying to say is yesterday — issue. what i was trying to say is yesterday you _ issue. what i was trying to say is yesterday you had _ issue. what i was trying to say is yesterday you had twice - issue. what i was trying to say is yesterday you had twice the - issue. what i was trying to say is . yesterday you had twice the number of people _ yesterday you had twice the number of people coming _ yesterday you had twice the number of people coming into _ yesterday you had twice the number of people coming into the _ yesterday you had twice the number of people coming into the uk - yesterday you had twice the number of people coming into the uk the i of people coming into the uk the than would — of people coming into the uk the than would be _ of people coming into the uk the than would be covered _ of people coming into the uk the than would be covered in- of people coming into the uk the than would be covered in a - of people coming into the uk thej than would be covered in a whole year by _ than would be covered in a whole year by y— than would be covered in a whole year by y the _ than would be covered in a whole year by y the rwanda _ than would be covered in a whole year by y the rwanda scheme. it| year by y the rwanda scheme. it would _ year by y the rwanda scheme. it would be — year by y the rwanda scheme. it would be cheaper— year by y the rwanda scheme. it would be cheaper to— year by y the rwanda scheme. it would be cheaper to send - year by y the rwanda scheme. it would be cheaper to send all- year by y the rwanda scheme. it i would be cheaper to send all these people _ would be cheaper to send all these people that — would be cheaper to send all these people that covered _ would be cheaper to send all these people that covered by— would be cheaper to send all these people that covered by rwanda - would be cheaper to send all these people that covered by rwanda toi people that covered by rwanda to send them — people that covered by rwanda to send them to _ people that covered by rwanda to send them to paris— people that covered by rwanda to send them to paris to _ people that covered by rwanda to send them to paris to put - people that covered by rwanda to send them to paris to put them i people that covered by rwanda to| send them to paris to put them up people that covered by rwanda to i send them to paris to put them up in the paris _ send them to paris to put them up in the paris ritz— send them to paris to put them up in the paris ritz for— send them to paris to put them up in the paris ritz for years. _ send them to paris to put them up in the paris ritz for years. you - send them to paris to put them up in the paris ritz for years.— the paris ritz for years. you accept the paris ritz for years. you accept the figures. _ the paris ritz for years. you accept the figures, the _ the paris ritz for years. you accept the figures, the people _ the paris ritz for years. you accept the figures, the people coming - the paris ritz for years. you accept the figures, the people coming in i the figures, the people coming in have not been deterred by the

prospect of a rwanda flight? but i also accept _ prospect of a rwanda flight? but i also accept that _ prospect of a rwanda flight? but i also accept that labour— prospect of a rwanda flight? but i also accept that labour don't have a policy _ also accept that labour don't have a policy on _ also accept that labour don't have a policy on this and actually... you don't have _ policy on this and actually... you don't have a _ policy on this and actually... you don't have a plan. _ policy on this and actually... you don't have a plan. that _ policy on this and actually... you don't have a plan. that is - don't have a plan. that is different. _ don't have a plan. that is different. what _ don't have a plan. that is different. what i'm - don't have a plan. that is| different. what i'm asking don't have a plan. that is - different. what i'm asking you, is has the prospect of rwanda, just wait a minute, has the prospect of rwanda, just waita minute, if has the prospect of rwanda, just wait a minute, if you, looking at the prospect of rwanda does not appear to be stopping people attempting to cross the channel. i so i would suggest there is already a perceived deterrent effect and that has — a perceived deterrent effect and that has been detected by and talked about a _ that has been detected by and talked about a lot this week by my colleagues in the irish parliament and definitely when you have got the possible _ and definitely when you have got the possible party of government god help us— possible party of government god help us saying that they have, they would _ help us saying that they have, they would stop — help us saying that they have, they would stop this policy that does have _ would stop this policy that does have an — would stop this policy that does have an effect and do nothing, maybe 'ust have an effect and do nothing, maybe just an _ have an effect and do nothing, maybe just an amnesty. what is your plan. i just an amnesty. what is your plan. i am _ just an amnesty. what is your plan. i am more — just an amnesty. what is your plan. i am more than happy to set it out. i am more than happy to set it out. i am _ i am more than happy to set it out. i am surprised _

i am more than happy to set it out. i am surprised you _ i am more than happy to set it out. i am surprised you have _ i am more than happy to set it out. i am surprised you have not- i am more than happy to set it out. i am surprised you have not heardl i am surprised you have not heard it, i am surprised you have not heard it. it _ i am surprised you have not heard it. it has _ i am surprised you have not heard it. it has been— i am surprised you have not heard it, it has been said _ i am surprised you have not heard it, it has been said by— i am surprised you have not heard it, it has been said by every- i am surprised you have not heardl it, it has been said by every labour front— it, it has been said by every labour front bencher~ _ it, it has been said by every labour front bencher._ it, it has been said by every labour front bencher. you're going to take them off shore. _ front bencher. you're going to take them off shore. we _ front bencher. you're going to take them off shore. we wouldn't - front bencher. you're going to take them off shore. we wouldn't waste j them off shore. we wouldn't waste that money — them off shore. we wouldn't waste that money on _ them off shore. we wouldn't waste that money on rwanda, _ them off shore. we wouldn't waste that money on rwanda, but - them off shore. we wouldn't waste j that money on rwanda, but plough them off shore. we wouldn't waste i that money on rwanda, but plough it into a _ that money on rwanda, but plough it into a cross _ that money on rwanda, but plough it into a cross boardy _ that money on rwanda, but plough it into a cross boardy police _ that money on rwanda, but plough it into a cross boardy police force. - into a cross boardy police force. you _ into a cross boardy police force. you wouldn't _ into a cross boardy police force. you wouldn't put _ into a cross boardy police force. you wouldn't put them - into a cross boardy police force. you wouldn't put them off- into a cross boardy police force. i you wouldn't put them off shore. into a cross boardy police force. - you wouldn't put them off shore. we would make sure people were processed _ would make sure people were processed by— would make sure people were processed by having - would make sure people were processed by having an - would make sure people were processed by having an extra i processed by having an extra thousand _ processed by having an extra thousand case _ processed by having an extra thousand case workers - processed by having an extra thousand case workers and l processed by having an extra i thousand case workers and we processed by having an extra - thousand case workers and we would have proper— thousand case workers and we would have proper returns— thousand case workers and we would have proper returns agreements, - thousand case workers and we would j have proper returns agreements, the number— have proper returns agreements, the number of— have proper returns agreements, the number of returns _ have proper returns agreements, the number of returns has _ have proper returns agreements, the number of returns has cratered. - have proper returns agreements, the number of returns has cratered. iohnj number of returns has cratered. john curtice on the _ number of returns has cratered. curtice on the policy, what is the likelihood? let curtice on the policy, what is the likelihood?— curtice on the policy, what is the likelihood? ., ,, ., likelihood? let me make two gentle oints. likelihood? let me make two gentle points- one. — likelihood? let me make two gentle points. one, that _ likelihood? let me make two gentle points. one, that there _ likelihood? let me make two gentle points. one, that there is _ likelihood? let me make two gentle points. one, that there is no - points. one, that there is no evidence in the polls that have been conducted in the last seven days that the passage of the rwanda bill has any impact of the standing of the parties, but what is clear if you look over the longer time piece, since last november when the government started to focus on rwanda and asylum seeker, what we have seen is a rise in support for

reform. to be honest i'm not surprised, one thing i have found is people's attitudes to immigration, of those people who voted conservative is unrelated to whether or not they're willing to vote conservative again. there are issues you need to focus on is one the length of the nhs waiting list and two to persuade people that you can run the economy. those are the two things that are hanging around your neck. it is not immigration and it is is not taxation. i neck. it is not immigration and it is is not taxation.— is is not taxation. i agree with john about — is is not taxation. i agree with john about those _ is is not taxation. i agree with john about those priorities - is is not taxation. i agree with | john about those priorities and is is not taxation. i agree with i john about those priorities and i think— john about those priorities and i think my— john about those priorities and i think my prime minister agreed. except— think my prime minister agreed. except you're spending this effort on immigration and tax cuts. brute except you're spending this effort on immigration and tax cuts. we are, when... on immigration and tax cuts. we are, when- -- the — on immigration and tax cuts. we are, when... the unions _ on immigration and tax cuts. we are, when... the unions are _ on immigration and tax cuts. we are, when... the unions are not _ on immigration and tax cuts. we are, when... the unions are not on - when... the unions are not on strike, — when... the unions are not on strike, doing what we can to reduce waiting _

strike, doing what we can to reduce waiting lists in the nhs and inflation is down at 3.2% and the economy— inflation is down at 3.2% and the economy is— inflation is down at 3.2% and the economy is growing. we are able to reward _ economy is growing. we are able to reward people. pick economy is growing. we are able to reward people-— economy is growing. we are able to reward people. pick up what john was sa in: reward people. pick up what john was saying about — reward people. pick up what john was saying about how _ reward people. pick up what john was saying about how migration _ reward people. pick up what john was saying about how migration is - saying about how migration is playing. i saying about how migration is -la inc. ~' ., ., playing. i think the government are u-urasin at playing. i think the government are grasping at this _ playing. i think the government are grasping at this gimmick _ playing. i think the government are grasping at this gimmick and - playing. i think the government are grasping at this gimmick and i - playing. i think the government are| grasping at this gimmick and i don't think the _ grasping at this gimmick and i don't think the public— grasping at this gimmick and i don't think the public are _ grasping at this gimmick and i don't think the public are fooled. - grasping at this gimmick and i don't think the public are fooled. they- think the public are fooled. they know— think the public are fooled. they know it — think the public are fooled. they know it is — think the public are fooled. they know it is a _ think the public are fooled. they know it is a con. _ think the public are fooled. they know it is a con. it— think the public are fooled. they know it is a con. it is— think the public are fooled. they know it is a con. it is only- think the public are fooled. they know it is a con. it is only goingi know it is a con. it is only going to cover— know it is a con. it is only going to cover a — know it is a con. it is only going to cover a tiny— know it is a con. it is only going to cover a tiny number- know it is a con. it is only going to cover a tiny number of- know it is a con. it is only goingl to cover a tiny number of people know it is a con. it is only going - to cover a tiny number of people and they're _ to cover a tiny number of people and they're concerned _ to cover a tiny number of people and they're concerned at the _ to cover a tiny number of people and they're concerned at the failures - to cover a tiny number of people and they're concerned at the failures of i they're concerned at the failures of they're concerned at the failures of the conservative _ they're concerned at the failures of the conservative government. - they're concerned at the failures of the conservative government. i- they're concerned at the failures of i the conservative government. i have knocked _ the conservative government. i have knocked on _ the conservative government. i have knocked on many _ the conservative government. i have knocked on many doors, _ the conservative government. i have knocked on many doors, people - the conservative government. i have knocked on many doors, people are| knocked on many doors, people are fed up— knocked on many doors, people are fed up with — knocked on many doors, people are fed up with the _ knocked on many doors, people are fed up with the lack _ knocked on many doors, people are fed up with the lack of _ knocked on many doors, people are fed up with the lack of action - knocked on many doors, people are fed up with the lack of action on - fed up with the lack of action on the cost—of—living _ fed up with the lack of action on the cost—of—living and _ fed up with the lack of action on the cost—of—living and the - fed up with the lack of action on the cost—of—living and the nhsi fed up with the lack of action on i the cost—of—living and the nhs not working _ the cost—of—living and the nhs not working for— the cost—of—living and the nhs not working for them, _ the cost—of—living and the nhs not working for them, public— the cost—of—living and the nhs not. working for them, public services... we have _ working for them, public services... we have to — working for them, public services... we have to leave _ working for them, public services... we have to leave it _ working for them, public services... we have to leave it there. _ working for them, public services... we have to leave it there. thank - working for them, public services... | we have to leave it there. thank you very much indeed. a reminder the bbc�*s election programme is warming up, as you can see. join them from 11.40pm on bbc one. the home office says it's closed 150

asylum seekers' hotels as it seeks to move them to "alternative accomodation" including the bibby stockholm barge. with the prospect of flights to rwanda beginning soon, many of the migrants fear that will be their next destination. newsnight�*s yasminara khan was in south east london very early this morning as government contractors came to a hotel to move on ayslum seekers to the barge. protestors were out in force and tensions were high. newsnight has obtained evidence of an incidence of strong and discriminatory language, which is in the upcoming report and which has resulted in an arrest. yas is here — what happened? as you said, our team was there this morning and there were already protesters there trying to stop the bus from take asylum seekers from this hotel. we got there early. there were already protesters forming a ring around the coach to stop the coach. ads,

forming a ring around the coach to stop the coach.— stop the coach. a lot of 'ostling? yes there were h stop the coach. a lot of jostling? yes there were tensions - stop the coach. a lot of jostling? | yes there were tensions between stop the coach. a lot of jostling? - yes there were tensions between the hotel staff and the coach company. this got heated and during this incident, this time that the incident, this time that the incident happened with offensive language was used. you can can see how that might have happened, it was really, the tensions were getting high. even that early in the morning. throughout the day, there were more violent protests, as you will see from my package, where they prevented the bus from leaving. a bus that was due to be transporting asylum seekers from a hotel in peckham to the government's accommodation on the bibby stockholm in dorset finally leaves — hours behind schedule. the confrontation with police escalated throughout the day to a point where the coach departed without a single asylum seeker on board. similar operations have reportedly taken place in other parts of london and margate last week.

sa itte saitte loud, saitte clear... early this morning, things began more calmly, but it soon boiled over. there was friction between protesters and government staff transferring asylum seekers to the coach. alex is a prominent member of one of the groups protesting today. things started to get heated and he was subject to racial abuse from one member of staff from the coach. you lock black bastard. we obtained this footage, but are unable to verify what happened in the run up. i was shocked really to be honest. i was taken aback and i was particularly targeted and it was really, it says a lot about where things are at. i met nick from afghanistan yesterday. he received a letter saying that he had to leave the hotel and was being moved on to bibby stockholm. tell me what would happen if you went back to afghanistan? oh, it's dangerous for me. because i have had some activities

online, i will not go into detail, because it is still dangerous. but i have had some activities online about the whole regime now in afghanistan about the women and education and the freedom of speech. so, it's very dangerous for me if i go back and the taliban knows about it. i am kind of afraid this is the next step for us after getting shipped to bibby stockholm, maybe the next step is rwanda bill and frightens me. for organisations like the lewisham donation hub, they see asylum seekers as friends, lawrence who runs the charity, tells me they volunteer here frequently. and their loss will leave a huge hole in the community. they are here every day when we put in those i emergency requests for help. they're always - the ones that respond. their ability to - deliver help for all hours and all days is - unmatched and we can't really understand why the _ home office has not recognised the impact to our service - when the home office itself

is referring people to us. i the metropolitan police told us a number of their officers were assaulted and 45 people were arrested. including one for a racially aggravated public order offence. that person was not part of the protest. the government has committed to reducing the reliance on hotels in housing asylum seekers, due to the huge cost. but this has come with its challenges. if it really happens and we do see large numbers of migrants being sent to rwanda, i think it will kick off even more. and to be honest i think this could be, immigration the no1 factor in the general election when it happens. but it's outrageous that so many police officers and immigration enforcement officers should be dictated to by a wild mob of people. as the protests continue, we catch up with nik, who is

watching from the sidelines. yes, i have to leave the hotel any how. that is what they say. today is the last today. by the end of the day i should not be in the hotel. do you know what you're going to do? no. i have no idea. let's hope something good comes out of this, but i've no idea what is going to happen. as the government comes under more pressure to stop the small boats and deal with with the asylum issue and as the opposition to its rwanda policy builds, could scenes like this be played out across the country in the run up to the election? what is the government's response? the government told us that the metropolitan police are investigating the incident with alex that we heard about. and they're

unable to comment. but they expect the highest standards from their contractors. they told us accommodation is allocated on a no choice basis and asylum seekers can make representations if they believe they're unsuitable to be moved to they're unsuitable to be moved to the bibby stockholm. the government wants to put asylum seekers on flights to rwanda in the coming months, but that might prove difficult, because people from migrant organisations have told us they're determined to stop this happening, stop people being moved. so we could see more scenes like we have today in the coming months. thank you. there were myriad elections in england and wales today, but in scotland there may soon be a coronation. no sooner had john swinney, the man who was depute first minister of scotland 20 years ago, thrown his hat in the ring to suceed the outgoing snp first minister, humza yousef, than kate forbes, his most likely challenger, endorsed him. so, barring any other comers, john swinney, will be

first minister of scotland. he joins us now from his home in perth. thank you forjoining us. last year, you told nicola sturgeon's podcast that you have been trying to leave government every day since 2016. you said most recently that you wanted to see the party have fresh ideas and fresh faces. by your own admission you're yesterday's man? no, what i have done today is recognised and i have been can dit about this that the snp faces difficulty and what it needs to do to address that difficulty is to have an experienced and skilled leader who frankly knows the way to get out of some of these difficulties. that is what i offer the snp, a path way to strengthen the snp, a path way to strengthen the party, to bring the party together, to unite the party behind our election cam mains and behind —— campaigns and behind the arguments for independence. i think i command

the trust and confidence of people to do that. ~ ., i. �* , to do that. what you're ever sizing -- emphasising — to do that. what you're ever sizing -- emphasising is _ to do that. what you're ever sizing -- emphasising is to _ to do that. what you're ever sizing -- emphasising is to bring - to do that. what you're ever sizing -- emphasising is to bring the - —— emphasising is to bring the party, but what you have done is you have accepted the support of kate forbes in return you said she is going to play a big part in the government. forsome going to play a big part in the government. for some and indeed for your relationship with the greens particularly, she is a divisive figure. for example, you know, you are committed to bringing forward a bill banning gay conversion therapy, how could she be in your government if she refuses to ban gay conversion therapy. we know in the past she has said she doesn't believe people shob forced into it, but if people wished to undertake it she would back that. that won't square with the green party, with whom you want to make a new alliance. i5

party, with whom you want to make a new alliance. is a party, with whom you want to make a new alliance-— new alliance. is a terrible description _ new alliance. is a terrible description of _ new alliance. is a terrible description of kate - new alliance. is a terrible i description of kate forbes. new alliance. is a terrible - description of kate forbes. there is multiple facts that are wrong in that. you said i was deputy first minister 20 years ago. i was deputy first minister a year ago. you put a point about the government is not pursuing, any government i lead will not the green party. i have no idea where you have got that from. i said there will be no return to the bute house agreement. we left that agreement for a host of reasons. kate forbes has a contribution to make to the national life of scotland in a diverse, broadly based snp that brings people together. that is what my leadership is about, bringing people together and ensuring that the party can be cohesive and make strong arguments about the performance of the snp government in improving the lives of people in scotland and why scotland

should be an independent country. we are paying a terrible price in scotland, because of the cost—of—living crisis and the the tory brexit. both are impoepzed by westminster and a government we never voted for that is imposing damage on people in scotland and i want people in scotland to have confidence in independence. just to be clear, i wasn't suggesting they would be a new arrangement. you are going to govern as a minority government? that arrangement. you are going to govern as a minority government?— as a minority government? that is correct. as a minority government? that is correct- we _ as a minority government? that is correct. we will _ as a minority government? that is correct. we will have _ as a minority government? that is correct. we will have to _ as a minority government? that is correct. we will have to find - as a minority government? that is correct. we will have to find on i as a minority government? that is correct. we will have to find on an j correct. we will have to find on an issue by issue basis agreement with other political parties to secure agreement in the government. but who is auoin to agreement in the government. but who is going to support _ agreement in the government. but who is going to support you? _ agreement in the government. but who is going to support you? what - agreement in the government. but who is going to support you? what if - is going to support you? what if consistently you don't get that. there are five... i consistently you don't get that. there are five. . ._ consistently you don't get that. there are five... i don't want to interrupt. _ there are five... i don't want to interrupt. but — there are five... i don't want to interrupt, but we _ there are five... i don't want to interrupt, but we don't - there are five... i don't want to interrupt, but we don't have i there are five... i don't want to interrupt, but we don't have a i there are five... i don't want to i interrupt, but we don't have a lot of time. you consistently need

support to get legislation through. they may exact a very heavy price and you might not get that through. in minority governments before, i managed to find agreements with the conservative party, with the labour party, with the liberals, with the greens, with my late colleague mr mcdonald who was a fine member of parliament. we managed to construct alliances issue by issue with patience and courtesy. those are characteristics i have got in abundance, and i know that kate forbes will contribute significantly to that because she has got the same characteristics of patience and courtesy in the way that she goes about her business, so i am very optimistic we can run a successful and effective minority government. but what minority government also does is it puts pressure on the opposition parties, because if the opposition parties, because if the opposition play games and we can't get a budget through parliament, teachers can't get paid. hospital

staff can't operate. they can't get their salaries. we can't run transport systems. so there can't be any games when it comes to minority government. everyone has got to act responsibly. the government under my leadership will certainly act responsibility, but that is on the opposition as well. so responsibility, but that is on the opposition as well.— responsibility, but that is on the opposition as well. so let's look at the future. — opposition as well. so let's look at the future, because _ opposition as well. so let's look at the future, because the _ opposition as well. so let's look at the future, because the latest - the future, because the latest opinion polls put labour and the snp neck and neck, and john curtice said that that would translate in a general election to 28 seats to labour, 18 for the snp. you would be presiding over an snp collapse. what presiding over an snp collapse. what i presiding over an snp collapse. what i recognise. — presiding over an snp collapse. what i recognise. and _ presiding over an snp collapse. what i recognise, and i— presiding over an snp collapse. what i recognise, and i was _ presiding over an snp collapse. transit i recognise, and i was really candid about this today, is that the snp is in a difficult place, so why i have entered the leadership is to rebuild the party, and when i look at some of the other polling that has come out this week, for example people were asked in scotland who they thought would make the best first minister, and i topped that poll. i was closely followed by my colleague kate forbes. we were significantly ahead of the labour leader in

scotland, and miles ahead of the unpopular leader douglas ross. so that gives me optimism that the leadership of the government in scotland, if i'm successful in becoming leader of the snp in the course of the next few weeks, can engage with the people of scotland, build our support and ensure that we can be a strong and successful political party. can be a strong and successful political party-— can be a strong and successful political party. can be a strong and successful olitical -a . ., , .,, political party. there are people in our -a political party. there are people in your party that _ political party. there are people in your party that want _ political party. there are people in your party that want to _ political party. there are people in your party that want to go - political party. there are people in your party that want to go hell- political party. there are people in your party that want to go hell for| your party that want to go hell for leather for independence. your party that want to go hell for leatherfor independence. humza leather for independence. humza yousaf leatherfor independence. humza yousaf said independence is frustratingly close. is that your view? i frustratingly close. is that your view? .. frustratingly close. is that your view? ~ , , ., view? i think support for independence _ view? i think support for independence is - view? i think support for| independence is stronger view? i think support for - independence is stronger today view? i think support for _ independence is stronger today than it was in 2014, so that is a point the opinion polling consistently shows, it is about 50—50 just now, but that is not enough in my opinion, so therefore i don't accept that independence is frustratingly close. i think we have to win more hearts and minds behind independence, which is why i want us

to engage in that persuasion exercise with people in scotland, because we will never get to independence unless we build levels of support for independence, so that people can see that independence is the compelling proposition that will protect scotland from the folly of the tory brexit or the westminster imposed cost of living crisis, and thatis imposed cost of living crisis, and that is the way out of all of this for scotland, to give us a parliament with all of the normal powers of independence, to enable us to be able to chart our own course. i'm going straight back to nick there, that wasjohn swinney. there, that was john swinney. interestingly he took a decidedly different route from humza yousaf and said, we are not frustratingly close in the uk to scottish independence at all. absolutely, and a fascinating insight to howjohn swinney will govern if as expected he becomes first minister next week. he is of course the maestro of running a minority administration, the cabinet

secretary finance in alex salmond's first government, and this time clearly he is going to do it with the scottish greens support. it won't be formal, it won't be the bute house agreement, that is not happening any more, but clearly there will be an understanding, because scottish greens do not want to bring this government down. equally there needs to be some language and some policy meet for kate forbes who is of course a social and fiscal conservative for her to get behind it.— her to get behind it. nick, thank ou ve her to get behind it. nick, thank you very much- _ i'm joined now in the studio by former advisor to labour, soon—to—be baroness ayesha hazarika and by luke tryl of the polling and research group, more in common. first of all, what did you make of whatjohn swinney was saying? i do what john swinney was saying? i do think he has — what john swinney was saying? i do think he has a _ whatjohn swinney was saying? i do think he has a savvy choice for the snp now — think he has a savvy choice for the snp now i— think he has a savvy choice for the snp now. i think it was interesting to say— snp now. i think it was interesting to say today to see kate forbes saying — to say today to see kate forbes saying that she would drop out and would _ saying that she would drop out and would serve underjohn swinney, because — would serve underjohn swinney, because the snp is facing a very

difficult — because the snp is facing a very difficult time ahead, particularly in the _ difficult time ahead, particularly in the run—up to this general election. _ in the run—up to this general election, so i think anybody who wants— election, so i think anybody who wants to — election, so i think anybody who wants to have a long—term future leading _ wants to have a long—term future leading the snp is probably wise to sit this— leading the snp is probably wise to sit this out, but be a big figure in the snp. — sit this out, but be a big figure in the snp, and kate forbes, whatever you think— the snp, and kate forbes, whatever you think of— the snp, and kate forbes, whatever you think of her politics, whatever you think of her politics, whatever you think— you think of her politics, whatever you think of— you think of her politics, whatever you think of her politics, whatever you think of her face or whatever, she is— you think of her face or whatever, she is very— you think of her face or whatever, she is very popular amongst a section— she is very popular amongst a section of— she is very popular amongst a section of the base of the snp, and the membership of the snp. but as you alluded to, i think the greens would _ you alluded to, i think the greens would have — you alluded to, i think the greens would have had trouble working with her, would have had trouble working with her. and _ would have had trouble working with her. and i_ would have had trouble working with her, and i thinkjohn swinney will provide _ her, and i thinkjohn swinney will provide a — her, and i thinkjohn swinney will provide a period of calm, not a massively— provide a period of calm, not a massively exciting period but a period — massively exciting period but a period of— massively exciting period but a period of calm, probably. what you think of the — period of calm, probably. what you think of the idea, _ period of calm, probably. what you think of the idea, luke, _ period of calm, probably. what you think of the idea, luke, of - period of calm, probably. what you think of the idea, luke, of a - think of the idea, luke, of a coronation rather than a contest? i think it is a real lucky break for the snp, because if you look back at that last contest between humza yousaf and kate forbes, it got really personal, really nasty. we ran focus groups throughout that contest are one of the things we found is that it was putting off snp

voters. 0ne voter described it to me as a bin fire of a contest, and that was the mood, so i think having duct that contest, it puts him in a stronger position, asjohn swinney said in the interview with you. they really have to focus on presenting a united front now, and i think not having that contest allows them to do that. �* ., , ., ~' having that contest allows them to do that. �* ., , ., ~ ., do that. and do you think that the socially conservative _ do that. and do you think that the socially conservative side - do that. and do you think that the socially conservative side of - do that. and do you think that the socially conservative side of kate l socially conservative side of kate forbes will just socially conservative side of kate forbes willjust be swept away? i think it would have been difficult for kate forbes to take over as leader, not least because in scotland in particular there was the danger of the snp losing votes to progressive parties, to the greens but also to scottish labour as well, but also to scottish labour as well, but i think having a cabinet position in the scottish government i think is different, i don't think that will make a difference. i think havin: that will make a difference. i think having gone _ that will make a difference. i think having gone through _ that will make a difference. i think having gone through all _ that will make a difference. i think having gone through all the - that will make a difference. i think| having gone through all the turmoil of the _ having gone through all the turmoil of the gender legislation which arguably was a contributing factor to nicola — arguably was a contributing factor to nicola sturgeon resigning, there

is so much — to nicola sturgeon resigning, there is so much controversy over this hate _ is so much controversy over this hate speech legislation. it is likely— hate speech legislation. it is likely that any snp government of the future is probably going to try and swerve those social policy issues. — and swerve those social policy issues, and what was really interesting isjohn swinney issues, and what was really interesting is john swinney saying that independence is not within reach _ that independence is not within reach right now. independence is remaining — reach right now. independence is remaining very high, the support. there _ remaining very high, the support. there is— remaining very high, the support. there is an — remaining very high, the support. there is an interesting dilemma, isn't it? independence of what remains high, but the snp support is dropping. bud remains high, but the snp support is dro inc. �* .. remains high, but the snp support is dronina. �* ~ ., remains high, but the snp support is dronina.�* .. . . dropping. and i think that is because how _ dropping. and i think that is because how you _ dropping. and i think that is because how you define - dropping. and i think that is - because how you define yourself as no change — because how you define yourself as no change politically in scotland. it no change politically in scotland. it used _ no change politically in scotland. it used to — no change politically in scotland. it used to be a bit like before brexit— it used to be a bit like before brexit you politically define yourself whether you were a leave or remain. _ yourself whether you were a leave or remain, whether you want it independence or you were unionist, but i independence or you were unionist, but i think— independence or you were unionist, but i think now a lot of people in scotland — but i think now a lot of people in scotland might have different views on independence, but they do care about— on independence, but they do care about the — on independence, but they do care about the state of the health service. _ about the state of the health service, they care about crime and public— service, they care about crime and public services.— public services. which brings us back to vote _ public services. which brings us back to vote tonight, _ public services. which brings us back to vote tonight, obviously | back to vote tonight, obviously there were no votes in scotland today, but it brings us back to the possibility that nick was alluding to among a certain group of

conservative mps that if it looks very bad for rishi sunak, there would be some kind of cabal at the weekend. the would be some kind of cabal at the weekend. . . weekend. the interesting thing is when ou weekend. the interesting thing is when you speak— weekend. the interesting thing is when you speak to _ weekend. the interesting thing is when you speak to the _ weekend. the interesting thing is when you speak to the public, i weekend. the interesting thing is. when you speak to the public, there is this big appetite for change, people want the election to come, but they don't want that change to come in the form of another tory leadership contest, and i think the dangerfor the leadership contest, and i think the danger for the conservatives, we know the thing which has really damage them, is this sense that they are addicted to chaos, and the idea of another contest taking place over the summer, i think would play very badly. i actually think the past few weeks, the conservatives have shown that they actually have a forward—looking programme. they have talked about benefits, they've passed the rwanda legislation. but it is pretty fraught tonight. i - it is pretty fraught tonight. i think one of the problem is that rishi sunak had as it looked like he wasn't governing, and that is what people would say. i never see him, he looks weak. and so they have got a bit more on the front, a bit more

red meat for those backbenchers. find